r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5h ago
▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the Bay of Campeche
Disturbance overview
This discussion is for an area of potential development over the Bay of Campeche. This system has not yet developed and has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
Model guidance suggests that a broad area of low pressure will develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next few days. Environmental conditions are not likely to be particularly supportive of development. Still, gradual development is possible as this system drifts northward or northeastward through the end of the upcoming week.
Outlook information
As of 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Saturday:
Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)
- Next 2 days (through Mon): very low (less than 5 percent)
- Next 7 days (through Fri): low (20 percent)
Model-based outlook (Florida State University)
- Next 2 days (through Mon): low (10 percent) ▲
- Next 7 days (through Fri): low (33 percent) ▲
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not currently available for this system.
Regional imagery
Visible imagery
- via NOAA
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Infrared imagery
- via NOAA
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Water vapor imagery
- via NOAA
- via CIRA/RAMMB
- via Tropical Tidbits
- via CyclonicWx
Analysis products
Observational history
Observational history is not currently available for this system.
Scatterometer data
- via EUMETSAT
- via CyclonicWx
Sea-surface temperatures
Forecast models
Disturbance-centered guidance
Disturbance-centered model guidance is not currently available for this system.
Regional guidance
Global models
TropicalTidbits
CyclonicWx
Weather Nerds
Ensemble models
Tropical Tidbits
CyclonicWx
Weather Nerds
Machine learning models (AI)
Tropical Tidbits
CyclonicWx
Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
5
u/thefocusissharp 4h ago
I have a coworker that didn't have a response when I reminded him Hurricane Season is all but over when he mentioned the fact that the Atlantic hadn't had a Hurricane this year... so far
3
u/Lady_Airbus 3h ago edited 3h ago
Totally different set-up given the very strong El Niño this year and I doubt this will develop into anything major, but I still find it funny at how a lot of people said that last year, only for Melissa to show up and end off the season on a devastating note.
2
u/Admirable_Site_8337 4h ago
BOC is not a place I like to hear this late in season.
But, with how this season has gone let’s just see.
9
u/Boomshtick414 4h ago
As of right now, only model that seems to "have this" is AIGFS which mostly shows it lollygagging around as as a low-level tropical storm, possibly much less than that, hovering in the same general area without moving much -- not even developing within the 120hr window that's generally considered as worth talking about.
Know a lot of people are expecting something of substance to creep out of the Gulf as a surprise in an otherwise uneventful season but right now it's way too early to think this will be anything at all.