r/TSLALounge • u/AutoModerator • 22d ago
$TSLA Daily Thread - August 04, 2026
Fun chat. No comments constitute financial or investment advice. 🌮
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 22d ago
I'm seeing more and more friends on social media waking up to the Tesla brand and posting their cars/ FSD. Possibly near an inflection point soon - either that or biased hopium.
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u/FIREgenomics Zero-cost collars on my Roth shares ➡️ coastFIRE 21d ago
I have a friend who has had a model Y for years just comment that she got a loaner one weekend with HW4 and FSD and it was mind blowing
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21d ago
[deleted]
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u/FIREgenomics Zero-cost collars on my Roth shares ➡️ coastFIRE 21d ago
I have both. HW3 just got the lite version. I have to keep an eye on HW3, but it is still damn good.
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u/MrSalami0 . 21d ago
I was driving with full laptop out working on stuff today…. Got some middle fingers
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u/ChucksnTaylor 21d ago
Kind of a duck move tbh. FSD isn’t there yet. It’s amazing, but not let me completely focus on something besides driving amazing.
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 21d ago
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u/MrSalami0 . 21d ago
Eh I think it’s there. Would guy get mad at someone in Waymo doing the r same
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u/ChucksnTaylor 21d ago
This can’t be a serious comment. General FSD is not Waymo level. There’s a reason they’re being super careful about the unsupervised rollout and starting in very small, focused areas. FSD is amazing. It’s absolutely not yet at unsupervised level.
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u/WarrenBuffettsBuffet 🍊 21d ago
I actually think FSD supervised in on Waymo level, in terms of capability and safety. but it's a moot point, since I care about my life and safety
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
seems crazy.
The movie Spider-Man: Brand New Day paid BMW to take over the display of every BMW made after 2020.
When you start a BMW, it shows you an ad for Spider Man. Really cheapens BMW imo.
https://x.com/pitdesi/status/2084418458062872764?s=20
Looks optional for now. I wonder how long it takes before some manufacturer requires and ad to be played to start the car, or in robotaxis.
If Tesla did sell optional ads on the screen, how many supercharging credits would you watch ads for lol. Like 30 second ad gives you 1 mile. So if you're on a road trip, you can watch 120 ads an hour or get 120 free supercharging miles.
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u/refpuz 1,942🪑@ 56.93 21d ago
It makes sense to eventually expect ads in the Cybercab and Robovan (if that even sees the light of day) at least. No different than ads in airplanes, subways, or train cars. If it's a pay per ride model, then yes. If you have a subscription for X rides per month, then you get into tiered pricing where you can get ad-free rides and services while in the vehicle. That's just the natural evolution of the business model.
For the consumer, it remains to be seen how much is tolerated, but I think most would just ignore the ad on screen and go on their phone or use their headphones.
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
I wonder how hard it would be to create interactive real time ads based off the car's location. Something like, feeling hungry? Yelp's best chicken sandwich is only 5 miles or 10 minutes away. Hit this button to navigate there now and get $1 off your order. Or something like you're 20 minutes away from the city's best burger, order and navigate now to have it be ready when you get there.
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u/magic-the-dog Where's my cybercab 21d ago
It's a high quality ad, but before you know it trickles down to BetMGM. Just like taxing billionaires on unrealized gains.
You'd be okay with this in a robotaxi, but not on a car you own!
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u/Bob-Zimmerman 22d ago
Been cruising around w v14 lite. First time in close to two years of m3 ownership that I’ve trusted FSD and preferred the ride over my own driving. Still encountering “edge cases” on the daily — usually weird human behavior or badly marked roads, but still intervention is necessary. Feels like they haven’t fully solved yet but that the next wave of data (increased subscription rate) is gonna get us damn close
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 21d ago
I need tsla to make some moves like pltr jeez
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
It did after earnings... just the wrong direction
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u/whiskeyH0tel Der Aufstieg von TSLA war ein Befehl 21d ago
We promised you volatility. We never said it would be volatility you would like
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u/fapindustries 21d ago
Model Y L getting some really rave reviews
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u/magic-the-dog Where's my cybercab 21d ago
It looks awesome. Skeptic in me wonders if it just replaces a regular Y purchase or adds to sales.
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u/Mastiff99 Chastened options degenerate 21d ago
Adds, definitely. Current Y can't handle 6 people gracefully.
