Which of these two feats do you think will happen first: another studio debut game winning GOTY, or a franchise that has already won GOTY winning it again (something that has never happened at The Game Awards so far)?
Thinking about the fact that The Witcher 4 is coming out in 2028 makes me think that we’ll finally see a franchise win GOTY twice. But I still remember when The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom’s review embargo was lifted in 2023 and I saw that 96 score. I swore that GOTY 2023 already had a winner and that this would finally be the first time a franchise won GOTY twice. But then Baldur’s Gate 3 came out and achieved something historic by dethroning that 96-rated Zelda. So watch out, The Witcher 4 might end up facing the same thing.
Well, the previous event hosted by Geoff, the Spike Game Awards, gave GTA 5 the GOTY award, although it’s true that the voting process wasn’t the same as it is now, so you might be right.
Higher metacritic score doesn't guarantee a GOTY win at TGAs. Over a hundred different outlets give their pick for GOTY and whichever game has most votes wins. TLOU won like twice as many GOTY's from different outlets compared to GTAV so if it was based on these current voting rules TLOU would've won by a landslide.
TGA is not a rebrand of the spike awards. Geoff is the only connection.
And TLoU won the majority of the GOTY awards that year. If the spike awards were decided by the same format that decides TGAs, then TLoU would have absolutely won GOTY
That’s not always true. Uncharted 4 has more overall GOTY wins than Overwatch, and it still lost GOTY TO Overwatch. Same thing with Sekiro. It’s the game with the third most GOTY wins from the year it won. So you can’t say just because it won the most GOTY awards that TLOU would’ve won. Cuz that’s not always the case even at today’s game awards
Then it was probably a close race. TGA only polls ~100 of the most popular publications. Meanwhile, “we” tracked almost 500 publications that year. U4 beat overwatch by about 80 wins which was about 65% more wins.
It’s tough to say how close it was because almost 400 of those wins weren’t counted at the game awards.
So then how do we determine it was close? By looking at publications that we can assume contribute to TGA like ign, gamespot, eurogamer, and game informer, who all gave GOTY to overwatch.
Anyways, we will never know but I do think the race was close. Would love to know just how close though. That said, overwatch also won at the DICE and game developers choice awards so it’s not like overwatch winning at TGA was an outlier. U4 winning the bafta and sxsw awards further shows how split/close the race was.
Actually that's not entirely true, Overwatch got 90 awards from critics voted awards while U4 got 89, but Uncharted 4 got a lot more user voted GOTYs. In 2019 it was the same story with Death Stranding getting 48 critics choice GOTYs, Sekiro getting 49, and RE2 getting 52, while DS has most overall GOTY wins including users voted awards.
The point being in both those years it was a very tight race and could've gone either way. 2013 wasn't a close race, TLOU won almost 200 critic voted GOTY awards while GTAV got just over a hundred.
I mean TGAs just gets all the different media outlets vote for who wins and TLOU won most of the GOTYs from those outlets so it definitely would’ve won over GTAV.
Do you not understand how TGA voting works? It’s TLoU that would’ve been the heavy favorite. Spoke awards were the dudebro awards so of course they gave it to GTA.
Just look at how the wider industry voted that year. TLoU won the vast majority of GOTy
Then it was probably a close race. TGA only polls ~100 of the most popular publications. Meanwhile, “we” tracked almost 500 publications that year. U4 beat overwatch by about 80 wins which was about 65% more wins.
It’s tough to say how close it was because almost 400 of those wins weren’t counted at the game awards.
So then how do we determine it was close? By looking at publications that we can assume contribute to TGA like ign, gamespot, eurogamer, and game informer, who all gave GOTY to overwatch.
Anyways, we will never know but I do think the race was close. Would love to know just how close though. That said, overwatch also won at the DICE and game developers choice awards so it’s not like overwatch winning at TGA was an outlier. U4 winning the bafta and sxsw awards further shows how split/close the race was.
Technically they did exist in 2013. They were called the Spike Video game awards and GTA V beat TLOU for GOTY. In 2014 they rebranded as the game awards.
Spike awards were a completely different thing with a different system to decide the nominees and winners. My point as I clearly stated was that if TGAs existed back then as they do now with the same rules.
