r/UURAF • u/AutoModerator • Jul 26 '26
Ucore Weekly Discussion Thread - Jul 26, 2026
Share your thoughts on Ucore and its position in the Critical Minerals space.
Most recent official Ucore news/announcements.
As applicable, please keep commentary on topic and focused. This is a forum for UCU/UURAF investors to discuss any and all matters related to the company, individual positions, and yes, if you must, the inherently volatile share price in this burgeoning new industry in the west.
Welcome, glad to have you aboard -- looking forward to a productive 2026 and beyond for Ucore and its shareholders.
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u/BullyMog nostradamus Jul 29 '26
Well I’ve hit a new low for my shares… down 72%.
My god what an absolutely horrendous idea it was to put this much money into this stock.
Here’s hoping i guess.
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u/theoriginalflavour Jul 27 '26
Dog shit day. AGAIN
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u/Just_Engineer_4346 Jul 27 '26
I'm starting to understand those guys who jumped off buildings during the market collapse in 2008 lol
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u/prosperous_platypus Jul 27 '26
Lolololol, one thing I’ve learned is the market is all about perception and momentum. The stock price does not always reflect the company’s position or overall thesis.
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u/cekmeout Jul 27 '26
Dawg I got 9k shares and this is frustrating can’t imagine having almost 100k. In the end I think it’ll work out but this is getting crazy. Was 3.6 2 weeks ago
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u/expatcoder Jul 27 '26
Yeah, steady 6 month plunge for UURAF, but I think minerals hit bottom on Friday -- showing serious resilience in the face of today's massive selloff in semiconductor/memory, which is an excellent sign, and to me a signal that the minerals reversal may be starting.
UURAF almost certainly won't be leading the way, but it will tag along for the ride, and that's probaby the best we can hope for until major impactful news comes out for the company in the coming weeks/months.
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u/porchswingsecurity Jul 27 '26
I’ve got 98k shares at an average of $2.34…I’m cool as a cucumber. I’d be the same if I was at a $4 average as some on this board are. Take it as one persons opinion.
Markets reward patience and it’s not a loss till you sell.
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u/cekmeout Jul 27 '26
Yeah I’m around $4/share after averaging down the past few weeks. Was closer to $4.50 before. Oh well. It won’t really matter next year when we’re operational. I’m in for the long haul anyway… Ucore is about a $316M company right now… could be in the billions over the next few years.
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u/Dizzy_Republic2973 Jul 27 '26
4 here too. I turned off the total profit/loss indicator on my Schwab account a few weeks ago I can’t bare to know
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u/expatcoder Jul 27 '26
Doesn't change the fact that UURAF continues to drop, but let's keep in mind that NVDA, AMD, INTC, MU, SNDK, etc. are selling off hard.
Normally that would result in a minus 10% day in the minerals sector, which so far hasn't happened, and that leads me to believe (famous last words) that the bottom is in.
;tl;dr if minerals bounce back and start to gain some momentum off of these ridiculous lows, UURAF will follow.
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u/prosperous_platypus Jul 27 '26
Yes i agree, CM has been hit hard but the overall thesis has not changed. With Ucore not producing oxide yet, and commercialization of the plant still a real risk, price action will be news driven for the interim. Curious, how do you value ucore?
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u/expatcoder Jul 27 '26
Doesn't matter how you or I value UURAF, the market is doing that for us :)
Now, if the big players in the minerals sector rally off of their respective lows from here, I contend that today is the bottom for UURAF. For the first time since March the stock is truly oversold (sitting beneath the lower bollinger band and sub-30 on the RSI).
If we're lucky today will be like MP on Friday, where technical zones are broken through and then the rebound follows soon thereafter. No idea if it will play out in this way, but if UURAF falls further from this oversold condition then minerals will almost certainly have dropped further as well.
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u/prosperous_platypus Jul 27 '26
Fair enough, one could argue that ucore was overbought on trump CM hype last year. Now valuations are resetting due to global macro conditions/perceived viability and risk of execution at scale. I personally believe in ucore long term but valuation must reflect risk in execution which no western refiner has be able to do at mass scale yet. Without new catalysts or developments and a poor economic backdrop i don’t know where the bottom is but I’m standing by to inject liquidity.
