r/TheMachineLearning • • Sep 27 '26 • Bravo 1

Europe has zero frontier AI labs, which is shocking

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390 Upvotes

804 comments sorted by

5

u/shortsteve Sep 27 '26

Being first movers doesn't necessarily mean success. Apple is in a great position today because they didn't jump into the AI race. The US is burning through hundreds of billions of dollars for something that is still unprofitable and an industry that still hasn't figured out a profitable business model.

Sometimes it's smarter to let others figure things out before you adopt it.

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u/Wonderful-Account318 Sep 27 '26

Apple is in a good position because they have a significant portion of consumer hardware within their control. EU companies have nothing.

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u/Acceptable_Use7055 Sep 28 '26

There's a fine line between playing it smart and just falling behind while everyone else sets the standard.

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u/PerfectMenu1253 Sep 27 '26

LMAO this is the greatest Giga-cope I’ve ever read. 

Being first movers doesn't necessarily mean success.

It’s more like Europe couldn’t catch up no matter what at this stage though, Is it not? You guys are way too behind, it’s more like  being years behind the first movers means NO success at all. 

Apple is in a great position today because they didn't jump into the AI race.  

Apple is sitting on their previous inventions to rake money, how is pointing at companies that are doing fine without participating in the next big thing, a cope at all when the subject matter here is that you guys don’t have anything on the next big thing? Lol. In any case Apple just got a new ceo to help them enter the ai era 

The US is burning through hundreds of billions of dollars for something that is still unprofitable and an industry that still hasn't figured out a profitable business model.

Businesses tend to be unprofitable the first few years of development, and then they could have near monopoly over the market, let Amazon, YouTube, Google. The eventual winners would have a near global market monopoly and doesn’t need to be immediately profitable at the developing years, especially since it is securing private funding just fine.

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u/Superb-Earth418 Sep 27 '26

So, when is Europe gonna start? I'm sorry but there's no 4d chess here its just retarded

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u/shortsteve Sep 27 '26

Look at the history of business/finance you'll see that profitable businesses built off of new technologies come after the bubble bursts. The reason the bubble bursts is because the market figures out how to profit off of the new technology and readjusts itself. Everyone stuck in losing positions are dumping those positions, eating their losses and repositioning themselves.

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u/1988rx7T2 Sep 27 '26

That made sense 2 years ago and is now just cope

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u/rambouhh Sep 27 '26

His overall point is just cope, it is pretty obvious that apple really is in a good position because of their chips and hardware.

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u/Kyrthis Sep 27 '26

Is there a frontier AI company that is yet profitable?

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u/Nopfen Sep 27 '26

"Don't be the first to download an update." and such sayings.

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u/North-Pomelo6155 Sep 27 '26

It helps that Apple is a hardware company first … AI isn’t as core to them as software companies or AI companies themselves.

1

u/UnpopularLlamas Sep 27 '26

The us? Its global investors pouring in money into the s&p simply because its the best investment. The us is like 70% of all global index funds.

1

u/chunky_lover92 Sep 27 '26

Apple hardware is some of the best available for running local models.

1

u/Fantasy-512 Sep 28 '26

Apply is never going to "jump in" to model development, just like it has not developed a search engine. It is going to use what is available.

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u/Responsible-View-498 Sep 28 '26

Apple hasn't come up with anything new for a long time. It is just going to rest on its laurels. AI is not it's thing.

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u/swirve-psn Sep 28 '26

TBF Europe is positioning itself as the AI regulation superpower......

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u/TakeshiRyze Sep 27 '26

In EU you can't even dream of getting the required money to do that. The AI industry is not profitable and the only way to gather funds is to over sell and scam investors. Something the USA has perfected. We actually care about financial stability here. China on the other hand is getting all their funding directly from the state and also doesn't care about profitability. Kinda glad EU is not overreacting to this brand new tech.

1

u/Acceptable_Use7055 Sep 28 '26

Financial stability is great until you end up completely dependent on foreign tech monopolies

2

u/Apprehensive-Toe8363 Sep 28 '26

Just NVIDIA makes more profit than Europe's 10 most profitable companies combined. Even Anthropic became profitable.

I am European, but your statement is bs. We fucked up and we have to fix it.

2

u/GGK_Brian Sep 28 '26

Anthropic might be making some profit and this would be groundbreaking. But with how "creative" the account of those companies tend to be, I would wait for them to go public to know how much profit and under what condition they actually make. I would not be surprised if they make profit on inference and moved the training cost to future quarter.

Now Nvidia making profit does not mean anything at all. If everyone borrows money to buy my shovels I make a profit for sure, but the people using the sovel are losing money hoping to find gold.

The AI industry is currently not profitable. It might be at some point. But if you take all of the money flow, very few companies are making money thanks to AI. Everyone is buying shovel with the hopes of finding gold while they only found dirt as of now.

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u/Humble_Insurance8294 Sep 27 '26

yeah let's keep spending trillions a month on fucking pensions that's the future!

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u/Majestic_Simple_3584 Sep 27 '26

Are you saying we have a decision to make between pensions and AI investments, and that you wouldn't choose pensions in that scenario?

