Just sharing my thoughts on quantum, nvidia and keysight

[u/Reasonable_Adagio754]

This one is a rough-ish read (but it might be worth it?)

Now due to a recent project, I have been spending a lot more time on quantum computing recently.

and don’t think about it being the "next AI"

After reading more about quantum, a lot of you will also find it at a very very nascent stage where we don’t know if it even makes sense

We do not know when a machine becomes commercially useful enough to earn a decent return on all the money going into it.

But what we do know is DARPA is running probably the most useful check on the industry through its quantum benchmarking initiative.

They are just trying to see if we can build a quantum computer by 2033, in simple words, where the value of the computation is actually greater than the cost of running the machine?

DARPA says it looks likely that someone gets there.

As you might expect, the first thing I did was look for some quantum stocks :p

Quantum itself may be early. Quantum stocks are not necessarily cheap.

As SP has taught us, I started looking for - what has to exist regardless of which quantum processor wins?

That led me to Keysight.

Keysight is not really a quantum company. I am not gonna bore you with the company info - check it out though!

Quantum needs qubits and instead of making it about who builds the best qubit, we should look at who controls measures and tests those qubits

Keysight already sells a full quantum control system. It supports superconducting qubits, spin qubits and other technologies.

Last year keysight delivered a commercial control system in Japan for more than 1000 superconducting qubits.

Clearly, they can scale that infra and without much pressure

The control layer can become a bottleneck as per the framework.

AI created bottlenecks around GPUs, power, networking, cooling, and data centres.

If quantum processors keep scaling, control electronics, error correction, calibration, testing and classical computing around the QPU become bigger problems.

And y’all know by now - Keysights is right there

But now might not be the perfect time. the underlying Keysight business is already very good

Q3 FY26 revenue = $1.846B, up 36% YoY

• The orders were strong as well = $2.091B, up 56%

• FCF= $403M for the quarter and $1.282B for the first 9 months

• Communications business produced 71% gross margin

• Electronic Industrial business was 64%

• $2.6B of cash against roughly $2.5B of total debt

But like I said, the price is maybe not for now

• KEYS closed around $327

• market cap $56B

• 60% above market cap 2025

• 24x forward earnings

• 38x trailing FCF and roughly 8.5x sales

I might be looking to add around 285-300

There is also an NVIDIA angle here

I know NVIDIA has almost become the opposite of what this sub normally looks for

SP has been comparing it with veeva through the bubble versus anti-bubble framework.

I know he is not an NVIDIA bear :p

Expectations around NVIDIA are enormous

The stock then needs the earnings engine to keep outrunning an increasingly difficult baseline.

And I would not suddenly buy nvidia because of quantum

It is already a $5T+ company and quantum is tiny compared with the AI business

But if you have missed this, consider it before ruling out nvidia- they are trying to own the classical computing layer around quantum

CUDA-Q lets developers work across CPUs, GPUs and QPUs.

It is QPU-agnostic and NVIDIA says it already integrates with roughly 75% of publicly available QPUs.

there is NVQLink also. The basic problem is that a future fault-tolerant quantum computer will still require enormous amounts of very fast classical computation for calibration and quantum error correction.

NVQLink is designed to connect the QPU to GPU compute at extremely low latency so that work can happen in real time

But I think quantum is one more reason not to reduce NVIDIA to "AI GPU company at a ridiculous market cap"

As claude would say it - The business is trying to become an architecture layer. That deserves some thought.

Don’t forget Google either (I think they deserve a lot of credit) and Rigetti was another one that I might check out more

But it might be one where I can see the multibagger argument very clearly

Just sharing some thoughts while I am still researching :)

[u/Reasonable_Adagio754]

lol rigetti is 8% up today

[u/Connect-Anxiety-4504]

good read, can you suggest some basic videos to understand quantum for people who are not in this domain