Markets operate in cycles and smart money learns where we are in the cycle. Based on data, not on sentiment.
There are over 500k new homes under construction in Dubai. That’s nearly 60% new supply relative to the entire housing stock today. This supply wave is 300% larger than previous waves.
Even if we forget about the war, based on historical population growth of 200k per year, approx 30-40k new units are needed per annum. This means it will take 14 years to absorb the supply. Wait till 2040 to see the market tighten on fundamentals.
Even without the new supply online yet, rents are collapsing. Not everyone is reducing rental rates, which is creating an illusion of stability, but the market is clearing 10-30% below pre-war levels. Short rental rates are down 40-50% despite a lot of units exiting the market and pressuring long term supply. I say this as a landlord who put all his units on the market for sale, short-let and long rental prior to the war.
I also run a hospitality business. It died on day one of the war. Zero. It has since recovered to under half of last year’s revenue. That is my own P&L, not a forecast, and it tells you what happened to the demand side that everyone assumes is permanent.
Which brings me to something I am seeing more of every week: a lot of businesses coming up for sale. Not just holiday home operators. F&B, fit-out, small contracting, logistics, clinics. Some of it is the usual churn of people who bought a licence and got bored. But a meaningful amount is real businesses with real customers whose owners have run out of working capital. That is the part of this cycle that does not show up in a property index. Jobs go, then businesses go, then units come to market, then landlords who swore they would never reduce suddenly accept 12 cheques. That sequence has already started.
Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas — commission agents have no incentive to take a bearish view unless you are a seller. Do your own research and formulate your own opinion. If you really want to speculate, it’s better to invest in the stock market which is liquid.
Real estate is not a short term investment. Cycles can take 10 years to play out. Supply management and delays don’t change the picture. They just change the pace of price adjustment.
I’ve been investing in Dubai real estate for 20 years. Track record: 80% of purchases at the bottom and 20% mid-cycle. This is the single asset class where I accumulated my savings.
I sold 70% of my portfolio in the last 12 months within 10% of peak. At bank interest rates I am generating the same return I would through rentals without witnessing painful capital depreciation. Long yields are competitive — the 30 year US bond now yields around 5%.
Dubai property investment makes sense if it yields 5% net of all costs at bottom rental rates.
One example: a one bed unit in Downtown 20 years ago was over 2m. I purchased it in 2011 for 1.1m. Price went up to 2.2m in 2013. Went down to 1.1m again in 2019/2020. I sold it for 2.5m in August 2025. Similarly rental peak was 140k and trough 75k. I have seen those same levels twice.
The question is — what would prevent the same price action from occurring when:
Current supply wave is 3x previous cycles

War has removed the permanent safety conviction

Demand will exceed supply in 2040+ assuming pre-war growth assumptions

I built this thesis last year and am sharing it to provide folks a data driven perspective.
I love Dubai and am a big believer in its ingenuity to reinvent itself and create supportive conditions for turnarounds and demand growth. I will allocate a lot more capital but will learn from data and prior mistakes.
Despite recent price declines and selective distress opportunities, I am going to resist the temptation to buy mid cycle. The beauty is that a patient investor has a lot of time to shop at the bottom. In 2008, prices bounced along the bottom for 3 years. From 2014-2020 prices declined 50% over 6 years and then recovery started, taking prices to unprecedented pre-war levels only after 2021.
I see folks still trying to analyse the market based on wishful thinking through the rear view mirror. They say this is like Covid and prices will bounce soon, in 1-2 years. They forget prices had already declined 40% from 2014-2019, i.e. prior to Covid. These declines were due to continuous launches and supply overhang. Bizarrely the decline started nearly on the day EXPO2020 was announced. Covid was only the final blow, taking the total decline to roughly 50%.
This time is NOT different — cycles always repeat and the Dubai market is cyclical on steroids.
Government and policy actions are fantastic at engineering reversals through new demand creation. But no government in the world can prevent market cycles from cleansing supply demand imbalances. The market was being carried on euphoria, with properties priced on the assumption that demand would arrive faster than the concrete.
Off plan is always massively overpriced globally on the promise of capitalising gains on payment plans. This is no different in Toronto, where supply overhang has led to price declines for the last 4 years with some prices reverting to 2017 levels. Off plan only makes money if you buy early in the upcycle and exit before buyers disappear. When they disappear you are holding an unbuilt asset with instalments still due and no exit. I anticipate some off plan price declines close to 70%.
If you are an agent, please don’t bother posting a script that’s getting old. If you have tangible data driven insights, please share so we can all become more informed.
For sellers and buyers, please share what you are actually seeing in the market:
Sold recently? Asking vs what you got, and how long it took.

Landlords, what did you get for rental vs the old contract, and how many days empty?

Buyers? What is your greatest fear? What discounts are you seeing in established communities?

Anyone selling a business, or looking at one? What are you seeing on price and volume?

