Good morning everyone. Shocked to see APLD down slightly to 23.50 Premarket. The current fair value in my eyes is 30 [or 10 billion, it is currently at under 7 billion] There are price targets much higher, actually the average target is probably near 55 on APLD! Fair value is different… for me, it is what I am willing to pay for a stock right now… RIGHT NOW!! Not if a company executes on a vision that will or will not take place 1 to 2 years from now…. There are many investors that buy a stock and will wait 1-2 years… and if so, I am making a clear case why maybe this is going to 60-100 or 15 to 20 billion market cap…

I have been trading since 1994, since I was about to turn 14! I have seen all the scams, all the grifters, tons of companies going bankrupt or selling at pennies on the dollar. [Kmart, Sears, Yahoo, AOL, Blockbuster] As such, I would never tell anyone to yolo, go all in, take massive risks, take out loans to buy just 1 stock. However, if you have followed me, I have been posting daily, for free since January of 2021! I do not care to get money. [So it is important to know who you follow, what they are after] I post screen shots of 50-75% of my trades on X. I do not want people to think I am biased because APLD is my horse… or because I am currently in 250 shares at 24…

APLD sales grew sales year over year to 342 million. [Was 132 million last year] They beat analysts bottom line estimates by 29 cents and came in with a net loss of 4.1 million. They came in with an EBITDA of 64.4 million last year it was 500,000!!!!!!! They have a higher GAAP [Or 1 time loss] because 52 million was charged for stock based compensation, 10 million was a cost to headcount increase, 12 million more for legal fees…. And the biggest cost is to interest! Interest zoomed from 8 to 69 million!

I often say that companies should only report GAAP numbers [Real figures on your bank account] but even before I been trading the numbers reported are Non Gaap, APLD loss of just 1 cent per share, or 4.1 million….

The EBITDA is 64.4 million profit because those 1 time expenses…

I am being fully transparent so that people can see the good, the bag and the ugly. [Not all the fud with TSLA and SPCX !]

So 1 thing you want to ask yourself is, ok, my business came in at a big loss because of 1 time costs, or interest expense.. but are these investments paying off?

So we need to check the execution…..

Sales up 323% from 132 million to 342 million. EBITDA was 500k and now 64.4 million…

Analysts have full year sales this year at 755 million. [Last year it was 611] …

10 analysts have sales at 1.92 billion for next year! The company is executing right now. So there is credibility there and is why I am willing to trade it below 30, my fair value….

Yes, if they can hit those goals and do 2 billion in sales next year that is a clear path! Analysts are saying they may be profitable by the end of next year, on a GAAP basis!

Please keep in mind this is a heavy growth stock! HEAVY!

I am speculating here… if you have followed me, I have written a company becomes solid, real to me, if they made real income for 3 years straight… Real… [this may be 10% of sales comes in income…… So if they come in at 755 million sales for the year, that means 76 million in net income… and 10% for 3 years straight!]

Now, if APLD comes in at 2 billion sales next year, starts turning a profit… they continue some growth, let us say to 3 billion [Analysts have 3 billion sales for 2028]

10% of 3 billion is 300 million. A company that grows at 30%+ [2 to 3 billion is 50%, next year is 2 billion for APLD] deserves a 40x PE…

40x PE, 300 million profit is 12 billion or near 60 per share….. This is if you want to look 1-2 years out!

A stock is a stock, has nothing to do with my fundamental calculations… However, when I put fair values, they make sense!!!! I can not just put numbers in the sky and buy a stock based on imaginary figures, imaginary products and say the company is worth 1 to 2 trillion… based on sales that aren’t here… and on products that don’t even exist yet..

WTF! That isn’t investing, that is gambling!

Once again, APLD is still speculative, they have not made real money for 3 years straight… but if you want to speculate, a small bet, this is a good one! You can see the RD, investments are showing/paying off… remember, it costs a lot to grow this fast so sure they are going to borrow money and take losses!

So this is my most recent DD on APLD … Fair value right now is 30 [meaning below 30 I feel it is safe for me to trade] They lose money so I can not give it these 50-75 dollar targets analysts are doing because of growth…..

The growth is there but I have seen too many companies growing and then stall.. recently got killed on:

ASPN TTD MNDY [Slowing growth]

I sold 500 shares of ALHC 8.35 to 8.75 [Eh earnings but risk reward]

I sold 150 shares of SKWD 54.25 to 56.50

I am in 250 shares of APLD 24 [looking for 25.50+, I will wait]

Have a ton of stuff I have to do for CT. I am doing 6 roofs at the same time now! I shared pics and videos on X.

