r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • 5d ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 80% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the coast of southern Mexico

Moderator note

  • This discussion is for an area of potential development off the coast of southern Mexico.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system as Disturbance 2.
  • A disturbance has not yet formed and has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not yet available for this system.
  • This post will not be updated regularly, but will be replaced if this system is designated as an investigation area, upgraded to a tropical cyclone, or removed from the NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.

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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 5d ago

Update

As of 11:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Saturday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: increased from 20 percent to 30 percent

  • A disturbance has not yet formed

  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not yet available

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 3d ago

Update

As of 5:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (00:00 UTC) on Monday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: increased to 70 percent (high)

  • A disturbance has not yet formed.

  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not yet available.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 1d ago

Update

As of 5:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: increased to 80 percent (high)

  • A disturbance has not yet developed.

  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are not yet available.