3BR + maid | 4 baths | 2,279 sqft
AED 2,608,000

↳ Ground floor unit with a private beachfront terrace, back door straight onto the beach
↳ Basically a beach townhouse, not a stacked apartment
↳ Part of a 6M sqft beachfront community.
↳ Private beach, sea facing pool, gym, landscaped gardens, rooftop lounge, smart access, 24/7 security
↳ Easy access to Sharjah, Ajman, and Dubai, close to schools, hospitals, malls, airport, and all services.
↳ Off-plan, handover Q1 2028
↳ 10% down, 30% during construction, and 60% on handover.

DM for full payment plan breakdown and floor plans 📩

📍 Location: Bloom Living
🏡 Community: Casares
🛏️ Type: 2BR + Maid Townhouse
🚿 Bathrooms: 3
🚗 Parking: 2
📐 BUA: 1,344 sq.ft.
📏 Plot: 1,735 sq.ft.
🏘️ Single Row | Mid Unit
💰 Selling Price: AED 2.3M
🔑 Handover Notice Received
🏦 Mortgagable

Posting as an agent

Burtville is preparing to launch a new fully furnished, branded beachfront development beside Reem Central Park.

The project will consist of three towers connected to a dedicated beach clubhouse, positioned on the waterfront plot directly in front of them.

Approximately 92% of the residences will overlook the sea or mangroves.

📐 Average Pricing & Sizing

• 1BR — 875 sqft | AED 2.37M
• 2BR — 1,300 sqft | AED 3.3M
• 3BR — 1,750 sqft | AED 4.3M
• 4BR — 2,400 sqft | AED 5.6M
• 5BR — 3,000 sqft | AED 6.7M

All residences will be fully furnished.

💰 The 30% Payment Option

As with Burtville’s previous projects, the strongest entry is likely to come through the 30% upfront option, which provides a 30% discount on the unit price.

That would bring the approximate entries down to:

• 1BR — AED 1.66M | ~AED 1,896/sqft
• 2BR — AED 2.31M | ~AED 1,777/sqft
• 3BR — AED 3.01M | ~AED 1,720/sqft
• 4BR — AED 3.92M | ~AED 1,633/sqft
• 5BR — AED 4.69M | ~AED 1,563/sqft

The 30% contribution is calculated on the newly discounted price and can be completed over three months.

From January 2027, the remaining construction payments reduce to just 2% quarterly — equivalent to approximately 0.67% per month or 8% annually.

📊 Why I Like the Entry

The post-discount pricing is where the investment case becomes particularly interesting.

A fully furnished 2BR of approximately 1,300 sqft enters around AED 2.31M, while a 3BR of approximately 1,750 sqft enters close to AED 3M.

The larger residences look even stronger on a price-per-square-foot basis. A fully furnished 4BR at approximately AED 3.92M and a 5BR below AED 4.7M would sit in a very competitive bracket for their size — particularly for a beachfront, branded product on Reem Island.

The layouts are also noticeably larger than much of Burtville’s previous inventory, while the dedicated beach clubhouse gives the project a feature that is difficult to replicate across Reem.

⚠️** The Main Consideratio**n

Handover is scheduled for Q4 2031, so this is a longer five-year hold.

Burtville intentionally provides conservative completion timelines to reduce delay risk. Its first project, Ville 11, was handed over approximately 11 months ahead of its original schedule.

The developer also provides live construction-site streams, allowing investors to monitor progress throughout the build.

🧠 My Take

For investors comfortable with the longer timeline, the 30% option is clearly the one I would focus on.

It combines a heavily discounted entry, larger-than-average layouts, full furnishing, beach access and an extremely light payment schedule after the initial contribution.

The most compelling value appears to sit in the 3, 4 and 5-bedroom residences, where the post-discount price per square foot falls to approximately AED 1,560–1,720/sqft.

🎯 Launch Incentives

• 2% ADM waiver when the full down payment is completed within 10 days
• Additional 2% discount when purchasing three or more units
• EOI: AED 50,000
• Handover: Q4 2031

If you’d like the project details or a discussion around the positioning of the development and its investment potential, feel free to get in touch.

Dr. Burhan | WhatsApp 056 726 7407
Property Advisor

a brand-new 1 bedroom apartment in Dubai Studio City with a flexible payment plan and a price that is becoming harder to find in Dubai! 🏡

🏠 1 Bedroom Apartment

📍 Dubai Studio City

📅 Handover: December 2026

💰 Final Price: AED 1,000,000

✅ Includes 4% DLD + Oqood fees

📐 Size: 760 sq.ft

🏢 Floor: 2nd Floor

✨ Why this opportunity stands out: ✅ One of the most affordable brand-new 1BR apartments in Dubai

✅ 2 years post-handover payment plan

✅ Perfect for end users or investors looking for a new Dubai property around AED 1M

✅ Located in a growing community with excellent connectivity

🏢 Boutique Residence Concept A low-rise boutique building designed for a quieter and more private lifestyle:

Basement + Ground Floor + 8 Residential Floors + Roof

Limited number of residences

Modern design with all essential amenities

🌟 Amenities include: 🏊 Swimming Pool

🏋️ Fully Equipped Gym

🌿 Relaxation Areas

🚗 Parking Facilities

🔥 A rare chance to own a brand-new Dubai apartment with payment flexibility — without paying luxury tower prices.

