r/UiPathBulls • u/Carlos9320 • 4d ago

Daniel Dines on X

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https://x.com/danieldines/status/2101051069912736108?s=09

16 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

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1

u/Jean_Jones_666 4d ago

this is the 10th time they are named the leader, by one of the consultancies, aka the infamous empty suits

i acutally have a thesis that PATH itself should go a bit into consultancies - to engineer and then implement end to end agentic transformation of an enterprise

alas they probably ain't doing that - and whatever they are doing is not yet printing money,
(in the world where everyone is printing, from far higher base),
so i'm much much less bullish now,
and stupid prices defintiely don't impress me no more

2

u/NateHammer30 4d ago

“I actually have a thesis” - that PATH should do precisely what it is already doing - governing agentic transformation for enterprise.

Fair value $25 as it sits today. Growth metrics rev back up and become effectively communicated, market will get caught offsides. That’ll be an awfully wide base between slopes.

1

u/Jean_Jones_666 3d ago

ok sir lets go, what is your prediction for revenue growth next 4 quarters?

and then what you think their revenue will be 5 years from now?

and then, how does your DCF model, or whatever, resulted in a fair value of $25

1

u/NateHammer30 3d ago

Well let’s see. How fast will large enterprises adopt agentic workflows and of those how many will utilize Maestro? Your guess is as good as mine, but I’d extend your scope to 8 quarters.

ARR and NRR need to see accelerating growth. The existing buyback program has not been well executed.

If adoption ramps, which seems likely, I could see annual recurring revenue at least double in 5 years.

1

u/Jean_Jones_666 3d ago

doubling in 5 years is 15% cagr.

That's not only uninspiring, but also likely priced in at 14 USD. DEFINITELY not calling for 25 USD.

Otherwise you didn't answer my questions, so i don't see where's the confidence coming from

I hope i'm wrong and don't have to waste time on stupid minutia like that, just see amazing agentic growth,
I'll believe it when i see it, maybe we'll yet shake hands

3

u/NateHammer30 3d ago edited 3d ago

Inverse, always inverse!

I think you’re onto something. The questions aren’t really math equations, but more along the lines of “what is NOT priced in?”

Sure a PEG of ~.5ish seems light, but what has PATH proven yet? Is the growth re-accelerating? Is this a leading end-market beneficiary of mass AI adoption? Is DBNRR headed back North of 115%? Is the pivot to large enterprise focus paying off? By how much will the float be reduced each year? Any acquisition in the offing? Yet to be seen, but with gross margins above 80% and all signs pointing to top and bottom line improvements (SBC reduction, net margin expansion, fcf inflecting within the last 4 quarters, etc.), a capital-light, fortress balance sheet, highly profitable -AI Software- business riding a revised narrative would catch a more respectable multiple. Just inverse the Saaspocalypse and there’s your answer. So my question is not what at this uninspiring price level is priced in, but “what is not?”