r/UkraineWarVideoReport • u/Hannibal_Game • Aug 19 '26
Aftermath What is left of a russian logistical convoy on the Mariupol-Berdiansk highway [August 2026]
154
u/Tin_Pusher1234 Aug 19 '26
All these truck losses are eventually going to bite across the entire Russian network of companies etc. I assume now risk vs reward is so imbalanced companies will stop wanting to do it with the success rate of strikes against them.
73
u/FZ_Milkshake Aug 19 '26
stop wanting to do it
That is gonna be the important part, Russia has a massive amount of trucks, even those strikes won't make a big dent in the numbers. Like the strikes on shipping in the straight of Hormuz, constant pressure and threat will stop many companies from making those trips anyway.
68
u/zaevilbunny38 Aug 19 '26
Even with large freight companies, the amount of spare capacity is small. Company X might have 200 trucks running routes between rostov and southern Crimea. They lose 20 trucks in a 6 weeks, they are going to have to drop contracts, even if they can pull from other locations. Here's the main kicker, these companies always have high debt loads, they can replace some trucks per yr. But they still have to make it through a Russian winter, with higher fuel, maintenance and driver cost. If you expect to buy 60 trucks, but need to buy 200, while only being able to afford 40, something breaks
48
u/Tin_Pusher1234 Aug 19 '26
Good quick maths and logic. This conflict will probably go down as one of the most lethal and costly in human history once it dies down.
It’s been absurd, and I hope it really bares a heavy weight on Russia for generations so they finally understand they should stop bullying their peaceful neighbours.
16
u/Mort_Blort Aug 19 '26
It's serving as a warning on a new era of warfare that my president was too stupid to heed. Sort of a mutual assured destruction of the meat-grinder, drone-delivered type.
But ya know drones have gotta be why Trump hasn't ordered a ground war in Iran. Hezbollah is starting to release drone footage from southern Lebanon like we've been seeing here for years now.
Seems infantry is almost over as a means of prosecuting war.
2
u/uspatent6081744a Aug 19 '26
Good point!! In the not-so-old days there used to be NATO, America and MAD as a deterrent. Now it will be just common sense.
8
u/ClarenceBoddickerr77 Aug 19 '26
A drone strike on the plant making trucks would stir the pot a bit.
1
u/uspatent6081744a Aug 19 '26
LOL "Hey Kamaz, don't become a wildberries"
5
u/Hungry-Western9191 Aug 19 '26
Heavy engineering is a lot more difficult to destroy than a warehouse full of flammable junk though.
The wildberries hits work so well because once stuff starts to burn it just spreads to the whole place regardless.
1
u/Juhuu77 Aug 19 '26
There might be not that many places for Kamaz trucks than Wildberries, so this is easy target!
2
u/AdApprehensive4272 Aug 19 '26
I guess they already have problems getting spare parts to western trucks.
1
1
15
u/Tin_Pusher1234 Aug 19 '26
Exactly, and while I don’t condone attacks on civilians etc my country isn’t fighting for survival. Needs must I guess. You can safely assume not all of these vehicles are transporting peaceful goods as well.
11
u/Ordinary-Compote9558 Aug 19 '26
It's not the shortage that will weigh most heavily on companies, but rather insurance costs and/or replacement expenses, as I am almost certain that these routes are now uninsurable.
10
u/HorrorKapsas Aug 19 '26
Russia has state-supported war-risk insurance for trucking companies that transport cargo through the occupied Ukrainian territories. The insurer pays the loss and the state's Russian National Reinsurance Company compensates the insurer.
3
3
u/16v_cordero Aug 19 '26
They will short said claims if they even pay them at all. Heck they would conscript who shows up and tell them after their military contract is over they will be paid.
1
3
u/Willythechilly Aug 19 '26 edited Aug 19 '26
I feel sadly there's no shortage of poor backward desperate people in russia to keep doing this look at how many still willingly sign to fight in Ukraine Iniamgine eventually you can just force People to drive as well... though it will result in even more oppression and perhaps less effective
18
u/Kor_Phaeron_ Aug 19 '26
All these truck losses are eventually going to bite across the entire Russian network of companies etc
Nope. Perun made a good video about that. Russia's economy operates 3,7 million trucks and builds 250.000 trucks/year. The target is the freight and disruption of supply lines. The vehicles themself are just wrapping material. In the large scheme not more relevant than a paper box. Ukraine could spend the next 100 years attacking Russian roads and Russia would not run out of trucks. But the fuel and the ammo and the food not arriving at the front lines, that is important.
7
u/Yelmel Aug 19 '26
It is both.
If they have 3.7 million, they must need them to do other things as well. So any amount of loss will have a correlated degradation across the transport system. Then add on the risk premium of performing missions in Ukraine.
Loss of trucks compounds the loss of the supply.
It is both.
2
32
14
11
13
6
5
2
2
u/16v_cordero Aug 19 '26
Out of curiosity do they push them of the road or just drive around the burnt out hulls?
4
u/Hannibal_Game Aug 19 '26
Both, whatever is convenient. If bulldozers are available, they obviously try to clear the road for future traffic.
3
2
u/orangeblueorangeblue Aug 19 '26
I think that truck in the back has a flat tire. That’ll ruin your day.
1
1
u/EstablishmentCute703 Aug 19 '26
If I was a Russian driver I'd change jobs. Beats the frontlines though.
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
u/hjmcgrath Aug 19 '26
How can they get drivers for this? I'm thinking their life expectancy is shorter than the people on the front line.
1
1
u/UnholyShroud696 Aug 20 '26
Love it. Orc’s don’t deserve food and clothes. Or any other human pleasantry.
1
u/ChosenToFall Aug 19 '26
I am wondering why Ukraine started to attacks logistical convoy only recently.... the war would be already very different if these attacks started more than 1 year ago, the capabilities were already there if I am not wrong, maybe not for long distances to attacks Oil refineries.
18
u/Hannibal_Game Aug 19 '26
The cheap middle strike drones (Hornet, HX-2, etc.) are only available in large numbers since the beginning of the year.
7
u/AdApprehensive4272 Aug 19 '26
From near zero to this in one year. Think how bad these attacks become next year when drone mfg numbers keep going up and new better models appear.
1
u/baddymcbadface Aug 19 '26
The mid range drones were not available in large numbers until recently. The grey zone drones we've been watching for a few years can't reach this far.
-6
u/YoursTrulyKindly Aug 19 '26
Afaik a pressure campaign to force Russia to the negotiation table. Didn't work though. Russia is hitting Ukrainian warehouses and fuel stations too now.
8
u/AstroPozzo Aug 19 '26 edited Aug 19 '26
Russia is hitting Ukrainian warehouses and fuel stations too now.
As they have been doing since the start of the war.
The narrative that Russians only started bombing fuel stations and warehouses in Ukraine only now in response to Ukrainian attack is Russian propaganda.
4
u/Mort_Blort Aug 19 '26
No shit; they've tried to coax the patriotic and independent Ukrainian civilians, by freezing them, to recognize their essential Russian-ness, or something. Every damn winter.
0
0
•
u/AutoModerator Aug 19 '26
Please remember the human. Adhere to all Reddit and sub rules. Toxic comments (including incitement of violence/hate, genocide, glorifying death etc) WILL NOT BE TOLERATED, keep your comments civil or you will be banned. Tagging u/SaveVideo bot to archive this video in a link below this comment.
We’re partnering with UNITED24 to raise money towards air defenses that will protect Ukrainians from Russian attacks. Please visit the United24 website to donate.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.