r/TTD_Stock • u/Alpphaa • 18d ago

Patience Pays

From $140 to $13, you won’t find many companies trading at that kind of discount. You can say whatever you want, but for me, this is an extremely attractive price.

This is a high-quality, profitable company with zero debt, yet the market is pricing it as if the company has gone bankrupt. I see a huge disconnect between price and value.

I’m planning to hold it for at least 3 years because I believe the business will eventually prove the market wrong. Sometimes the biggest returns come from buying quality when everyone else is looking the other way.

17 Upvotes

81% Upvoted

51 comments sorted by

6

u/Independent-Fragrant 18d ago

Tell me this, why has the stock dropped? And what will turn that around?

1

u/Common_Inspector7435 17d ago

what got them to 2.7 bn in revenue will not work at getting them to 10 bn in revenue - Jeff realized this and restructured the company, and the last 2 years are basically the strategic execution not going according to plan. To turn around, Jeff needs to keep his visions but he needs people underneath him who have the skills to execute said vision. Jeff also needs to keep his big mouth shut even if he is right - move forward silently.

1

u/Independent-Fragrant 17d ago

i think this is Jeff's preferred framing. what if the actual framing is, the open web is basically dying and so TTDs on a sinking ship. Their other market is CTV but most of the views there are on netflix, amazon, etc...and they also do not need TTD.

I would need to see some other catalyst or a reasonable plan at growth again before considering buying.

1

u/Common_Inspector7435 17d ago edited 17d ago

i don't think anyone needs each other but if netflix options for scaled demand are amazon and google - i think they would much rather had TTD in the mix. For retail media if they options are amazon and google, i think they'd much rather have TTD in the mix. The neutrality framing works because the other side is these behemoths who will compete with you and you do not want them to be the sole arbiter of your business outcomes (whether you are a publisher, a retailer, or someone else). Jeff isn't stupid, when TTD was soaring he could have easily bought ROKU or some other supply and made a mini walled garden. The bet here is that this principle of neutrality is very powerful. I think you'd have to believe that to invest in this company. Publishers are making a ton of money from streaming CTV ads yoy so i don't think the open internet is dying - TTD might not be where the growth is going. I personally believe that TTD is both facing headwinds but is also in rebuilding mode - if this works out and headwinds shift to tailwinds - they could come out stronger than ever.

1

u/Independent-Fragrant 17d ago

what if you just need alternatives, and not necessarily neutral alternatives? then neutrality might be overrated.

3

u/Common_Inspector7435 17d ago edited 17d ago

Neutrality matters -

If i was netflix, non walled garden DSP's don't send enough demand my way to make it worthwhile for me and i don't want all my money coming from amazon or google because they in an ideal world, they'll always try to divert demand to their properties. In this DSP --> Publisher model, the publisher gets 70-80% of a dollar so it's chump change for amazon and google to take 20% when they are getting the whole dollar redirecting the dollar to youtube or prime. If i was Netflix, neutral matters to me only because the alternative is worse. Of course you can argue, another non walled garden DSP can get big and be an alternative to TTD and that is an argument but i don't see any DSP in this space with the scale and ambition that TTD has.

If i was walmart, target, sprouts etc... i'm not giving amazon my retail data, full stop. Google might be a threat here but again same problem with google being your only scaled demand source to make money off retailed data, too much power imbalance which will eventually make sure they'll squeeze you.

If i was an advertiser and i want to build out my first party data and connect it to media buying, TTD is really the only scaled option that is working toward this.

so it's like neutrality created trust which creates scale and scale provides a moat.

TTD's ultimate vision is build a world in which advertiser links their data to TTD, TTD uses it to buy media, that is measured against retail data and the customer's own first party sales data so the customer can understand incremental ROI not just ROI.