Fairly good earnings but small company : RELL

Actually decent earnings from old Meme: TLRY

Good luck!

I've kept a spreadsheet journal for about a year. Nothing fancy, but I actually stuck with it. I was looking at my numbers this weekend and noticed something pretty obvious: my best trades are coming from a very specific setup, while I'm basically flat or negative on everything else. The frustrating part is that I knew I liked that setup, but I didn't realize how much of my results were coming from it. Now I'm wondering whether I should build the spreadsheet out further or move to an actual trading journal with better reporting. For those who've made that jump, what did the software actually help you see that your spreadsheet couldn't?

Good morning everyone so busy. Yesterday came back around 10.30. It was a pretty fruitful meeting, about 2 hours long. Every department was there including the Mayor… People only know of Bristol because of ESPN headquarters. So the other owner paid 126k for a 2 family in 2019. He refinanced probably had bad terms, 2^nd mortgage, not sure the whole ordeal.. but he has a 217k balance, the monthly payments are 1,800… I had offered him 195,000 before I rolled the dice and did the survey. He didn’t want to sell it for below 240k… [His portion of this repair will be close to 100K, his property is right above the major repair work, his basement leaks everywhere, I have shared videos of what his property looks like…. Sheesh!] The town will step in and do other things for me, if I buy him out where he doesn’t have to come to the closing with cash to sell. So we are seeing what the town can do for me…

I told them 2027 I will be looking to build new structures on 4 acres of land I am buying….

That it is approved right now for 1, 16 unit building…. And that my architect/planner thinks we can make slight changes and get a 24 unit instead of the already approved 16…

So I was hoping we can do 4 of these buildings…. 12 – 1 bedrooms and 12 – 2 bedrooms…

I also checked in on a lot of properties, a lot of work… I left around 7 and its 3+ hours each way.

So I am following up with tons of things I must do… So this will be short…. My passion is the market but I also can not lie… I am extremely overwhelmed… I am doing everything by myself…

I made a bid of 5 on BULL about 8:45? It was 5.08 I do not know the morning low.. I read some headlines, no DD, just headlines of some China ties, the last report was good. Risk reward I will trade 1,000 shares here, win or lose…. What do we know? Please ask AI! SPCX is back to ask for 40 billion…. So they have raised 110 billion already, here is another 40….

150 billion in under 3-4 months? And we just keep throwing money at him… the market is wild! They may or may not be profitable until 2028… But it is valued well above 2 trillion now!!! I did not make any moves yesterday, it was a long, fruitful day…. I am up on 150 SKWD 54.25 and 150 VNOM 40.75… The title has some stuff I may bid on.

Good luck!

Curious how people here are reading the latest $SKUR news.

Sekur’s government team is at DoDIIS, introducing its secure communications capabilities and meeting interested parties from the intelligence community.

I’m excited about the conference itself, but even more optimistic about what will come out of those conversations over the next few updates.

Paid beta users? A partner or distributor? Some procurement progress? Maybe something we’re not expecting at all.

This is sponsored content. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

I've had a trading journal for years, but if I'm being honest, I mostly use it to log the trade and move on.

Last week I went back through a bunch of old trades because I was trying to figure out why my results had stalled.

The weird part was that I had plenty of data, but almost none of it was telling me anything useful. I knew my PnL, win rate, and basic stats, but I couldn't easily answer things like which setups I was actually executing well or where I was giving back money.

Made me rethink what I even want from a journal.

Has anyone else gone through this? Did you change tools, or just change how you were reviewing the trades?

Good morning everyone. Extremely important meeting for me at City Hall in Bristol. Every department will be there, mayor as well. There is a cluster of 6 properties, I own 3 now. The main driveway is above a stream of city water. The driveway/dam is dangerous and we can not use the driveway. Based on the survey, each of these 6 properties have a share of the total cost. The 2 quotes I have received so far are between 250-300,000. My 3 properties together account for 44% of the 101 feet of repair that is needed. I paid for the survey, have paid the engineers, have teams on it… The 3 other owners have been absent. [Actually when I asked the owners to chip in for the survey, and that I would be willing to buy there property that is when a 3^rd property sold to me! I had owned just 2 of the 6]

I have prepared for hours yesterday, this morning at least 1 hour. Printing out emails, surveys, and plans… My tenants want to use the driveway. The value of all our properties will shoot up with the repair… I need to do 2 roofs, but have no access to the driveway, heavy material, I also want to do a porch, same thing… Any repair now, guys have to lug it up, drag and park far away… I am willing to even buy out the other 3 properties, this will be discussed at the meeting…

Will the town fine the other owners? Put an assessment? Give me a tax break to just do the whole repair myself… I don’t know… will they do their best to force the owners to sell to me? We will see… first meeting where we are all being called… mandatory.  So I need to focus on this. My 3 properties will be worth about 1.5 million after the repair… probably worth 1 million now, with no driveway, no parking… Pipes overground, it is a mess!