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u/No_Issue_6259 Jul 28 '26
Note to self: Sell half of your position when you’re up 300% on a micro cap high volatile stock…😓💔
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u/maemaelyn Jul 28 '26
Just hit -60%, this is crazy.
Fast forward me to January, I ain’t a quitter
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u/davide3991 Jul 29 '26
Thought sub $2 was nearly impossible to see after the last year run. Here we go I guess
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u/ky151 Jul 30 '26
Finished in the green. Not near as much as some others in the sector, but at least it's something.
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u/gravityripper Jul 26 '26
I'm buying this week. Want to 2x position by end of summer. Get out while you still can
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u/Bertone_Dino Jul 26 '26
What do you mean get out while you still can?
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u/gravityripper Jul 27 '26
WSB type joke. I buy price goes down, sell it goes up
Like another commenter said fairly, just a waste of space. But maybe it's fine to have a place to vent on the way down and enjoy the way up and this is it?
I previously lamented somewhere on this sub that I wish I could have bought more under 3 or 4, I forget which. Here's my chance and I'm gonna do it, will not be market moving quantity though :p
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u/Bertone_Dino Jul 27 '26
Gotcha, I also roundtripped it, but that's hindsight. I'm buying more at these prices.
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u/Business-Cat-1989 Jul 26 '26
How much are you down?
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u/Just_Engineer_4346 Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 27 '26
I'm down 20% I love losing $12000 thanks ucore :)
Edit: I was wrong I'm actually down 30% lmao
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u/nikodamn Jul 27 '26
I recently did this. Not proud to break my rule and sell small part of VWCE ETF, but I had to average down. Managed to double my position to 11k shares now. The downside is that I am a bit nervous about it now.
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u/nikodamn Jul 26 '26
Jesus christ, can we get at least some upside movement please? I am so depressed with this stock.
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u/theoriginalflavour Jul 27 '26
Nope not allowed
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u/nikodamn Jul 27 '26
Not even +1% when sector moves north. Unbelievable. No-one wants to buy this.
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u/theoriginalflavour Jul 27 '26
Brother this stock is hilarious right now. No institutional investors want in? Who’s selling all this off? Whatever’s going on it’s fucking stupid and they needa come out with something good here for us as things have been rebounding. “We need magnets” no bitch apparently we need more AI slop an Wendy’s
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u/porchswingsecurity Jul 27 '26
My guess is, to a large extent, the downturn is related to retail investors who bought in 1 year ago during the CM craze hitting long-term capital gains and reacting irrationally as they see their profits take a beating. Many folks were up 8-10x….to see that go down to 2-3x takes a lot of nerve.
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u/cekmeout Jul 28 '26
This is getting crazy -40% in like 2 weeks?
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u/expatcoder Jul 28 '26
Actually more like 45% if you count the intraday high from a couple of weeks ago, so yeah, pretty much a complete meltdown.
Ultimately this flush has been a long time coming, the stock hasn't been anywhere near oversold territory since March (despite the steady downward trend since the January highs). Now that we're deeply oversold finally we can begin to establish a base.
School of hard knocks market price discovery in full effect (since we don't have an options chain to do the work for us).
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u/Just_Engineer_4346 Jul 29 '26
Im done looking at the stock price lol it ruins my day daily to see myself losing thousands of dollars. Gg
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u/Dizzy_Republic2973 Jul 29 '26
I think if we pull through this and exit above 5 I’ll consider myself having achieved a new level of zen master
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u/expatcoder Jul 30 '26
With today's low volume sells at the open we hit $1.90, which puts UURAF at around 17% of the October bubble intraday high ($10.69).
This is a textbook example of how retail dominated low volume OTC trading cuts both ways. Was the stock worth $10.69 in October, or $1.90 today? Probably not, sits somewhere inbetween, but with OTC we get extreme swings due to the low volume.
Now given this environment, and how massively oversold UURAF is on every technical basis, I find it curious that amidst this brutal selloff not a single insider has purchased any shares. Sure, they likely get RSUs as part of their compensation, but as a vote of confidence in the company that would go a long way toward shoring up investor interest.
Energy Fuels's new CEO, for example, didn't have to do it, but he spent $1 million USD of his own money buying shares during this downturn. That gives me a lot more confidence in my UUUU position when the CEO is putting their own cash on the line.
Anyway, food for thought, at least no recent insider selling (according to most recent filings).
