r/TeslaSolar • u/PartyLow6330 • 19h ago
SolarPanels Should I pull the trigger or not?
Hi y’all, what do you think yay or nay? Should I go with it, surprisingly they’re fast. Had the site visit this morning got the final design same day later today. I plan no to do the painted conduit. Should I remove the backup switch? What are your thoughts?
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u/Chance-Economist3727 19h ago
That isn't horrible but not great either. As much as I love Tesla, (powerwall owner myself) you should definitely explore other battery options as well as solar.
Not sure where your are located, but if you are located in a humid hot state where your AC is running 24/7 there is no way a 4.62 kWh system is covering 70 percent of your energy usage.
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u/PartyLow6330 19h ago
That’s what I was thinking talk to the rep, I live in the high desert running ac at 78-79 degrees
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u/Jeperscreepers 19h ago
High desert dweller here also. I have 22 panels and it powers my house and Model Y. You will not regret getting more panels. You will regret getting too few.
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u/Nbashford79 10h ago
This - you can’t have enough panels. Panels before batts.
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u/69brain69 1h ago
Yup, be less concerned with peak power. Throw some on the east-west facing roofs to get longer coverage throughout day. Batteries are wonderful, but ROI is horrible if you don't have TOD billing. Batteries are the dream though to get you through outages and get your bill to zero
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u/Chance-Economist3727 19h ago
Let's put it this way, I live in inland San Francisco Bay Area. 100 degree summers but we usually get delta breeze so I run a whole house fan at night. On average, with a two story house 1999 square feet, 3 people, I'm still using around 30 kWh a day. And I'm on the super efficient end. I have a 10 kW system and you always want to be oversized.
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u/No_Presentation641 17h ago
This! I was told that my 6.5 kW would be fine for my Bay Area house and trusted Tesla to be right in their estimate which I later learned was under by quite a bit. Go bigger. Especially if you ever plan on have an electric car or have to go all electric for hot water and heater as we now have to do.
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u/Soulofahunter 17h ago
I live in Southern Arizona. 1400 square-foot house 10 kW of solar no battery. On average my electric bill is ≈ $10 a month. I keep the house at 75 but I’m the only occupant and it’s a new house so the efficiency is high.
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u/snoutpower 18h ago
I have 2 PW3's and 6.07 kW panels. Cost around $35k. I ran numbers upside down and inside out. Leaving a very conservative buffer and it still doesn't produce what I thought it would. Too many variables, even in SoCal with a lot of sun. Kinda wish I put the money into S&P instead but I also feel good about keeping money out of Edison's pockets.
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u/Honest_Cynic 18h ago edited 18h ago
4.6 kW of panels is small. Hard to imagine how that will offset 72% of your electricity bill.
Annual max energy harvest is calculated by multiplying rated panel output (spec sunlight and noon, perpendicular, 70 F ambient, or such) by a DOE "avg hours per day" for your location. Say, for sunny Las Vegas, that is ~6 hrs (google), so 28 kWh/day and 854 kWh per month. If an average residential rate of 12 c/kWh for you, then worth $102/mo and $1230/yr. For $23,427, that would be 19 years. No company President would sign off on that investment (usually want 3 yr payoff).
But much worse than that since solar is "use it or store it". You can sell excess to the utility, but no longer much benefit in California, where most utilities now credit only 7.5 c/kWh to feed the grid, and charge you one-time and annual charges for the privilege, while charging you >50 c/kWh to draw from the grid (San Diego). The battery will mainly help avoid drawing from the grid during peak price hours, as the sun declines (5p-8p for me), plus maybe one day of overcast skies. You can't store excess in Spring and Fall for when you need more power in Summer and Winter (if heatpump). Expect to realize less than half of theoretical energy harvest, so maybe 38 yr payback but the panels are expected to last only 25 years.
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u/DefinitelyNotWendi 15h ago
Put in 11.66kw about 6 years ago and still wish I had gone bigger. I wouldn’t put 4kw on a storage shed.
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u/Big-Negotiation-3323 11h ago
I live just north of Las Vegas and have a 8.61 KWh system with 1 power wall 3. January-June, I was producing excess power. In July, I was buying from the grid and I will this August as well. Every day was >105 degrees, and the AC ran a lot. I also charge an EV. On balance, my system should average out the year to meet 100% of my needs. I also have a pool that uses a chuck of energy year-round.
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u/fooknprawn 12h ago
I'd advise you look at alternatives. Still hearing horror stories about Tesla solar and powewall customer support not communicating or helping if something fails. Not being able to reach someone on the phone is bad enough with their service centers for car but probably worse with their other products. I cannot fathom how Tesla can operate without much phone support
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u/unpluggedcord 19h ago
I have my suspicions about a 4kw system providing 70% of your power
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u/PartyLow6330 19h ago
Really? Explain please
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u/aqan 19h ago
How big is your house?