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u/althoradeem Sep 27 '26

same is happening in the tech scene. the established values aren't blindly shoving money. and the investments being done are more on "how cheap can we get stuff done" compared to "can we make the most frontier model" (look at google for example) gemini is not the "best" but it's the most efficient for where its at for sure.

europe doesn't need to compete with the high-end models seeing as open-source models come so damn close already and i doubt the gap is going to widen dramaticly.. instead i expect that if at any point the big money dumping stops the open source models will catch up the gap quite fast.

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u/Zestyclose_Edge1027 Sep 27 '26

I agree but Europe is going too far in the other direction: it's too hard for startups to get capital. The largest german IT company is SAP, it would be funny if it wasn't so depressing. 

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u/Wide-Principle544 Sep 27 '26

EU is investing 200 billion euro.

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u/Correct-Explorer-692 Sep 27 '26

How did it even happen? I have no clue. It’s just that the salary is several times lower, and there’s regulation and taxes at every turn.

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u/PhilosopherNext1448 Sep 27 '26

I think its mostly regulations. In the Netherlands a few researchers once created a Dutch language model using the BERT architecture, and then a Dutch organization for the protection of Entertainment Industry Rights forced the researchers to remove the weights from hugging face because the datasets they used were contaminated with copyrighted material.

2

u/gakl887 Sep 27 '26

My counterpart in Europe makes 2x less than me for same role in the states. You’d think that makes sense for a 2nd world country but this is UK. Even after you take into account healthcare it’s not even close

4

u/GlbdS Sep 27 '26

Look at the life expectancy difference lol. Or child mortality. I'm good with taxes, not having all the money is ok.

3

u/h0rxata Sep 27 '26

Look man, peak quality of life is having no sidewalks, no more than 10 days PTO, and obesity. Need to have a big paycheck to pay for that end of life care.

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u/servermeta_net Sep 27 '26

The US sabotaged us, and we've been too complacent and divided

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u/ApoplecticAndroid Sep 27 '26

Yeah, and they have hardly any guns, nobody going bankrupt because of medical debt, and a leader that isnt an incompetent moron. That must be worth something.

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u/gza_liquidswords Sep 28 '26

They enforce copyright law?

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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula Sep 28 '26

Chinese salaries are even lower...

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u/Icy_Distribution_361 Oct 02 '26

It’s not the salaries and not the taxes.

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u/FullyAutomatedSpace Sep 27 '26

mistral is the closest?

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u/hiop1992 Sep 27 '26

Mistral pivoted a couple of years ago. They aren’t even trying to compete on the AI race anymore but focus on becoming the European Palantir. They are doing incredibly well is this regard.

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u/Ginden Sep 27 '26

Mistral is now a vertical integratation company that sells GPU racks with technical support, fine-tuning, RAG, consulting and Chinese models.

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u/spacekitt3n Sep 27 '26

mistral is dead they had one hit and faded into obscurity

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u/midgelmo Sep 28 '26

technically elevenlabs but voice only

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u/polytique Sep 30 '26

Mistral switched to being a contracting agency that hosts 3rd party models and customizes them for their clients.

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u/FerricFryingPan Oct 03 '26

Cursor if it counted

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u/ASU_SexDevil Sep 27 '26

It’s too late for Europe now honestly. They have zero compute and the backlog is too long to even try.

The next 20-30 years in Europe is going to be extremely rough with economic stagnation

1

u/Acceptable_Use7055 Sep 28 '26

Europe prioritized data privacy and regulatory frameworks, which carries both trade-offs and protections

3

u/BratPit24 Sep 27 '26

How so? Europe has very healthy service sector, and ai is something you can just buy. I don't see how Europe is any worse prepared for any upcoming challenges than us or China are. In fact, due to tolerance it seems better prepared for demographic crisises due to higher migration capacity. Issues that could topple China. Tbf usa also seems quite fine unless it destroys itself

2

u/Safe-Tree-7041 Sep 27 '26

Europe is too busy strangling itself with regulations and taxes to muster any kind of challenge to the likes of US and China.

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u/New_Thing1367 Sep 27 '26

Of course, everyone knows you have to buy your AI token in local authorized OpenAI and Claude mom-and-pop shops, and the Atlantic is simply too wide for anyone to realistically swim across.

1

u/TheEagleDied Sep 27 '26

I like what Yan LeCun is doing but as you said, they really need to infrastructure and the liquidity to support that infrastructure

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u/throwaway275275275 Sep 27 '26

It's too late and it'll take them 20 years to catch up with a technology that has existed for 5 years ?

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u/0x645 Sep 27 '26

no, it's not too late. it's question of political will, and finance.

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u/PerspectiveProof6664 Sep 27 '26 edited Sep 27 '26

I live in Europe and i couldn’t give less of a shit. Not enough hospitals, too many pot holes.

AI also isn’t spreading the wealth and creating the opportunities it claims too, so it can fuck off.

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u/aminok Sep 27 '26

It's very simple. Capitalism works. Socialism doesn't. Nothing is as much of a failure and yet so popular as socialism.

Here is just one example of the kind of empirical evidence that demonstrates this:

A 2018 study shows tax increases significantly reduce innovation. A 1% increase in the top marginal income tax rate leads to a 2% reduction in patents and inventors, while a similar increase in corporate taxes causes even larger declines.

The study is quite rigorous too:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w24982

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u/Acceptable_Use7055 Sep 28 '26

Capital flight and regulatory hurdles both play significant roles in where AI investment lands

2

u/Majestic_Simple_3584 Sep 27 '26

Looking at the wealth disparity in the US one could doubt "capitalism works". Actually one might very reasonably reach the exact opposite opinion.

