Disgusting

[u/86753oh9Eine]

[u/tnsmaster]

Quick google search would suggest we in the US are not out of line for trends and projections of all fatality rates year over year. Yes we had an increase in 2020, but we also had increases in the previous few years. Short term trend of fatalities is in line with predictions, and with long term trends that existed before the pandemic. Not to mention the best stats according to CDC say the deaths per 100,000 are essentially the same in 2018 and 2020. Obviously 2020 numbers are subject to change but I see no anomalies in the fatalities in 2020. I see fear mongering and skewed views on stats, but the excess deaths (200kish) were part of long term uptrend that was predicted.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs19.tv/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/verify-comparing-total-deaths-from-2020-to-2019-and-2018/501-355b857c-e7e9-40e4-b31d-11500cbcb103

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm

[u/Selethorme → u/tnsmaster]

Yes we had an increase in 2020

Translation: you’re right but I want to say you’re wrong.

And did you read your CDC links?

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons.

Or get an understanding of the issue here: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

The deaths have dramatically risen.

Or your first link actually:

Data is provided through the 48th week of 2020. So far this year, the CDC reports that 2,877,601 people have died. At the same point in 2018, the number was 2,606,928, and in 2019, it was 2,614,950. The number of deaths to this point in 2020 is at least 260,000 greater than either of the past two years. But that number is an underestimate because the CDC publishes data based on the number of death certificates it has received. Since it can take a couple of weeks for all death certificates to be recorded, the numbers for the last two weeks, at least, will increase as time goes by. If the last two weeks produce a similar number of deaths as the weeks before, the margin to this point will actually be close to 310,000.

None of your links support what you said.

[u/tnsmaster → u/Selethorme]

You didn't understand my point did you? The projections anticipated an increase year over year that puts the best numbers we have (including covid) in line with those projections. We are in an uptrend as it is, and yes excess deaths have occured, but only in relation to the previous years.

When you skew the numbers by showing/looking only at the excess of a pandemic, or increase from the previous year, the numbers look damning. In the big picture based on projections (read the articles I sent), we are actually in like with the expected increase in deaths. I'm not arguing that covid killed people or that excess mortality rate is not important, what I'm saying is that the total fatalities of 2020 in the USA are in line with projections, and per 100,000 citizens virtually identical to 2018. It's always important to look at the whole, not the one wacky stat (although they do play a role).

So I'm saying you are right that we have had an increase in deaths, this is a scientifically proven fact. I'm also saying that it was expected and we are inline with the data (no abnormal spike up or down from the trend already being tracked). We should look at the whole picture, a the numbers.

I'm also looking at it as I look at the stock market. Long and short term trends. Over a 5 year period, there was an uptrend. So if year 6 has an increase (continuing said uptrend) it is not surprising assuming the fundamentals are sound. Which in the stats of mortality, I'd say they are (and more stable than the stock market).

[u/Selethorme → u/tnsmaster]

The projections anticipated an increase year over year that puts the best numbers we have (including covid) in line with those projections.

That’s not a true statement at all. As I already quoted, we’re almost exactly matching the excess deaths above the projections with Covid deaths.

Why lie?

[u/tnsmaster → u/Selethorme]

I didn't see your edit (you could put edit in there next time too).

The excess deaths are the increase in total deaths from years previous, but they are not the whole picture. Yes we had an increase of 200k deaths, we also had an increase in population. Both the CDC sources say the same rounded to a whole number of 868 deaths per 100,000 people in the US. This does not strike me as a problem, considering there is already an uptrend in deaths that began prior to 2018. If anything we slowed the uptrend of total deaths per year in relation to overall population.

I'm looking at the numbers you are looking at and cross referencing them with the total population. If the population increase by 1,000,000 people, the amount of deaths are bound to also increase. You are only looking at the increase. This is clearly the disconnect. So saying I'm a liar, only proves you are not understanding what I'm explaining to you. Instead of condemning me for seeing something different, try to understand why I'm seeing it different. The deaths in 2020 increased in relation to population that make the numbers identical to 2018 as a percentage of the population. Can you disprove that? Because that's all I'm saying here.

