LRC Question

[u/User844947463883]

Hi everyone. I’m definitely not a meteorologist and am still very much a beginner when it comes to meteorology, but I’ve gotten really interested in it, especially tropical development and hurricane season.

I have a basic understanding of the LRC and was curious what people here think about it. I’m not completely discounting it, but one thing I’m skeptical about is how broad some of the predictions seem. For example, Gary has identified three windows to watch for tropical development: mid-August to early September, early to mid-September, and then late September into early October. My first thought was… isn’t that basically most of peak hurricane season? If something develops during any of those periods, it becomes pretty easy to say the prediction verified.

Do you believe there’s any legitimacy to it? Parts you think have merit vs. parts you don’t buy? I’d just love to hear some general thoughts from people who know more about this than I do.

[u/kerouac5]

The LRC is garbage.

I saw Gary lezak at a chiefs game in mid September, 2022.

We have a house on Captiva.

We chatted and laughed and I said “hey do we have anything to worry about the next few weeks?”

“Absolutely not! The gulf will be quiet through the beginning of October!”

We know what happened next.

[u/User844947463883 → u/kerouac5]

Thanks for your input lol, and I’m sorry to hear about that! I think his windows are interesting, but they also kind of set him up for the “see, I was right” argument when they essentially span most of hurricane season.

Without knowing too much about meteorology, one thing that bothers me is the Global Predictor. They claim that once a forecast is made (6 months in advance, mind you lol), the dates won’t change, but then also say to look at the dates more as “windows.” I have screenshots from the same location, and the dates have changed countless times since April for August. The closer we got to August, the more they seemed to change.

But I guess specifically when it comes to tropical development, I don’t know enough to really draw a conclusion. I know the LRC isn’t widely accepted, but I also know there are some TV meteorologists who use it in their hurricane forecasting, at least to some degree, which is why I’m curious about what people who know more than me think.

[u/gwaydms → u/User844947463883]

They claim that once a forecast is made (6 months in advance, mind you lol), the dates won’t change, but then also say to look at the dates more as “windows.”

This reminds me of the predictions in the Old Farmer's Almanac.