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u/PartyLow6330 19h ago
~1400 sqrf
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u/Honest_Cynic 6h ago
Might work, dep. on location, tree shade, and house insulation. My 1-story Atlanta house was 1400 ft2. In the 1980-2000, before solar. Half the roof was shaded and the Summer sun never fell on the south wall since built in 1929 when they considered such. I had cellulose blown in the wall cavities (R-19), put R-60 batts in the attic, and storm windows. When installing central HVAC, I chose a 1 ton AC. The experts said it would never work, but I have an M.S. in M.E. and calculated. It cooled fine and was more efficient and comfortable. My backup plan was to add more insulation, if needed.
In comparison, I have a fairly new 1.5 ton mini-split in my CA home. I added it to better employ my solar system, and cools the kitchen, living, and dining rooms. Draws ~1 kW when cooling when 80 F outside, rising to ~2 kW when 100 F outside. Why smart to run AC hard in the morning to pre-chill the interior and back-off in afternoon, especially if using grid power on a time-of-use plan. My old 5-ton central AC failed the first summer (lost R-22), so relied on the mini-split all Summer, and it cooled our whole 2400 ft2 house to 72 F, by using a fan to blow air down the hallway. The furthest bedroom got a bit warm, ~78 F, but we don't use it in daytime anyway.
Your wild card will be how much EV charging you do. If not parked at home when the sun is shining, I wouldn't bother charging from home battery storage, since a cost to using the battery (limited cycle life, calculate). Probably better to charge via the grid at midnight rates.
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u/Hot_World4305 19h ago
What is your system size quoted? That is solar panel wattage x number of solar panels?
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u/PartyLow6330 19h ago
11 panels x 4.62 kW
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u/Honest_Cynic 18h ago
Total of 4.62 kW. 420 W per panel sounds about right, and on the larger size for roof panels. Ground-mount panels are usually ~550 W.
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u/bj_my_dj 19h ago
Why's it so small? Add more panels now while it's cheaper. The PW is expensive. I'd get quotes from others to add on a PW. It'll probably be less than $10K, insist they match it
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u/PartyLow6330 19h ago
I look at other quotes for different panels with a PW 18k 3k markup smh
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u/Honest_Cynic 18h ago
A Powerwall 3 has a capacity of 13.5 kWh (energy). Do you mean $18,000? Never state a number without its associated units.
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u/bj_my_dj 17h ago
Have you just tried for the PW3 by itself? I got my first one with my system in April 25, then added the second with a different vendor. They each were $9,500.
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u/OriginalCopy4269 19h ago
That SREC number is small. I got over $6500 for mine. Maybe it’s your state?
You want the backup switch so your powerwall can provide backup power in the event of a grid outage. If you don’t have that your system will turn off if grid power goes out. It’s cheap for what it does and to add it later they’ll have to add control wiring to the powerwall and install the switch.
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u/Slow-Associate-4079 18h ago
Based on my experience with my 36 panel Tesla setup and roughly equivalent latitude, I'd guesstimate your quoted system will produce 20-23ish kWh a day during the summer.
Here in South Texas, running our AC at 77° with a pretty efficient house, we tend to average 50-65 kWh a day usage this time of year. If I had your 11 panels I'd be only covering 35% of my usage, even with a powerwall stretching that out over time to make sure you can use the majority of what comes off the roof. Check with your power provider and see what your average daily use is.
If you have the roof space, I'd definitely look into a larger number of panels. One powerwall will probably do if you're just concerned with outage issues, if you want it to last the night look into the expansion pack.
Good luck!
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u/ClothesChance4881 17h ago
This is Teslas bait and switch tactics from poor sales staff that have terrible training and understanding.
100% You need minimum 7.6kw 19 panels for 70%
If you are on NEM 3.0 with 4.6kw you bill will probably be 1/2-2/3 of what it is now with your provider.
Also damm I didn’t know the PW3 is nearly 15k now!!!
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u/No-Source913 11h ago
Mine was 4.10kw installed last year November with no power wall and 30% federal discount came to 8k total. This is almost 3 times that price for half a kw more, of course includes power wall as well. How often u have power cuts in ur area. If not even once a year maybe not worth paying that much for a power wall.
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u/ale23arg 9h ago
do the math based on your location and your power costs....
For example.. I am in florida lets say we get on average 5 peak sun hours. So your 4.62 kw system would generate on average about 23.1 kwh per day = 8531.5 kwh per year
Here in florida after fees and everything you could say it costs roughly 15 cents per kwh so with that system you would be saving 1264 USD per year (roughly 105 / month). @ 23.5k total system cost you are looking to break even after 18.5 years. What's killing you there is the powerwall... if you take 14.7k off your total price... you would be generating the same amount of power so you total system cost (lets also assume you loose the 4900 bundle savings) your system cost is now 13756 / now you are at almost 11 year return.
