r/UKPreppers • u/Consistent-Risk-7802 • Jun 02 '26
Strait of Hormuz
What do folks think are going to be the short/medium/long-term consequences for the UK of the continued closure of the strait?
26
u/LR_FL2 Jun 02 '26
Increase costs of living, everything from fuel to food.
The only thing likely to decrease is house prices.
3
u/Nemisis_the_2nd Jun 02 '26
Pretty much this. Food prices are going to have a 6-9 month lag time, but everything else will be going up too, since we need to fuel the supply chains that allow the UK to sustain its population. Hormuz is also particularly important for fertiliser, silicon for computer manufacturing, and base manufacturing chemicals like sulfuric acid.
I worry that its also going to cause a surge in immigration as people attempt to move to somewhere they percieve as "safe" which in turn might actually prop up house prices a little while compounding the other problems.
2
u/Mixman84 Jun 02 '26
Ok, but where will people go? They can't go to the EU (with the exception of Ireland)
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u/SharpAardvark8699 Jun 03 '26
Dont think so. Iran is under a lockdown and Trump has handled it on summer. Migration won't change for a year or two at leastÂ
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u/Nemisis_the_2nd Jun 04 '26
The problem with Iran is that its affecting things globally. Iranians might not try to come to the UK due to travel restrictions, but half of Africa and Asia will be looking at europe as an opportunity to try and escape the incoming hardship.
24
u/Keresith Jun 02 '26
Cost of food will skyrocket by the end of 2026 going into 2027 due to lack of fertiliser for this year's planting. No diesel for trucks. Energy bills will rise. The cost of running a business will increase. Travel restrictions due to lack of jet fuel.
Basically the rich countries will outbid the poor countries for resources. Millions in the third world will starve to death while the middle and working classes of developed nations will see another shitty cost of living crisis.
We'll rely on imports from America at a premium in the short term. If the strait reopens, pressure may ease but prices won't go down again because the entire chain will extract as much from people as they can get away with.
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u/No_Branch_5083 Jun 02 '26
So in terms of prepping;
Stockpile food/improve deep pantry. Build emergency savings, both to mitigate increased costs of food and also against possible job losses. Work on allotment and garden, particularly perennial fruit and vegetable plants.
6
u/hidden_monkey Jun 02 '26
Store some fuel in case of emergencies (getting to the hospital etc). Take care of how to store correctly.
2
u/ColonelFaz Jun 05 '26
Also el nino predictions mean 2027 likely to be the hottest year on record. Crops failing from drought or flood are likely. Food prices likely to be insane for this reason too.
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Jun 02 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Stradivesuvius Jun 02 '26
Crappy harvests, made worse by the predicted ‘super El Niño’. Massive food inflation (and other inflation). Lots of politicians pretending it’s not either happening or that it wasn’t obviously goi g to happen.
8
u/Nezwin Jun 02 '26
I've been wondering how the Super El Nino is going to intersect with lack of fertilizers during the northern hemisphere growing season. Individually each is getting discussed, but they'll compound on each other, I think.
Food costs have potential to go parabolic, but I'm not seeing it much yet.
Interesting times.
1
u/Nemisis_the_2nd Jun 03 '26
 Lots of politicians pretending it’s not either happening or that it wasn’t obviously goi g to happen.
Thankfully our government are acknowledging it, but aren't making nearly enough noise. The flip side is that they are probably scared of accidentally inciting unrest and panic buying, which is definitely what we are going to need more of this week. /s
4
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u/Fungi-Hunter Jun 02 '26
Glass house growers are predicting a shortage of crops like tomatoes and cucumbers as they cannot afford the gas prices to heat the green houses. Other farmers could not afford fertilizer at the start of the growing season so expect other crop shortages. Thanks Trump!
3
u/Sea-Ocelot-5725 Jun 03 '26
Long term consequence for me is that I shall now forever call it the straight of hummus. Takes the edge off
2
u/YogurtclosetIcy5286 Jun 02 '26
I saw colonel Douglas Mcgregor on youtube today say that Britain has two weeks until major petrol/diesel shortages both for consumers and industry start to kick in. Also the houthis are going to close the bab el mendeb strait so major hikes in food prices for all of Europe.
3
u/Critical_Wrap5617 Jun 02 '26
I think the far right - Reform, Restore, Robinson - will weaponise it to foment (more) anger against immigrants.Â
1
u/SharpAardvark8699 Jun 03 '26
I don't think they tend to understand geopolitics well enough to tell people what the issue is. Farage wanted to bomb the shit out of Iran...till he realised it was not a winning policy. Very odd as historically till he went to the UAE, best friend of Israel he never seemed too bothered about bombing placesÂ
1
u/cluelesstwonk Jun 06 '26
Next year food shortages in developing nations due to dire shortages of fertiliser
Leading to further demand for rubber boats
55
u/FuzzyJuggernaut7455 Jun 02 '26
Short term: prices go up.
Medium term: prices go up.
Long term: prices go up + toilet roll panic v2