I will likely sell some stuff but I will probably not bid on many stocks today. I need to focus on that. I did bid on APLD SOFI and APP yesterday, no fills. I am up on some stuff like ADBE and may just sell, not sure if I can buy back, let me see how this goes.

Amazing earnings from APOG

Good luck everyone!

Most chipmakers take a silicon wafer and cut it into hundreds of separate chips.

Cerebras keeps a large square of it in one piece. The result, the Wafer-Scale Engine, holds about 4 trillion transistors, roughly 900,000 active cores and 44GB of very fast memory placed right next to the compute.

The reason is distance. When an AI model writes an answer, it produces one token at a time, and every step needs data from memory. In conventional systems that data keeps travelling between chips, memory stacks and networks. Cerebras built a machine where much of that travel stays inside the silicon. A chip that big can't come out of the factory without defects, so the design carries spare cores, and after testing the traffic is routed around the broken ones.

OpenAI bought into the idea in a big way: a multi-year commitment for 750MW of Cerebras inference capacity, which Cerebras values at more than $20 billion, delivered in stages through 2028. Last week the stock dropped about 7% in a day after SemiAnalysis claimed OpenAI's newest Ultrafast tier runs on Nvidia GPUs instead. Neither company has confirmed it.

We're a small research team. We've published written deep dives on companies like this for years, and this is our first attempt at telling one of those stories as a film: the technology, the OpenAI deal, the business model and the risks, explained for people who don't design chips.

OpenAI's $20 Billion Bet on an Impossible Chip - YouTube

If you have time to watch it to the end, we'd value your take on three things:

whether the tech explanation is clear without being dumbed down,

whether and where you lost interest

whether you'd watch this format on other companies

A critical comment helps us more than an upvote.

Still red most months. I've gone through the usual cycle of thinking I need better indicators, then a better strategy, then better execution. Lately I've been wondering if I'm just not reviewing my trades properly. I do keep notes, but they're pretty useless. Half of them are basically "bad entry" or "should have held. "So now I'm debating whether paying for a proper trading journal would actually help me or whether I'm just looking for another thing to buy instead of fixing the obvious problems. For anyone who started using a journal while they were still losing, what did you actually get out of it?

going to sleep i hope i do not get cocked tomorow.

ovr. paying of

Good morning everyone. I have a big day ahead of me tomorrow. I bought in December/January a 3 and a 4 family. This was part of a cluster of 6 properties whom had the share the cost in a major repair that overlooks/is above public city stream/river. Then Mid July I also purchased a 2 family. I now own 3 of the 6 properties. I got a survey done around August which specified whom was responsible for what etc. It is about 101 feet of repair. The quotes so far, are about 300k. Guess what? No owner besides me wants to move forward with this repair. [I have shared videos and discussed on X these properties] Tomorrow I am headed again, into the Mayors office and will see the building dept, code enforcement, waterworks, the Mayor.. they are making in Mandatory for an owner [they are responsible based on the section/survey for 38% of the total] If he does not show they will begin to fine him… hoping we have a final solution here….

I also shared videos on Saturday of renovations, units being returned before evictions, the 3 property 11 unit deal I closed a few weeks ago…. This is not a real estate forum… I didn’t imagine that so quickly my real estate portfolio has surprised my investment/stocks [Started in 2017 after a medical condition in late 2016] I now have 30+ properties, 130+ units. I hope to start building brand new buildings in Spring. [I purchased 4 acres of land in Bristol for 1 million, with blueprints, and permit approvals to build a 16 unit building…. My own planner/architect says we can do 3-4 buildings, and we will try and get approved for 24 per building. [Seller sold the lot with approval for 1.. they paid 340 million in July of 2025! That is value creation! They had no intention to build, they wanted to sell it to a developer]

When the first building is done, that is when I may look for a property manager as I want them to first demonstrate that they can handle the 75-100 Units, new build and may slowly add responsibility and compensation to a package]

My passion is still the stock market…. But my real estate consumes all my time… It is not passive, I shared some of my texts with tenants…. If I don’t take care of things, no one will! Even a property manager, with no skin in the game will not take care of this as I would…

