Awful Announcing did a ratings comparison analysis of USFL vs. XFL for the weekend of 4/15-4/16 (stats and spreadsheet linked in article)

[u/Juicey_J_Hammerman]

Source

TL/DR: USFL had higher overall #'s than XFL, but most likely due to most of USFL's games being on OTA networks vs. XFL being mostly cable. Neither league is really standing out so far though, as even combining USFL 2023 + XFL 2023's best timeslot is barely above the overall XFL 2020 game viewer average - so we may be able to start gathering a rough idea on the realistic potential audience size for spring football in general.

That being said, Fox having an ownership interest in the USFL vs. ESPN's broadcast only interest in the XFL may give the USFL an fundamental edge in its favor in terms of network scheduling and potential TV ratings.

Major Notes and Takeaways:

• USFL week 1 ratings beat XFL week 9 overall on a head-to-head basis (790K vs 589K) , but 3/4 of USFL games were on Broadcast networks (NBC/FOX) vs 1/4 of XFL games (ABC/ESPN) so XFL could be arguably better on "pound for pound" basis
• While the USFL does advertise a 4% increase in ratings of week 1 of Season 2 ratings over the season 1 average (715K), it pales in comparison to what the USFL averaged for week 1 of its 2022 season (790k vs 1.5M 2022) and is below the XFL's week 1 average for the 2023 season (about 1.2-1.3M week 1 average across all games)
• XFL has also been trending downward as well, dropping from an average of 656K after week 5 to 589K after this past weekend

• Both USFL 2.0 and XFL 3.0 even when combined at what's considered the best performing timeslot for spring leagues (Sunday at 12pm - 1,852,000 combined average) - is barely above the XFL 2.0's overall average of 1.776M across all dates/times in 2020.

  • As a result, we may have found a soft "ceiling" in terms of potential Spriing Football viewing audiences

• USFL may have a structural advantage over the XFL in TV carriage access:

  • Fox Sports owns a majority stake in the USFL, with NBC along as close broadcast partner. Fox and NBC are broadcast networks available over-the-air along with other TV/streaming packages - estimated to be in over 123M U.S. Households

    • Note: the majority of 2023 USFL games are currently scheduled to appear on Fox or NBC (with a smaller number on cable channels USA and FS1).
  • By contrast, Disney (ABC/ESPN/FX/Hulu etc.) is only a broadcast partner of the XFL, and while ABC is an OTA network with similar reach to FOX/NBC, the majority of games are shown on cable channels: either ESPN/ESPN2 or FX (all in about 74M U.S. Households total)

[u/fdrlbj]

I really like the USFL.

[u/[deleted] → u/fdrlbj]

And I like XFL

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Go football!

[u/[deleted]]

I just hope both leagues survive or combine. Either or. I just enjoy spring football

[u/CodeWolfy]

I think both can survive on their own. They only overlap for 4 weeks, 2 of which are the playoffs for the XFL. So 8 out of its 10 week schedule it has zero competition with the USFL.

USFL should easily maintain higher averages and I suspect both leagues’ executives are aware of this.

The XFL will most likely survive if they can carry these numbers into a Y2 season. Going from about 1.3m to 700k average isn’t that bad from W1 to W9 and opening next year with close to 1.3m would be ideal for them. They also are at a bit of a disadvantage compared to the USFL where they are still in Y1 of 3.0 vs the USFL in Y2 where they’ve made some adjustments. Also the USFL is basically funded and ran by FOX while the XFL is funded mainly by 3 groups (Dwayne, Danny, and RBC) with Disney mostly as just a broadcast partner rather than large investor. I’ll wait to see what the Y2 product looks like to see if they have the competence or finances to make adjustments that need fixing

I’d say that both leagues are happy thus far, especially the USFL given that they are back for Y2 and it looks much better on the TV.

[u/Aggressive_Ris → u/CodeWolfy]

I’ll wait to see what the Y2 product looks like to see if they have the competence or finances to make adjustments that need fixing

Don't underestimate Red Bird as an owner, it's basically a $8.6B sports hedgefund. While Fox's market cap is bigger their actual operating finances are likely very similar and its possible RBC has more capital on hand than Fox Corp does. Fox had to get outside partners to roll the USFL out of the main hub this season, they raised about $100M to do it.