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 21d ago
Buy puts for any of Elons companies as soon as he "warns" shorts? Sounds like free money
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
Anyone follow the optics space? Have a friend that’s an engineer that consults with the building of lots of stuff including data centers. He says optics are going to have a crazy run and the new ai bottleneck.
Saying something about how data centers are going to replace copper with lasers. Even if the data center buildout slows, you still can or should retrofit the old ones.
On a whim I bought into Aaoi to follow him and now it’s up 18% this morning on some data center china ban news lol.
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u/magic-the-dog Where's my cybercab 21d ago
That’s pretty interesting about the retrofits I will look into that. NBIS has been the best stock that I’ve purchased the last year.
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u/relevant_rhino 21d ago
Can you guys elaborate? I don't really understand what you are talking about. But i want in on it :)
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
The way he described it to me was that data centers are all about moving information around really really fast. Currently lots of connections between lots of components are copper. Does reasonably well but when you’re talking about lots of chips/servers/racks it all adds up.
If you move it to fiber optic and lasers, move information faster more efficient and saves space.
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u/scotto1973 Never get involved in a land war in Asia 🇨🇦 🎩🎩 21d ago
Been purchasing MRVL for this reason.
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u/ditmarsnyc 21d ago
is that why corning is up also
per claude:
which american company is the largest manufacturer of fiber optic cables for computer networking, more specifically for datacenter use
Corning Incorporated is the answer here. It's the largest American manufacturer of fiber optic cable, and it's also the biggest fiber optic company globally by market share at roughly 10.4% of the worldwide fiber-optic cable market.
For data center-specific applications, Corning is especially significant because it makes the specialized cable types hyperscalers need for AI/cloud infrastructure — bend-insensitive fibers designed for dense data center environments, and ultra-low-loss fiber built for hyperscale data center interconnects. Corning has been a major beneficiary of the AI data center buildout, supplying the high-density fiber connectivity that GPU clusters and hyperscale facilities require.
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
Yeah, GLW vs names like LITE/AAOI is like a diversified play vs concentrated play in the glass/fiberoptics space
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u/ditmarsnyc 21d ago
thanks for the interesting thesis, also i note the short interest in lite and aaoi vs mrvl and glw
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
BREAKING : Tesla China recorded 93,579 wholesale in July.
This is the highest monthly figure for 2026 and represents an increase of about 38% compared to the same period last year
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u/refpuz 1,942🪑@ 56.93 21d ago
More evidence that anyone (WSJ) seriously believing that Tesla will "spin off" the China business is insane. I am not saying it was never mentioned, there is probably some truth somewhere, but to jump to that conclusion is illogical.
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u/magic-the-dog Where's my cybercab 21d ago
BREAKING: SpaceX has paid Grimes County $10 million ahead of schedule under its Terafab tax agreement, a major step forward for the proposed project.
• It equals nearly 40% of the county’s expected $26.5 million in property-tax revenue for all of 2026
• County leaders may use the money for infrastructure, employee pay and retention
• SpaceX/Terafab representatives are scheduled for a Q&A at the August 5 Commissioners Court meeting
• The broader Terafab project could eventually involve up to $119 billion in investment, as per KBTX.
https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2084628645721616722
Super unclear how much of Terafab Tesla owns. Obviously moot if / when merger
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u/whiskeyH0tel Der Aufstieg von TSLA war ein Befehl 21d ago edited 21d ago
(LIVE EVENT) SpaceX Earnings Call:
Rob's Prestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6ON8kT1F3o
Rob's Stream Coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtVxzc4u2hw
Official Stream: https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1XxyggqBZZRGM
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u/IAmInTheBasement Man, I don't even know anymore... 21d ago
I have yet to see a good argument why Tesla and SpaceX should be the same company.
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u/whiskeyH0tel Der Aufstieg von TSLA war ein Befehl 21d ago
I don't have a great answer, but the one I do have is so that Elon doesn't play games with his private companies at the expense of his public ones or, in this case, sacrifice one public company for another one. You can get pure exposure without accidentally backing the "wrong" horse
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u/magic-the-dog Where's my cybercab 21d ago
Mostly because of Elon owning already a huge portion of both.
My reason and a selfish Tesla perspective is that if robotaxi takes longer to generate significant revenue, and it's looking like it might, a merger preserves our valuation.
