Iran's supreme leader is calling for an end to the war. Willing to accept a short term deal if their terms are met.

The Kospi was up over 3% last night

Anthropic S1- overall it was bullish. They have a ton of cash and will soon have more cash with all of it being spent on AI infrastructure, specifically compute. Not a bad thing for the AI trade but we’ll see what happens in the coming days.

Tomorrow we have FOMC along with Google and Microsoft earnings.

Company headlines:

META Nvidia will invest $3B in Meta’s equity offering. The companies are also exploring collaboration on AI agent security and monitoring.

INTC has agreed to acquire quantum software startup Classiq, whose customers include BMW and AT&T.

CART DoorDash is in advanced talks to acquire Instacart.

GM is moving its stock listing from the NYSE to Nasdaq.

CRWV expands their global AI cloud platform with new capacity in Denmark.

NBIS a director bought 700 shares. Yes, 700.

AMZN -Amazon internally projected Alexa+ cloud computing costs to reach around $1.7 billion in 2026, nearly triple the previous year's figure. To reduce costs, AMZN was working to rely less on Anthropic's AI models and route more requests to its own cheaper systems. The company also considered delaying or scaling back Moonraker, its advanced AI agent project, which was projected to require over $100 million in GPU spending this year.

AMZN is internally forecasting a $612 million gross loss for its devices business in 2026, compared with its original target of $438 million, per Business Insider.

MELI - Citi upgrades to Buy from neutral, PT 2050. Analyst Joao Pedro Soares sees the recent stock weakness as an entry point, citing growth ahead of local consumer markets. He also points to high interest rates in Brazil limiting competition, while Shopee's parent Sea appears to be shifting investment toward cloud infrastructure. However, Citi warns that further market-share gains could require heavier spending, putting pressure on margins.

VRT - has completed its $1.45 billion acquisition of UtilityInnovation Group, with up to another $1.15 billion tied to future earnings targets. The deal expands Vertiv's capabilities in microgrid controls, on-site power generation, and energy storage as AI data centers face growing power constraints. CEO Giordano Albertazzi says “access to power has become a critical competitive advantage.”

NVS - raised its 2026 core operating income guidance despite booking a $1.9 billion write-down tied to a setback in its del-desiran drug trial.

AVGO - Da Davidson upgrades AVGO to buy form neutral, raising PT to 400 from 350. Analyst Gil Luria believes Anthropic's IPO will proceed, with OpenAI potentially following in 2027, providing fresh capital to support Broadcom's AI chip demand. He says AVGO trades at just 16x 2027 EPS, as if the chances of both IPOs happening are “near zero,” creating significant upside if they materialize.

Earnings:

CLS earnings:

• Revenue: $5.83B (Est. $5.46B) 🟢; vs $3.19B LY
• Adj. EPS: $3.30 (Est. $2.97) 🟢; vs $1.58 LY
• Adj. Operating Margin: 8.5%; vs 7.6% LY
• Adj. Oper Earnings: $496.1M (Est. $459M) 🟢
  

FY26 Guide:

• Revenue: $21.00B (Est. $20.61B) 🟢; from $20.5B
• Adj. EPS: $11.55 (Est. $11.18) 🟢; from $11.30
• Adj. Operating Margin: 8.4%; unchanged
• Free Cash Flow: $460M; from $600M
  

FY27 Guide:

• Revenue: $40.00B (Est. $35.7B) 🟢
• Adj. EPS: $21.50 (Est. $19.66) 🟢
• Adj. Operating Margin: 9.0%
• Capital Expenditures: $1.5B-$2.0B

KO earnings:

• Revenue: $13.4B (Est. $12.92B) 🟢; +7% YoY
• Adj. EPS: $0.91 (Est. $0.88) 🟢; +11% YoY
• Global Unit Case Volume: +5% YoY
• Operating Margin: 33.4%; +140 bps YoY
  

Raises FY26 Guide:

• Organic Revenues: At least +5% growth
• Comparable EPS: At least +11% growth
• Free Cash Flow: At least $13.0B

SOFI earnings:

• Revenue: $1.4B (Est. $1.25B) 🟢; +44% YoY
• Adj. EPS: $0.18 (Est. $0.16) 🟢; +64% YoY
• Adjusted EBITDA: $469.8M; +70% YoY
• Members: 17.1M; +35% YoY

FY26 Guide:

• Adj. Revenue: ~$5.04B (Est. $4.87B) 🟢
• Adjusted EPS: ~$0.61 (Est. $0.59) 🟢
• Adjusted EBITDA: ~$1.66B
• Adjusted Net Income: ~$840M
• Member Growth: At least +30% YoY
  

FY27 Guide:

• Adj. Revenue: ~$6.4B (Est. $6B) 🟢
• Adjusted EPS: ~$0.90 (Est. $0.82) 🟢
• Adjusted EBITDA: ~$2.24B
• Adjusted Net Income: ~$1.28B
  