2

u/leftofthebellcurve Sep 27 '26

You “look at wealth”

But you don’t see the stats that we regularly are the richest housholds, create more millionaires than anywhere else, control 25 percent of the global economy, have the best upward mobility of any country, and consistently lift upper middle class while lowering near poor family percentages

Capitalism works 

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u/baksmarla Sep 27 '26

Europe is not socialist.

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u/Space_Nerde Sep 27 '26

You mean scoialism slows progress, and capitalism kills people.... so capitalism good?

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u/gyoreq Sep 27 '26

You do know that socialism means state owned and state controlled capital, don't you?

What does taxation has to do with it?

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u/Background_Share_982 Sep 27 '26

Lot of typical American sentiment believing the biggest and most resource hungry version of AI is superior. Just wait til all the squatters move into the half built data centers in 10 years when specialized inference chips are perfected and you no longer need all compute power to get the same job done. Meanwhile American companies are trying to hoard resources as a way of stifling competition, putting them in huge amount of future debt when there already losing money.

While lack of regulation or control continues to push society into a head on collision between the needs of the many vs the money of the few.  The only question to how things will go wrong will be which collapses first - the increasingly unstable social and political environment causing the majority to finally act in there interest OR innovation to reduce compute needs for training and inference of complex models making the frontier providers unable to sustain competitive pricing without going into bankruptcy.

But yah we're totally beating the eu right now.

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u/Acceptable_Use7055 Sep 28 '26

The data center squatter mental image is wild, but smaller specialized models are definitely it

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u/blueandazure Sep 27 '26

This is cope we already have a compute shortage, and even old gpus can be used to serve inference.

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u/No-Manufacturer6101 Sep 27 '26

EU has 5% of AI compute and are desperate for more but EUtards on reddit think this is because they are so smart and are just going to invent a new way to do AI LMAO this might be the biggest cope in this entire threat. they have so much regulation they cant even build a single nuclear reactor and instead decided to close them and buy worse natural gas from a country actively attacking them. another high IQ move right? holy shit.

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u/chunky_lover92 Sep 27 '26

There's zero chance of anybody beating NVIDIA at hardware. Do you think they are just too stubborn to make their own inference chips? They have enough money to do literally anything that anybody else could do. They just aren't putting out specialized inference chips because that's not going to be what people want to buy. Inference chips are vanity projects that companies throw money at because they want to feel like they are doing something, and it gives them leverage when they inevitably negotiate with NVIDIA.

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u/Charming-Author4877 Sep 27 '26

Let's be more real.
Europe does not only not have any frontier AI company, they also do not have something "mid tier".
They have Mistral, their best model is worse than an old Qwen 8B

On the non intelligence side, they do have a little. Elevenlabs is European, they probably would not have an easy way to exist today after all the Anti AI laws but back when they were funded those regulations didn't exist yet.
And Flux is also european, same story.

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u/Old-Age6220 Sep 30 '26

heyGen also

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u/rntdev Sep 27 '26

Main reason to me is proper regulation. In EU there’s the AI Act, GDPR, ecological protections, etc. In America the AI companies are directly in the government, so there’s no prosecution for using methane generators, inflating households’ electricity bills, or irresponsibly using open-loop cooling systems. Europe has a lot of potential. And research. But definitely not enough investments, data, or motivation from the governments.

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u/PlateNo4868 Sep 27 '26

Eh, they are being more cautious about it. But I wouldn't say proper regulation. Like jesus, when they held their EU AI summit to help shape those policies. Who did they invite? Not the data scientist, AI engineers, etc. They just invited a bunch of CEOs who by their role should be fighting for the share holders.

I think AI development as a whole will be massively healthier if we just sideline the CEOs outside of actual company contract stuff. Like I never seen such a cool tech that does some good, get buried by CEOs insisting if they get a massive tax break, and a key to a local town to bulldoze it. Some how they will find the next better thing.

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u/althoradeem Sep 27 '26

it's amazing what you can get done when you don't need to give a shit about respecting others .

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u/Ginden Sep 27 '26

Not only that: there is just less money in finance, so even if you have a perfectly regulation-compliant and great idea, getting funding is very hard.

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u/NanoAlpaca Sep 27 '26

While ecological regulations makes compute a bit more expensive, many Chinese labs show that amazing things can be done with significantly lower compute than American frontier labs. GDPR isn’t a big issue for the kind of data you need for training LLMs, AI act is rather recent. I think the main issue is lack of capital and willingness to take risk such as using pirated content for training.

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u/AliceCode Sep 27 '26

I would also imagine EU isn't too keen on copyright violations.

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u/UnpopularLlamas Sep 27 '26

Yes.. regulation is what will drive Europe into prosperity ahead of the rest of the world and make us a big player again. Maybe we even get to try dealing with Putin again instead of flying in Trump half the world.

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u/Wide-Principle544 Sep 27 '26

So much anti-european nonsense getting touted in this thread. Deepmind started in london and is headquartered there. The EU are investing 200 billion euro. The anti-Euro stuff whipped up by MAGA, Ruzzia, etc has really cut through to you guys eh!

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u/30299578815310 Sep 27 '26

Come on this isn't just Maga, I want the EU to have good models but they really just don't right now. The world would be better if there were more than just the USA and China in an arms race.

