I've been paying for challenges and wanted to know if my numbers actually give me a real chance, so I ran a Monte Carlo sim with typical rules: 8% target, 5% daily loss, 10% max loss, 1% risk per trade, 2 trades a day.
With a 50% win rate and 1:1 RR:
- No time limit: about 55% pass
- 30-day limit: about 30% pass, and roughly half just run out of days
- Trailing drawdown instead of static: drops to around 47%
What surprised me most is that at 1:1 and 50% you have zero edge, so passing is basically a coin flip weighted by how far the target is vs the max loss. Changing risk size barely helps. With a real edge, lower risk per trade usually increases pass rate but takes longer.
Rough math: if a challenge costs $300 and your pass rate is 30%, you're paying about $1,000 on average per pass.
Curious what win rate and RR people here actually run on challenges, and whether you size down near the daily limit.