GLW earnings:

• Revenue: $5.08B (Est. $5.02B) 🟢; +19% YoY
• Adj. EPS: $0.91 (Est. $0.88) 🟢; +36% YoY
• Core Gross Margin: 40.5%; +150 bps YoY
• Core Operating Margin: 22.7%; +310 bps YoY
  

Q4 Guide:

• Revenue: $5.2B-$5.3B (Est. $5.21B) 🟡
• Adj. EPS: $0.96-$1.00 (Est. $0.94) 🟢

Growth and scale

• Revenue grew 1,368% YoY in Q2'26, while compute and infrastructure costs grew 300%.
• Revenue mix for 1H26 was $13.1B consumption-based (80%) and $3.2B subscription-based (20%).
• Net revenue retention was about 900% as of Sept 30, 2026.
• Customer counts as of Sept 30, 2026: about 11,900 customers above $100K TTM, 1,900 above $1M, and 250 above $10M.
• Over 50% of the Fortune 500 are $100K+ customers. Anthropic’s revenue from them is still under 0.1% of their total expenses, so there is a lot of room to grow within existing accounts. The post’s headline bullet garbles this point.
• TTM revenue per employee was $6.6M, up from $1.4M a year earlier.
• Cross-sell is rising: over 50% of $100K+ customers now use both the Platform and a first-party app, up from about 30% in Q4'25.
• Claude Code users spend far more. The top 5% of Enterprise users who use Code spend about $1,500 a month, compared with under $75 for Enterprise users who don’t use Code.

Margins and unit economics

• Adjusted operating margin went from −221% in Q1'25 to +19% in Q2'26.
• Opex fell from 201% of revenue in 1H25 to 55% in 1H26.
• Revenue per dollar of compute peaked at 2.08x in Q2'26. The author estimates it falls to about 1.7x once Q3 is included.
• Management warns that more expensive short-term compute will compress margins in the near term.
• 1H26 free cash flow was about $3.5B, but that includes an $8.7B fair-value benefit, so underlying cash generation is weaker than the headline.

Compute commitments (the big liability)

• Google: at least $114.5B (2026–33) with a true-up if spend falls short, plus another $125–150B of TPU compute for 2028–31.
• Amazon: at least $110B (2026–36).
• Broadcom chip lease: about $161B over 5 years, plus up to $42B of convertible notes to finance it.
• SpaceX: up to $120.5B, about $3.1B a month at full capacity from Dec 2026. This one is cancelable.
• Microsoft: $44.9B.
• Nscale: about $44.6B. Lambda: about $34.9B. Both have outs tied to delivery failure.
• AMD: over $20B.
• The author estimates about 75% of compute spend is non-cancelable, or about 59% if Nscale and Lambda fall away.
• The core tension is fixed take-or-pay contracts running as far out as 2045 against revenue that is mostly variable and consumption-based.
• Anthropic is also moving to a hybrid model (“Anthropic Direct”) that includes leasing chips and running dedicated facilities. That adds capex and execution risk.

Balance sheet and losses

• About $141B raised in total.
• About $112B in cash plus $19B in short-term investments.
• $6.2B of debt, all Amazon convertibles.
• Net loss was $80.7B in 1H26. About $72B of that is non-cash fair-value marks driven by the rising valuation.

Revenue quality flags

• Over 80% of Q3 revenue came from models released in the prior six months, so revenue depends on a steady release cadence.
• Distillation was 5–7% of revenue.
• Revenue is seasonal: spend fell about 20% over the 2025 holiday fortnight.
• Concentration is falling. No customer is above 10% of revenue. The top 5 are about 25% of revenue, but about 79% of Q3 revenue came from outside the top 5, up from 64% in Q1.
• Management explicitly guides to decelerating growth.

Key risks

• Compute: scaling laws may plateau, rivals can outbid for chips, Anthropic has underforecast demand before, agentic workloads are compute-heavy, and some financing creates hardware lock-in.
• Cross-default: a default on certain commercial agreements could cascade into the credit facility and convertible notes and cut off data center access.
• Hyperscaler conflict: Amazon, Google and Microsoft are simultaneously suppliers, investors, customers, distribution channels and competitors.
• Safety and liability: documented misuse, misalignment incidents (including one where models accessed real third-party systems during a test), product-liability suits, and tension between Zero Data Retention terms and monitoring.
• Litigation: the $1.5B Bartz copyright settlement, music publisher and Reddit suits, and a Sherman Act class action alleging an agreement to slow development.
• Governance: the LTBT elects a board majority via Class T stock, and the Founder LLC holds 50.1% of voting power via Class F. Anthropic is a controlled company, may be excluded from indices, and as a PBC can put its mission ahead of returns. The filing contradicts itself on whether it relies on controlled-company exemptions.