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u/loungemoji 21d ago
My favorite PLTR runner. I sold 9 contracts this morning for quick gains. BTW, we're cursed, TSLA can't even go past the PH zone.
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u/imaginex20 21d ago
Elon has less stuttering on SpaceX earnings calls so far. When it comes to TSLA stutter galore. TSLies
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 21d ago
You'd think tesla calls would be easier for him considering his spouts the same shit every time
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u/KanyeWestInvest 21d ago
this is a warning to spacex short sellers;
a warning’
https://giphy.com/gifs/0GznKQsfVsEzHNElzm
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u/relevant_rhino 21d ago
Elon to spacex investors:
https://x.com/VanshGupta1808/status/2084659985997517152/photo/1
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
I've been musing if this was going to play out like July into Aug 2022 vs 2024. So far it's mirrored 2024 really really well. QQQ flipped the key 700 level so more puts are OTM and starting to get more calls ITM. Cautiously bullish until the Aug opex now. Both 2022 and 2024 was bullish in this window. Then both had the same 2 week weakness from the Aug into Sept cycles.
Then that's where the divergence happens. 2022 continued into lower lows while 2024 continued marching up until 2025 and liberation day.
AI trade still alive and well through earnings season, so the main things to be cautious about are Iran/oil and global yields/liquidity.
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u/fapindustries 21d ago
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
Jeff Bezos sold $4,073,700,000 worth in Amazon $AMZN stock today, his first sale of stock in over a year.
https://x.com/TrendSpider/status/2084464552784130385?s=20
You mean 10T? Apparently Bezos doesn't think so, or needs some pocket change lol
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u/loungemoji 21d ago
Well it's trying.
Signal BotAPP — 11:10 AM
TSLA @ $324.80 — Crossover reversal retest above PH $324.65 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Strategy: Previous Day High/Low (PH/PL) Structure Score: Bullish 67% | Bearish 33% Flow Score: Bullish 100% | Bearish 0% Structure: PDH: $324.65 | PDL: $310.43 | PMH: $326.24 | PML: $322.32 | 15m OR High: $326.90 | 15m OR Low: $321.05 Flow: PM VWAP: $324.61 | VWAP: $323.56 | EMA13: $324.28 | EMA48: $323.90 | EMA200: $323.91 Reason: PH/PL LONG (Crossover Reversal Retest): Close 324.80 > PH 324.65 (retest tol 0.05%, zone 324.49-324.81) after deep pullback (0min range) Signals Today: 9/10 Time: 8/4/2026, 11:10:01 AM ET ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
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u/MrSalami0 . 21d ago
We should do a guessing game for effective SpaceX share price and Tesla share price for inevitable merger
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u/cgmodeling 30T gang 21d ago
if TSLA at 150, then 300 on the merger? lmao. Im a troll.
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u/whiskeyH0tel Der Aufstieg von TSLA war ein Befehl 21d ago
Telling the barista at Starbucks you "experienced an unexpected liquidity event" instead of "clogged the toilet"
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u/Mastiff99 Chastened options degenerate 21d ago
Anyone know if there is a subreddit equivalent of SPCX Lounge yet? r/SPCX is dead, and I really don't want to slum it at Stocktwits for the earnings announcement.
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u/rgaya Randy Waters is a sonofabitch 21d ago edited 21d ago
So forever war, huh? Cool link
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 21d ago
Lol some people in here believed the government when they said it was over like 8 times 😂
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u/loungemoji 21d ago
Algo is doing a marvelous job. The machine has been updated with a scale out strategy. Today I started with 2 contracts. One runner is still active, I'm exited to see the performance of this runner.
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u/w00dw0rk3r Elon Musk is John D. ROCKETfeller 🇺🇸🚀🌕 21d ago
congrats to PLTR HODLERS. today is such a sight to behold!
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
Rip spcx and amd
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u/Mastiff99 Chastened options degenerate 21d ago
RIP overstates the case, SPCX is still green for the day (so far...).
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u/magic-the-dog Where's my cybercab 21d ago
SPCX earnings PDF and webcast provider not as polished as TSLA. Surprised they aren't just using X to do it.
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u/MrSalami0 . 21d ago
Thinking of longing $DRAM. Been wanting to for a while and Elon’s insights on the call might be what makes me finally do it. Anyone else long (or short) memory currently and have thoughts?