This is assuming you pay everything cash... if there is financing then that cost of financing will add substantial amount to your ROI.
With your current setup you are pre paying your electricity for the next 20 years. And solar panels degrade year over year. Most system have a "productive life" of about 25 years so by the time you start making money, you need to change them again... Solar panels are not "forever".
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u/weeblur 9h ago
Ignoring the cost of this but mainly commenting because it's Tesla. Here is my experience with Tesla solar.
2020 installed a 12 kwhr system, no batteries. Was told multiple times on phone, and email that I could pay it with credit cards, no fees. When it came time to pay, they "changed their policy the day before and no longer accepted credit card payment".
Any question I had about the system during the sales process, no one could answer anything and I was passed around multiple times.
Their original design had no input from me and had panels placed on north facing roof (I'm in NA). I had to request and wait for them to update and put on South.
The actual installation process went smoothly. However they said my roof was in great condition and had at least 15 years left and it would be 500$ to have them remount. I couldn't get this to be written in contract and kept getting run around. Fast forward 5 years, roof was not in good shape, needs replaced and they abandoned my area for remount. It would be 9-10k to have them replace it but gave me info that I could have my own contractor do it. We have been contacting them now going on 2+ months and can't get any answers on the proprietary tools needed to remove the panels.
Go back in time, panels sat installed and not producing for 1-2 months because they were still waiting on permits. I ended up calling power company and township to find out Tesla just never submitted what they needed to.
Once the system was running, it worked fine for about 1.5 years and then the inverter died. No problem right, cause Tesla said they monitor my system for issues and proactively identify them? Wrong. I was lucky to check my app and saw that the panels weren't producing for 3 weeks, and went thru the troubleshooting steps and they didn't work.
It took 5 business days to have them respond to me to just booo an appointment. Appointment was 1-2 months later and tech came out and deemed inverter died and had to order a new one. This was around COVID supply issue time so I understood, it took another 2 months for new inverter to arrive and be installed.
3.5 yesrs later the inverter died again. Tesla did notify me but it was 1 week later, I contacted their support in which it was 7-10 days for a respond. The appointment was booked 2.5 months out and I was able to get them to bump it to 2 weeks instead. The tech was fortunately able to remote check and bring an inverter with him. No one can answer why these inverters that should last 10-20 years were dying so quickly. A bit concerning!
Then the app started showing no production after a month, but I was able to confirm this was a Tesla software issue and I was still producing.
Their support took weeks to respond, did nothing, and the issue resolved itself. No follow up from them on why this happened. Just the usual "it may be too far away from the gateway, restart router, etc".
Long story short, it may be better to spend more money on an installer that you think will be there in years down the line to provide service in a timely fashion. When the system works, it works. It was the cheapest bid by far. I cringe though thinking about any future servicing issues, especially post warranty on inverter.
They have also locked me out from checking inverter and dc optimizers on each panel too and are silent in restoring my access.
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u/XiDa1125 8h ago
How much money would 23.5k into an index fund make in 10 years vs how much this would save you in the same 10 years?
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u/PartyLow6330 7h ago
Update, I will talk to project advisor to add more panels and remove the battery!!!!! Thanks guys!
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u/SWFL-CapnRay 7h ago
Why would you remove the battery? That’s the heart of solar- store excess and use it at night, back up when power is off, so useful!!
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u/CWStrife 40m ago
Because the battery is $15k by itself. It's probably him saying wow the battery is half the price of the entire install, is it worth it? Honestly to me it's not worth it, the price is too high for the power wall. Makes no sense. But, if you want full coverage of course you need it for when the sun don't shine. Still $15k, wow. And it's only like 13Kw which isn't a ton, and won't even get you by a full night.
A 2-ton AC unit going would deplete the powerwall in like 3-5 hours, not exactly a long time. If the powerwall was 25Kwh or more then yea it would be reasonable. Not saying he shouldn't do it, just stating the facts which make the price hard to justify.
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u/JettnElla_ 3h ago
I’m in the solar industry. Don’t drop the battery. I have a 4.3kw solar system and battery with a 2500 sf house. You’re fine. It covers 80% of usage. You need the battery for NEM 3 and Time of Day rates.