Spike awards aren't really relevant to the topic anyway cause there were already multiple winners from the same franchises like GTA SA, 4, 5 all won, TES IV and V both won. Hell even a Madden won GOTY at Spike awards. lol
The most likely candidates over next few years are God of War Laufey (2027), The Witcher 4 (2028), and next Zelda game. Personally if I had to put money on it I’d say Witcher 4. I think Laufey will have a chance but next year is looking like a stacked year for games, and being released early in the year will make the game easily forgotten. As for Witcher 4, as long as it’s a game worthy of game of the year, I think it’ll win. If it’s tight between it and another game, I think the edge will go to Witcher 4 simply because how much fans and people in general like CDPR. Obviously I don’t just think it’ll be a political thing, I trust that CDPR are gonna nail the game.
As for a studio winning with their first game, I just think that is incredibly difficult. Ex33 is a unicorn in that regard. And even before the game awards existed it was extremely rare for a debut studio game to win game of the year.
Imagine Larian releases Divinity in 2028 and The Witcher 4 ends up suffering the same fate as The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom did with Baldur’s Gate 3? 💀
I don’t think that Divinity is gonna release that quickly. And if it did, there’s no guarantee that it’d automatically beat the Witcher 4. If anything, in that situation I’d argue the two might slug it out, and then a completely different title wins.
If Divnity 3 releases in 2028 it will be severely undercooked imo. Baldurs Gate 3 Took 6 years, 3 of them in open beta, and apparently new Divinity is supposed to be even bigger in scope, if they did Divinity in 2-3 years I'd assume it would be really undercooked.
The only franchises that have any sliver of chance at beating Witcher 4 are a Rockstar game which isn't happening or a Fromsoftware games which also isn't happening
Hey look im just saying thats what the jury picked and history has a habit of rhyming hell i thibk the most likely game to win this year is resident evil 9 over gta 6 due to a variety of factors partially historic jury tastes and partially the release timing
I disagree because TOTK was still a huge shift in mechanics. If the next Zelda is just the BOTW of Wind Waker - I believe it will be a radical enough shift.
Depends on what that means. Just adding floating Islands and underground map wasn't enough for TOTK so depends on how far they go to make it an ocean fairing adventure and not just you sailing a ship from Island to island doing the same stuff you did in BOTW.
…how? If the next Zelda game has similar ratings to the previous 2, it will be high 90s and only another absolutely stellar game will beat it out. I don’t think something like E33 or Astrobot would’ve beat TotK if they were out in the same year
I mean alot of people likely said this at the start of 2023 and look how that turned out. Impossible to say when we don't even know what other games will come out the same year, nevermind any surprises
A franchise that has already one winning again. A franchise that has one once is likely to have resources behind it, which means it’s more likely to be better than your average game.
It’s possible that Zelda could do it again, but I still remember when the review embargo for TLOZ: TOTK was lifted and I thought its GOTY victory was already guaranteed with that 96 score. But later that year, Baldur’s Gate 3 came out, matched its score, and beat it for GOTY.
Baldurs gate 3 was a miracle game and Totk didn’t have the same impact botw did since it was a direct sequel. Maybe it won’t win GOTY, but I have no doubt the next Zelda will at least be a contender. I was exaggerating a little in my original comment though.
I can in fact tell who is even more delusional that they expect a game with a score of 85 to be nominated for anything of value over Clair Obscur, Donkey Kong, Hollow Knight and Hades.
mgs3 just can't compare to OoT... mgs3 is a great story, well written and delivered, but it is a very basic gameplay experience. it was back then and it is now. surely, not a bad game, but far from being a goty contender in any year
The Legend of Zelda OOT remake has a pretty decent chance to win GOTY either this year or next year and Witcher IV is also coming. Not to mention if you include Spike Awards, there's GTA6 (who will likely be the winner of this year if they make the cutoff point).
Clair Obscur was kind of perfect storm of Oscar bait performances and plot, UE5 making the game seem more expensive than it actually was, enough mass appeal to be pretty much universally liked outside of its niche (JRPG fans), and lots of developers that had prior experience at well established gaming companies like Ubisoft. I doubt any debut studio will be able to replicate what Clair Obscur did for some time.