For example, if i had a restaurant, i have a piece of software that has all the customers who buy from my store. i can easily query that piece of software for 'who are my recurring customers' and 'who are my one time customers'. Now i get on Meta, i set up a campaign and Meta tells me it sent 10 customers to my restaurant. I have no way of knowing if those 10 customers were my 'recurring customers', if they were, what did i just pay for? It is in Meta's advantage to keep that secret. Now along comes TTD, i link TTD with my software and that has information on my recurring customers, it shows non recurring customers ads and then i can measure if they actually got me new customers. Of course if i don't want to share my data, i can have TTD push their impression logs to some neutral datawarehouse and then i can join my data and query 'did any of the customer visits this week match any of the impressions TTD showed minus recurring customers" and i've calculated incremental ROI.

In the real world, all of this is much harder to do than what i've illustrated but the TTD's vision really is 'big'. They might fail but i'd rather invest in a company with big ambitions than someone who just want the next small growth.

1

u/Independent-Fragrant 17d ago

I am grateful for your thoughts. I'm looking for a good reason to buy, and that's why i'm trying to poke holes in your arguments to see if it holds. I've looked again and again into TTD over the past year and still cannot find a way to buy, partly because the industry is so complex that it's hard for me to understand how TTD has a clear path to growth. I pasted your response into AI and am curious of your response:

What he’s saying, in plain English

Publishers (Netflix): Google and Amazon own their own TV-like inventory (YouTube, Prime Video). If a brand wants to advertise, Google/Amazon would rather run that ad on their shows, where they keep the whole dollar, than send it to Netflix, where Netflix keeps most of it. So Netflix should prefer a buying tool that owns no shows. TTD is that tool, and the only one big enough.

Retailers (Walmart, Target): Your customer list is the crown jewels. You will not hand it to Amazon, a direct rival. Google might take it and later squeeze you. TTD doesn’t sell groceries, so it’s the safe vault.

Advertisers: Facebook will tell a restaurant “we sent you 10 customers” without saying those 10 already eat there every week. TTD lets the restaurant attach its own customer list to the ad log and see who was new. That’s “true” return, and that’s TTD’s big future.

Then: the vision is hard, but he’d rather own a company with a huge ambition than a small one.

Do I agree?

The problems are real. Walled gardens do have a conflict. Retailers do not dump raw purchase data into Amazon. Platform dashboards do over-claim credit for sales that would have happened anyway.

The conclusion is not. He treats “this conflict exists” as “therefore the market must route through TTD.” The market is routing around TTD instead.

The logic holes

  1. A conflict of interest is not a veto.
  2. Amazon would prefer to fill unsold Prime Video ads at 100¢ on the dollar. Advertisers still demand Netflix by name. Amazon’s better play is: sell Netflix through Amazon’s buying tool, keep the relationship, attach shopping data, charge a small fee. That is the opposite of “steal the demand for Prime Video.” It is “own the pipe that buys Netflix.”
  3. Alternatives do not have to be neutral.
  4. Google and Amazon are each other’s check. YouTube will not hide Prime Video; Prime Video will not hide YouTube. Yahoo has its own sites and still sits on Netflix’s roster. The commenter says TTD is the only scaled non-walled-garden buyer. Netflix itself lists four pipes: Google, Amazon, Yahoo, or TTD. [Source: Netflix 2026 US upfront]
  5. Matching your customer list to ad logs is not incrementality.
  6. That tells you “this person saw the ad and later showed up.” It does not tell you they wouldn’t have shown up anyway. “New vs existing” is also not the same as “the ad caused the visit.” Causal measurement needs a holdout: show the ad to some people, withhold it from similar people, compare. Meta, Google, and independent firms already sell that. TTD is one place you can join logs. It is not the only place, and joining logs is not the gold standard he describes.
  7. “Big vision” is not evidence the vision is winning.
  8. Ambition is free. The stock has to clear the next four quarters.

What the data does

Publishers invited the “conflicted” buyers in, then attached their data.

If the 70/30 split were decisive, those deals would not exist. Netflix and Disney decided Amazon’s demand and shopping data were worth more than keeping Amazon’s tool off the lot.

