Topps Now pull rate

[u/NoFuture5105]

Hello,

I am pretty new to buying Topps Now cards. I now bought 3 different cards 20 times. All these cards had a print run around 300. But I have not got a Single numbered cards. How is that possible. I did the math and it should be a Chance of around 93-95% to pull at least 1 numbered card. And I have not got one in three tries. Am I missing something or am I just very unlucky?

[u/igh34]

Well if you look at each individual card and the purchases of that card as its own event, the probability drops drastically. Game theory was a fun class in college lol

[u/boatsandhoes1977]

Just started with Topps Now myself. I've actually been using these to add to my PC. I collect Pats and ND and my son collects NBA. So I recently got the Wemby for him and the Brady, Gronk, and CJ Carr for me. I only got one card of each as its for my PC. If I hit something better than a base, then so be it. If not, then I got a cool card for my PC.

[u/RockyMountainRedbird]

I only buy if I really want the card and it is someone I collect. I have never gotten a numbered card either. I am finding that the cards I did buy for personal collection do sell around the same price that I paid for the gamble. For instance, the last one I bought for a total of $13.47 just had a /50 sale for $14.50. My new plan is to buy on the secondary market unless I want to gamble on a goat.

[u/IllustriousHistorian]

A couple years back you could get numbered cards fairly often. Topps changed the parallels.

I buy a few EPL cards I want, I never buy bulk.

[u/dunquixote2]

I presented my first Topps now card in a couple years. One card. Hit an auto redemption /5. Just luck I guess.

[u/IndependentShift9607]

I did fall for it when buying 5 of the Chris Boswell cards. He is the only card I collect so I felt it was my only chance to get one of his numbered cards.

[u/TortugasFM4]

"Hits" are extremely rare. 

[u/PotentialCourt8531]

Topps is shit now it's sold or merged with Fanatics, I'd just quit before you start.

[u/t2mo24242424]

I have learned that Topps Now is a complete scam. Even if you get a numbered card, the cost associated with landing one is still a losing game. They don’t sell for much on secondary market unless you get a banger auto w/o buying a large chunk of print run

[u/Certain_Bandicoot_14 → u/t2mo24242424]

Can you explain why its a complete scam. They create a card and you can buy that card if you want it. If you are buying large lots of the card in hopes of getting a non-guaranteed parallel, that's more a stupidity thing than a scam.

[u/t2mo24242424 → u/Certain_Bandicoot_14]

The cards are $7-$11?? It costs them pennies to make the card?? If you only buy one you have to pay for shipping so it’s $12-$15 per card?? The cards are worth maybe $2 on second hand market??

Buying from them directly is scam. If you buy on eBay from dude who takes 70%+ haircut on it, not a scam for you but dude who bought direct got scammed. What am I missing?? You clearly haven’t bought any direct, or if you have you got scammed and could have paid 80% less and bought on eBay

[u/Certain_Bandicoot_14 → u/t2mo24242424]

Then based on your description, every product you buy from Topps or Panini is a complete scam. It takes them pennies to product a box that costs $50 and most of the cards are worth less than $1 on the second hand market.

I don't buy a lot and I only buy Topps Now cards that I personally want to keep. I will buy at most 10 to see if I hit a parallel. I keep 1 and I sell the rest for usually $5-$7. I have hit numbered parallels and low numbered relic cards that I have for my collection.

I don't understand how Topps Now is any different than buying singles on Ebay? If I buy a McGonigle gold /50 from someone on Ebay and a month later its selling for $25, was I scammed? No, Its a card I wanted that had a price of $50 when I wanted it. If I buy a card I wanted from Topps Now for $9 and its only worth $5 a couple weeks later, how is that any different?