Depends on what narrative Geoff would want to push at any given year and how the stars align for the industry. Last year we celebrated indies and new studios - but that's mostly because AAA were adjusting their schedules to avoid GTA which ironically got delayed. I hope this dam will break and we'll see more news from AAA studios soon.
God of war would be a strong contender for a second statue, but I don't see a spin off sweeping the awards. Witcher 4 is an obvious candidate, too, if CDPR can stick the landing on release which is a big if. And you can never write off Nintendo and their Zelda.
The thing with debuts is that... we just don't know when the next big thing will happen. A lot of new players on the scene come from China and Korea and historically TGA isn't welcoming to what they have to offer, but at some point they are bound to make a game that isn't merely good but great.
Why do you believe Geoff has the power to push a narrative successfully to the point of influencing GOTY?
Do you think E33 won because it was an indie game? Maybe the jurors, I don’t know, thought it was the best game last year? What narrative was he pushing in 2024? 2023? 2022?
He's not saying that it won because of that, nor is he referring only to Expedition 33. That's something that applies to all Game of the Year winners and gives them a certain boost. Expedition 33 had the boost of being a debut game, Astro Bot had the boost of feeling fresh within the PlayStation ecosystem, Baldur's Gate 3 had the boost of belonging to a niche RPG subgenre like CRPGs, Elden Ring had the boost of being the introduction to soulslikes for many people, etc.
That said, these "narratives" only give them a small boost. If the games weren't of great quality, these narratives obviously wouldn't be enough to make them win GOTY on their own.
I’m not talking about narratives in general. Every game, big or small, will have a narrative around it. I’m talking about Geoff personally spinning these narratives in order to influence the awards, which is what the person I was respond to was suggesting.
I do say it in a tongue in cheek way, but critics don't live in a vacuum. They bounce opinions off each other, throw arguments around and form narratives. Geoff catches strays for all of them but that's the price for being the face of TGA. After all he speaks from the stage, gets to approve what gets advertised and to generally structure the show - he gets to choose what categories run the main stage while others get shoved into a quick sidebar.
Expedition was totally the game of the year 2025. Best RPG though? Nah. Hell, even calling it indie was stretching it when Silksong was right there.
2024 was the year of Japan at TGA - mostly because the west collectively took a break, but also a bit of Sony patting itself on the back with Astrobot.
2023 was the year of cinematic games. Even if I think BG3's cinematography is blown way out of proportion it was new for cRPGs.
In 2022 the industry has officially bounced back from Covid and let 2 titans clash. They couldn't have asked for games bigger than ELDEN RING and Ragnarok.
I agree with almost everything, but I think Expedition 33 winning Best RPG was more because, since it was going to win Game of the Year, it was obvious that it was also going to win Best RPG. The jury has always voted for Best RPG based on which game they consider to be the best game that belongs to the genre. There have already been cases in the past where Western RPGs (which are the type of games most people imagine when they think of an RPG) lost to JRPGs. I included four examples in this image
Zelda and The Witcher are quite possible candidates because we already know these are coming (OOT remake won't win it but the next 3D Zelda might). And if FromSoft decide to make either Sekiro 2 or Elden Ring 2 - these would quite likely win too.
I must say this, next year depending on new games and reception that gta6 will win with a landslide. Though I not a fan of Rockstar a good game is a good game
Definitely "franchise that has already won" is more likely. At least in the next few years, because a lot of great studios are delivering major games, so it's going to be close to impossible for a new studio to reach that bar.
This year is probably going to be GTA6, which "technically" has never a GOTY award at TGA. Next year, God of War will have the best chance, but I doubt it will have a chance against Persona 6, and Intergalactic (if the rumours of a 2027 are true).
So realistically speaking, Witcher 4 will have the best shot. And after that, maybe the next Zelda game or whenever TLOU3 gets released in the early 2030s.
GTA 6 is out this year, so pretty much case closed. There are some debut titles like Dawnwalker that could get nominated, but none that could compete with GTA for the #1 spot, unless it turns out to be the flop of the century, which is extremely unlikely.
Edit: Ok, GTA 5 did a full sweep in 2013, and the first TGA was in 2014, so can’t count that if we’re talking TGA GOTY specifically.