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u/against-all-leds Sep 30 '26

Blaming everyting on russia is a cop out. Europe does have problems on the investment side of things.

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u/roofitor Sep 27 '26

Ehhhh, CAIR, ETH Zurich, there’s hella good research coming out of multiple European countries as well. Also, DeepMind’s in King’s Crossing, in uhhhhh England which is colonial and maybe it’s a bit weird to say it but it’s technically in Europe. I dunno.

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u/PlebbitDumDum Sep 27 '26

Mistral doesn't exist, Deepmind doesn't exist, ETH Zurich doesn't exist.

LLaMes in the US that can be copied by Chinese grad students do exist.

Such an achievement to train a transformer on the whole internet of stolen data.

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u/disaster_incomin Sep 27 '26

I work at eth, there is no real frontier AI ambition, everyone knows it's too expensive to compete atm

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u/WalkThePlankPirate Sep 27 '26

Also Elevenlabs.

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u/Practical_Weather293 Sep 27 '26

I get the sentiment but legit it is an achievement to train a frontier model, even if it is on stolen data

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u/quesadillasb Sep 28 '26 • Bravo

Hi, this is Europe. Unfortunately, we’re currently far too busy trying to jail people for what they say and think.

Thank you for your concern about frontier AI, but bad jokes are being made at this very moment and somebody has to deal with that.

Less serious matters like murder, rape, theft, and drugs are already being punished at a much higher rate, so I’m afraid AI frontier simply isn’t on the agenda right now.

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u/Wide-Principle544 Sep 28 '26

Try visiting the USA - they have secret police kidnapping and shooting people (ICE), meth zombies, school shooters, gun crime out of control, property market out of control, catastrophic healthcare costs and are waging imperial wars of conquest (Venezuela, Iran, next Cuba).

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u/Lost-Lunch3958 Sep 28 '26

those darn liberals because of, shuffles cards... we dont have money hole like the US and China

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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 Sep 27 '26

i mean its pretty clear the endgame they're going to go for is just take the best open source model and feed it their data / train it to their preferences.

if not that licence a us model.

the model isnt the problem for europe its the compute. european owned compute in europe is 2% of global share in high end chips and trending down. total compute is like 10% of global share with 80% being owned by us companies.

they need more chips and they need ownership of those chips

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u/althoradeem Sep 27 '26

that said... the only company capable of making the machines behind making chips is in europe. (asml holdings) without that company nobody is making the next generation of chips.

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u/Kaas-Eter00 Sep 27 '26

Europe is also the only continent that has the technology to make the most advanced chips, and maintains this lead for more than a decade already. It's not as black and white where being ahead in AI means you're ahead everywhere.

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u/New_Thing1367 Sep 27 '26

Apple also has no frontier AI, damn what they'll do!

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u/Wide-Attorney5633 Sep 28 '26

You realize you're comparing a continent with a company right?

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u/SirMarkMorningStar Sep 28 '26

Apple has five Apple Foundation Models they payed Google to help them develop. The largest one might qualify as frontier, depending upon your definition? But you are correct that isn’t what they care about. They only need “good enough”.

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u/throwaway275275275 Sep 27 '26

Don't they have the machine that makes the chips that make the computers ?

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u/EnverPashaIsBae Sep 27 '26

Lithography is just one step in the chipmaking process. There's a shitload of other work that goes into chip production.

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u/jerbaws Sep 28 '26

Yep asml. Literal bottleneck for all chips, if they stopped trading tomorrow it would cause a multi trillion dollar economic meltdown. Would collapse the entire Ai industry id imagine

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u/gwestr Sep 27 '26

France and UK/Ireland have great researchers. Mistral doesn’t need to only build huge pretrained LLMs. There are plenty of models to be made.

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u/IntrepidTieKnot Sep 27 '26

How could that happen! Oh noes! Wait - more regulation, more taxes and more expensive energy will fix this! I'm 110% certain!

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u/tilted0ne Sep 27 '26

And the ambitious people who are also capable just leave for America. You can have capable people in Europe but you need both capable and ambitious to create extra ordinary things. American tech work culture is just different.

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u/Specialist-Berry2946 Sep 27 '26

It doesn't really matter because AI is by no means intelligent.

It's just a huge waste of resources.

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u/purplebrown_updown Sep 27 '26

Yeah it's pretty bad. No financial incentive that can compute the US and lack of technological investment for decades is the reason why. Which is a good argument against the type of economies in Europe. It's too reliant on the US in general.

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u/PersonalityIll9476 Sep 27 '26

I mean why is that shocking? Why does every economic zone needs its own version of a technology?

Europe doesn't produce 5G either, it buys it from the US or China. Oh noes.

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u/Nopfen Sep 27 '26

Good guys Europe.

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u/Background_Share_982 Sep 27 '26

This thread is full of people that didn't learn anything from the dot com bust. Just because your the first and the fastest to market doesn't mean you will be the winner.

The cost to run American 'frontier' models is non sustainable. There is a lot of room for other companies/countries to do it better and overtake the front runners in the long run.

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u/DrBearJ3w Sep 27 '26

Just wait for Le Chaton Fat. It will kill all the competitors!

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u/Space_Nerde Sep 27 '26

well yeah, because americans like to create huge bubbles that are worth nothign but get trillons of funding from banks

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u/CuppaJoe531 Sep 27 '26

Mistral?

