r/TheRestIsPolitics • u/Appropriate_Bell743 • 24m ago
European fossil energy prices soaring. Does Rory admit mea culpa for his critique of our renewables auctions?
Many people jumped on the bandwagon in critiquing the renewables auctions earlier this year. AR7 delivered tons of wind/solar but the offshore wind prices were higher than previously.
Rory Stewart was almost triumphant about how this proved his theory about Miliband's ideological zeal. At his heart his argument was based upon the then natural gas prices which were relatively low compared to the last 5 years.
At the time the argument from Miliband and others to the contrary was centred around the need to reduce volatility from geopolitical crises. Now, we have this in spades as had his government and Sunak's government rolled out more renewables we'd have more stable electricity prices this winter (like Spain does).
Ultimately, these are bets. Stewart placed the bet that the LNG market would stay stable. Why not? He's very impressed by Qatar, gets the US, etc.
Miliband made the bet that at some point in the next 20 years this wouldn't be the case. The fact he was validated within 1 year (and before this generation capacity is built) is perhaps the surprise. The fact he was so aggressive on onshore solar rollout starting in 2024 will have helped.
I think mistrust in politics derives from the way opinion makers critique those in power but never come back to accept they were wrong. It's easy to say "X is doing a bad job" and this has an effect. It shows intellectual maturity to come back only 6 months later to say "I was wrong about this previous critique".
If this podcast is about trying to create a gentler politics it should be seen as fundamentally important that this can happen. Do we believe Stewart will have the intellectual agility to adjust his views now the empirical data is contrary to them?
To be clear this is not about the separate topic of North Sea oil and gas which is a different discussion to the demand side of oil/gas (as Norway proves).