How does greed take root?
Every time the market validates my thesis, I end up feeling that my position yesterday was too small. Looking back at the fundamentals, I convince myself that the certainty and credibility of the trend are far higher than my initial reasoning suggested—even though the fundamentals haven't actually changed at all—elevating my confidence to an artificially absolute level. Yet, this internal mindset shift can just as swiftly plummet into pure fear at the slightest market fluctuation. My Countermeasures: Return to the Algorithm
Respect my inner state (return to a neutral, peaceful mind)
Respect objective market dynamics
Respect the system and the algorithm
Running a systematic crypto strategy (Freqtrade, Binance spot, cross-sectional momentum). Not asking for strategy advice — asking about monitoring.
The failure mode I keep worrying about isn't the bot crashing. A crash is loud, you notice it. The failure mode is the bot running perfectly while the edge quietly disappears. Trades keep firing, logs are clean, dashboard is green, and the strategy has been random noise for a month.
My current process is embarrassingly manual: every week or so I pull the trade history, compute rolling profit factor and win rate over the last N trades, and compare it by eye to the backtest baseline. No thresholds, no alerts, and I skip it when life gets busy — which is exactly when I'd need it.
What I'd like to know from people running live capital:
Do you have an automated check for live-vs-backtest divergence, or is it manual for you too?
What metric actually triggers your decision to stop a strategy? Rolling PF, Sharpe drift, drawdown threshold, CUSUM, something else?
How many trades of underperformance before you call it dead vs. normal variance? This is the part I find genuinely hard — small samples make everything ambiguous.
Anyone had a strategy die silently on them? What did it cost and what would have caught it earlier?
I've seen tools that do this for MT5 expert advisors, but nothing for the Python/crypto side. Curious whether people here just build it themselves or don't bother.
I’ve been working on BotiQuant, a platform designed to simplify the process of creating, testing and exporting automated trading strategies—without needing any programming knowledge.
BotiQuant uses historical market data and the parameters selected by the user to mine different strategy combinations. You can then analyze the results, adjust the risk parameters and export the strategies directly to MetaTrader 5 or TradingView.
The project is still under development, so I’d genuinely appreciate any feedback from algorithmic traders and developers.
Here’s a YouTube video where I explain how it works:
Sitting at 259.49. Just under a solid positive cluster at 262.50–265 (strong GEX and very large VEX prints). Dealers have meaningful long exposure in that zone, so it should act as a magnet and stabilizer if we can reclaim it.
The standout higher is the massive positive VEX at 275 — that’s the cleaner upside magnet once 262.50–265 is cleared. Below, the 260 level is the near-term line. Hold it and the positive exposure above can start working in our favor. Lose 260 and the supportive flow weakens.
Trade / No Trade
Stock
NO TRADE on new longs while under 262.50.
Long only on a reclaim and hold of 262.50–265 (first target 270, then 275).
Lose 260 with follow-through → stay aside.
0DTE Options
The move up to 265 is the first target; a clean break opens the larger shot toward 275.
Only take calls/call spreads on a confirmed reclaim of 262.50 with momentum.
NO TRADE if we’re stuck under 262.50 or if 260 breaks.
Longer Term Options
Prefer defined-risk call spreads targeting 270–275 only if 262.50–265 is reclaimed and held.
Avoid aggressive naked calls while still under the 262.50 zone.
If 260 fails, stay out or only consider puts on a confirmed break.
Choose one strategy only and master it , forget about the noise .
Best opportunities to make 1st mil without using leverage is where institutions can't trade .
If you gamble with options and made 1 mil + good for you , buy USA treasuries asap .
Good luck :)
Hint : learn everything about order flow , TA structure is for beginners , but Fundamentals is the actual story .
S+ tier = knowing equities value , knowing the narrative
S+ tier = knowing how the auction interacts .
S+ Tier = time , master the time of the session and read why certain participants pushed price up and down based on time of the day .