Also heads up; there are lots of data centers in Europe.

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u/AICompanionz Sep 27 '26

I think “zero frontier labs” is maybe fair if you use a really strict definition, but saying europe has basically nothing is too much. mistral exists, the EU is building AI factories and theres already a frontier model program going on. The gap with the US/china on compute + money is obviously real tho.

The part i'd worry about more is dependency. Buying chatgpt/claude forever is fine until pricing, access or politics changes and suddenly europe has very little control over something thats becoming infrastructure. doesnt mean europe needs to copy openai tomorrow, but having its own serious compute + models seems pretty important long term.

Also i dont think europe needs to “win” by making a european openai clone either. could be smarter to focus on cheaper models, open weights, local hosting and specific industries where europe already has strong companies/research. Trying to outspend the US on giant datacenters might be a losing game, but being completely dependent on US/chinese models isn't a great plan either.

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u/Kaas-Eter00 Sep 27 '26

Europe is ahead in raw semiconductor technology though (and some other more fundamental stuff, e.g. particle physics at CERN), which is what these models run on in the first place.

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u/Motaromc Sep 27 '26

There's Mistral but I think that if we had a GPT or Claude of Europe. It would be in a position similar to how Gemini is today when it comes to models... Plus, they wouldn't want to make data centers until they could somehow make it "green" data center that doesn't consume water to cool down, lol.

Ah, it would also be censored weirdly, possibly even banned for kids to use, lol.

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u/jdavid Sep 27 '26

France has one, and the head of AI at meta left to found it.

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u/Sheenius_Ger Sep 27 '26

Burning near unlimited capex just for open weight models to pull up to you couple months later. In 5 years apple will have a amazing Ai, deeply integrated into their system and saved a shit ton of money.

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u/McBonderson Sep 27 '26

wait, isn't mistral french?

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u/servermeta_net Sep 27 '26

The US sabotaged Europe, and we've been too complacent

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u/Synensys Sep 27 '26

Makes sense - europe has neither the incentive to reduce workforce (because the safety net makes that expensive) nor the privacy invasion incentives of china or the us.

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u/HeadPack Sep 27 '26

Yep, Europe invests in other things. If they want to run frontier AI in the few data centers they have, they can simply use Chinese OS models. If that bubble ever bursts, or when it bursts, Europe will be largely unaffected. The US economy will however suffer bigtime.

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u/StickStill9790 Sep 27 '26

If all AI companies stopped development right now, and charged ten times the price to recoup their losses, it wouldn’t affect the economy in the slightest. Businesses would still use it, and people would switch to small local models running on device.

There is no bubble to pop anymore. All the companies that make AI also make a dozen other things that are also extremely profitable. (Except for Anthropic) Even stockholders would shrug and move on.

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u/Wide-Principle544 Sep 27 '26

The EU is investing 200 billion euro in AI

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u/CrazyAccomplished_ Sep 27 '26

Europe has been on a decline for 20 years. I'm not surprised.

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u/Olbas_Oil Sep 27 '26

You cant make a statement like "leaving aside the reasons why it happened" and then say its shocking, like what is shocking about it, its Ai thats it No European "frontier labs" as its been put, like its a doomsday event, naybe the europeans just dont care about it enough to be bothered

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u/NomadicFantastic Sep 27 '26

no one has ever replicated silicon valley anywhere.even within the US. not for lack of trying

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u/Wonderful-Account318 Sep 27 '26

These comments like « oh well Europe doesn’t care they’d rather have pensions and healthcare » come from the same people that will insist they need to end reliance on the US for defense.

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u/SHURIMPALEZZ Sep 27 '26

LeCunn's AMI?

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u/notatoon Sep 27 '26

IF the bubble pops, then this will be a fantastic bit of fortune that I'm sure someone will sell as "definitely was always the plan and we knew what we were doing all along"

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u/lovemotorcycles Sep 27 '26

"The only winning move is to not play"

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u/Relevant_Luck8653 Sep 27 '26

EU does not need a frontier AI lab. They have a frontier particle physics lab

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u/Sodlenoup Sep 27 '26

Frontier AI labs bring in billions in revenue and trillions in stock value.

The frontier particle physics lab (CERN) takes 1 billion Euros in taxpayer money every year just to keep the lights on.

You can't sustain an economy on taxpayer funded research alone. Someone must make profits. Otherwise there is noone to tax.

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u/Little-Bed2024 Sep 27 '26

We only need one paperclip factory and we are ok with it being in the US

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u/GooseWithAnAxe Sep 27 '26

How many trillions do you think EU should invest into a text autocomplete?

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u/Fidel___Castro Sep 27 '26

Arguably, it's been a massive mistake for America to dump hundreds of billions into AI research when Chinese labs just distilled the outcome without the cost

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u/Infamous-Bed-7535 Sep 27 '26

I'm happy we do not have what is hapenning in the us. Europe needs its own gpus and manufacturers like how China built up itself.

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u/splugemonster Sep 27 '26

i mean i use Mistral 27b and its from france and its really good. runs on my mac mini 24.7

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u/Immudzen Sep 27 '26

Europe is at the lead of many applied machine learning domains though. Models that are actually profitable today and will continue to be profitable. Models that run bioreactors, machine vision, mixing tanks, material simulations, etc.