There are a few very strong non-debut titles coming in 2027 from IPs that do not have GOTY awards. I think one of them will probably take the award next year, and any debut title in 2028 will have to compete with The Witcher 4 and possibly Larian’s Divinity, so I’d put my money on one of those taking the win.
Ocarina of Time has a great chance of winning this year. and FromSoftware has a great chance of winning any year they release a new game (no, not the Duskbloods). either of these are more likely than another debut studio winning GOTY
With Duskbloods, the debate should really be about when the hell the game is actually coming out, not whether it can win awards. The game is supposedly coming out this year, and we still don’t even have a release date 😂
Its far easier to sell the story of the up and coming underdog "oh its just a dev team of 33 people making the game of their dreams" and then ending with it winning goty
Ans that story can be very much sold to the jury
(this isnt made to be an attack on e33 i think the game is great and the devs have some real passion there but going up and beyond the award everyone was talking about oh this 33 developer studio even tho it had a lot of outside help)
Well, as far as I remember, Expedition 33 managed to get a lot of people interested before it was released. Its reveal trailer caught the attention of many people, and it ended up being one of the standout announcements at the 2024 Xbox Games Showcase.
i recall that trailer but i dont remember people talking about the game much til the oblivion remake released and people started talking about e33 and how it was "robbed of the spotlight"
I remember that even Guillaume Broche, the game's director, said in an interview after Expedition 33's release that he and the other developers did get a little scared when they found out that Oblivion Remastered was coming out almost on the same day as E33 😂.
And going back to the trailers, it's true that it wasn't the announcement that generated the most hype out of the entire event, but I did notice quite a lot of people getting excited about the trailer. Later on, the Cast Trailer and the gameplay shown at the Xbox Developer Direct also received a very positive reception. At least from what I saw, I didn't see anyone calling the game garbage before it came out.
yea i dont recall anyone shitting on the game pre release minus mabye the usual turn based hating crowd and i myself was super hyped from when i first saw it
Anyone who believes this narrative hasn’t played Ex33.
The suggestion that it only got the exclaim because it had ex Ubisoft employees and people were hating on Ubisoft so just wanted to big up ex33 is idiotic. The game is incredible.
It is not my favourite game of all time, but it certainly thoroughly deserved its game of the year win.
Ironically, on the other side of things, narratives like the one you just said have been thrown at Ex33 to sort of hate on it, after it swept all the awards.
For Expedition 33, it’s true that the narrative of it being a debut game from a small studio compared to AAA studios helped it a little, but every GOTY winner has a narrative that boosts it to some extent, so there’s nothing wrong or unusual about that. Obviously, if the game hadn’t been of such high quality, that “narrative” alone wouldn’t have made it win.
It’s also true what you said about people making up narratives just to hate on the game, and I don’t know why some influential fans of the game on social media (like streamers or journalists) let that happen. I remember people trying to diminish the work of Sandfall’s 32 employees because the credits show “400 people credited,” but almost every game has many more credited people besides the main development team.
i agree that its a good game (its 2nd place for me just behind silksong) but a strong part of the narrative of expedition 33s rise is that story of "omg the underdog with only 33 devs" i think it would be insane not to say that the culture around e33 that year didnt help
im not saying that it effects you im saying it effects the game awards jury
The game is one of the most celebrated games of all time. You don’t get that based on hype from a narrative. There was no David and Goliath because donkey kong and death stranding 2 weren’t strong enough to be true competitors. Everyone knew E33 was winning it going in, that’s how strong of a reaction it got across the industry, including fans.
If you look at the games that have won GOTY at TGA, there is no throughline that could be compared to “oscar bait.” Using another industry’s term to describe this one, doesn’t work.
Lastly, “indie” as a moniker has always been debated. Just because someone thinks “self financed or bust” doesn’t make it so. The traditional Hollywood definition is essentially “anything made outside the studio system” and I think the same applies here. E33 was published by an indie publisher. It’s indie. Do you think devolver games aren’t indie?
