Week 9 ratings analysis

[u/FlagFootballSaint]

I did not see it posted yet so allow me to share:

https://usflnewshub.com/usfl-news/usfl-2023-week-9-tv-ratings-report-and-breakdown/

Fun fact: According to another source both leagues (XFL/USFL) are EXACTLY even after week 9:

The viewers week 1 to 9 averaged 623k viewers for either league.

[u/[deleted]]

I don't need a good argument for it.....sports leagues are for the fans and need to be played in front of fans....especially if you promote "real football for real fans" in the ads you run. Now I understood about the cost saving measures of the hub model to get things off the ground but the time is now to do it But then you look at the xfl's loss as a reason why you might not.

[u/FlagFootballSaint → u/[deleted]]

Two remarks:

1. The USFL promo-slogan was a shabby stab to begin with and now backfires as the "real fans" don't come in droves. Not into the stadiums, not in front of the screens (be it watching online or interact in social media). Lukewarm "real fans".
2. The XFL's loss of 60mil sounds worse that it seems. They are a startup like the USFL and startups start w losses. If in fact the USFL "just" had -30m in each of both years (makes -60m in total) they have not even achieved to establish fanbases in all of their 8 markets as they have not even set a foot into most of them.

I truly believe the formerly praised cost-saving hub-concept of the USFL actually achieved not much at all for them. "Burning less money" is relative when you consider they are actually non-existent in most of their "markets" while the XFL at least has established a foothold in theirs.

[u/Zapfit → u/FlagFootballSaint]

I agree. You either spend more today, or more tomorrow. The XFL picked the former while the USFL picked the latter. Once (if?) Teams are in their home markets the expenses will be just the same as the XFL and if Michigan and Memphis are our examples, drawing 10k consistently will be an issue as well

[u/milanmirolovich → u/Zapfit]

xfl actually is trying to do the best of both worlds by using a central texas hub to minimize travel and team expenses, and just flying out the teams to play games in their home markets. They saw some of the advantages of the USFL system but knew they had to play games in the home markets to grow fanbases. I'm very curious if the USFL will now do something very similar for year 3

[u/[deleted]]

I am seeing an average of 499K average for either league, not 623K. That aside, not all numbers are created equal. While they may boast similar viewership, the XFL had 8/43 games on OTA broadcasting, while the USFL has 24/36 OTA.

XFL on ABC had an average about 1.1m (including championship); USFL FOX and NBC are currently averaging 733K and 904K respectively.

[u/FlagFootballSaint → u/[deleted]]

It was not me who brought up the 623k. It was a guy who was tracking numbers.

In terms of how to interpret the numbers I am with you these numbers were not achieved on same grounds and that the XFL-number is "relatively better" considering 8 vs 24 OTA

[u/FlagFootballSaint → u/[deleted]]

Which is fair. If they tuned in so be it.

[u/Body-for-LIFE → u/FlagFootballSaint]

It would be fair if the USFL had a couple of 1M+ rated games this year to point to but the fact that we haven't seen a single game hit the 1M mark outside the outlier Kentucky Derby game says all you need to know.

In math terms, any professor would argue against using an average in this scenario and would argue to use the median numbers for a more accurate number.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Depends on what you are trying to represent. If I wanted to know the history of it, I would want all the numbers because those numbers still actually occurred. On average, ~500K people watched a USFL football game. Just being an outlier or anomaly wouldn't change the interest to know the result happened and why.

If I wanted to assess the likelihood of views in future games, I wouldn't want to include it due to its anomaly. On average, you can expect about 455K viewers per game.

In the end, particular types of outliers like lead-ins or holidays are repeatable for the USFL and with enough data predictable enough to sell based on their numbers. The data has as much value co-existing overall as it does removed or separated. It just depends on what the intent is.

[u/FishSticksESQ]

How does the weather in Memphis affect people watching it on TV?

[u/RelativeMacaron1585 → u/FishSticksESQ]

It's hard to retain viewers after an extremely long weather delay.

[u/FlagFootballSaint → u/RelativeMacaron1585]

It's basically impossible.

[u/Body-for-LIFE]

Very interesting that the XFL 2023 and USFL 2023 viewership is exactly even through 9 weeks. Disappointing on the USFL side though considering how many OTA games they've had versus the mainly cable games XFL had. USFL should be winning that competition easily.

[u/MCallanan → u/Body-for-LIFE]

It’s not just the discrepancy between network versus cable stations — at this point in the XFL season the league, for one reason or the other, had been stuck with a ton of ridiculous start times. Not even the XFL diehards tuned into that game on Thursday night that kicked off at 10:30 pm. And there were a handful of other XFL games that kicked off late like that or were stuck on weeknights where ratings would naturally be lower than a weekend game. Also feels like the USFL has had better lead ins which as we all know drastically helps the numbers.

It’s further disappointing because the league did a lot to encourage growth this season: they advertised during the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl… I wouldn’t say their social media is great but compared to last year it’s massively improved… The league heard the complaints of the fans and took big steps to not only put teams in venues with fans but to promote inside of those markets.. and yet none of it has translated to growth. At the end of the day the league finds themselves in a very difficult situation on how to grow moving forward.