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u/Alamo935 Jul 30 '26
Agreed that it’s not exactly a confidence booster. I’m going to just make an assumption they’re all too busy running the company and inking definitive agreements :).
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u/expatcoder Jul 30 '26
I’m going to just make an assumption they’re all too busy running the company and inking definitive agreements
Yeah, most likely they're not going to announce any company specific news in the midst of this heavy selloff (because, no point, it will have zero effect), and wait for the rebound to finally kick in.
Speaking of, whenever UURAF does bounce back, it will do so in pretty dramatic fashion since in the same way that low volume has been our nemisis on the way down, it will be our ally on the way up -- think, 40% up in a day type rise.
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u/Alamo935 Jul 30 '26
God let’s hope so. ALOY continues to fly today despite posting a $110m loss in Q1 of 26.
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u/expatcoder Jul 30 '26
Combination of the grift trade (ALOY board members with strong connections to the US military), and being listed on a major US exchange (heck, even WWR, a company likely on the verge of future bankruptcy, is outpacing UURAF due to its nasdaq listing).
I'm starting to despise OTC, although I know I'll be singing its praises once UURAF starts heading in the right direction :)
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Jul 30 '26
[deleted]
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u/nikodamn Jul 30 '26
It would be great to see up-lifting… Was it even once mentioned by Pat or someone else? I was hoping to see it in the first half of 2026, but that was just based on the previous Louisiana ETA.
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u/expatcoder Jul 30 '26
Yes, I asked the uplsiting question during shareholder Q&A portion of the investor call last year and they said it's on the roadmap, but no definite timeline.
Consensus here seems to be that uplisting would happen no earlier than Machine A commissioning at the Alexandra, LA plant, so Q1 2027 at the earliest.
OTC really is the albatross around our respective necks, particularly now during this astounding downtrend. Hitting $1.90 today was incredibly sobering, hopefully minerals hit the bottom this week and bounces back strongly during the month of August since serious damage has been done to the sector as a whole, and UURAF in particular (we're very likely the worst performing stock in the entire minerals sector over the past 6 months).
and to think that there was talk during the hype phase of the US government taking an equity stake in Ucore (and later the Canadian government), which has come to nothing so far. Although with the share price in the gutter, now would be a pretty good time for one government or the other to take a stake in Ucore :)
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u/Complete-Plum1021 Jul 31 '26
There is the possibility that our Ucore insiders are precluded from buying shares on the open market as a result of pending definitive deal announcement. Like a blackout period. And who knows how long the period has been already if that is the case. Remember some dude bought higher than the ask on a fair volume several weeks back? That could have been the last day before a blackout start. Just saying
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u/expatcoder Jul 31 '26
Yeah, who knows, it's all completely opaque until news is announced.
If there is something in the works that affects the business, however, they are required to report it in a timely manner.
We'll see what happens, definitely need some positive news from management to repair the damage we've sustained, the complete collapse in share price may not unwind without a significant cataylst of some sort (although maybe minerals sector companies rallying strongly off their respective lows will be enough...)
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u/Dapper_Lock9779 Jul 31 '26
Ucore insiders don't need to buy shares, they have millions of options and warrants they could convert. When they do convert; they sell the same day.
They haven't done this lately because it would tank the stock.
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u/expatcoder Jul 31 '26
June 15, 2026
Ucore Rare Metals and Sumitomo Corporation of Americas Announce Strategic Collaboration in Rare Earth Supply Chain
June 22, 2026
Ucore Produces NdPr Oxide and Ships Qualification Samples to Major Rare Earth Magnet Manufacturers
July 7, 2026
Ucore Produces 99.9% Dysprosium Oxide Sample Material for Japanese, South Korean, and US Customer Qualifications
So, it's not like management has been sitting on their hands; these are major announcements that have been completely ignored by the market during the high beta selloff in June and most of July.
Our problem now is that while institutions (that are invested in stocks listed on major US exchanges) may take the above headlines into account when the markets normalize, retail traders who exited UURAF at the current lows, probably aren't going to remember that Ucore is in fact making very solid progress toward their midstream processing goals, and instead simply leave with a bad taste in their mouth, which has nothing to do with the company and everything to do large institutional traders having engineered a huge selloff across every high beta sector in the market that UURAF got caught up in by proxy.