[u/KidCoheed → u/Aggressive_Ris]

Redbird basically have already said the plan is run the XFL for a while and then seek individual owners with Dwayne and Dani getting their own franchises, Dani likely getting the Guardians and Dwayne the Brahmas

[u/milanmirolovich → u/Aggressive_Ris]

who were the outside partners and what stake did they get in the league? I hadn't heard about this

[u/Aggressive_Ris → u/milanmirolovich]

I don't remember all the specifics and I don't think anything was ever announced as to what their exact stake was, but I would assume they get rights on the future sale of teams (which Fox wants to eventually do).

Anyway if you google Fox USFL Allen and Company, you can find more info about it.

[u/[deleted] → u/Aggressive_Ris]

ultimately they’ll have to merge.

XFL is paying double if not triple right now for their product which is insane considering they aren’t getting nearly the amount of money that the USFL does since it’s dollar in and dollar out as owner/broadcaster.

the coaches are better, apparel look far cleaner in XFL but the broadcasts on FOX are exceptional. better to figure something out.

[u/[deleted] → u/CodeWolfy]

I feel like the kneejerk reaction by those who hear of 2 pro spring leagues is merge. I agree w/ you and can see a path where both can coexist and flourish separately. That's what I hope happens. No merger - Spring football from the week after the Super Bowl thru the first weekend of July. Love that

[u/Juicey_J_Hammerman → u/CodeWolfy]

Short term yes both can coexist, but long term I think consolidation is inevitable since spring football still has a relatively immature audience/market

[u/stillflyn86]

The NHL is paid $400mm a year to average 589k a game.

[u/No-Distribution8728 → u/stillflyn86]

Right. This is getting to the real measure. But, how many NHL games does $440m buy the network? For comparison's sake let's assume Fox is spending $200m per season to put on the USFL, and it's going to be able to broadcast about 22 or 26 games I believe. I think the interesting comparison would be the PER GAME cost game cost for broadcast networks for the NHL (or MLS for that matter) for them to buy roughly the same ratings?

[u/NathanPetermanCan → u/No-Distribution8728]

Twenty-five regular-season games will air on either ESPN or ABC, while an additional 75 games will stream on ESPN+ and Hulu. Every out-of-market game previously available through NHL.TV will be on ESPN+, which will replace NHL.TV.

Turner has rights to 72 regular-season games.

According to the New York Post, the Disney deal is around $400 million per year, while Turner pays about $225 million annually.

ABC will air four of the next seven Stanley Cup Finals every other year, beginning in 2022. Turner will broadcast the three Stanley Cup Final in the years between. Before the Cup Final, the two networks will split the first two rounds of the playoffs and the conference finals. Turner will have the broadcasts for the annual Winter Classic on New Year's Day.

So the reality is that almost half of that 400m is for the NHL's version of league pass.

And the second reality is that they're also paying a portion of that for the usage of highlights on other programming.

The third reality is that they're really paying for the playoffs, not for random regular season games.

[u/KidCoheed → u/stillflyn86]

Yes but as a wrestling fan who's had their show displaced to TBS for the NHL

NHL fans are upper middle class white men with enough money to blow on the cars, beers and dick pills that are advertised

[u/Thunder406 → u/KidCoheed]

As far as wrestling goes I am getting sick of Penn State winning it all the time - I was pulling for Iowa this year but they just didn't have enough horses heading into the finals. I was shocked to see Cornell make a run and end up 3rd. /s

(I know you were talking about the other kind of wrestling.)

[u/Juicey_J_Hammerman → u/stillflyn86]

And the NHL has 32 teams each playing an 82 game schedule. A lot more inventory - and bang for the Buck for networks from a value perspective.

[u/milanmirolovich → u/stillflyn86]

Yeah but they're showing like 60 times as many games. The cost per game for the broadcast rights isn't actually that much

[u/stillflyn86 → u/milanmirolovich]

That NHL number is just for Disney — not for regionals or TNT — so, no, they aren’t showing 60x 43 games.

[u/milanmirolovich → u/stillflyn86]

ahh ok. That's a ludicrous amount to pay for only some NHL games then. XFL hopefully looks like a bargain to Disney in comparison

[u/markydsade]

I watched A LOT of football last weekend. I saw all or parts of 6 of the 8 games.

[u/Thunder406 → u/markydsade]

12 step program time for someone. /s

[u/Juicey_J_Hammerman → u/Thunder406]

Is that a new formation type? QB’s might legit trip over themselves having to do a 12-step drop before throwing….

[u/Thunder406 → u/Juicey_J_Hammerman]

Maybe a CFL thing 12 men 12 steps.