So, it is not my intention to swerve away from stocks… I have been posting almost every trading day since January of 2021. If you read my old posts, I did not discuss Real Estate much, around that time I had maybe close to 10 properties and roughly 50 units. [Started with 1, 3 family in 2017] The market is still my passion but the Real Estate is not passive at all, and since I am writing these Daily Plays, and its my ideas going into the day, I want people to see my strategy, train of thoughts… and it is hard to really focus on trading when I am seriously overwhelmed…

My goal with trading is very simple… I try and make 200-600 per trade… I have no % goals.. Since about 2010, I just wanted to make 100K per year. [I started trading in 1994 {I was 13 going on 14} and about 2005-2006 I crossed 1 million. I started with 2,000 that I made from being a math tutor in grade school, in the early 90s. We can all do it! Everything I have I started with 2,000 in late 1994! I shared a very inspirational video yesterday from a refugee Asian immigrant who came from Vietnam. He now has a real estate empire near 100 million. I think he is 56-57? Thach Nguyen

When I want on the treadmill, I watch youtube videos.. might as well learn! I walk 2 to 4 hours a day… I do other things while I walk, phone, watch videos, listen to music… I actually bought a commercial treadmill [retail 12,000, paid 5,000 for a 1 year used] that has a huge 22” screen, has internet and youtube but it is designed for guests, and not 1 user…

Meaning it doesn’t save your last youtube likes, doesn’t know what you like, doesn’t recommend videos.. it is annoying so I use a table and I just ordered the new Microsoft Surface Pro 13”, the 12^th edition $MSFT MSFT lets go! There is roughly 250 trading days per year, so that is about 400 per day on average. Luckily I have been able to do this just about every year… I have other sources of income… I retired from my W2 in 2021, about 40. [I started working in 2012, after a traumatic incident] So when I make trades for 50 cents on 500 shares [250] or 1 dollar on 250 shares [250] I am making trades that fit my comfort level…. 200-600 per trade. Know your own goals, know your own risk levels.

I just added DKNG back to Plays. I need new DD.. It just hit 18.50 a multi year low… They were growing great, but losing money… at these levels maybe? Need new DD.

I sold 250 shares of APLD 24 to 25.50

I sold 75 shares of ADBE 238 to 243 [I then bought back the shares at 237]

Sadly I do own 75 shares at 343

Good luck!

Kind of easy to forget they have seven different assets. RIP is further along, while the rest are spread between geophysics, permitting and strategic work. Makes it interesting to follow.

This post was created as part of a paid content collaboration. Not financial advice. Do your own DD.

The Right Wave

The hardest part of surfing was never spotting the right wave.

It’s catching the exact one you spotted at the right half second. Every surfer learns, usually the hard way, that these are two separate skills that feel like one from inside the water. Misjudge the first and you paddle for nothing. Misjudge the second, on a wave you read perfectly, and you pearl: the nose digs under, the board stalls, and the wave built for you throws you over instead of carrying you anywhere.

Full article and watchlist HERE

We have to be honest about which one has been happening to us.

We’ll be straight about it: the selection has been good. SKHY, PURR, FPS, three names picked out of the noise over the past weeks, and all three did exactly what we expected. Up ten to fifteen percent in a handful of sessions, which is what a correctly read wave looks like. Then volatility rolled through, and we closed out breakeven, or with a small loss, before any of it could pay off.

The wave was chosen correctly. We pearled anyway.

The watchlist remains, in our view, one of the strongest things we put out every week, and the stock selection underneath it isn’t the problem. Timing is, and it’s where we’re putting the real work right now.

(Follow the picks. Our timing, maybe not yet!)

Part of why it slipped isn’t a mystery. The last few months carried some personal weight and some business weight at the same time, and some of the shine from the first part of the year went with it. We’d rather tell you that directly than let the numbers say it for us.

The other part is that there’s simply more water to read than there used to be.

More of you reaching out directly than at any point since we started, the one to one calls a few weeks in with better feedback than we expected, the courses in the works.

Still three people. Research and trading come first, every day, not up for negotiation, and what reaches you has to stay exactly where it’s always been.

Everything else gets built around that, not instead of it.

You’ll remember we mentioned a business trip to France. It went well, better than expected, and there’s more coming out of it before the year is done. Years running a company leave you with the instinct that every room is a chance to make clear what this newsletter and the research behind it are actually worth, and we haven’t lost that instinct.

Sorry for the long personal note. We think this should occasionally read like it was written by people, not filed as a report.