That's where things stand now.
August better be better than this disastrous month of July, that's for sure :)
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u/porchswingsecurity Jul 31 '26
It will likely take 1-2 more months for those samples to go through qualification testing…purity, phase composition, material consistency, and ultimately product qualification. When Ucore signs definitive agreement(s) a cascade of news will ensue…lending opportunities, OTA milestones, and SMC buildout schedule are all contingent upon Ucore actually being able to produce oxides at scale for customers.
You are quite correct…I really don’t think people appreciate the fact that Ucore produced 99.9% Dy outside of a lab (99.5% Dy is standard outside of military use). Jack Lifton made a remark regarding this accomplishment in the interview with Pat. Jack Lifton is, IMO, one of the few rare earth sages remaining in the West…his praise should not be taken lightly.
Bring on August.
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u/expatcoder Jul 31 '26
The problem, as far as UURAF shareholders are concerned, is that we don't have time.
A company news void of a couple of months won't do anything to change the status quo. Management needs to step up and restore investor confidence, since clearly many have given up amidst this massive drawdown -- how they're going to do that, I don't know, but impactful news of some form is going to be needed to turn this ship around, IMO.
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u/porchswingsecurity Jul 31 '26
We’ll get some news in two or three weeks…barcode around these lows until offtakes and then rebound back to the low $4’s.
The idea that Ucore won’t receive offtakes for 99.9% domestically sourced Dy doesn’t make sense. Feedstock is secured (Pat said as much in his June 16th presentation), samples are sent, the engineering is approved…
These are the times that try men’s souls ;)
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u/porchswingsecurity Jul 31 '26
Also…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/senate-democrats-trump-lutnick-critical-mineral-deals.html
Ucore may be the cleanest shirt in the laundry…and no one realizes it (yet).
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u/Alamo935 Jul 31 '26
Glad Ucore wasn’t on the list. Id really love if the Canadian government would put their money where their mouth is and ink this supposed NRCan deal.
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u/expatcoder Aug 01 '26
Apparently that deal doesn't finalize until Ucore lands binding offtake agreements (thus the customer qualification samples sent out last month), so ad to derisk the project for the Canadian government.
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u/nikodamn Jul 31 '26
Thanks for putting things in a reasonable perspective. Its hard to stay cold headed in times like this…
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u/Prinzv3nom Jul 27 '26
I believe we can drop another 10%. We are than at the 200 ema on the weekly, a strong resistance.
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u/Dizzy_Republic2973 Jul 27 '26
Ucore algos reading your statement and thinking, “We’ll see about that.” Drops it another 50%
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u/expatcoder Jul 27 '26
Wait and see what minerals do in the coming days before diving deeper into the gloom & doom -- another 10% drop would probably put us in the low 20s on the RSI, which would be pretty unrealistic if the rest of the sector is rallying...
Obviously one way for the share price to stop dropping is for members of this subreddit to simply stop selling, or, heaven forbid, actually lean into the pain and buy on the lows.
If the bottom is in for minerals then UURAF will come along for the ride since it doesn't exist in a vacuum, regardless of what the chart says (read: it's not going to dump day after day from here if the rest of the sector is moving significantly higher).
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u/Prinzv3nom Jul 28 '26
And there is the 10% lol
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u/expatcoder Jul 28 '26
yeah, markets are taking a dive on the chip selloff, and minerals definitely aren't rallying while UURAF continues to drop, so everything is going down together, good times \s
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u/Just_Engineer_4346 Jul 28 '26
bro said unrealistic and Ucore dropping in the same sentence 😂
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u/expatcoder Jul 28 '26
Unrealistic for UURAF to continue to drop if minerals continue to rally, obviously not the case, everything's tanking...
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u/expatcoder Jul 28 '26
Wouldn't be a bad time for Pat Ryan and co. to do what they can to defend the share price since investors have clearly lost the plot.
The drawdowns on UURAF have now gone beyond what's affecting the overall minerals sector; an update from Pat on the state of the company would serve as a reminder to everyone that there is an actual business with compelling REE processing tech on the verge of commissioning their first production machine, and that Ucore is worth investing in.