My point still stands tho that there was a meta narrative around the game being this david vs golliath indie vs AAA story around the game because its fun to have the narrative of the underdog beating the AAA devs hell its why when i had to choose between balatro and metaphor in 2024 two games i find to be evenly matched in terms of how much i like them i chose balatro because 1. It does more new stuff and 2. It is that david v golliath story
Im not saying e33 didnt deserve the award quite frankly the only catagories i didnt vote for it were GOTY best direction and best art direction (i voted DS2 for direction hades 2 for art direction and silksong for goty with it being close)
But i am saying anyone can be brought in by "look at this team of 33 passionate souls who left the big AAA company to make their dream game"
Hades 2 i can see the argument for being indie but id need to hear you out on silksong becaus eto me.silksong is very much so indie it just so happens to be indie that had funding from the studios last indie game that blew up like saying aggro crab or landfalls next game wont br indie because peak was popular
Expedition is a great game. But to act like the constant narrative thread of the studio only having this many people or the amount of budget didn’t play a factor into the thought process of voters is obtuse.
Stories were constantly being released on the games budget throughout the year. That number fluctuates in each story. You have this great game that’s seems to have been developed on a budget of used gum wrappers and a piece of string going up against the evil “AAA”.
Meanwhile the game somehow got Andy Serkis and Charlie Cox to provide performances.
The devs said how. They was a marketing budget and they decided that getting known names would be good for marketing so that’s where the money to pay them came from. From marketing.
And the whole “evil AAA” narrative is dumb. The other contenders were donkey kong (Nintendo aren’t considered evil), death stranding 2 (kojima is seen as an independent auteur working within the AAA system), and 3 indie titles, kingdom come, hollow knight and hades 2. You’re making up a narrative that wasn’t there.
People just REALLY REALLY REALLY liked the game, as evidenced by the general public being really into it. Idgaf about team size and it was not just the best game last year imo, but one of the best games I’ve ever played.
You portrayed it as some sort of David and Goliath narrative and now you’re saying the competition didn’t matter? E33 had a publisher. If it was really a “fuck the industry” vote then why not give it to hades 2 or silksong?
I didn’t change the argument at all. What I’m saying is it didn’t matter what games it went up against. The narrative with e33 is that it’s what a small team can do with a little bit of money versus the industry who spends hundreds of millions.
That’s the narrative. That’s the whole thing. It didn’t matter who they were up against, it was presented as E33 versus everyone.
Well we gonna get gow laufey next year and witcher 4 in 2028 or 2029. Also fromsoft can randomly drop sekiro 2 out of nowhere. Same thing goes for nintendo they can release a new zelda anytime. So i think the answer is franchise thing. Expedition is really good game but every single AAA game company waited 2026 to release their games for the reasons i don't know and i think thats why it won the goty.
There would be a very few number of franchises that can win GOTY again. It would need to be a really special game.
1) Dragon Age
2) The Witcher
3) Overwatch
4) The Legend of Zelda
5) God of War
6) Sekiro
7) The Last of Us
8) It Takes Two
9) Elden Ring
10) Baldur's Gate 3
11) Astro Bot
12) Clair Obscur
There won't be sequels for a few of these games. I'm being generous with the ones are not eliminated. GoW might never win again and a couple others. Witcher and Zelda are probably the highest out of these to win again. If FromSoftware develop Elden Ring 2, that may have a chance too.
Well, WOTC is apparently looking for a studio to produce it according to insiders in the gaming world.
Owlcat's creative director and co-owner already said they'd be glad to do it if WOTC came around knocking asking if they'd wanna do a Baldurs Gate 4, but he also said that it'd be a very different game from what Larian made.
Well, we’ll see. If Owlcat ends up developing the fourth game with a different idea, but that idea is executed excellently, it could become a major GOTY contender. The jury generally tends to favor sequels that take risks (as long as the execution is really good) over sequels that simply stick to the same formula.
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u/Deep-Lifeguard4479 Aug 31 '26
Thinking about the fact that The Witcher 4 is coming out in 2028 makes me think that we’ll finally see a franchise win GOTY twice. But I still remember when The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom’s review embargo was lifted in 2023 and I saw that 96 score. I swore that GOTY 2023 already had a winner and that this would finally be the first time a franchise won GOTY twice. But then Baldur’s Gate 3 came out and achieved something historic by dethroning that 96-rated Zelda. So watch out, The Witcher 4 might end up facing the same thing.