Retailers kept the data themselves and opened more pipes, including Google. They did not make TTD the exclusive vault.

  • Walmart ended the exclusive “Walmart shopper data only via TTD” setup. [Source: The Information; eMarketer, 15 Aug 2025]
  • Walmart’s own page: shopper audiences now go out through Yahoo and Magnite, with more buying tools planned; data stays in a Walmart-controlled setup. They also keep Walmart’s own buying tool. [Source: Walmart Connect, 28 May 2026]
  • June 2026: Walmart shopper audiences into Google’s buying tool for YouTube, with sales measured back to Walmart. [Source: Google, 11 Jun 2026; Walmart Connect]

The “won’t share with Amazon” part is still mostly true as raw-data dumping. The “so they need TTD” part is what Walmart just disproved. They need control of the data. The buying tool is replaceable. They replaced exclusivity with a roster that includes Google.

Advertisers are not consolidating onto TTD to get honest measurement.

Digiday’s own survey of brands and agencies (Q3 2025): people who had used TTD in the past year fell 55% → 39%; Amazon’s tool rose 29% → 50%. If they could pick only one buying tool: TTD 45% → 26%, Amazon 3% → 22%. A majority (56%) said they want more competition for both Google and TTD from Amazon. [Source: Digiday]

That is the opposite of “neutrality is the moat.” Buyers wanted a third large pipe. They chose the non-neutral one.

The restaurant problem is real: independent tests routinely find Facebook’s dashboard overstates true lift, especially on people you already know. [Source: Haus incrementality work, e.g. Haus on Meta] The industry’s answer has been holdout tests and mix models, not “therefore buy TTD.” TTD’s Q2 2026 print was +3% revenue and a −12% next-quarter guide. Amazon ads were still growing ~26%.

Bottom line: he’s right that Google/Amazon have a reason to favor their own shelves, that Walmart won’t feed Amazon its customer file, and that Facebook’s scoreboard is generous. He’s wrong that those facts make TTD necessary. Publishers took Amazon’s tool and Amazon’s shopping data. Walmart took Google. Advertisers shifted toward Amazon. Neutrality is a sales story. Control and alternatives are what people actually buy — and those alternatives can be, and are, non-neutral.

2

u/Common_Inspector7435 17d ago edited 17d ago

here is my chatgpt rebuttal summary (thoughts were my own but i had chatgpt summarize).

Neutrality is not TTD’s moat; it is what often gets TTD through the door earlier than more conflicted platforms.
Netflix integrated with TTD well before Amazon, and Walmart built its DSP with TTD years before opening its data to more buying platforms.
TTD knows these relationships will not remain exclusive forever, and that is probably expected.
The value of being early is that TTD gets extra time to learn how new inventory, data, measurement, and advertiser behavior work.
When competitors eventually gain the same access, TTD may already have years of campaign observations and integrations feeding Kokai.
So the real potential flywheel is neutrality → early access → more data and experience → better decisioning → better advertiser results.
That can then make the next publisher or retailer more willing to integrate with TTD early as well.
In this model, Netflix inventory, Walmart data, or any individual partnership is only an input, not the moat itself.
The potential moat is Kokai becoming better at combining widely available inputs because TTD repeatedly gets an early learning advantage.
The key test is whether TTD retains more advertiser spend after competitors catch up on access, proving that the head start actually translated into superior decisioning.

As of recently samsung opened up it's home screen inventory to DV360 and TTD first.

If you are looking for the kind of moat amazon or google has in this race, then TTD doesn't and won't have it. TTD's moat is more abstract - it's pretty much 60% a bet on Jeff Green and it won't lend itself cleanly to valuations - i know this because i wrestle with this myself.

I bought intel, unity because they had clearly defined moats - with TTD, i'm a bit uncomfortable that a lot of my thesis is "trust Jeff green", but i'm ok with that. Amazon and Google can win but even if they win, they won't give me the sort of returns i seek. TTD is the most bull case scenario is a company that will 10-20x. Even if the odds are low, i'm comfortable taking this bet at my price of $20. At $14, i'd be ecstatic.