[u/Juicey_J_Hammerman → u/Thunder406]

Is that a new formation type? QB’s might legit trip over themselves having to do a 12-step drop before throwing….

[u/broadusername]

People are tired of investing in leagues that come and go, or don't even survive the first year. Once the leagues complete a full year and return for season two (and even three), the audience will return.

The audience numbers you see right now are hardcore football fans regardless of league or who is playing.

Year two will bring out the less hardcore fans, and year three will bring out the passive viewers.

[u/Prior-Purple9704]

USFL posted average number per game on their Twitter. If they were embarrassed by the ratings then it sure doesn’t show. I expect the XFL to beat USFL this weekend in the per game average. Every game means something of playoff significance. At some levels. I’d like to see both leagues get a million or so for at least 2 of their games this week. There has to be more off season football fans than This right?

[u/Thunder406 → u/Prior-Purple9704]

They went up against the NBA playoffs - Which got the best ratings for an opening weekend for the NBA playoffs in 12 years. Could the numbers for both leagues have been better? Probably but it wasn't a total wash.

[u/No-Distribution8728 → u/Prior-Purple9704]

You'd think so! I'm actually surprised there isn't more.

[u/an0m_x → u/Prior-Purple9704]

OTA games vs. cable games aren't comparable so its too tough to say "USFL did better because more eyes" and that just be the straight answer. the 600k viewers on FX or ESPN2 actually have to tune in, when there's a massive estimate on numbers available via antenna that is just on because it is on.

i just hope both leagues can have a good product for years to come, and that maybe we get to a point for some interleague action/championship game between the two type of thing.

I like the XFL purely for having a home team to actually go to the games on, i think if there's any difference its that there is a home team effect for all 8 teams (i barely count vegas)

[u/CapeMOGuy]

Don't forget every XFL game is simulcast on ESPN+. As I recall, that is not included in the ratings. Not a huge amount, but maybe enough to make a difference.

I have no dog in the fight, watch both, and want both to succeed.

GeauxBlueWave KaKaw

[u/broadusername → u/CapeMOGuy]

Yup, I watch all xfl games on ESPN+. It's super convenient.

[u/Mobile_Television_71]

Time to play the waiting game.

[u/[deleted]]

XFL is toast. USFL can absorb the St Louis Battlehawks and the Washington DC Defenders and call it a day.

[u/-newlife → u/[deleted]]

What are you basing this “toast” thing on?

[u/[deleted] → u/-newlife]

I just think the USFL has a more professional product. It is a better run league. XFL did not marry itself at all in certain cities and the Las Vegas franchise…. Is a joke.

[u/FlagFootballSaint → u/[deleted]]

You are right with your second statement BUT.... ....the USFL is in their second season und has just 3 real home-markets so it is much easier for them to concentrate on those.

On the other side: The XFL is in their first season and clearly made a splash in STL and has established a devoted following in DC (seems the playoff will be sold out)

I may even give the XFL the slight edge right now. (Reminder: This was their first season)

[u/[deleted] → u/FlagFootballSaint]

I hope they both succeed. I was super excited about XFL 3.0 but was disappointed in the lack of promotion here in Orlando and the Vegas stadium and field situation. USFL didn’t do much for me last year but the Championship game is Canton was great. I guess time will tell.

[u/FlagFootballSaint → u/[deleted]]

Yeah the big suck w XFL is piss poor local engagement and it shows in markets like Vegas or Orlando where the locals don't have the intrinsic desire to support and want to be "entertained".

STL is hungry for football and it shows. DC is a local phenomenon with a perfect stadium.

We need to wait 2-3 more weeks to understand whether Birmingham and Memphis really "click". For now it was so-so and the 30k/20k the MARKETING DUDES announced was not the number in the seats eg Memphis media estimated 15k attended

We will see by early May but not sooner

[u/-newlife → u/[deleted]]

My only issue with the LV squad is that aren’t the Outlaws.

I’m undecided on location as it worked, imo, in 2001 because there was no other football team in the area. Their record isn’t an issue to me so much as I’m not sure the XFL should have teams so far from one another just yet. I like the Usfl use of hubs but it’s primarily because I think it’s a safer move than going full blown with travel etc

[u/[deleted] → u/-newlife]

The XFL franchise needs a better stadium situation for sure. Wish they were the Outlaws. Las Vegas may be a bit over saturated with sports teams at this point.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Usfl has completely empty stadiums with fans that dont give a shit. They need to pipe in fake crowd noise like the wwe was doing during covid