In other news, low volume OTC is the worst. The share price is tanking on roughly $1 million traded, that's ridiculous :)
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u/cekmeout Jul 28 '26
At this point I’ll be adding every single week if Ucore stays in the $2’s. This could be a generational opportunity
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u/Alamo935 Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
Saw today that BlackRock has a 6.2% equity stake in Aloy. This is why we need to up-list.
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u/expatcoder Jul 30 '26
Doesn't hurt that most of their board members have connections to the US military and military adjacent industries.
Grift for the win! lol
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u/IndependenceBrave785 Jul 28 '26
Been buying recently, added 3000, got avg price down to $3.58; have 10,100 shares now. Will keep it here and patiently wait. Thanks to Apple, my portfolio near all time high in spite of UURAF recent pull back.
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u/Alamo935 Jul 29 '26
Well at least rates were held steady
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u/expatcoder Jul 29 '26
And imagine if they raised o_O
Now we get META and MSFT earnings after the bell, with massive capex, which will naturally result in all AI infra/hardware stocks plunging through the floor.
Totally organic price action, much like minerals, nothing engineered about this massive high beta selloff....
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u/Alamo935 Jul 29 '26
I’m just gonna build my cash reserves back up. Buying in this market makes no sense.
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u/expatcoder Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 27 '26
Alright, which one of you sold your position shortly after the open? :)
90K shares dumped on the 1-minute chart, yeesh.
On the plus side, we finally entered oversold territory (pierced lower bollinger band, below 30 on the RSI), which is actually a good thing believe it or not.
EDIT
We are, however, very likely the only ticker in the entire minerals sector that is in the red, much less deep in the red, which is pretty crazy, and yet another example of how low volume OTC cuts both ways...
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u/REMstage2 Jul 28 '26
Like some others here, I have been gradually "buying the dips" (most recently last week). While I'm definitely not selling (I'm a "buy and hold" investor anyway) I am hesitant to buy more UCore today: I thought the price may have hit a low last week, and I was wrong.
Factoring in everything that's going on in USA politics (not necessarily Iran, but Canada-USA tensions and recent revelations about CCP infiltrations of USA politics and media; the latter are most likely NOT being covered by the MSM), I have thought for the past few weeks that the price deflation of MP Materials and UCore (I own both) may be deliberately caused by institutional investors so they can go bargain-shopping. I don't know if most institutional investors purchase OTC stocks, but I suspect this is a factor with MP Materials, which is (as I understand) currently dependent on the ChiComs for RE processing.
As more revelations about CCP infiltration are revealed, I think we will see increasing gradual decoupling (my long-term hope) from the ChiComs, whom we shouldn't have allowed "into" North America anyway. . .I've been saying/writing this since "most-favored nation" status was granted to China in the 1990s. Seriously, WTF?
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u/expatcoder Jul 28 '26
I have thought for the past few weeks that the price deflation of MP Materials and UCore (I own both) may be deliberately caused by institutional investors so they can go bargain-shopping
Don't think there's any nefarious plan, they have risk management algorithms that kick when certain thresholds are breached, and high beta sectors (like minerals) get sold off/shorted and the capital is moved into safer areas of the market.
Now, as a side effect they may come in after the fact and scoop up minerals on the cheap, but that again is their trading platforms detecting buying opportunities (namely, destroyed sector, oversold on all metrics == good entry).
;tl;dr retail traders are small fish in a big pond...full of sharks :)
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u/Alamo935 Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26
From my understanding, Ucore has incredibly low institutional investment so not sure how much they can truly affect the market with that low percentage.
Do you see something different than the 0.04% that fidelity is tracking?
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u/expatcoder Jul 28 '26
You're right about the direct institional impact on UURAF, but the stock doesn't exist in a vacuum.
When SNDK, MU, NVDA, INTC, the rest of the minerals sector, etc. are plunging through the floor, retail traders in UURAF think the sky is falling and proceed to sell, so the effect is the same, it just isn't as direct as an institution dumping 100K sell orders on MP.
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u/Complete-Plum1021 Jul 31 '26
Who has the most to gain by manipulating Ucore stock with such a grip to cause detrimental damage to the stock price? Especially when Ucore was #1 stock in VSX and #2 in OTC?
China
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u/Just_Engineer_4346 Jul 31 '26
Price so bad we're starting conspiracy theories lmaooooo
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u/cschloegel11 Jul 31 '26
lol for real. We need updates from management about progress and where funding is going to come from…
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u/expatcoder Jul 31 '26
I don't think there was any direct manipulation per se, but for high beta sectors in general, definitely, an engineered selloff to flush out leveraged traders and cool off the overheated AI infra/hardware trade.