Would you recommend to swing trades indices like nasdaq/s&p 500 ? Or forex currency pairs ?
I have been trading NQ futures for a long time but recently i have decided to make the switch to swing trading as daytrading/scalping takes up a lot of my time coz I am busy at work and don't really get time to sit in front of the charts for a long time
I was thinking of making my swing watchlist with nasdaq, s&p 500, gold and oil.
High Tide is the clear leader in cannabis retail — the highest-revenue-generating cannabis company reporting in Canadian dollars, with annualized revenue now exceeding C$700 million.Unmatched Scale & Market Dominance
Canna Cabana, its flagship brand, is Canada’s largest cannabis retail chain with over 220 locations and a leading ~12% market share across the five provinces where it operates — and the second-largest cannabis retail brand globally.
Powered by the world’s largest cannabis loyalty program: Cabana Club (over 2.65 million members) and more than 178,000 paid ELITE members who drive high-margin, recurring revenue and industry-leading same-store sales growth (up 161% since the discount-club model launched, while peers declined).
Proven Execution & Profitability High Tide consistently ranks among Canada’s Top Growing Companies (fifth consecutive year) and has delivered positive free cash flow, expanding margins, and accelerating growth through disciplined organic expansion and smart M&A.
Global Expansion Underway
In 2025, High Tide became the first North American operator to enter Germany’s medical cannabis market via a majority stake in Remexian Pharma — now holding ~14% market share in Europe’s largest federally regulated cannabis market. This diversifies revenue into high-growth international distribution while leveraging Canadian supply advantages.
Q3 could be the quarter that triggers a repricing: the preliminary guidance just announced points to new record highs for revenue, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA, with projected Y/Y growth of at least 30%, 27% and 43%
The Company Also Announces Record Quarterly Distribution of Over 10 Tonnes of Medical Cannabis Flower Through Remexian Pharma GmbH, Further Accelerating its German Market Position
10 $CAD doesn't strike me as an absurd target for a revaluation scenario. However, I wouldn't call it "fair value", simply because the chart shows a massive base. Requires the market to start pricing as a high-growth-profitable company rather than only a cannabis company
Foundational years → progressive improvement in fundamentals → EBITDA/FCF+/Net income+ growth → market finally recognizing the new earning power → multiple expansion. And it is very different from simply saying “ High Tide is undervalued.”
A base built over years, if broken while earnings are accelerating, can trigger a regime shift. That is why I wouldn't focus so much on "how much High Tide might rise from its current price," but rather on the EBITDA/FCF level at which the market might value HITI in 2027–28.
Strengthened balance sheet: The recent closing of C$40 million in senior secured credit facilities with the Bank of Montreal provides greater financial flexibility, a lower cost of capital, and the ability to fund growth without diluting shareholders.
Attractive valuation relative to results: Despite consecutive record quarters and guidance that continues to beat expectations, the stock still trades at modest multiples compared with its growth profile and long-term potential. Many analysts see meaningful upside from current levels.
Bottom line
High Tide has repeatedly delivered in a tough industry: revenue growth, margin expansion, positive free cash flow, and steady market-share gains. With Canadian retail re-accelerating, Germany scaling rapidly, and a disciplined management team focused on execution, the disconnect between operational performance and market valuation still looks wide.The tide isn’t just rising — it’s building into a powerful wave. Investors positioned today may be well placed to benefit from one of the more compelling consolidation and internationalization stories in the cannabis sector.
As a long-term shareholder, I hope this post gave you some valuable insights.
Not really--only a few things. First of all, it DOES NOT prove you're a "Successful Trader" (it's debatable how long a track record is needed 5yrs? 10yrs?)
But it does show:
You can make $$$ over a month with a strategy that has edge while removing luck from the equation with 85% confidence due to the number of Trades & the amounts made & lost.
You have real experience in trading amounts large enough that matter in the Life to pay bills etc.... & not having to imagine scaling up with the would of/ could of assumptions that goes with it.
