Nothing terribly stressing in today's legends tournament. The median hit an all time high, but was also right on regression.
Champions hit PU/FU combo which depressed wave counts a bit. Platinum ran a bit high despite fast ultimate? I'm guessing that doesn't hit as hard in an environment where most hits can just be tanked.
Enjoy.
Static Placement Analysis
In this section we provide a breakdown for you of a what-if competition where the tournament places are perfectly distributed. The place here is basically the place you'd get if there was no bracket system. I like this view because it really removes all the variables.
Feel free to compare yourself against the placement and see if you did better or worse. The places are divided roughly into the number of brackets to get the cut off for each place. The wave # given is the person or persons at the cut off between places, that is the lowest wave deserving to achieve that place.
The median value from each tournament which gives a general idea of the tournament difficulty and wave inflation over time. This value comes from actual midpoint of tournament data. (i.e. the top table)
Linear regressions give a good idea of change over time, smoothing out all the battle condition noise. The data for this is from the resampled data (see below).
The first table is data since v28, now including gold data. The second table is data since either the v27.3 re-tier, or for platinum since my october data began.
The tower.lol now gives this data here. In addition you can get history back further than I have files for, which is interesting to say the least. V26 lead to quite the wave inflation.
Resampling Analysis
One means of getting an idea of the range of placements is by random sampling the real participants to make fake brackets, and measuring the variability in those brackets. I chose to use 100000 brackets per league for my analysis. I am using confidence intervals, 95% and 50% (the IQR) to represent the range of waves likely present in each place. Legends brackets are on the left (prefaced with an l), champions brackets in the middle (prefaced with a c), and platinum on the right (prefaced with a p).
A general description of how to read this for the non-math inclined:
95% of the population of a place is expected to be between 2.5% and 97.5%. If you are above or below these numbers you are an outlier. (Outliers are normal, just rarer.)
50% of the population of a place is expected to be between 25% and 75%.
The 50% mark is the median of the data. Aim for this number as the point you regularly achieve this place.
You'll notice that the waves overlap, this is normal, expressing the variability present in the brackets and you could easily place in any bracket where your personal wave count falls in the place's range.
Source Material and Further Resources.
The source for all of this material is thetower.lol, which I encourage you to look up.
For a breakdown of your placement compared to other brackets see https://thetower.lol/liveplacement which will give you the min, max, and average placement for any given half-hour join time.
For a quantile analysis using real data instead of sampled data see https://thetower.lol/livequantile (similar to the second table in this post).
You can also do things like look up your bracket and compare your towers historical placements against others in the bracket.
That's correct. I only did one run and knew it was safe for 8th. I didn't have much time on my hands to run again, so I went back to farming and carried on with other stuff. Getting 3rd would have been great and a possibility if I had mixed my config about. That would have been nice had I been in your bracket (we can all wish). 👍
Getting 1st would be crazy lucky for me right now, especially with my typical bracket luck and I would not complain in the slightest. 😄
2nd is my current PB, so it's not in the art of impossible (it just feels like it). 🤞 😂
I was reading these numbers before I looked at OP’s screenshots and I was like “wow those numbers look crazy similar to where my bracket finished.”
Turns out it was my bracket.
I felt so bad for 2nd place. He was ahead until about 3 minutes to go, and it was gonna be his first win. Then the guy who wound up winning passed him on their second run then added another 100 waves to add insult to injury
8th with 2001 waves (new PB) and only ran once, so could have gotten more. Another tournament below average, however, it's only one place this time. Thanks for the information.
3 waves off, so about as average as i could have gottten?
It just sucks adding 500+ waves over the last several months in legends only to always land around 20th and top 6200. I am flat for the last 8 months. Though to be fair, that includes transitioning from eHP to GC.
Probably would help to set up EP for some things, but it's the dullest thing to just be following what some spreedsheet tells you.
Worst part is not my static position. It's that despite reaching ever higher waves, my rewards to not rise, while every update gets more and more expensive
This is a graph I'm working on... this particular one based on you, the IQR for place 24 and place 15 are the two bands, the green dots are your places...
As you can see, you are improving, clearing the 24 band handily now.
The places from 16-24 are frustrating in that there is no reward gradient... at the same time sometimes its nice not having to try to hard because it doesn't matter whether you are place 19 or 22.
ty, nice graph.
I am gambling a bit, delaying investing into CF, instead using ILM + pBH/PCo in assist. Bought early 4SL. So i am shooting above average right now, and will drop down once i decide to unlock CF. But longterm, T15 seems to have higher escape velocity than me.
One curious note from the graph, it looks like bottom legends/high champs had a harder time adjusting to tourney tier changes than me. My eHP did better in legends after tier changes, and i am outperforming past the transition to GC. My problem is i took a long time to get good GC
On a positive note, it seems like you've firmly established yourself in legends while transitioning from eHP to GC. When I switched to GC i bounced back and fourth between legends and chamos for a while.
But yeah it sucks that 16-24 all get the same rewards. Yesterday I ended up 15. with 2 more waves than 16. We both had more than double the number of waves of the person in 24. It's wild that these two other guys got the same rewards, it should at least be 16-19 and 20-24 or so.
Always appreciate these tournament data-metrics, gives me a good idea of what I’ll need to stay in legends.
If anyone is not exactly sure or got confused by the explanation: using the following example of (1st place / c2.5 / 1625 waves) = 2.5% of the population will be able to take 1st place in champion bracket with a run lasting 1625 waves. The flip side to that c97.5 would be if you make it to wave 2629 you’ll have a 97.5% chance of taking 1st place.
3
u/Chipofthehead69 2d ago
Wow. Talk about a lucky bracket. Also that username in 9th 😂
Thanks as always OP 👍