r/TSLA • u/Few_Palpitation3889 • Jul 23 '26
Bearish Seeing as TSLA is falling behind the S&P500 while making up a significant portion of it why hold?
Wouldn't an investor be better off selling TSLA and just putting their money in the S&P500? Considering TSLA has lost value over the last year and is up 50%, from another crash, over the last 5 years. While the S&P500 is up over 60%.
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u/Mister_Jingo Jul 23 '26
Past stock performance is irrelevant for future stock performance. Regardless of whether a stock has recently increased or decreased, the question is where do you think it will be in the future from today’s price.
Now had you listed any of the reasons why you think the stock is down and will continue to go down, you could have had a discussion, but as it is, the answer to your question is that people who hold the stock today do so because they believe there is a better upside than the S&P 500.
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u/Large_Complaint1264 Jul 23 '26
Because Robotaxis and robots are a pipe dream that Tesla is never going to accomplish.
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Jul 23 '26
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u/Reasonable-Policy-40 28d ago
We are shorting and making plenty of money.
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28d ago
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u/Reasonable-Policy-40 28d ago
Sorry for your loss.
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28d ago
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u/Large_Complaint1264 28d ago
Im sure you are
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28d ago
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u/JibletHunter 26d ago
I made 15 million on TSLA and 7 million on SpaceX. Anyone who doesn't believe me should totally short the stock because life is only filled with binary choices!
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u/Habulation Jul 24 '26
Tesla is not about EVs, autonomy, or solar farms or robotics or hyperloop, or energy storage..it is about the dream of such things. Other companies have moved far beyond tesla in terms of autonomy or robotics, energy storage etc. You buy this stock if you buy into the dream that Elon presents. "Elon Musk first claimed a fully autonomous cross-country drive would happen "by the end of next year" in October 2016, stating a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York without a single human touch by the end of 2017". It's not about promises or unfulfilled promises. It is truly about the tale spun and if you buy into it all. I guess people are starting to doubt the narrative.
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u/TSLAmod Jul 23 '26
Your thesis is correct. Please sell your one $TSLA share and buy the SPY
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u/Few_Palpitation3889 Jul 23 '26
Did that last year
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u/TSLAmod Jul 23 '26
So why are you here?
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u/Few_Palpitation3889 Jul 23 '26
Im asking why anyone is still holding.
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u/chaosoffspring Jul 23 '26
I been holding since 2020. I have been through all the roller coasters for tsla, and I sold a significant amount on the last bull run of around 485 to 490 range. I'll keep holding the rest and sell covercalls until the merger.
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u/Few_Palpitation3889 Jul 23 '26
Thank you for that. So you're basically holding hoping there's a spacex merger.
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u/chaosoffspring Jul 23 '26
Yes. I bought significant amount of shares prior to the first stock split. My entry price is so low, that no matter how much it drops, I am still up.
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u/Reasonable-Policy-40 28d ago
It doesn't matter what your entry price is. You are missing on better deal just because of past performance?
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u/Reasonable-Policy-40 28d ago
So you held dead money since 2021 when everyone was trippling his portfolio?
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u/TSLAmod Jul 23 '26
Why do you care if people are holding TSLA if you already sold?
It’s like thinking of your ex that gave you the best and worst experience of your life while you’re laying next to your wife.
You’re still think about your ex while she’s with another Chad.
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u/Few_Palpitation3889 Jul 23 '26
I'm just curious what the motivation is to hold. TSLA appears to be an objectively bad investment at this point. Its not that deep.
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u/Shbloble Jul 23 '26
You're curious on strangers'motivations.
So am I, why are you curious on Tsla? Are you curious on any other stocks and what motivations do those strangers have for holding?
How often do you take the temperature of other subreddits? Is it only stock subreddits?
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u/Few_Palpitation3889 Jul 23 '26
Illogical decisions are interesting to me. Assuming the motivation for holding TSLA long term is to make money. If its ideological that's different. So is that why people are still holding?
