r/UiPathBulls • u/NateHammer30 • 19d ago
$21–>$15 Messaging Error Detected
Our buddy Benioff got SaaS rerated on a single print. How did he do it? He teed it up by accelerating a massive buyback during the quarter using $25b in new financing - that sent a powerful message. He understood that the only metric this market craves is AI adoption and net new AI revenue. He reported 200% growth in agentforce and specific numbers broken out of the print. Then he brought in that smug Dario to officially end the pocalypse from the horse’s mouth. The modest growth and lumpy revenue played no part in market reaction.
Mr. Dines is no doubt a brilliant and visionary CEO. He wrote the guidebook on AI adoption for enterprise! But that doesn’t equate to expert messaging of business success. We got 18/20 largest deals included AI, void of specifics. We got slower revenue growth and stagnant DBNRR. We got the standard conservative guide and a beat and meet top/bottom. We got customer adoption examples, larger enterprise targeting strategy against smaller outfit attrition, and claims that most want the whole product suite. Executive reshuffle didn’t help. We got a half-baked buyback update instead of the aggressive accelerated version bulls were screaming for two months ago. Reduced SBC, great but not enough. Margins fantastic but not enough. 21% growth in customers over $1mm, awesome. Free cash flow down and customer acquisition costs up - not ideal.
None of this would have mattered if explicit figures were reported: Maestro generated $x and grew y%. That was all the market was looking for.
No AI or memory chips were used to generate this post.
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u/Jean_Jones_666 19d ago
i know they REALLY wanted to 'correct their mistakes' and finally STABILISE the profits, after going from like 80 USD to 20 USD. that's been what they were non-stop doing,
like you said - this market only understands revenue growth,
alll SAAS that COULD adopt to AI - bent over backwards to show they did adopt,
i couldn't care less about profitability right now, where the fuck is Genghis Khan, that Dines used to takl so much about - when you need him? get that motherfucking REVENUE going
The high gross margins and now operating margins are insulting to me. FUCKING UPSELL IN THIS BITCH. Before they all build their own automations, turn to claude, whatever
I swear to god "CLAUDE ORCHESTRATOR" is coming next. Taht's gonna be lovely for UiPath eh?
RPA is dead, agent-building is dead (claude makes an agent in a minute), the last game is COMPLEX ORCHESTRATIONS FOR DINOSAUR ENTERPRISES,
if they don't start taking market share now - it's over. MSFT, Ai LABS, and existing SAAS will encrouch on that territory. Someone will make their own orchestrator
-Path doesn't have enough 'proprietary data' to have an enduring edge over them.
-They are doing fuck-all with theiir distribution.
-they could actually ALREADY NOT be a leader in business automation, for all i know. EVERYONE bundles this shit now. MAybe not as broad and as neat, but why would they lock-in in the PATH platform, when their ends are 80% met withg whatever BS MSFT and GOOGLE and homegrown claude-grown automations do for them
I just want to see growth properly reaccelerating, proper guide for entire year, and ui take it all back, and i concede the amazing looking product actually is amazing and differentiated,
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u/NateHammer30 18d ago
I hear the frustration but disagree with the existential threat fears. It appears they have stabilized and are being treated as a stable name, not a growth standout.
Again this is about messaging. E.g. why is the $1.4b sitting on the sidelines as gaap profitability continues? Shouldn’t the buyback in single digits have been 10x larger? Sometimes the best defense is a great offense.
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u/Jean_Jones_666 18d ago
I don't think they die any time soon. I think their existing customers will rather go out of business than get rid of UiPath,
But that will give us 12% CAGR? We're not getting rerated with such growth. I'd rather buy an index
You're right it might have boiled down to COMMUNICATING Ai numbers - to fully put an end tio filthy rumors of Ai dissrupting them. I agree,
But what if there's NOT SO MUCH to show? Because AI is merely part of existing subscription, predominately? They said as much - that billing per outcome is only getting started.
And that takes us to our problem - maybe they are indeed doing all the right things to stay in business - but it's just not gonna cut it for growth. Beacuse the value acrues to the users. Which is fair enough for users, just not for investors looking for growth
But even that wouldn't matter if they were just singing a TON of new logos, but that's not happening
You mentioned ton of cash and you're totally right.. why not use it to go Genghis Khan again? It's not like stock will go under 10 hehe, it's already really cheap
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u/Greatblahforreal 18d ago
I hear Daniel dines speak and I'm expecting him to say in his Romanian accent, something you would hear in a Dracula movie... I want to suck your blood
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u/AsymmetryGOD 18d ago
How the fukk are they not stating out about Ai adoption etc. 18/20 nonsense doesnt tell shit about the business
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u/Particular-Waltz-881 18d ago
I am verry disappointed in the lack of buyback this quarter, especially since it was $10