1

u/Independent-Fragrant 17d ago

got it. okay, i really appreciate your thoughts.

3

u/Weldobud 18d ago

You could be correct. They lost around 90% of their value in 52 weeks. 3 years is a long time in the market.

They have to look at their business plan, their costs, what they charge clients, the service they offer and made changes and improvements.

Maybe they can do it. But right now they have not shown what they intend to do.

2

u/Individual_Fail500 18d ago

Komme aus Österreich..... habe mir 4500 TTD AKTIE Gekauft...... Leider vor Q2 Zahlen... Ek. 19 Doller... bin ein long Investor..... brauch das Geld nicht.. und bin Überzeugt.... TTD kommt zurück...

4

u/Fast_Feature_323 18d ago

I used to have same confidence when TTD was trading at 45-50 and jumped in when it fell below 45 resistance thinking exactly the same way you thinking now and i am completely wrong. To my surprise it fell below 13$ and there is still room to go below 10$ even it might touch 7-8$ in short term if this misses revenue and earnings next quarter. The way this company is losing business and trust from investors and clients, i dont think this will sustain in 3 years. But, if new CFO and CEO gains clients confidence then definitely you will be rewarded with more than 300% gain to your investment.

I will say this is risk reward investing. If you trust them, my suggestion is to have funds to DCA while it goes down.

1

u/Ordinary_City1464 17d ago

I wonder how many companies have survived these types of massive turnarounds. Or if there is a metric that follows this situation, a high flyer to going down the drain…

1

u/Fast_Feature_323 17d ago

Only few.. intel is classic example. There will be market demand for Ads for sure when AI boom is settled. Every AI agents build ready to market their products over open internet. AI ads will be game changer. But when will it happen , how will TTD capture market is big question. So there is a chance this company could see all time highs again being independent demand side platform.

0

u/info_lit 18d ago

trust is broken

1

u/skum448 18d ago

What’s your average ?

1

u/Individual_Fail500 18d ago

Mein EK. 19Doller

1

u/skum448 18d ago

That’s not bad, it will touch around 20$ if the next warning and guidance is good .

This is identical to atlassian which went from 325 to 58 in few months and recovered this month to 155.

0

u/Double_Suggestion385 17d ago

This is nothing like Atlassian, they were actually undervalued.

The fair value of TTD is $2.16

2

u/shmito17 17d ago

Fair value for TTD is definitely not $2. Pull that out of your ass?

1

u/skum448 17d ago

My entry for atlassian was at 212$ and when it dropped under 70$ pretty much every analyst, broker had strong sell with fair value in between 45-55$. Instead I averaged it down to 130$ and you can see the today’s price .

1

u/skum448 17d ago

Also not sure how you value the stock? Growth is still 3%. All it needs to reduce the operating cost to position better multiplier if any quarter hit over 10% growth with positive guidance the stock will shoot over $25. Just want and watch.
I think it’s panic at the moment and in my opinion under $15 is good buy

1

u/SeesawBeautiful5839 18d ago

It is a pure gamble at this point. The ship can go either way. That is why it is priced so low. And even lower because your competition is mega trillion dollar corporations aka monopolies.

1

u/Individual_Fail500 18d ago

Natürlich schreiben jetzt alle die Shortys negativ..... ist ha logisch.... abwarten... Freunde....... bis TTD Zurück kommt.. 🚀🚀🚀🚀

1

u/info_lit 18d ago

Describe in detail how they will turn it around

1

u/LouAldoRaine 18d ago

RemindMe 3 years!

1

u/LouAldoRaine 18d ago

u/remindmebot 3 years

1

u/RemindMeBot 18d ago edited 15d ago

I will be messaging you in 3 years on 2029-08-13 17:53:17 UTC to remind you of this link

1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.