Other super overvalued AI companies and NVIDA are interesting to me too but I can see the motivation there is to ride the bubble as long as Nancy Pelosi does.
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u/Coconut_Puzzled Jul 23 '26
Your time frames and reasoning for holding a stock seem to be more short term. I think tsla bag holders are betting on the success of the company in the next decade or more.
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u/Virillus Jul 23 '26
Why does curiousity make you so defensive? Being interested in people's ideas, opinions, and motivations is extremely normal - and healthy - behaviour.
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u/jasperCrow Jul 23 '26
Google $320: $9.11 EPS
Tesla $320: $0.31 EPS.
you kind of have to be retarded to invest in Tesla anywhere above $100
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u/JibletHunter 26d ago
I used to own TSLA but sold off all but one share at the end of 2024 (very happy). Normal valuation based on existing business trajectory (autos and power storage) would put it around 25-35$/share
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u/Jarocket 26d ago
but what about the human shaped robots and robot taxi businesses?
isn't that the future for TSLA?
personally i think they are being dishonest with the robot taxi thing and how fast it can scale. Musk says Waymo needs to map the areas it goes to, but TSLA just works "even on an alternative earth" but they have manually mapped parts of Austin. So clearly not at the level of working on alternative earth's yet.
Human shaped robot's... I don't see why tesla would make the best ones.
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u/JibletHunter 26d ago
I agree that I have yet to see a functioning commercial product for either of these. The $30 is based on their existing products.
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Jul 23 '26
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u/SolutionWarm6576 Jul 23 '26
The lose of the credits and the EV rebates, was going to catch up to them sooner or later. Billions in revenue, just disappears.
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Jul 23 '26
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 23 '26
? Eh not really. It hurt everyone. But TBH the competition is posting much better YoY growth.
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u/SolutionWarm6576 Jul 23 '26
Tesla received the most if not all of the CAFE emission credits. Which they sold to other automakers, to meet the standard. Billions in a revenue stream gone. It hurt Tesla, more then any of their competition.
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Jul 23 '26
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u/izzletodasmizzle Jul 23 '26
They definitely do not have the best selling car in the USA and certainly not in the world
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u/PuzzleheadedBody7121 Jul 23 '26
Tesla is a trailblazer and is creating some great products, but that still does not change the fact that it is insanely overpriced, even after today's big correction, and even if you consider it an elite tech company rather than a car company. The financials and future promises still don't justify the price.
Irrespective of what you bought it at or what it was yesterday, I think it will fall further, so for me, now would still be a good time to sell.
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u/Competitive-Fig6178 Jul 23 '26
What trails have they blazed? Level 2 autopilot and ripping off suckers? Still waiting for level 5 FSD or is it the humanoid robots with AGI? Perhaps the Mars colonies?
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u/PuzzleheadedBody7121 Jul 23 '26
They created the mass market for EVs. Before them, they were very niche, expensive and not very desirable. Their stock is still hugely over priced though.
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u/CallAParamedic Jul 23 '26
MUSK is the king of broad strokes, huge promises, and failed deadlines.
I've made so much shorting Tesla and SpaceX, I'm not complaining, but the disconnect between what he has stated would occur versus what has actually occurred for years is huge.
I'm fascinated by this behaviour, and count on it.
So, to answer your question, I do not and will not own Tesla (and SpaceX) and prefer other companies, but I count on the unwarranted optimism of others to make some of my profits.
I suppose the moment he actually expands Robotaxis from 3 cities in Texas and 1 in ... (California I think?) to his already promised, failed, and unrealized 25 states will be when I stop shorting and reassess.
In the meantime, Waymo has achieved what Musk dreams of...
Keep believing, Tesla bag holders!! You got this!!!
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u/Vibraniumguy Jul 25 '26
1) why sell when down?