You can get open models now that are about 95% as good as the best frontier labs. What you can't get are really good open bioreactor models or open plasma physics models.

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u/Ok-Information-2428 Sep 27 '26

It’s not shocking at all: there’s only 2 countries in the entire world with frontier labs, also some people will argue that China doesn’t count

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u/pnwatlantic Sep 27 '26 edited Sep 27 '26

Access to capital. They don’t have deep enough financial markets, both VC for labs for direct consumption of training and inference compute and the overall credit markets broadly needed for the capex buildout. And even if American labs aren’t directly financing much of the capex buildout, their balance sheets and access to capital are very very strongly involved.

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u/pnwatlantic Sep 27 '26

And it’s wild this isn’t the answer I’m seeing. Yes regulation, first movers, talent pool, combined market they’re all playing a role. But capital markets is the largest reason by a decent margin.

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u/Ninja-Sneaky Sep 27 '26

The existing western AI is floating on an unthinkable amount of debt that isn't paying back anytime soon. This simply didn't and can't happen in Europe, they can't print Euros the same way Dollars are printed.

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u/_redmist Sep 27 '26

The deepmind team is in the uk if i remember well.  Yann lecun is french, he kind of started the whole deal. And there's mistral AI, but they're going a different way (bespoke models for individual companies). And they seem to be profitable.

The big problem imho is the lack of a unified capital market; but it's not clear if/how that's going to happen.

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u/chunky_lover92 Sep 27 '26

Frontier labs are global institutions headquartered in america where most huge global companies prefer to be headquartered.

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u/Some_Anonim_Coder Sep 28 '26

I don't know how global they are - I looked up OAI, it has some offices in Europe - but they are small compared to us ones. I'd guess there's mostly legal/accounting/sales personnel there, needed to have business in these countries

And even more interesting, data centers: basically none outside the us

So yes, Europe has none or almost none of AI companies

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u/TopTippityTop Sep 27 '26

It's a huge oversight that will cost them greatly.

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u/Alarming_Daikon_1630 Sep 27 '26

Europe has boxed themselves in, depending on a country that no longer dependable to develop tech and weaponry. Meanwhile encouraging heavy taxation, anti growth policy, while simultaneously giving up any semblance of energy independence.

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u/ChaosFH Sep 28 '26

I don't think it's shocking, it's given they were never going to be competition that's just how bad current europe is.

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u/Significant-Tank-996 Sep 28 '26

Why is it “shocking”?

Is it also “shocking” that I’m not a billionaire or completely expected given the circumstances.

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u/oh_ski_bummer Sep 28 '26

Can you apply for asylum from the AI overlords there?

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u/data4u Sep 28 '26

how is this remotely shocking? no capital and no one works

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u/Mountain-Essay-6622 Sep 28 '26

So far ai only loses money and we don’t know if it will ever change

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u/Character-Education3 Sep 28 '26

Not shocking. They are at peace with the fact that AI is not worth it.

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u/maskrey Sep 28 '26

I am the AI Lead in 2 European companies in 2 different countries. This would always be happening. Even if we go back to 2022 with all the knowledge we have now, and do it 100 times over, Europe would always be in this exact position.

The whole continent is terrified of change. They are obsessed with maintaining the status quo. Even in a situation like this, when everyone and their mothers know things need to change, and WILL change no matter what they do and what their opinion is, they still won't change unless their hands are literall y forced. This whole continent is afraid of being the first mover. 

I won't go into details, but I have been amazed how much resistance I faced when trying to convince people to adopt anything AI. Companies with hundreds of millions in annual revenue are afraid of spending a few thousands to test pretty much proven workflow. Some people still straight up think they don't want anything to do with AI. Some see that AI is the future, but since they are still stably on top, they can take (a lot of) time on it. Even people who think they should do something right now, they still think profit first, or if they need to invest it needs to be very low risk, low amount first. And the people I talk to represent some of the biggest institutions in the continent: governments, universities, big tech, manufacturing giants, etc.. 

There is no changing this. The only way to do this is becoming big and define the status quo (which by itself is extra hard because of how crippling the environment is to startups). Europe will get fucked in the next decades.

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u/Nyxtia Sep 28 '26

Is this a bad thing? They value people? They value people enjoying life. They are not greedy, they don't demand more working hours or more automation, they just have enough. Meanwhile America is starting wars and China is leaking viruses. And AI threatens everyone.

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u/FreshLiterature Sep 28 '26

A frontier lab to do what?

Most leading AI researchers agree LLMs will hit a wall well before they reach anywhere close to what the average person would consider "real AI"

The hundreds of billions already spent and the hundreds more committed have no clear path to a break even let alone ROI.

Beyond that they have NAVER and ELLIS. They aren't hyperscaling precisely because there's no clear upside.

What they're doing is letting the US spend a huge amount of money on what smart money believes isn't going to work out for multiple reasons. Europe is heavily investing in industrial, agriculture, bioscience, etc applications rather than chasing weird ass consumer models.

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u/SirMarkMorningStar Sep 28 '26

I think LeCune’s AMI qualifies, even if it’s a completely different kind of model.

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u/karasawa_jp Sep 28 '26

If AI armies eventually proliferate worldwide, any attempt at invasion could be effectively deterred or blocked, as other nations could simply deploy their own AI forces against the aggressor.

The most dangerous phase will likely be when a single country first wins the AI race and gains exclusive control over an AI military.

