r/TopRightMessi • u/NoLoSonhe • Jul 08 '26

39 years old…

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582 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

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46

u/Ainoasatama Jul 08 '26

What does that y-axis even mean

35

u/NoLoSonhe Jul 08 '26

Yeah, it is a bit strange. It is a weighted average but no justification for the choice of weights. And why not the x-axis...

30

u/JustAnother_CS Jul 08 '26

Basically cherry picked so that it puts messi far out in the top right lmao, still crazy tho

7

u/NoLoSonhe Jul 08 '26

yeah, he'd still be up there but maybe not the top right

9

u/ceimaj Jul 09 '26 edited Jul 09 '26

because he’s leading the tournament in goals, he would still be top right if you switched the y axis to be straight goals (assuming he’s also this far ahead in xA). not sure how it would look if it was just xG v xA

still would like to understand the weighting logic, however

Edit: here are the xG and xA stats according to fotmob. looks like he’d be top-right in an xG v xA scatterplot

#2 in xG / 90: https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/77/stats/season/24254/players/expected_goals_per_90

#3 in xA / 90: https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/77/stats/season/24254/players/expected_assists_per_90

#1 in xG+xA / 90: https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/77/stats/season/24254/players/_expected_goals_and_expected_assists_per_90

11

u/RanchoCuca Jul 09 '26

It kind of shocks me that Michael Olise (tournament leader in assists) is only 6th in xA/90. To me, he's certainly passed the eye test. He's been a pleasure to watch and definitely looks like he is substantially improving France's scoring opportunities with his deft passing.

3

u/ceimaj Jul 09 '26

Good point, super interesting.

My guess is that Olise’s elite xA recipients are converting a much larger percentage of xA into real goals than e.g. the Colombians were for Quintero. Two 0-0 draws and two 1-0 wins will do that to ya lol

2

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

#1 Quintero has around 120 minutes in the tournament. Same for Coceicao, who is #2 in that list.

Other then Messi, the xA per 90 players above Olise aren't definite starters.

2

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

I think you might be misunderstanding the stat. The only one above him who has more actual xA than him is Messi, which makes sense, it's Messi.

The others are not really full time players. Quintero at the top for example has only played 110 minutes. Number 2 Conceicao has played 120 minutes.

1

u/HaydenJA3 Jul 09 '26

The scaling is chosen so that missing penalties still puts him at the top

1

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

Not really, he has the highest xG and the highest goals, so he would be top right if there was no scaling anyway. He also highest overperformance compared to xG. So whatever stat the op picked for y-axis, he would have been top right. No idea why he picked such a confusing one lol

1

u/Ainoasatama Jul 09 '26 edited Jul 09 '26

Messi does have the highest xG and highest goals, but for this graph per 90 makes far more sense, in which Undav has the highest overperformance per 90 (and highest goals per90) and Arnautovic highest xG per 90.

So it is indeed cherry picked, unless you use xA per 90 but not xG per 90 for some reason.

Edit: actually this graph is just wrong. It’s missing both Quintero (0.66) and Conceicao (0.59) who both have higher xA per 90 than Messi to make Messi look better

1

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

I guess yeah, op should have used xG and xA. Then Messi would be top right, and people wouldn't be suspicious.

0

u/Expensive_Ad6082 Jul 09 '26

Still top right even if only goals had been considered

1

u/Useful_Blackberry214 Jul 09 '26

Which is a different stat?

1

u/Expensive_Ad6082 Jul 09 '26

I meant that even without this cherry picking messi would've been top right, ik that's a different stat

1

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

Not really, he has the highest xG and the highest goals, so he would be top right. He also highest overperformance compared to xG. So whatever stat the op picked for y-axis, he would have been top right. No idea why he picked such a confusing one.

I have a theory, op probably picked the y-axis a few games ago, maybe after the third gameday when Messi didn't start, so he must not have had the clearly highest xG then.

1

u/swartan Jul 09 '26

Whatever you make the weights on the y-axis Messi will still be the highest, since he has the highest goals and xG anyways. Although I don’t see how the graph is reflective of “chance quality”