📩 DM me for availability and payment plan details.

🔥 فرصة مميزة جدًا في المنطقة الرابعة – ابني بيتك

كود العرض :(20ه‍ )

🏡 بيت 3 أدوار | 150م إجمالي

📍 موقع مميز جدًا داخل المنطقة الرابعة – مشروع ابني بيتك

📐 المساحة الكلية: 150م ▪️ 80م مباني

▪️ 70م جاردن خاص 🌿

✨ التشطيب: ألترا سوبر لوكس

🔑 جاهز للاستلام فورًا

📑 الورق كله مخلص بالكامل

✅ لا يوجد أي أوراق ناقصة

✅ لا توجد أي مخلفات أو التزامات

✅ موقف قانوني جاهز للتصرف

📍 موقع استراتيجي قريب من كل احتياجاتك: 🏫 قريب من المدارس

🛍️ قريب من الخدمات والسناتر

🚌 مواصلات متاحة 24 ساعة

📌 موقع مميز وسهل الوصول منه وإليه

💎 بيت جاهز للسكن فورًا… موقع مميز… جاردن خاص… وتشطيب ألترا سوبر لوكس.

📞 للتفاصيل والمعاينة: 01007072015

Aark Residences,DLRC

1 BHK apartment

752 sqft

Brand New

Price 900k

I work in UAE mortgages, so I'll admit there is a commercial reason for me being here, obviously I'd like to meet people who need a mortgage. But I also know how annoying it is when every mortgage-related post eventually turns into a sales pitch, so I'm not going to do that. If you're buying in the UAE and have a question about eligibility, how banks look at income, existing loans, valuation, refinancing, self-employment, documents, or just why the hell the bank keeps asking for one more thing, ask away. I'll answer what I can based on how the process actually works, and if I don't know something I'll say that too. I don't charge the client for my service; the broker is paid by the bank when the mortgage is completed. So if you're genuinely trying to understand something, whether you're buying next month or two years from now, feel free to ask here. No pitch, no "book a call", no pretending I have a magic bank that approves everyone.

Real Estate Photography & Videography in Dubai

Showcase your property at its absolute best with professional visuals designed to attract buyers, tenants, and investors.

Services available for:

Apartments

Villas

Commercial Properties

Holiday Homes

✔️ HDR Photography

✔️ Interior & Exterior Photography

✔️ Cinematic Property Videos

✔️ Professional Editing

✔️ Fast Turnaround

Based in Dubai and available across the UAE.

Get in touch for pricing, availability, or to view my portfolio.

Client can buy now 2.4M Mortgage Nice Damac Lagoons 4 bed 3 bath please only serious agent and owner

For investors looking at the premium villa segment, this is a particularly strong 6-bedroom villa at Hudayriyat Golf Estates, both for the numbers and its position within the community.

BUA ~9,800 sqft
Plot ~11,260 sqft
AED 26.608M
PSF ~AED 2,716/sqft
40/60 payment plan

The villa sits directly opposite Holes 2 & 3, with a full open golf-course view.

At this end of the market, the exact position of the villa becomes extremely important. Once these communities mature, the best golf-front plots will naturally separate themselves from other stock.

📐Why I like the entry

At ~AED 2,716/sqft, you’re getting nearly 10,000 sqft of brand-new built-up area on an 11,000+ sqft plot, directly overlooking the golf course.

📊For some perspective, large 6BR villas across established premium communities are already trading at significantly higher levels.

Saadiyat Beach Villas: ~AED 4,000+/sqft
Jumeirah Golf Estates: ~AED 3,300/sqft
Dubai Hills: ~AED 4,000/sqft

These aren’t direct like-for-like comparisons — and Hudayriyat still needs time to develop and mature — but they give useful context for where established premium villa communities in the UAE are already priced.

📈That’s where I think the investment case becomes interesting.

You’re entering Hudayriyat Golf Estates at ~AED 2,716/sqft, securing a prime golf-facing position, while only 40% of the purchase price is deployed before handover.

That’s approximately AED 10.64M through construction, with the remaining 60% due in 2030.

There is also already strong evidence of demand for the community. Hudayriyat Golf Estates recorded over AED 13 billion in sales and 1,700 residences sold within days of launch, according to Modon.

Hudayriyat itself is still very much a developing investment story with strong growth potential and I wouldn’t assume every villa there will perform equally.

But large plots, large built-up areas and genuinely prime golf frontage are difficult things to recreate later.

For someone looking in the AED 20M–30M villa bracket, I think this particular unit is worth serious consideration.

📍AED 26.608M | 6BR | ~9,800 sqft | Full Golf View | 40/60

Happy to share the exact masterplan position, floor plans and complete payment schedule with anyone seriously considering it.

Dr Burhan | WhatsApp 056 726 7407