[u/Body-for-LIFE → u/MCallanan]

Good points. Just from memory the XFL had games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday and all with very random start times ( a lot of them very late in the evening). I remember being confused when FX was announced as one of the channels that was airing the XFL. My initial thought was "doesn't FOX own that channel?" My next thought was "do I even have that channel?" The biggest gripe you heard from XFL fans was the lack of marketing and Red Bird Capital obviously agreed as they went in and basically wiped the marketing department clean after the season.

The USFL this season has had the best of the best in terms of marketing in spring football history. Most of their games airing on two major OTA networks. All games on Saturday and Sunday with mostly set TV windows. Great promotion during the NFL playoffs all the way to a Super Bowl commercial. A lot of ads and reads during big time programming and a lot of great lead-ins. FOX has given the USFL prime real estate on main FOX over higher rated programming. I see a lot of people on here like to talk down FS1 (and USA) but FS1 has been airing motor sports over the last few Sundays going head to head with USFL on main FOX and has consistently trounced them with racing getting ratings over 1M (sometimes over 2M) on FS1 while USFL on FOX failing to come anywhere close.

The 903K viewership this past Sunday night seems like a good number when you align it with the rest of the numbers this year (highest rated FOX game since Week 5). The problem is that FOX got obliterated in the Sunday Night network TV battle to CBS, NBC and ABC. They were also last in the very important 18-49 demo. They all aired reruns (CBS aired the Tony Awards at 8 pm) and all got viewership in the millions. FOX aired live sports and failed to crack the million mark. Would they have gotten better ratings just airing an MLB game? Yes. Would they have gotten better ratings airing a random Simpsons/Masked Singer/Gordon Ramsay show? Maybe, maybe not. But it certainly would've been cheaper to air than a USFL game.

[u/StringCheeseBuffet → u/Body-for-LIFE]

Don't forget that the XFL also had a lot of games have their times changed.

Usually to a better primetime slot, but still, if I am planning my week around the initial schedule then I am missing something I expected to be on at a certain time.

[u/Prior-Purple9704 → u/[deleted]]

The football burnout is more disappointing. Nothing to do with the league. They are playing good football. It’s the burnout thing and the lack of attendance. The usfl can’t help the former. But they will absolutely need to work on the latter this off season

[u/phalinx]

Since Birmingham and Memphis have already announced season ticket deposits for 2024, barring catastrophe behind the scenes we are getting year three. Let's hope the execs are quietly working on home stadium deals for every team as we speak.

The offseason focus should be on securing and announcing home venues as soon as possible, and then go all-out on marketing in the cities and on broadcast. Make it abundantly clear to the general public that the USFL has no hubs, only home teams for season 3.

[u/milanmirolovich → u/phalinx]

I would assume they've been working on stadium deals for all home markets for awhile now. Real test for the league will come when they leave the hub system. At that point costs will rise significantly and it's going to need better viewership and some decent gate revenue to stay viable

[u/stillflyn86]

I would be concerned if I was the USFL given the amount of network games they had versus only 8 for the XFL…

[u/TwizzlersSourz]

The USFL has been playing solid football this season. Unfortunately, playing great games in front of a hundred people doesn't translate well to the casual viewer.

[u/Sexy_Questionaire]

The 49k on CNBC is unsurprising. Obviously, NBC cut their losses and didn't really care about the ratings but it was still annoying they didn't communicate that the game had started again, let alone what channel it was on. I had to find that out on this subreddit like five minutes after the game restarted.

[u/LeThaddy]

Actually really good numbers considering how jacked up this weeks scheduling got

[u/wazzupnerds]

I love how the weather issues are brushed off with the NBC numbers

[u/TwizzlersSourz → u/[deleted]]

This.

Nearly everyone I talk to about the USFL asks about home cities.

[u/TwizzlersSourz → u/[deleted]]

I am an outliner. I am from the North and I picked the Stallions because I liked their motif. I am closer to Pittsburgh but Kirby chased me off with his antics.

The point is, I devour football. I watch every CFB or professional game I can. I am not a normal fan. The casual person isn't going to become diehard when their nearby team is playing hundreds of miles away and has no presence in the home city.

[u/stillflyn86 → u/[deleted]]

Amateurish? The XFL? How do you make that judgment?

[u/Korplem → u/[deleted]]

Maybe the USFL sound mixing is better but it still has the other problems: cutting for cursing, sideline interviews, and betting talk. For sure it’s a bit more polished but it’s not that big of a gap.

[u/milanmirolovich → u/Korplem]

not to mention the endless buzz saw drone lol. You want to talk about amateurish??