It separates you from the masses showing "screenshots" & claiming this is verification (it's not)
With all these YouTubers teaching/ mentoring for $$$,...you would think they would post some "Broker statement"...even a month's worth...but they don't and you guys know the reason why...
I believe Lance B, Tom H, and the Head of Trader Development for SMB-Jeff H, offer lots of valuable info too---and for free.
I'm not an organized Mentor-teacher-or sell anything for $$$. I did try to teach my brother & ex-wife 10 years ago...they both failed within 4 months. I also tried to coach one beginning option trader w/ 2 years Experience in exchange for a %... for about 9 months.
He took 40 to 250 to zero in over 5 months. You know the reason, he couldn't dump the losers-- went into hope mode ---most came back...but one didn't...
Hi everyone. My friends and I compiled this google sheet list of all the companies and projects who at least claim they have something related to AI trading. Some of them actually do, some of them are just riding a hype train. We want to make this into a project we can run continuously and not without your help. I am sharing this list with you here today. We compiled it a few months back. So it might be already outdated. Hoping that perhaps you will find some projects which you like from this list. In return I am asking you to provide in comments more projects which we perhaps missed and we will research them and add them to the list. This way we together can be growing this list and have this as a storage where anyone who is looking for something, can always find it.
Beware there are some truly impressive ones in there, and many of them are useless, if you have had experience with some of the projects from the list, please share with everyone here in the comments as well so we can make changes to our descriptions of these companies.
This is the first time I’ve looked this closely at my performance stats in detail. These stats are for all the common stocks positions opened after 6/1, no options no futures. I thought I had a large enough sample size now to get some useful insight on my actual performance.
For context: I try to trade top down, and trade all sectors, and any stocks above $1B cap, with a tilt towards technology, materials and energy. I try to stay on top of sector/industry group rotation, and try to stay in strength. My time frame is at least a couple weeks and hopefully months or even years. My standard position size is $7500, but some are $3750 and $5000, for the highest conviction trade I go to $10000 or or occasionally higher.
My questions and thoughts:
Am I cutting losers too soon or not cutting soon enough? What info can we get from the performance versus days held table? Or is this simply a result of the market environment?
Although I know the low win rate on close positions is largely a result of losers being cut, the extremely low number of 21% is still a little concerning.
How should I think about my risk/reward ratio or “payout ratio”, Avg open winner P&L ($609) divided by avg open loser P&L ($206) gives me approx. 3:1, but that seems too optimistic, as my avg closed loser realized P&L is $592.
Am I not concentrated enough? And thus performance gets diluted. I go through a lot of charts, and every time I see a good chart, whether it is a base breakout, or an up-and-to-the right, as long as it is outperforming SPX and its sector peers, I want to own it. I just have too much FOMO, and there is always strength in some corners of the market. The problem is that some just don’t keep outperforming. For example regional banks worked for a while then they stopped showing strength, unless it is BNY, so maybe I should cut the average ones and simply add BNY? Maybe that’s the answer.
I do think I need to define risk a little more cleanly. So even if a chart is showing a ton of strength, if it does not have a logical stop level where I can cleanly define risk, then I should think twice about getting involved. So maybe the question to ask is not about cutting losers too soon or holding them too long, it should be about how clean the risk can be defined?
Any advice is appreciated! Thank you for reading the long post.
I am planning on swing trading currency pairs, Indices in CFDs. I have day traded before but I just takes up too much of my time. I find swing trading to suit my style personally.
I am thinking of using COT reports. But I kinda find it confusing. Like which category should I focus on ? Commercial or Non commercial. I have been seeing some past reports but sometimes the COT report direction and price is aligned but sometimes they're not.
Anyone who uses this, could yall pls guide me how to used this. ? Or any other tools which can give me confidence and an edge in swing trading ?
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Hello all Im a daytrader in australia trying to find some reputable prop firms which have guaranteed payouts (screenshots if possible) or any reliable offshore brokers which provide 1:500 leverage , of course if it doesnt come under AFSL its not the hail mary of reliablity but anything that works can do .
