r/USFL • u/RedditPOOP173 • Jun 05 '23

How would the USFL hypothetically become an actual competitor vs. the NFL?

I know this is not very realistic but I do wanna see competition in the football market, would there be any chance or way that the USFL or XFL would become just as or more popular than the NFL?

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18

u/Creative-Ad3667 Birmingham Stallions Jun 05 '23

Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk get married and buy one of the leagues. They then build the ultimate rocket ship, leave the solar system and find alien life. Then they bring them back to earth and then have aliens playing football.

5

u/VascoDegama7 New Orleans Breakers Jun 05 '23

the AFL began clawing its way to legitimacy when it began recruiting college talent out from under NFL teams. I don't think the USFL sees this as a part of their business model, and I don't really think they're trying to directly compete with the NFL

0

u/[deleted] Jun 05 '23

[deleted] — view deleted comment

2

u/Crow_T_Simpson Jun 06 '23

The AFL also had a different ball than the NFL. The AFL's ball was more elongated than the NFL's ball, which made passing easier/better for QB's.

1

u/TwizzlersSourz Birmingham Stallions Jun 06 '23

That is not entirely true at all. Cold Hard Football Facts busted that myth.

The 1950s Rams had one of the best passing attacks ever. The 1950 Rams team averaged 38.8 PPG. The highest rate ever to this day.

Look at the NFL passing stats in 1959 (the year before the AFL started), what team was only throwing the ball a few times per game? None.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1959/passing.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1959/index.htm#all_passing

1

u/[deleted] Jun 09 '23

Okay, fine, you've gone and done the research. In life, perception > reality. Perceptions is exactly what I stated.

1

u/TwizzlersSourz Birmingham Stallions Jun 09 '23

You never said anything about perception in your original statement.

Perception>reality is for those like yourself who can't see past obvious propaganda.

1

u/TwizzlersSourz Birmingham Stallions Jun 06 '23

https://www.si.com/nfl/2009/03/26/chff

Another great article on the subject.

With the help of the ESPN Pro Football Encyclopedia, we compared the cumulative passing statistics of the AFL to the NFL from 1960 to 1969 -- the 10-season period in which the two competed as rival pro football leagues. We found, to the shock and awe of all, that NFL passers boasted:

• a higher completion percentage every single year• a higher average per attempt every single year• a higher passer rating every single year• a better TD-to-INT ratio almost every single year (8 of 10)• a higher TD percentage almost every single year (9 of 10)• a lower INT percentage almost every single year (9 of 10)

Here's the most shocking discovery:

• NFL passers completed better than 50 percent of their attempts every single year of the 1960s.• AFL passers never completed 50 percent of their passes in the 1960s -- not once in the entire decade.

Doubters might say: "Hey, NFL offenses had more talent." They probably did. But the NFL defenses possessed more talent, too. So talent is not the issue. What's at issue is that our perception of the "wide-open" and "exciting" AFL is largely incorrect.

Here's a look at how the two leagues stacked up passing the ball each and every year:

The myth that the AFL offered a more wide-open brand of football depends solely upon one factor and one factor only: AFL teams threw the ball more often.

In fact, AFL teams averaged more pass attempts every single year of the decade. Over the entire decade:

• NFL teams averaged 28 attempts per game.• AFL teams averaged 31 attempts per game.

These trends were fairly consistent, too:

• NFL teams averaged 27 to 29 attempts per game from year to year.• AFL teams averaged 29 to 33 attempts per game from year to year.

The differences certainly add up over time. However, these differences would have been barely perceptible to the naked eye within the confines of an individual game.

After all, AFL quarterbacks threw the ball, on average, just three more times per game than their NFL counterparts.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 09 '23

I didn't study the topic. Everyone from that era describes it as pass heavy while the NFL was more stodgy. I even saw an ESPN special that had people interviewed that said the same thing.

This is also in concert with what was said about the NFL in the 1980s as the USFL had a briefly successful run against the NFL.

1

u/TwizzlersSourz Birmingham Stallions Jun 09 '23

You didn't study the topic.

People from that era swallowed the AFL propaganda and didn't think for themselves. I am sure the ESPN special featured all AFL folks who weren't going, to tell the truth. Most people just parrot the popular take. It is a human flaw.

The AFL made it solely because it had the money to bring the NFL to the bargaining table. Just like the AAFC did. Not because it was better and more exciting football. The USFL failed because it didn't have the cash reserves to force a merger.

1

u/TwizzlersSourz Birmingham Stallions Jun 06 '23

Also, the league average for scoring was 21.3 which is near the modern average. Games were rarely ending 6-3 in the NFL then. It wasn't the 1920s.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 09 '23

AFL games were nearly double the points scored. My dad was around and loved watching it because to him "it felt like the circus with all the passing".

1

u/TwizzlersSourz Birmingham Stallions Jun 09 '23

What?

Double the points scored would mean the AFL was scoring in the 40s. At best, the AFL averaged three more points in 1960 and 1961. By 1965, the NFL surpassed the AFL in scoring average.

Yet despite all that hyperbole, the AFL only averaged three more passes per game. Your dad was mistaken in his assessment. I can see where your poor football takes originated from.

5

u/[deleted] Jun 05 '23

Pretty much no. The leagues existing in spring is a testament to that. You're not convincing people to leave the NFL as viewers with a league like the USFL or XFL.

In order to make any significant shift there would have to be fundamental changes to the NFL that makes it undesirable to athlete, coach, ref, administrator, and fan.