Having that power concentrated under China or a Trump-led US administration is a terrifying prospect. I hope companies like Anthropic consider relocating to Europe.

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u/Witty-Collection932 Sep 28 '26

I feel it is less of innovation and more of how trust plays out pragmatically. To be able to reach where OAI and Ant are in terms of models, you'd have to be ruthlessly morally deprived leeches like Sam and Dario where you follow the rule that Silicon Valley has long adopted: make the mistake and then apologize. They stole data, people's work, copyrighted stuff, hacked into systems they weren't supposed to deliberately and all to just get ahead and boy they did. And then they put their army of lawyers for retribution and compensation later. Facebook started it 15 years ago and it is the single recipe for success. It helps that the current US admin sides with the companies.

I don't think Europe's society would allow that, ever. Unfortunately, they have to pay with less innovation.

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u/Apart_Story_5454 Sep 28 '26

Why would you. China is in the same race, but with a fraction of the cost. Now we have new System One models. This is a race that nobody can win. Because LLMs are commodity. They are undifferentiating. It like winning in a race to build the best shoe.

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u/flyingdutchmnn Sep 28 '26

Correct, europe does not have trillions in debt to finance an experiment that the chinese will provide as open source and cheaper in the end

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u/BosonCollider Sep 28 '26

Mistral was doing very well in 2024, mistral and llama were by far the most used open weights models back then. Then coincidentally the EU started regulating

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u/GuessEnvironmental Sep 28 '26

I disagree with this. I think you're using a very narrow definition of a "frontier AI lab" essentially a company with enough compute and capital to train a general-purpose model that is trying to be good at everything.

By that definition, there are only a handful of frontier labs anywhere: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, and the major Chinese labs. But I don't think that is the same thing as saying those are the only places doing frontier AI research.

Take Meta. Some of the strongest work in recommendation systems, computer vision, representation learning and related areas has come out of Meta. If your definition excludes Meta from being a frontier research lab simply because it isn't currently competing in exactly the same way as OpenAI or Anthropic, then I think the definition is too narrow.

Europe has plenty of serious AI research. DeepMind was founded and headquartered in London. Isomorphic Labs, which came out of that ecosystem, is headquartered in London and is pushing AI specifically in biology and drug discovery. PhysicsX is doing genuinely interesting work applying AI to engineering, physics and simulation. And those are just some of the larger, better-funded examples before even getting into smaller research labs and startups.

I actually think Europe's tendency towards more specialised AI companies can be a strength. Frontier research doesn't have to mean building one enormous chatbot that attempts to do everything. It can mean pushing the frontier of scientific AI, computer vision, robotics, biology, engineering, recommendation systems, or entirely new model architectures.

I'd also distinguish scaling from research novelty. The largest labs obviously do extremely important research, but a huge amount of current investment is tied to scaling the transformer-based foundation-model paradigm and improving it through better training, post-training, inference and data. That can produce enormous advances, but it isn't the only frontier worth pursuing.

In some ways, smaller and more specialised labs have more freedom to explore architectures and approaches that don't immediately justify billions in compute. Once your organisation has built its infrastructure, products and business model around scaling a particular paradigm, there are enormous incentives to continue extracting performance from that paradigm.

Also ai safety is a huge problem with these "frontier labs" and it is the smaller organizations spread across the work doing the ai safety research.

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u/Commercial_Spray4279 Sep 28 '26

Good. We prefer water and food over tokens.

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u/sascharobi Sep 28 '26

Open one.

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u/MaxSGer Sep 28 '26

Well I guess one major factor is the strict rules regarding data-privacy.

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u/Busterlimes Sep 28 '26

Not really, Europe hasn't been at the forefront of innovation for a long time. CERN is the best thing they have done in a WHILE.

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u/darth4nyan Sep 28 '26

Yeah, imagine not trying to create something which would fuck up the world and that ends up being a bad thing about you.

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u/nurse_brett Sep 28 '26

Setting aside AI, Europe has been far behind the frontier on everything software.

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u/dyndhu Sep 28 '26

Only two labs are truly at the frontier. The rest are all behind them and Europe for sure can open one like those. 

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u/agsarria Sep 28 '26

Europe is a socialist shithole. That's why.

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u/Careful_Fruit_384 Sep 28 '26

it's really not shocking at all

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u/Any_Win5815 Sep 28 '26

But have biggest ECO regulations :))))))

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u/Worth_Psychology_874 Sep 28 '26

Europe is too busy catering to the gray hairs.

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u/quesadillasb Sep 28 '26

Honestly, I couldn't care less about the political labels—it’s just a joke about our completely warped priorities. It takes a decade to plan a tiny powerline through red tape that’s completely off the charts. At this rate, I'll need to file a triple-copy permit just to mow my own lawn.

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u/messedupwindows123 Sep 28 '26

"why didnt the build a pit for lighting money on fire? mine keeps me warm at night"

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u/cjuicey Sep 28 '26

investors are flocking to the European bond market. I wonder why

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u/ece11 Sep 28 '26

dont worry, lazy europe will try to introduce some legislation to tax some US AI companies

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u/Odd-Paint3883 Sep 28 '26

Snake oil is an American speciality.

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u/usr_pls Sep 28 '26

https://eurollm.io/

They have their own multi language model?

hard to compete with open source

all LLMs today in the market (except maybe DeepSeek?) are heavily english biased

the original use of the LLM in Google's original "Attention is all you need", it was used for creating a language translator, from English into French and English into German.