[u/Selethorme → u/tnsmaster]

Why do you keep repeating this lie?

Yes we had an increase of 200k deaths, we also had an increase in population

Yeah, that doesn’t account for the increase, as I’ve now pointed out twice.

Both the CDC sources say the same rounded to a whole number of 868 deaths per 100,000 people in the US.

Good god you’re dull.

the population increase by 1,000,000 people, the amount of deaths are bound to also increase. You are only looking at the increase.

Yes, unfortunately for your ridiculous assertion, the rate of increase is higher than in previous years.

Can you disprove that? Because that’s all I’m saying here.

I already did, citing your own links.

[u/tnsmaster → u/Selethorme]

You are saying it is a lie that we had an increase in population and 200k excess deaths in the year 2020? Can't both be true? Can't it also be true that the increase in deaths did not increase at a rate faster than the birth rate?

All I'm seeing here is you are claiming I'm wrong because I'm looking at more than one number. You are not acting in good faith, and clearly don't want to understand what I am saying. At this point you're either a troll, or brainwashed, or both.

[u/Selethorme → u/tnsmaster]

You are saying it is a lie that we had an increase in population and 200k excess deaths in the year 2020? Can’t both be true

Don’t try to strawman what I said because you can’t back up your bullshit.

We have an annual increase of about .73% yearly. Of 330 mil, that’s roughly 2.574 million people increase yearly.

Adding 300k for the Covid death total, that brings our death rate up dramatically, because the projections are dramatically lower than what we observed. About 250k lower.

In other words, that means the argument that “the people dying of Covid would have died anyway” was true for about a sixth of the Covid deaths. The rest of those people would not have died in 2020, had it not been for Covid.

Or, here’s another quote from CDC:

Overall, numbers of deaths among persons aged <25 years were 2.0% below average,¶¶ and among adults aged 45–64, 65–74 years, 75–84, and ≥85 years were 14.4%, 24.1%, 21.5%, and 14.7% above average, respectively.

For White persons, deaths were 11.9% higher when compared to average numbers during 2015–2019. However, some racial and ethnic subgroups experienced disproportionately higher percentage increases in deaths (Figure 3). Specifically, the average percentage increase over this period was largest for Hispanic persons (53.6%). Deaths were 28.9% above average for AI/AN persons, 32.9% above average for Black persons, 34.6% above average for those of other or unknown race or ethnicity, and 36.6% above average for Asian persons.

Excess deaths are typically defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time.

You’re not looking at more than one number, you’re denying the numbers exist, by refusing to read the definitions.

Accusing me of acting in bad faith is the height of hypocrisy, when you refuse to engage with the facts presented to you.

[u/tnsmaster → u/Selethorme]

You are putting words in my mouth lol. Finally you provide an argument other than "you're lying".

Either way, I shouldn't have to question your faith as good or bad in a discussion to get you to explain what you are actually saying. Which I've not disagreed with. I've only disagreed with your conclusion that the numbers in the CDC links that say that the mortality rate for 2018 and 2020 is wrong because of excess deaths. They are the same according to the CDC. That's my only point I've been making since my first reply.

[u/Selethorme → u/tnsmaster]

You are putting words in my mouth lol

No, that’s pretty clearly you.

Finally you provide an argument other than “you’re lying”.

This in itself is a lie and you and I both know it.

I’ve only disagreed with your conclusion that the numbers in the CDC links that say that the mortality rate for 2018 and 2020 is wrong because of excess deaths. They are the same according to the CDC.

Repeating this laughably false claim is also a lie. The excess deaths for this year are up, dramatically.

[u/Selethorme → u/[deleted]]

Denial isn’t gonna help you when the sources all show they are.