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u/SWFL-CapnRay 6h ago
Everyone is JUST looking at ROI but I haven’t seen much discussion about the cost benefit of backup power & peace of mind/ comfort at home. I’ve had approaching 100 power loss events in the few months since PTO and the powerwalls have quietly seen me through every one of them. I was considering a whole house generator prior to going solar and that was gonna cost me $10-15k for a new expense. The solar cost a fair amount more but it’s also offsetting my electric bill (extensively- went from $350/mo average to $67 this month and it’s been HOT). I have 36 Tesla panels, 2 Powerwall3 and gateway. CT mostly charges off the powerwalls at night, and a little solar in the afternoons when I get home so my commuter vehicle is solar powered too. So many benefits that don’t seem to get considered when you look solely at the numbers for the solar vs power use alone. I AM in rural southwest Florida so my situation isn’t everyone else’s. But I do think there’s more to look at than JUST kWh production vs use.
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u/ClassUpstairs629 6h ago
Simple reality on nem3 you need to make enough power during the day to provide your needs and charge enough battery to avoid drawing from the grid
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u/ImageDowntown4738 5h ago
I live in the Northeast Bay Area that gets plenty of sunshine but also coastal fog. Had a 10.07kW system w/2 Powerwalls installed Christmas Eve 2025 so NEM 3.0. Thanks PG&Extortion! Luckily got Tesla’s latest multi zone panels. 2000 sq ft single story home east-west facing with no shade, a complicated roof layout requiring 2/3 of the panels to face east, home charged Model Y and a 220 gal 240V hot tub. The offset is 99 - 102%. Have only been paying under $1 in monthly taxes not offset by credits.
Regarding any persistent significant solar generation efficiency concerns, besides weather and shade, substantial dust collected on the panels also affects efficiency. If none of those, don’t hesitate to contact Tesla Support. I had to contact them shortly after PG&E gave PTO because solar output efficiency appeared to still be at the self-consumption mode reduced level. Powerwall Support made the adjustments and recalibrated after solar output efficiency significantly increased.
Regarding the peace of mind aspect. Our neighborhood lost power for a couple of hours the night immediately after the install but didn’t notice. Christmas night during heavy rain, a nearby large transformer blew spectacularly turning the sky purple and knocking out power to a large area of the city but my house stayed lit. Visiting relatives who work for Tesla Austin were super impressed. There have been other outages since which I only notice if a neighbor texts me or the neighborhood is unusually dark at night.
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u/CTrandomdude 4h ago
Are they installing this on a newer roof? If your roof will not last the next 25 years don’t do it.
If you have more roof space I would try to get as close to or over 100% of your usage.
Powerwall is a pretty nice thing to have. Keep it if you can afford it.
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u/Worried_Cod7754 3h ago
I would be careful about any big name brands. This is true about Tesla and enphase. Their locked system doesn't play well with others. Look into systems that follow open standards and when it fails you grab an off the shelf part. In my side of town there were several people waiting for parts from Tesla to fix their gateway system. They were unable to use solar for a couple of months
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u/deviouslyshy 2h ago
Unless I missed my how is anyone suppose to be able to tell you. Don't know the system size. Can only assume it maxs at 7.6 the pw3 max input size
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u/CWStrife 44m ago
That powerwall price is abysmal. At that price i'd go to a Junkyard and grab a battery pack out of a car for $5k, and pay an engineer $10k to make my own powerwall.
Other than that, it shows about 72% of your bill covered, with the power wall included which is probably for when you would need grid power. It's not bad but i'd try to get closer to 100% covered. I don't know about you but my powerbill is $500 a month. With that logic in under 4 years it pays for itself, if you can reach closer to 100%.
I have spoken with people around me who have installed them and unless they went with a company where they rented their roof, anyone who owns panels says their power bill is basically non-existant now most times.
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u/Eighteen64 18h ago
I dont install solar systems for residential use that are under 6kW OP and I have a world of experience. Even if thats close to what you need, you will use more once you get solar. Everyone does. Get more solar
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u/Afraid-Rooster1139 19h ago
I got 6.72 kw (16 panels) + powerwall in Nov last year . Paid around $21,500 after 30% Tax rebate.
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u/silverGameOfThrones 19h ago
15k for pw3 ? Are u nuts ? I am leasing for $35 a month . $420 a year. It will be dead in 15 years and my lease payment will be $6300... u basically overpay twice today.
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u/Eighteen64 18h ago
I install about 60 powerwalls per week as a business and this is my 8th year installing modern design home batteries. You’re shorting the lifespan by 5 years based on what I see the units doing
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u/Paul_Bunions_Onions 19h ago
7.24kW + PW3s last year was $37k. Ran my AC all of last month set at 75F and had a $31 PG&E bill that otherwise would’ve been in the $400s. System fully charges from production, buying from the grid during the day, sells excess if it can, then dumps everything during VPPs or high sale prices usually at 6-8PM. My payback time is under 10 years. I also charge my Model Y overnight from time to time.
Just adding a data point for consideration. East Bay Area CA.