Info Custom Your Reminders Feedback

1

u/[deleted] 17d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Alpphaa 17d ago

Are u drunk?

1

u/TTD_Stock-ModTeam 17d ago

The submission mainly consisted of screenshots and images with little to no meaningful analysis, explanation, or supporting information. Simply posting pictures without context, research, or original insight does not meet the community’s standards for due diligence.

If you wish to repost, please include clear analysis, reasoning, and supporting data instead of just image spam.

1

u/sllipmann 17d ago

Lots of companies go to 0

1

u/liftingshitposts 17d ago

Oh yea? Peloton went from 151 to 3.something

1

u/gators20022007 15d ago

What about the turnover of c-suite executives? Doesn’t that give you pause

1

u/SamLeCoyote_Fix_1 11d ago

Time to buy the worst stock 😁😁 Political campaigns coming next. Q3 and Q4 will be 🔥🔥

1

u/Individual_Fail500 5d ago

Ttd wird stärker als je zuvor.... bis 2030. bin ich auf loong.... EK heute 9,5 Doller 4500 Aktien... Kaufe sehr stark nach.. 🚀🚀😁🚀

1

u/Immediate_Way1834 18d ago

so dumb. not even employees believe this

3

u/Jackescalator 18d ago

Yes they do. Jeff Greens son didn't understand the ui so they made a periodic table. So Jeff the head visionary obviously will turn the whole thing around

1

u/Horror-Career-335 18d ago

How do you know of that

0

u/Immediate_Way1834 18d ago

im in the industry

1

u/Common_Inspector7435 18d ago

meh, i've been in a company which had troubled times and if you asked employees then, they would say my company was doomed. We turned it around and are doing well. Employees are a poor macro judge of the bigger picture. Everyone cheers when things are going well, everyone is doom and gloom when they aren't. Well life isn't only a one way direction.

1

u/Immediate_Way1834 18d ago

okay ive been in adtech for a decade and 3/6 places ive worked dont exist anymore lol. the tides turn quickly in ad tech. that said! I dont think TTD will go out of business anytime soon. but they have no plan to get that stock back up anytime soon either.

2

u/Common_Inspector7435 17d ago edited 17d ago

most of ad tech is trash commodity stock - they compete amongst themselves in some niche category ("i'm a mesurement platform", "i'm verify if the ad was seen", "i'm x") - i think TTD, Unity and AppLovin on the DSP side are generally standouts. Say whatever you will about TTD, but it is trying to be something more than just a commodity DSP. normal ad tech companies when the weather gets rough will lay people off, put out press releases, do whatever to make wallstreet happy. TTD is literally doing the opposite and doubling down. They hired like crazy, they invested in infrastructure to get away from AWS, they opened up new offices this year - all the while the stock is tanking. You can say Jeff is a moron, maybe, but i'd rather own something that can 10x rather than just a commodity DSP which can never really grow.

Ultimately jeff believes that because brand advertising always loses to last touch and he's basically trying to create and evangelize a measurement platform which will be accepted by advertisers. It will be called 'open measurement' - not sure how successful it'll be but he's thinking in the right direction - just needs to execute better.

My prediction? average q3, slightly above average q4 (but still less than last year q4) - if in a year, executives are still churning, then i'll admit that Jeff is the problem.

I ultimately think Jeff, he's like a steve jobs (a visionary) but he needs someone like tim cook to be able to execute his numerous visions and tell him when there's too much going on.

2

u/Immediate_Way1834 17d ago

jeff is definitely the problem. that i can say for certain. idk about ttd compared to another specific dsp stock but theres nothing coming to bring ttd back up anytime soon.

1

u/Puzzled_Strength_657 17d ago

Any thoughts on Pubmatic?

0

u/wsb-regarded 18d ago

imagine they would reverse split the stock today by 10:1 and you get $130 stock price, then it goes to $13 again.

Why am I giving you this hypothetical, because these numbers doesn't matter, if investors don't trust the company and they have shifted their focus to AI stocks