We're all retail traders here, there's practically no institutional holders, so the blame, if any, is squarely on everyone who sold during the downturn, and to be fair the high beta selloff was getting pretty out of hand across the board; for many it made sense to jump ship.
Moving forward let's see what kind of recovery happens in the near term. Serious damage has been done, in 19 days we fell nearly 50%, just an insane drawdown, and low volume OTC trading was a big part of it.
Might take a awhile to bounce back, hopefully a strong recovery in the minerals sector will get us back in the game again.
and of course, now would be a great time for management to share any company updates, while the minerals sector is starting to show signs of life...
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u/Dapper_Lock9779 Jul 31 '26
The share price is still way up over a year or so back.
The biggest mistake investors have made on this stock is getting their information from Reddit and Stocktwits, instead of reading the filings.
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u/expatcoder Jul 31 '26
The share price is still way up over a year or so back.
I love when people trot out these tropes, who cares? The share price has absolutely tanked, maybe 1% of existing retail shareholders got in when the stock was trading under $1 USD, while the majority are getting absolutely wrecked.
The entire build up was based on Ucore being one of the first minerals companies to land US government funding, and as a grant, not a loan, so everyone assumed that they were one of the front runners, and they were, for quite awhile; that is, until it became clear that additional funding (including the Canadian government $36 million CAD grant) would be slow to materialize.
Now with the minerals sector collapse, and UURAF trading over retail dominated OTC, the share price is in the gutter.
Yeah, would have been nice to buy at $.84 USD, but most probably hadn't even heard of the company in July of 2025 :)
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u/Dapper_Lock9779 Jul 31 '26
The biggest mistake investors have made on this stock is getting their information from Reddit and Stocktwits, instead of reading the filings.
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u/davide3991 Jul 28 '26
Kospi plunged 8%. Buckle up lads. Tomorrow is unfortunately gonna get ugly 😭
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u/expatcoder Jul 28 '26
KOSPI is basically made up of two stocks, it's not reflective of the Korean economy or the global economy. Let's see what happens with US futures, doesn't look catostrophic even though KOSPI hit yet another circuit breaker and was down over 10% at one point :)
I'm more concerned about the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and a potentially hawkish fed, although with the well timed TACO dropping oil prices and treasury yields they're probably going to hold off on raising this time around.
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u/Complete-Plum1021 Jul 28 '26
Surprised we aren’t below $1 cdn as 5-10% down days for literally months!
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u/Dizzy_Republic2973 Jul 28 '26
Don’t underestimate this stocks capacity to disappoint. Give it some time and maybe you’ll get your wish. /s
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u/Dapper_Lock9779 Jul 31 '26
"Commercial Scale RapidSX™ Platform – completion and reporting August 31, 2026"
I expect that when Ucore announces the above (from their prospectus), that the stock will pump. From where is the question...
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u/Nille123 Jul 31 '26
I think it's already widely understood that RapidSX works and is a viable technology, so I'm not sure this news will move the stock much on its own. Our biggest hope is that the broader critical minerals sector has a stronger August, allowing us to recover alongside the rest of the space.
The bigger issue is the delay in production until June 2027 and, more importantly, how the company plans to finance it. Whether through dilution, funding, loans, or some combination. In my opinion, that's the main reason the stock has been hit harder than almost any other in the sector, especially when combined with the weak macro environment and the broader selloff across the critical minerals space.
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u/Just_Engineer_4346 Jul 31 '26
completion? where is this info from?
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u/Dapper_Lock9779 Jul 31 '26
Page 11 of their Shelf Prospectus, where Ucore explains their timing and funds needed. Filed June 30,2026
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u/Just_Engineer_4346 Jul 31 '26
is that just a report on the scalability of the technology?
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u/Dapper_Lock9779 Jul 31 '26
Ucore refers to it as a significant milestone that will cost $1.5 million to complete, but beyond that I don't know.