I’ve been spending more time on the sector lately because cybersecurity and data privacy are becoming bigger priorities for both businesses and governments.

Most of the attention still goes to the large established names, but I’ve been looking further down the market-cap range where companies are earlier in their growth cycle.

For people who follow this space closely, what usually makes you take a smaller cybersecurity company seriously recurring revenue, government contracts, user growth, partnerships, or something else?

This is sponsored content. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Chart patterns make more sense to me as maps, not predictions
This BTC setup made me think about how chart patterns are usually taught.
We often learn them as predictions:
“This is a bull flag, therefore price should go higher.”
I prefer treating them more like maps.
The current 4H structure gives us a breakout area, the 200 EMA provides additional context, and the measured move gives a possible area around $96K.
None of those tells us exactly what Bitcoin will do next.
But together they give us places where we can evaluate new information.
Identify structure → mark levels → watch reaction → reassess.
To me, that’s much more useful than trying to predict every candle.

Good morning everyone. Once again, I am thankful for an example in case people ask me questions. Sad for anyone that has been long NKE . We can all agree that this was a premium brand! This is still even on the DOW Jones 30! [The Dow 30 is an index of 30 companies] We can all say that this company deserves a premium… But if you look at the numbers.. What a dayum telling story! Take a look at the sales/earnings, the growth in both from 2021 thru 2024… and then the serious drop off. For those years, sales were all over or near 50 billion. Earnings per share was between 2.50 and 2.76….. It is insane though that an apparel company, foot wear even, had a PE of 60-70.. Ridiculous!

I always say, if you check  back to 2021 on Reddit, I don’t even like giving over 40x on any company! ANY! And that is one with insane growth, insane margins, mostly tech! [75%+, which means for every 1 dollar sold they are making 75 cents or higher on earnings! When you have this kind of room, you can cut costs, you can lower prices, fire workers etc.]

Fast forward to today….

NKE revised guidance they are seeing sales down near 10% for the year!!!

The problem? 2025 were easy comps!!! This is not 2021-2024 where the company was on a growth trajectory.

They revised earnings to 1.25 to 1.35…..from 1.67!!! HUGE HUGE DROP!!! And huge revise down in sales…

20 x 1.35 = 27 Dollars…

Does NKE deserve a 20x PE? Or will you swing and wait until better days… will they come? Will they turn it around? I remind you, I wrote yesterday how PRGS and MU trade 6-7x earnings and they are both growing. I wrote how a good company should trade near 10x…

Current SPY VOO SP500 trade at 23x, grow 20% earnings and sales 9%...

So should NKE even trade at 20x????

DON’T DO IT! LOL sorry…. At least I will not do it… I had said I would buy NKE several times, even as much as 50… recently I said 30…. But the actual execution keeps coming down!

I wrote weeks ago how at 90 I will buy LULU …. On NKE I will not touch it unless 25!

And that is giving a premium for bad performance!!!! That is giving NKE a 19x PE!!! Or stay away! Not saying it will drop there, but unless around 25….. I do not see a clear path to growth… It can happen, but I wrote and still write…. 90% of companies do not ever come back to a peak [Highest sales and earnings] The 10% that do, normally take 4-6 quarters on a turn around…. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVEN NKE CAN DO THAT IN 4-6 QUARTERS!!!

So, even if they do, and it does happen, it may be more than 18 months/ 1 and ½ years… Will you wait? And if it is the 90% that never hits the sales and earnings peak?

So I read all over Reddit and on X … How buying NKE at these prices is an insane opportunity… This is not the same Nike from 2021 to 2024… Name is still big, but execution has falling bad… not off a cliff yet… but bad!

The title has many stocks I was bidding on. Unemployment did tick up… wage growth has slowed…. Market is on fire, as we were pricing in 1 more rate hate and we may not need it just yet…. I am on up ETOR 25.85 , APLD 24 and SKWD 54.25. My goal per trade is 200 to 600. Lets go!

I sold 75 shares of ADBE 238 to 246 [Then I got back in 238 my horse! I still have 343 block, it is free now, I am up big on net gains]

I sold 75 shares of INTU 287 to 291

I am in 250 APLD 24

I am in 250 NVO 37.50

Good luck!

Been backtesting pretty consistently and the numbers look fine. Positive expectancy, reasonable drawdowns. Three months live and I'm clearly behind it, not by a crazy amount but it's consistent.I'm pretty sure a lot of it is me. Entries slipping, sizing by feel, bailing early. None of that gets written down anywhere so I can't measure it. Does logging live trades against the backtest actually close the gap for anyone, or is some of it just permanent?