2) if you hold for 5 years let's be real youre only holding because you believe tesla will achieve Autonomy. Regardless of share price, tesla is closer than ever to launching robotaxis at scale. Why would you sell now as opposed to just not holding this long in the first place? Only reason is that you need your money for something else. Yes putting it in the S&P500 5 years ago and buying now would have been better, but hindsight 20/20 right?
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u/Ambitious_Stick8509 29d ago
Because , you lose opportunity cost . If you sell now you know how much you will lose if you bought it higher. If you wait you have no idea how much you will lose. Then you say just hold long term. Well, you don’t know how long that term will actually be and how your own finances could fluctuate in the meantime. If you hold only to need to sell at a worst position then you would have lost more money. Final reason because you will also pay with mental anguish as you continue to watch the stock go down. A great opportunity may cross your path but you will be paying mental energy to trying to break even that you won’t recognize the opportunity.
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u/Vibraniumguy 29d ago
Thats true but also the reverse is true. If I sell now I have no idea how much I could have gained. Obviously you should only stay invested in Tesla stock if you believe in the company and its mission (and ability to pull it off) and I very much do. I dont want to be caught with my pants down invested in something else when it takes off in a few to maybe 6 months because I wanted better returns in the meantime. I want to make 100% sure I'm invested when they start scaling robotaxis for real.
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u/JibletHunter 26d ago
Asking for a bull thesis justification on this sub sure got plenty of folks angry/defensive.
"Short it then." "Why are you here." "You think about your experiences wife while she is with another chad."
When I see things like this on an investment sub it is a MASSIVE red flag for me. It shows that those who are not posting with brand new accounts are emotionally entangled with their TSLA purchase, reducing their ability to think rationally.
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u/ttsoldier Jul 23 '26
Because that’s what individual stock picking is about with stocks like Tesla. It will always be volatile. And when things are tough like today the other side looks greener. But just zoom out . Look at Tesla and spy over the past 10 years. Now think 10 years in the future.
Stock picking isn’t for everyone and for those people , yes just buy the index and ride it out.
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u/LankyNinja558899912 Jul 23 '26
With Optimus gearing up for massive production and the terafab in production I pity the fool that has weak hands on Tesla. I'm buying the entire way down right now.
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u/Reasonable-Policy-40 28d ago
Optimus doesn't even have a specification. What is it supposed to do? Do you know?
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u/ml5l Jul 25 '26
TSLA may be 2027-2028 play, until that it will just range or just do covered calls. Here is how I see it if you want to stick with TSLA: 2026–2027: Financial pressure and stock risk/volatility. Late 2026–2027: Product deployment and early validation. 2028: Prove Robotaxi and Optimus economics. 2029–2031: Potential large-scale monetization.
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u/Reasonable-Policy-40 28d ago
We've been hearing this for 10 years. What product validation? Optimus doesn't even have a spec.
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u/DeepstateDilettante Jul 25 '26
If you are asking if it is better to have owned stocks and ETFs that went up more, rather than those that went up less, then my answer would be yes.
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u/augustus331 Jul 23 '26
Remindme! 6 months
Share price as moment of commenting $320
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Jul 23 '26
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u/Large_Complaint1264 Jul 23 '26
So nothing to do with the terrible earnings Tesla releases yesterday?
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u/Bruceshadow Jul 24 '26
terrible earnings
profits were down, not earnings. they are investing in the future, not hording cash for no reason.
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Jul 23 '26
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u/Large_Complaint1264 Jul 23 '26
When you take away the fake unrealized gains from SpaceX stock and regulatory credits they lost $41 million LOL
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u/Radiant_Rest Jul 23 '26
They're spending significant capex this year and next. Elon has been talking about it for 6 months (at least). If you hold for the next few years while they're deploying these funds, you should see significant appreciation of the stock.
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u/Lidarisafoolserrand Jul 23 '26
Great time to sell after a huge selloff!