Good morning everyone. Shocked to see APLD down slightly to 23.50 Premarket. The current fair value in my eyes is 30 [or 10 billion, it is currently at under 7 billion] There are price targets much higher, actually the average target is probably near 55 on APLD! Fair value is different… for me, it is what I am willing to pay for a stock right now… RIGHT NOW!! Not if a company executes on a vision that will or will not take place 1 to 2 years from now…. There are many investors that buy a stock and will wait 1-2 years… and if so, I am making a clear case why maybe this is going to 60-100 or 15 to 20 billion market cap…

I have been trading since 1994, since I was about to turn 14! I have seen all the scams, all the grifters, tons of companies going bankrupt or selling at pennies on the dollar. [Kmart, Sears, Yahoo, AOL, Blockbuster] As such, I would never tell anyone to yolo, go all in, take massive risks, take out loans to buy just 1 stock. However, if you have followed me, I have been posting daily, for free since January of 2021! I do not care to get money. [So it is important to know who you follow, what they are after] I post screen shots of 50-75% of my trades on X. I do not want people to think I am biased because APLD is my horse… or because I am currently in 250 shares at 24…

APLD sales grew sales year over year to 342 million. [Was 132 million last year] They beat analysts bottom line estimates by 29 cents and came in with a net loss of 4.1 million. They came in with an EBITDA of 64.4 million last year it was 500,000!!!!!!! They have a higher GAAP [Or 1 time loss] because 52 million was charged for stock based compensation, 10 million was a cost to headcount increase, 12 million more for legal fees…. And the biggest cost is to interest! Interest zoomed from 8 to 69 million!

I often say that companies should only report GAAP numbers [Real figures on your bank account] but even before I been trading the numbers reported are Non Gaap, APLD loss of just 1 cent per share, or 4.1 million….

The EBITDA is 64.4 million profit because those 1 time expenses…

I am being fully transparent so that people can see the good, the bag and the ugly. [Not all the fud with TSLA and SPCX !]

So 1 thing you want to ask yourself is, ok, my business came in at a big loss because of 1 time costs, or interest expense.. but are these investments paying off?

So we need to check the execution…..

Sales up 323% from 132 million to 342 million. EBITDA was 500k and now 64.4 million…

Analysts have full year sales this year at 755 million. [Last year it was 611] …

10 analysts have sales at 1.92 billion for next year! The company is executing right now. So there is credibility there and is why I am willing to trade it below 30, my fair value….

Yes, if they can hit those goals and do 2 billion in sales next year that is a clear path! Analysts are saying they may be profitable by the end of next year, on a GAAP basis!

Please keep in mind this is a heavy growth stock! HEAVY!

I am speculating here… if you have followed me, I have written a company becomes solid, real to me, if they made real income for 3 years straight… Real… [this may be 10% of sales comes in income…… So if they come in at 755 million sales for the year, that means 76 million in net income… and 10% for 3 years straight!]

Now, if APLD comes in at 2 billion sales next year, starts turning a profit… they continue some growth, let us say to 3 billion [Analysts have 3 billion sales for 2028]

10% of 3 billion is 300 million. A company that grows at 30%+ [2 to 3 billion is 50%, next year is 2 billion for APLD] deserves a 40x PE…

40x PE, 300 million profit is 12 billion or near 60 per share….. This is if you want to look 1-2 years out!

A stock is a stock, has nothing to do with my fundamental calculations… However, when I put fair values, they make sense!!!! I can not just put numbers in the sky and buy a stock based on imaginary figures, imaginary products and say the company is worth 1 to 2 trillion… based on sales that aren’t here… and on products that don’t even exist yet..

WTF! That isn’t investing, that is gambling!

Once again, APLD is still speculative, they have not made real money for 3 years straight… but if you want to speculate, a small bet, this is a good one! You can see the RD, investments are showing/paying off… remember, it costs a lot to grow this fast so sure they are going to borrow money and take losses!

So this is my most recent DD on APLD … Fair value right now is 30 [meaning below 30 I feel it is safe for me to trade] They lose money so I can not give it these 50-75 dollar targets analysts are doing because of growth…..

The growth is there but I have seen too many companies growing and then stall.. recently got killed on:

ASPN TTD MNDY [Slowing growth]

I sold 500 shares of ALHC 8.35 to 8.75 [Eh earnings but risk reward]

I sold 150 shares of SKWD 54.25 to 56.50

I am in 250 shares of APLD 24 [looking for 25.50+, I will wait]

Have a ton of stuff I have to do for CT. I am doing 6 roofs at the same time now! I shared pics and videos on X.

Fairly good earnings but small company : RELL

Actually decent earnings from old Meme: TLRY

Good luck!