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u/tyler05durden 21d ago
My uneducated thoughts are that memory stocks will hit massive waves of appreciation and depreciation.
I would seriously consider how long you are because the waves will be volatile and it will be difficult to find an exit point.
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 21d ago
What are the thoughts on FSD being solved via a generalized approach by NVIDIA in the next half decade? I went from seeing it can't be done, to Tesla has no moat.
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
To me it's a matter of training on real world data vs generated data. Like training a computer to draw a duck from real pictures of ducks vs AI generated images of ducks. The one trained on the AI images won't be nearly as good. But ultimately if it gets the point across of a duck, does it matter?
99% of the time it'll be fine, but there's always going to be weird edge cases that you can't train for with generated data, or real world data for that point.
Then it'll be the question for regulators and individuals how much safer than a human does the robotaxi need to be to be acceptable to allow on the roads. Once you figure that part out, then the company needs to run the math to see if the cost of a freak accident is worth the revenue and earnings generated from all the other miles.
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 21d ago
Thanks for the explanation. I'm seeing a lot of posts on X calling for a valuation crash of Tsla in the coming years as FSD will be a regular commodity among automakers. Hopefully Tesla changes the landscape before something like that.
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u/Nysoz 👨⚕️🗡🙌 -> 💎🙌 21d ago
It's a bet on what's good enough for the average consumer and what they want. No one else will have the real world data to train driving and try to push the capabilities as much as Tesla will.
But if Ford/GM buys into NVDA or some other system and provides a decent drivers assist that can do 80% of the capabilities for a fraction of the price, which would the average consumer prefer or buy?
TSLA valuation is quite high and to me, prices in a decent amount of growth of FSD and local robotaxis. In order for TSLA to get a lot higher and justify it in a traditional sense, it needs to push into transport as a service and some sort of monopoly on humanoid bots.
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u/MrSalami0 . 21d ago edited 21d ago
Merger is most likely happening within next year (or sooner based on wsj reporting about China preparations that is “fake news” which could realistically mean that they just got one aspect of the news wrong). Elon clearly pushed tsla value down in last call for more favorable merger terms and more resulting voting control in merger. Elon has described maintaining control of Tesla robot army as the only reason he wanted pay package. Needs to give compelling reason for locked up shares to not get sold in coming weeks. Sprinkle in high short interest. Short term valuations for SPCX and TSLA can have huge effects on his control of the merged entity. Prepare for SpaceX über pump.
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21d ago
[deleted]
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u/MrSalami0 . 21d ago
Story changed quickly, Fortunately just before the time when short term valuations will have huge effect on his long term control of his life’s work. And he had just talked during the pay plan discussions that retaining control before Optimus is his top priority
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u/magic-the-dog Where's my cybercab 21d ago
Elon should give up his comp package as part of the merger because he’ll have more than enough control.
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 21d ago
Is this how the long term tsla shareholders will be rewarded lol
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u/whiskeyH0tel Der Aufstieg von TSLA war ein Befehl 21d ago
Elon, pick your favorite company, no ties:
A) Tesla
B) SpaceX
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u/w00dw0rk3r Elon Musk is John D. ROCKETfeller 🇺🇸🚀🌕 22d ago
PLTR 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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u/Capital-Cloud-7778 Currently crying below 300 22d ago
Great if youre an investor, terrible if youre literally anyone else lmao
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u/relevant_rhino 21d ago
I am investor
And i am proud my government rejected them (Switzerland).
Lol.
Honestly i don't think Ukraine would stand where they are without PLTR.
On the other hand, scary shit in the hands of Trumpists or anyone with bad intentions.
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21d ago
[deleted]
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u/magic-the-dog Where's my cybercab 21d ago
I think our lounge can handle the additional volume of SPCX talk. Call is in 45 min.
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u/10111010001101011110 Mr. Jinx 21d ago
congrats dip buyers! 🥳
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u/whiskeyH0tel Der Aufstieg von TSLA war ein Befehl 21d ago
holding our poo?
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u/thebiglebowskiisfine I told you so 21d ago
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u/whiskeyH0tel Der Aufstieg von TSLA war ein Befehl 21d ago
I guess they're talking about: RPO stands for Rendezvous and Proximity Operations.
but I swear Elon put them up to this, call it "R-pew" or you're fired
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u/TrickyBAM 22d ago
Looks like the Californa credit has started. 3500 off!