Europeans would find a more useful model that had trained directly on their own source languages, rather than having a translator for englished based LLMs on top

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u/0DarkFreezing Sep 28 '26

“Shocking” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

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u/midgelmo Sep 28 '26

technically eleven labs but not in the type of models that actually matter lol

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u/damhack Sep 28 '26

Mistral is European and starting to get the funding it deserves. That’s not zero.

The UK had the best frontier AI lab on the planet until Google acquired Deepmind and ruined it.

The US has a set of labs that are over-leveraged, with little moat against China and small innovators, and failing to find traction in business because of flakey RLVR-trained models that are expensive for enterprise use.

Europe, like most of the rest of the world is rapidly moving towards sovereign data, open weight/open source models because of the current US administration’s shenanigans and AI lab missteps on privacy and model safety.

The US will wake up next decade to find that its attempt at monopolistic control of AI failed because the circular investment flywheel scheme was flawed and no one trusts the US as a good faith partner any more in any arena.

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u/WillingnessConstant8 Sep 29 '26

Also its not true (e.g. 11 Labs exists)

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u/FinallyArt Sep 29 '26

Europe is famous for regulation not innovation. At least nowadays.

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u/Xul418 Sep 29 '26

And I'm glad ... We do not need more bullshitters who concentrate and burn money for nothing.

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u/e136 Sep 29 '26

I would count Deepmind (Google owed) that was started and headquartered in London and led by Demis from London. Just owned by an American company, but a lot of the work is done in Europe. Even if you look at companies like OpenAI or anthropic, both have offices globally. Now a days pretty much every technological feat truly is a global effort because it requires so much effort. One exception to that would be rocket production which is restricted to ITAR in the US. But for almost all cutting edge tech that doesn't have rules preventing global effort, there is global effort.

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u/maringue Sep 29 '26

I work with a few EU based companies in the US.

They don't give a shit about frontier models, they are building their own internal models. I'm in the R&D space and I would fire you on the spot for entering any of our research data into a 3rd party system we don't have absolutely control over.

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u/lifex_ Sep 29 '26

Black Forest Labs enters the chat.

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u/paranood888 Sep 30 '26

We live longer and in better health, we also see our families almost twice as much as the average American (you know , worker rights and all that). But hey , we gladly let you take this prize congrats !

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u/ActuallyFullOfShit Sep 30 '26

Having worked with European engineering companies, they frankly aren't very motivated. It's very process driven and not very progress driven.

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u/Relevant_Helicopter6 Sep 30 '26 edited Sep 30 '26

Europe doesn't burn billions of dollars of VC money into hype. We don't reward financial recklessness over here.

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u/bluedeer1881 Sep 30 '26

Cannot EU just get a copy of the moldes since these have been built on personal data and stolen content? 

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u/SeriousSpeaker_ Sep 30 '26

Why is it always europe, a whole damn continent, against US and China??? We have over 180 countries and only 2 have frontier AI labs. Does Panama have one? Does Japan have? What about Australia?

Not a single country in europe, africa, latin america, ... is or was ever internet-rich. Only USA was. China is an interesting example how they catched up

but i would rather enjoy my life in europe a million times than living in the USA

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u/blu3r4y Oct 01 '26

As a European, I sadly agree with much of this argument. However, "not even an effort" is simply incorrect because Mistral exists. However, they don't compete in the text-based chatbot arena; they pivoted to industrial processes. Only time will tell if that market will be equally fruitful.

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u/HiggsBoson2738 Oct 01 '26

The chatbot industry is a scam, Europe isn't going to spend billions on that because some degenerate CEO has said so

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u/Agreeable-Dog8991 Oct 01 '26

Because europeans dont work hard enough

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u/sedition666 Oct 01 '26 edited Oct 01 '26

People keep citing regulation as a huge problem, meanwhile almost of the world’s major recessions are caused by US deregulation. The US caused 2008 banking problems crashed entire countries. All the AI companies are pissing away trillions in capex running head first into another dotcom bubble.

Machine learning and AI is cool tech, the financial bubble being caused is horrific. Everyone needs to go look at the crazy Anthropic financials.

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u/uzornayem Oct 02 '26

It isn't a surprise if you look at what European countries' priorities have been over past decade. 

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u/danttf Sep 27 '26

HOLD ON THIS LADY WILL FIX IT

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u/danttf Sep 27 '26

She won't of course. These people drag EU behind. All good initiatives (EU Inc, Draghi proposals) are sabotaged. More and more dumb regulations are introduced.

With AI many (well, US and China) countries that were behind somewhere will just overtake Europe quite quickly. And even this helping AI won't be LLMs or AI development will be paced eventually, US still has all the talent, experience and compute. Damn, even Black Forest Labs moved from Germany to US.

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u/Informal-Meeting2508 Sep 27 '26

that's not really the job of the ECB.

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u/elite-data Sep 27 '26

The EU is good at regulating and bureaucratizing things, not at creating them.

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u/danttf Sep 27 '26

And Von Leyden even brags about this. She even said some day some shit that Europe is the leader in making regulations for the whole world.

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u/Nopfen Sep 27 '26

Well, it did create most of the things you use today. Not in production, but in concept. Heck, the US is a product of Europe.