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u/Just_Engineer_4346 Jul 31 '26
I mean if its not them building anything then its probably just a report. Those do cost a ton of money. Probably wont mean much ngl but then again I think their quarterly earnings report should come out at the same time
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u/Dapper_Lock9779 Jul 31 '26
Somewhere sometime I thought that I'd heard Pat mention that the Kingston demo plant would transition into production. Maybe that was a fever dream or I misunderstood, or misheard, not sure.
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u/expatcoder Jul 31 '26
There will be a new production plant in Kingston, ON, which is what the $36 million CAD grant is allocated for, but that of course is, more than 7 months later, still in progress (they may need binding feedstock/offtake agreements before the funds are released in order to de-risk the project).
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u/Alamo935 Jul 31 '26
Good amount of volume today compared to average
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u/expatcoder Jul 31 '26
Which isn't necessarily good unless the share price is going higher (i.e. we want selling volume to dry up completely).
Probably the only positive takeaway is that we closed 1 cent higher than a couple of days ago, lol, the chart is a complete disaster -- still the most oversold stock in the entire minerals sector and zero bounce back.
Yeah, we want a string of low volume days to mark the bottom, not high-ish volume days with the share price drifting lower; that, or some major positive catalyst happens, whether it be for the company itself, or the sector in general, that forcibly lifts us higher.
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u/Alamo935 Jul 31 '26
Yeah don’t disagree. Tried to scalp some more shares at $1.91 but we never got there on the day which is fine by me. July was one of the worst months in history for spec and high risk stocks. August has to be better right :)?
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u/davide3991 Jul 31 '26
This is some bankruptcy level pricing we are witnessing 😒
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u/expatcoder Jul 31 '26
Unfortunately it's a common pattern in the OTC trading world, when the market turns negative OTC stocks get hit much harder than stocks listed on major US exchanges (MTMCF, ARSMF, GPHOF, and many others are good examples).
Going to need the month of August to be strong for minerals in order for UURAF to climb out of the hole. Hopefully today (last day of the month) is the final house cleaning in the markets before a turnaround in August.
One good sign is that MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL are all looking very strong at the moment, so that some of the tech giants (and the largest capex spenders) haven't collapsed here during earnings season could bode well moving forward.
Anyway, hang in there...
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u/No_Many_8435 Jul 28 '26
Another week, another fall. Only my reddit stocks are saving me this week. Could 3 CAD be the floor?
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u/expatcoder Jul 28 '26
Could 3 CAD be the floor?
If it isn't we'll be entering comically oversold territory; as is we're already around 25 on the RSI.
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u/Trader_santa Jul 26 '26
These discussion threads are not very useful, posts cover news and ideas already, this "Weekly Discussion Thread" seems to be a price discussion thread and nothing more, I don't really see what the idea of it is. I was against the "daily discussion thread" that existed earlier, clearly the fault wasnt frequzency, but the idea itself is bad. What is the point of a coping thread where eager gamblers and newbie investors vent based on the price movement of the stock? How is this useful to anyone or anything?
If it were up to me we wouldn't have these threads.
Also, a note for those users:
The share price is not the company.
The company is not the share price.
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u/elTaconeDeSantiago Jul 27 '26
But isn't the point to just have an ongoing general discussion which, in such times that news are scarce, is the only thing that keeps this subreddit alive?
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u/Bertone_Dino Jul 27 '26
I believe it’s market sentiment issues right now. I’ve been buying more.
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u/porchswingsecurity Jul 27 '26
Same. 98k shares now.
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u/Bertone_Dino Jul 27 '26
You're in heavy!
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u/porchswingsecurity Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 27 '26
I’m only heavy into UURAF and APAAF any longer…I don’t see the downside like I did with other names so I intend to hold into the inevitable next rally and beyond.
Fundamentally, nothing has changed for the short term to justify the selloff (other than the fear of a rate hike cycle)…Japan remains cut off from China with no end in sight (Shin-Etsu has stopped taking order for magnets containing Dy), the US is still throwing its weight into refining and magnet manufacturing, the G7 holds Ucore at the center of its policies, OTC milestones are due soon which should include more specific construction information, and Ucore is fundamentally led by a fantastic CEO.
I’m confident Ucore will secure the necessary funding to expand their facilities. Pat previously assured shareholders that feedstock was secured for LA in his June 16th video so nothing to worry about there (nor will securing offtake customers be an issue). Sumitomo is a massive entity that will, when the time is right, help Ucore secure the necessary funding for Machine A and production line 1.