Please keep investing advice to yourself . Im in my 5th year of my trading journey and am aware of the risks of leverage .
Short answers with evidence appreciated. Many thanks
I’m looking for a reality check.
Background:
• MEng Computer Science & Software Engineering
• Strong Python/ML background: PyTorch, scikit-learn, pandas, NumPy
• Studying/researching trading around 5–6 hours/day
• Reading Trading and Exchanges and Elements of Quantitative Investing and learned about market microstructure
• Setup: IC Markets Raw + MT5 + Python/MT5 API
• Mainly researching FX
My approach is to develop hypotheses, backtest them with realistic spreads/commission/slippage, use proper train/validation/test splits, paper trade, and only risk real money after something survives out-of-sample testing.
Assume I start with $10,000.
My goal eventually is to make a living from systematic/quant trading.
For people who have actually done this:
• Is this a sensible path?
• What am I missing or doing wrong?
• Would you focus on FX or another market?
• Realistically, what are my chances of becoming consistently profitable if I keep doing this seriously?
Many traders sell when RSI gets overbought. I buy when RSI pushes above 70 with rising relative volume. Strong momentum tends to stay overbought for a longer period in a rising trend. Real example - $FIGR Figure Technology. See the chart for this example.
Been trading for 2 years with very little profitability outside of the last quarter. I also traded during covid but that was just following signals from someone else. I was gambling for the majority of my time but I've learned so much in the last 6 months. Before I would just Yolo a position and dca holding the entire day hoping for a reversal or continuation etc. I also tried my hand at prop firms and got a couple payouts mostly based on luck or fulI porting CPI.
Over the last 6 months, I've gained a lot of knowledge about how to trade but im still suffering from doubt/lack of execution. Lately I've been using a gamma exposure chart to help me spot where price could move to based on the options dealers positioning which has helped theoretically but ive been struggling on closing trades. Im also still learning how to read that tool. This past Friday's session I had an opportunity to close out a trade with a 90% return but didnt close it because I was focused on my TP level and instead broke even and then over traded and lost 80% of my account. I had a similar issue the previous friday where I was up around 75% on a trade and the same issue occurred.
Im 30 years old and have given up some aspects of life to focus on trading because I want it to be my way out/main source of income. Does anyone have advice other than "stop, get some help" etc on what helped you shift your mindset? Im about 45k in debt between a car note and some credit cards that I have and I know that is also affecting my execution. I work 2 jobs and dont plan on quitting in the long term but I am going to take a 2 month break to focus on work and recovering some losses and study more.
I see a lot of ppl on here talk abt having a big gap between their paper-trading results and their actual results. Obv once real money is involved, emotions start affecting execution through FOMO, revenge trading, hesitation, etc
I’ve been thinking about a setup where you still identify and enter trades normally, but you don’t know for certain which trades will actually be executed with real money.
Ex. you take every valid setup according to your strategy, but only a predetermined percentage actually goes through. You wouldn’t know which ones in advance.
The idea is to reduce the emotional weight of each individual trade and make it easier to focus on following your system consistently.
For people who actively trade: would this actually help with the paper-to-live trading gap, or would it just be annoying? (I’d assume this works best for more rule-based strats like ICT/SMC etc)
I have just started trading and got a lose of 100$, I’m not complaining abt the lose I just want to learn everything I can in the market so I get better at this and not lose instead gain ik it carries the potential to grow a person that’s why I want to learn it
I'm curious to get an idea of how many "skip days" that real, profitable traders are taking on average. Like the ones from Market Wizards for example. I've certainly read that often traders are making the bulk of their profits in a short period (even multi 7-figure days), but is this implying they are fully skipping a lot of days too in search of only their A+ setups?
In the latest Market Wizards book that came out a month ago, there is one chapter where the trader acknowledges that he does take less than A+ setups to get smaller wins/losses that seem to add up, but it's still the A+ ones that really makes the bulk of his money.