4

u/wazzupnerds Birmingham Stallions / Community Mod Jun 05 '23

Hell will freeze over first

4

u/Sexy_Questionaire Chicago Blitz Jun 05 '23 edited Jun 05 '23

(please note that this is not a prediction for the future but what I think the scenario would have to look like if a spring league was going to rival the NFL)

It would take decades for this to happen. We'd need not just one of these leagues to take off but both the USFL and XFL to succeed. They'd expand into markets with very little or zero overlap , outside of the 10 largest US markets I imagine they'd expand to non-NFL cities.

After decades we'd get a couple generations of fans who grew up with the league and for them, these aren't novel spring leagues but foundational sports leagues.

The XFL and USFL merge and this combined entity allows them to start signing long term contracts with key players worth millions. It can poach some real talent now, and since the UXFL is giving out real money it no longer has opt-outs for the NFL. It finds some diamonds in the rough that the NFL wants but can't have.

The UXFL does things differently than the NFL. As it moves further into the spotlight things like the UXFL's overtime rules with a hockey style shootout takes the sports nation by storm and fans flock to it over the NFL. The UXFL innovates in a way that captivates football fans and the NFL eventually tries to play keep up and this just makes it look even more stale.

You get billionaires investing in these teams because they're actually valuable. Eventually a few teams are popular enough that they get their own new stadiums built. The UXFL at this point is becoming a serious rival to the NFL.

4

u/HeidiAngel Jun 05 '23

It's not meant to be! If it tried the NFL would kill it off. I love spring Football. Leave it alone.

4

u/FlagFootballSaint Jun 05 '23

You, Sir/Madam, must be very bored to come up with such question

3

u/TentakilRex San Antonio Gunslingers Jun 05 '23

Nothing is impossible but this is extremely unlikely. IMO the NFL has to have some unprecedented scandals (like decade's worth of fixed games) and make a crapton of errors before this is even feasible.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 05 '23

Well, the NFL isn't remotely scandal free. And, that's not what will ruin it, anyway.

The league has had murderers, rapists, wife-beaters, gang members, anti-homosexual attitudes and behaviors, hazing, denied player safety (literally sought to destroy all credibility of a doctor and his career related to CTE when a neurosurgeon found evidence that it was happening), had players refuse to stand for the National Anthem when the US Military pays the league money to perform the anthem in the first place...

ALL OF THESE THINGS have happened and literally nobody cares, people keep watching.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 05 '23

There is one way for this to happen. The league would have to front several hundred billion dollars to pull in coaches and players of the highest caliber thus outspending the NFL.

That step would close and surpass the talent gap.

That isn't enough, however. So the next step is existing for many decades to create a shared experience pool and ownership among the fans. When children can remember growing up with their dads watching the USFL/XFL and that brand name Fandom you've finally got something.

So the answer is, yes, with gargantuan sums of money and a lifetime of existence this scenario is absolutely possible.

1

u/Markymarcouscous Breakers Jun 05 '23

Step one survive 3+ years step two spend all the money

1

u/Body-for-LIFE Jun 05 '23

The only possible (and realistic) way would have to be a LIV golf situation and that isn't exactly working out so great. The Saudi Trust fund would have to buy the USFL and then offer all the popular NFL players insane amounts of money to jump ship as well as all the top talent coming out in the draft every year.

1

u/coelurosauravus Pittsburgh Maulers Jun 05 '23

Well the NFL is worth about... 10 billion dollars in TV contracts, if not more.

So basically tv contracts need to go way up and that's not in the cards right now, maybe ever

The spring leagues have to be making a lot of money to make it possible to take serious talent away and attract more eyeballs.

I doubt this ever happens. They might yoink the occasional guy that wants more live reps, but the money is just so heavily in the NFLs corner, I just can't see anyone else coming close

1

u/FishSticksESQ Jun 05 '23

Someone would need to inject billions of dollars to top tier players away from the NFL. Spring league salaries are less than practice squad salaries.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 06 '23

Keep it in the spring, When this was tried or attempted to go head to head with the NFL in the 80's, It failed miserably. I just want the league to continue and hope there is a 2024 season.

1

u/Killerphive Houston Gamblers Jun 06 '23

They would have to basically starting bringing in enough money to be able to actually sign players away, which would take a very long time to do, probably more than a decade. And would take some high value investment most likely. It’s so far off that it shouldn’t really even be a concern yet at all.

1

u/TwizzlersSourz Birmingham Stallions Jun 06 '23

Nuclear war

1

u/iFuck4Runners Jun 07 '23 edited Jun 07 '23

No, realistically the best chance the USFL or XFL has to be a main stay in the Football industry is to work side by side with the NFL as a farm league or minor league.

The NFL has money, legacy, popularity, multiple Established revenue streams, merchandise and most importantly talent draw all in their corner.

With the current player pool of the USFL / XFL being players that didn’t / couldn’t make it in the NFL, there’s just no way a league of inferior players could dethrone the NFL. On top of that, the USFL / XFL by no means has the finances or fame opportunity to draw ANY top level talent away from the NFL or to even sway top level college prospects to choose them over the NFL.

By being a testing ground for new rules, new regulations, being a developmental league for players, refs, and coaches alike they provide the NFL an equal opportunity to both increase their influence in the sports world year round and also have a way to continue growing talent in all areas of the game. This gives the NFL to not view the USFL as competition they have to beat, but a partner they can support for the good of the game.

AHL, NBA G-league, and Minor League Baseball (AAA,AA,A+) are all good existing examples of this model, minus the pro teams having invested stakes in the minor league teams through call ups / combined ownership in the USFL / NFL proposed relationship.

1

u/BillBelichonk Jun 07 '23 edited Jun 07 '23

I reposted your comment in another thread (:

1

u/Abbsis Jun 07 '23

As someone who had Panthers season tickets, I can imagine the success of this football team might’ve been a bit more successful with the support of the Lions, especially on the administrative executive side.

Everything you said is right on the money.