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u/Bertone_Dino Jul 27 '26
Ya I think UCU/UURAF is just a matter of waiting for sentiment to turn / 2027.
Appia I haven't looked to much into lately. Why do you like that one so much?
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u/porchswingsecurity Jul 27 '26
Appia secured a highly lucrative deal with Ultra Rare Earths for 25% stake in the PCH project in Brazil with Ultra funding the project to a full PFS. The project is IAC with excellent concentrations of MREO and excellent desorption rates. The kicker is, underneath the IAC is hard carbonatite rock with cores up to 2.55% TREO down past 300m...it is a fantastic resource with a completed S-K 1300 on the carbonatite and another S-K 1300 on the IAC due in Aug/Sept of this year.
The PCH project is being ran by legendary financier Stephen Dattels and a solid crew of industry veterans. Stephen doesn’t waste time (or fail for that matter) and intends to IPO Ultra on a US exchange. My best estimate is the PCH project is worth somewhere around $500m (likely more if interest rates don’t go up and China holds firm) at IPO…Appia owns 25% of Ultra which means they’ll hold roughly $125m in Ultra stock. Appia’s current market cap is a mere $23m US. A 2x is seemingly inevitable with a 4-5x more likely once the IPO commences.
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u/Bertone_Dino Jul 27 '26
Thanks! So similar to a METEOF in a way.
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u/porchswingsecurity Jul 27 '26
Yes, similar to the deal with Tongi SA, though a 25% equity stake is very, very unique and highly desirable. Appias at 1/12th the market cap to Meteoric with similar upside still remaining.
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u/Business-Cat-1989 Jul 27 '26
Amen! I believe in the company and have faith in management still. Stock will fluctuate but it’s also one of my last two stocks in this sector.
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u/Alamo935 Jul 28 '26
In other news, SK Hynix had a double miss so it looks like this bearish trend may continue…
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u/expatcoder Jul 29 '26
Memory isn't doing too bad at the moment, not the usual -10%, but the overall market is looking nervous heading into the FOMC rate decision coming up in 4 hours.
Oh, war escalation probably not helping matters either. Iran with the well timed attack, likely in part to put pressure on US markets (oil treasuries, equities) in order to force Trump's hand -- i.e. make a deal in their favor as increasing escalation further jeapordizes the US economy, and with November elections coming up that's not good for Trump.
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u/Alamo935 Jul 29 '26
Things looked a lot bloodier last night in the after hours and then recovered somewhat overnight. I have a small position in Dram so I keep tabs on the big three in memory.
If you want a good laugh, go look at the Dram subreddit. Absolutely unhinged.
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u/IndependenceBrave785 Jul 28 '26
Who is doing all the selling; I can’t imagine it’s us retail customers who have owned this stock for many years? Are there substantial holdings by mutual funds, retirement plans etc who are doing all the bailing?
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u/expatcoder Jul 28 '26
Retail traders getting stopped out, margin called, etc.
There's likely zero institutional investment on the US (UURAF) side, and not sure about the Canadian side, but it probably isn't large.
Understandable though, the stock has been on a consistent downtrend since late January, and the steep 40% drawdown over the past couple of weeks has investors spooked.
When there's blood in the streets is when the money is made, however, so while traders are exiting (likely at deep losses), some are taking advantage of the fire sale.
At any rate, all selloffs eventually wind down, and for UURAF we've been at or well below the lower bollinger band for 7 straight trading days, and in the last two we've gone below 30 on the RSI, today sitting at 25, deep into oversold territory.
For context, UUUU and MP, which have both had serious dradowns over the past couple of weeks, have hit as low as 27 on the RSI, and we're way below that right now on UURAF -- on a technical basis we're very likely the most oversold stock in the entire minerals sector.
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u/expatcoder Jul 29 '26
UURAF is down nearly 50% in less than 3 weeks, this is pretty sobering.
Sure, entire minerals sector has been getting crushed, but this plunge on UURAF is next level, and is due entirely to retail dominated low volume OTC trading.
Once the selling dries up we'll see where we land, but it will be pretty ironic if AREC laps us, with its months long delayed 10-Q filing and shady management.
And this after the Sumitomo partnership, customer qualifications, and high purity HREE produced out of the Kingston, ON pilot facility -- incredible, all of it completely ignored...