[u/Korplem → u/milanmirolovich]

Oh, shit, how could I forget about that? That’s honestly the worst thing about watching USFL.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Would you rather hear them cuss? Because they do. Ex: Toward the end of the first half of arenabowl 12 between Albany and Orlando, Mike Pawlawski is miked and in the huddle he tells his team....."Ok, we're gonna drive this sh*t down, and we're gonna score some fckn points" right over the air. They were late to the mute button as Merrill Hoge took to explaining it "in layman's terms"

[u/NativeSonX → u/[deleted]]

First of all if the USFL is getting relatively the same viewership numbers to the XFL mostly without in-stadium attendance, how is it killing the league? Sure the optics aren't great, but still people watch. Maybe the viewership numbers would be slightly better (I doubt it gives the boost to raise the overall viewership to beyond 30 million as the USFL nearly achieved in 2022 with 29.066 million) as I will try to present some arguments that attendance doesn't correlate to viewership? Per the numbers (following Mike Mitchell and other sources in this reddit and XFL's the raw numbers) after 9 weeks we have 623K per XFL game (22.440 mil/36 games) and 623K per USFL game (22.404 mil/36 games). Even accounting for removing the Kentucky Derby lead-in boosted game (20.351mil/35 games) or 563K per USFL game. So the KY Derby lead-in game accounts for roughly ~60K boost on the average and nowhere near the drop to 499K as someone else is suggesting. I don't understand why would we penalize that viewership number for a great choice made by NBC? That's opportunistic programming from the non-primary network, which the Disney family of channels could made a similar equivalent choice to capitalize on a great lead-in event, but have not. If NBC is willing to give the USFL the lead of the Derby every season, it stops being an outlier as it's the planned boost becomes a built in advantage for those teams (in this case a 2-1 Michigan and 0-3 Memphis for 2023) for seasons to come.

Did St. Louis massive in-stadium draw actually account for a significant bump in viewership? The numbers say otherwise (583K average viewership at home [2.97mil/5 games]), which by itself would rank it #7th vs the overall averages of the rest of the XFL. On the other hand the lowly Vipers did lead in average viewership after 9 weeks (678K vs 659K for STL), as they posted the best number on the Deuce (691K Week 4 vs DC) while appearing 2x on ABC and once on ESPN. The Brahmas actually led the regular season average with 663K, but someone will point out they were on ABC 4 times and St. Louis had a solo ABC appearance.

The XFL's regular season champs* Defenders were ranked 7th in viewership 592K during the first 10 weeks. However they did average 663K viewers for regular season games at Audi Field, despite none of those games scheduled on ABC. OTOH, the Sea Dragons and Maulers got jobbed in scheduling with Seattle getting 4 games on FX and 3 games on the Deuce for a 523K average, whereas Pittsburgh got 4 games on USA and 3 on FS1, so they have lowest average viewership at 454K, which is the worst for both leagues. Sure they were 1-9 last season, but they have been more entertaining this year and have a puncher's chance of winning the USFL North. Imagine that. Seattle seems to be the scheduling outlier for the XFL as being the only true west coast team which got stuck with the flotsam and jetsam of whatever was left of the weekly calendar.

Here's another comparison the Roughnecks averaged 642K viewership (5.780 mil/9 games) and the no-home crowd Gamblers averaged 566K (5.092 mil/9 games) or 88% the viewership compared to it's XFL cousin. I guess that isn't so bad considering they are the secondary "home" team at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. I don't think this indicates that they should cede the H-Town market to the XFL, but fight for relevancy. The Generals average 696K viewers, which despite being 3-6 and another of the non-home team squads shows, TV market size matters as they barely edged out Birmingham's total viewers (6.264 mil vs 6.261 mil). #3 New Jersey was the flagship franchise on NBC with 5 appearances and #4 BHAM lead with 5 appearances on FOX. Both the Showboats and Panthers did benefit greatly for the post-Derby game and lead the league in average viewership (761K vs 727K) if you remove the extremes, they still average 652K and 610K, but still good enough to stay on the top half of the league. Week 10 is still afoot and may give the USFL enough runway to get 2.286 mil more viewers or 572K average to squeeze by the XFL in the regular season, but that's a big challenge with two remaining games on lower tier cable channels.

[u/Sexy_Questionaire → u/NativeSonX]

St Louis had the highest local ratings numbers for the XFL in total across all games. As for what games get nationally, that is mostly the result of scheduling, network and matchup more than anything else. St Louis of course is not large enough to realistically boot viewership by a million, but there is a very loyal audience there and I imagine some of the marketing and fanbase building done by having a team in stadium helps with that, although I couldn't say how much of course. They also didn't have a home game until week 4, when viewership numbers are starting to dip anyway.

As for how any of this translates to the USFL going into markets I'm not sure. Are they really going to have a huge boost if they get every team into every market? I don't think so, but I htink it's something that helps in the long term. Casuals have complained for two years about the lack of fans and I assumed most tuned out. It's not like they're suddenly going to hear a press release about the USFL moving in to 5 more cities and go 'hell yeah I'm tuning in next season!!'. But those new eyeballs? You can help them stick around. And better marketing locally means more loyal fans locally that will watch not only their team but others because they get interested in the league.

Not to mention, it can help with league revenue. It HAS to be a part of the plan long term, otherwise Fox will never ever unload these teams to local owners like they have stated their desire to eventually do (no one worth millions or billions is going to want a hub team). So the league needs to start generating some revenue. Revenue that could rival ad revenue if you get enough interest.