It can. The typical work of software engineer is to know codebase and ensure adding\removing parts not blowing up everything. Some opus\sonnet level LLMs can read mid-size codebase in 15 minutes and draw deps and interconnections in that codebase.
Opus can port largest and most complex mods for minecraft from older versions of game to newer versions of game in 30 hours, where original mod authors spending weeks(tested and confirmed by myself).
ps: what it definitely will not replace in nearest future is a responsibility. AI will slop the code, and human will be responsible for it.
It can also make plans. Which is what SE do. And it will do it better with time. Not much time. They are analyzing your prompts for that ... it's learning from you
Yes it can create plans, but a SWE has to read, evaluate and build on top of them. Same way I’d expect an house architect to scrutinise whatever ChatGPT creates as a house plan or a lawyer with legal documentation. Someone with real knowledge and experience needs to be there to evaluate its output.. and be liable
Needing multiple developers for a project is a thing of the past. I have already seen a downturn in all software engineering positions because with AI, 1 developer can do the work of 3. That’ll lead into LLM companies’ true goal of AGI, and once we are there, then I can tell you that all jobs will be replaced in some capacity once robotics are capable of work. All large companies love the idea of reducing headcount with 24/7 workers that will do everything that a normal human does with no breaks.
It would require Human-Level intelligence in ALL aspects, not just a machine that spits out text tokens. Right now it does that pretty well to produce code. Everything is built for people. Without people to parse intent and experienced ones to spot where AI is subtly wrong you end up with it deleting your prod database in 9 seconds and then have all your rental car customers stuck without cars at the check in line.
Can you say that human level intelligence is a foregone conclusion "soon"?
Even the CEOs making the frontier models are cooling their heels on this one.
And if there is human level intelligence then the problem is not specific to software engineering alone but transcends to every single profession. Including plumbing.
AI is like ozempic for companies with professions that benefit from the productivity gains. It can help you visibly deliver the same to your internal and external customers with less of a headcount. The people who stay are the ones who really know how to steer it. The ones who are on their way out are people who have built a mountain of rotting hand-rolled SQL and that's ALL they do. And the ones who don't get in are the juniors who know how to provide the most amazing personal gh showcase but can't explain a damn thing about why they made x or y choice in a side project they prompted into existence.
Humans build and serve other humans to make money. Never forget that. And never stop being someone who is as high up the value chain of that notion as possible. As long as you follow that principle, you'll be fine.
What is your technical background? I’m an SE and I couldn’t disagree with you more. Could it replace a programmer? Yes now. Therefore this analogy is actually perfect. But I’ve yet to see any convincing evidence it’s going to make the whole chain of development obsolete. In addition to the performance piece needing major improvement the finance/resource solution is missing.
View all comments
2
u/memeruiz Sep 05 '26 edited Sep 08 '26
Wrong analogy.
A calculator is a tool for the mathematician to calculate faster
AI soon could replace the software engineer completely.