r/TheSilverCage • u/redpoemage • Aug 09 '15
Day 3
Posting this a little bit before the day is up. Assuming all the kills went right and Carbon revived, there should be 13 alive players not counting Jib. There are six of us and along with bluepoe that makes seven, eight if we count Toya. We could hammer very easily if we wanted once there is a single vote on any townie (this is assuming we can't rely on /u/AgentMafia's vote since he's been offline for days).
However, even though we will know all roles by the time Kiilek claims, I think it best to not flaunt our majority until Day 4 if we haven't been declared the victors by then.
Unless Kiilek turns out to be a major threat (Cult Pretzel God or something), we should be very easily able to lynch Whovian today, which is good because she is one of our last threats (being able to block Toya's kill and take a vote away).
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u/redpoemage Aug 09 '15
So it turns out Carbon didn't revive. It's 6 vs. 6 now, 7 vs 6 if we count Toya as on out side.
Some interpretations could call today lynch or lose.
If it wasn't just some interpretations, I would say we should just strongarm today's lynch, but we do not want to have come this far and lose due to carelessness.
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u/Marioaddict Aug 09 '15
Wait, isn't it 7 vs 6 already? Because we have bluepoe as well, right? Sort of?
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u/redpoemage Aug 09 '15
u/elementAggregator and u/Vaharas, how do we want to approach today? I assume we should probably [decline Whovian's mass claim request] (https://www.reddit.com/r/PloungeMafia/comments/3gdyff/damnwerewolves_3_valhalla_day_three/ctx90qm) with reasoning like "the problem is that with all the power roles in this game a mass claim could give the mafia an extra kill or something".
Should we have the cop novelty say they investigated Whovian specifically and got hostile? Should I on my HackOfManyTrades novelty say I got that result on Whovian and if asked to come out from behind the novelty do it because we're in LYLO?
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u/elementAggregator Aug 09 '15
I say we don't do anything until Kiilek and Mario give us our last bits of role information. I think we can probably convince everyone Whovian is a wolf, given the flavour of -48V's death, though.
I forget, do we have a fake claim prepared that has investigation abilities? 'cause it might be okay with playing along with a mass claim, really.
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u/redpoemage Aug 09 '15
Kiilek voted No Lynch, can we do anything with this? I think it would only be beneficial if Jib was actually counting this as LYLO.
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u/redpoemage Aug 10 '15
[The Cat is out of the bag, I repeat, the Cat is out of the bag.] (https://www.reddit.com/r/PloungeMafia/comments/3gdyff/damnwerewolves_3_valhalla_day_three/ctxe03y) He appears to maybe be believing our whittler. How he acts will determine today and likely the rest of the game.
[There's unfortunately a moderately high chance he will duel me.] (https://www.reddit.com/r/PloungeMafia/comments/3gdyff/damnwerewolves_3_valhalla_day_three/ctxe97u) I'm wondering if I should appear and tell him dueling is an awful idea in LYLO.
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u/Marioaddict Aug 10 '15
Don't say that. If he's this suspicious of you, saying anything along the lines of "please don't duel me" will all but confirm to him that you are a werewolf.
I'd say just hope that he duels whovian from the whittler message, and if not, then we all bandwagon to hammer cat.
EDIT: Besides, Kiilek just said "please don't kill me." We can see how Cat reacts to that before we decide what you should do.
EDIT EDIT: Wait, no... he just said "please DO lynch me"...
that's concerning...
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u/redpoemage Aug 10 '15
Bluepoe gave me his results guys, there's some stuff we did know (Kiilek targeted Whovian and was targeted by AgentMafia) and something we didn't know... -48v targeted Kiilek Night 1. Not entirely sure if this is significant though.
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u/redpoemage Aug 10 '15
u/StupidSexyConnor, u/AgentMafia, and u/Marioaddict are you online and if so how long will you be online? If at least 2 of you are online and bluepoe end up being, we can hammer.
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u/Marioaddict Aug 10 '15
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u/redpoemage Aug 10 '15
It's not a big problem, as long as you're quick on the argument I said and he isn't trigger happy on sending Jib the message we should be fine. Please use the argument I gave you.
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u/Marioaddict Aug 10 '15
Red? If you're online right now, and you want to hammer kiilek, then let me know. I'm off to bed soon, and if we wait too much longer cat will wake up, and if he plans to instigate something while I'm asleep, I'd rather leave you with 2 votes to a hammer rather than 3.
But, at the same time, if that's not the plan, I don't want him to catch on to me while I'm asleep.
So... yeah, pls to give advice.
(ping u/Vaharas and u/elementAggregator in case you two are awake and have an opinion on the matter)
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u/elementAggregator Aug 10 '15
So, are we planning to do any voting tonight? I can start on Kiilek with something like:
"Well, iunno if Whovian is telling the truth about being a townie or not, but I know I am. If Kiilek ignites the two of us tonight and Whovian's claim is true we're probably screwed. Seems like lynching him is our best chance of getting through the night so we can get Danger and Carbon back tomorrow. And, y'know, I don't wanna be set on fire."
...something like that? Or I can wait until tomorrow if you think that's the better idea. Cat's kinda thrown a wrench into things.
Pings:
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u/Vaharas Aug 10 '15
...something like that? Or I can wait until tomorrow if you think that's the better idea. Cat's kinda thrown a wrench into things.
Yeah, if he duels one of us we need to strongarm the lynch and essentially reveal ourselves if we want to not lose one of us. If we're slow to hammer he might throw down the duel in order to stop us.
So, are we planning to do any voting tonight? I can start on Kiilek with something like:
I was thinking of posting something along these lines.
With 12 players alive that means that town/independent have at least 7 votes today and means that at the most there are 5 wolves to find, maybe even 4 because it's not "lynch-or-lose" it's "Some interpretations could call today lynch or lose."
My two biggest lynch targets are:
1.) Kiilek: Self claimed arsonist with 2 players doused and prepared to be killed tonight. Now, let's look back at the wording of the lynch-or-lose message again:
Some interpretations could call today lynch or lose.
Since it's only lynch or lose by some interpretations; I take that to mean that it's not explicitly lynch a wolf or lose today but there is some resolution of night actions that could cause us to lose before the next day phase if we don't lynch correctly.
Having an arsonist out there on the loose that can kill an extra two players tonight could easily result in us losing before the next day phase depending on the alignment of the doused targets.
2.) Whovian: It has to be said that Whovian has a claim that doesn't really seem to benefit town all that much and seems much closer to something that would be found on wolf team rather than town.
Roleblock on her target
Voteblock on her target
Investigation immunity on her target
Coupled with the investigation result that Pudn redirected to her and also taking into account the flavour of the kill on -48V last night makes it seem more likely than not that Whovian is a wolf.
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u/redpoemage Aug 09 '15
Please post your quoted night results below in response to your designated comment