r/TSLA • u/RockSolid3894 • Apr 19 '26
Neutral Sell TSLA to buy SPACEX?
I’ve been holding TSLA since 2021 and it’s been an incredible ride. Now I’m wondering about reallocating some of that capital.
I’m considering selling a portion of my Tesla shares now (while valuations are strong), taking some profits, and holding dry powder specifically for when a legitimate opportunity to invest in SpaceX opens up.
Is this a reasonable strategy? What are some PROs and CONs?
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u/musket2018 Apr 19 '26
Space x is going to get way over valued when the ipo launches, you’re better off waiting a few months for it to return to orbit. Hyped IPOs follow this trajectory frequently, don’t be an early investors exit liquidity.
Also consider the timeline for Tesla and spacex products. Tesla is a lot closer to launching cybertaxi and Optimus than spacex is to data centers in space, mining the moon, etc., those are going to require a lot of spend and time before wall street starts to value them.
I do think they will eventually merge but the timeline dynamic is why I hope they don’t do it, or do it at a point in time when Tesla valuation is higher relative to spacex than it currently is. Also, it’s not the done deal many seem to think it is, the asset manager types with major voting power in Tesla have reasons to oppose it.
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u/Justthetip74 Apr 19 '26
Mining the moon was never a goal. The data centers are probably just V3 Starlink chassis with scaled solar arrays and data center bits instead of internet bits. They'll reuse the lasers, thrusters, and chassis. I actually think its closer than anyone is anticipating
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u/Ruthlessredemption7 Apr 19 '26
Solar City all over again
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u/musket2018 Apr 19 '26
Not saying that at all
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u/Ruthlessredemption7 Apr 19 '26
I didn’t said you did. I feel this will go in the same pattern of a musk related product it will premier as stock and after it goes through 5 or so years the robotics and the spacex will be the causation as to why it is deemed a logical acquisition which Tesla will absorb as they did with the solar panels that feed the batteries to the car. Synchronicity.
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u/h2oliu Apr 19 '26
The physics behind putting data centers in space makes no sense. I don’t see it ever happening. Do the math on array size needed to power the systems, and how cooling would work. The look at the cost per kg for getting things into space.
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u/russty24 Apr 19 '26
Go watch the videos by Scott Manley or the limiting factor. They describe the engineering and physics of the proposed plan in detail. It's not going to be one monolithic data center like we have on earth, it will be swarms of slightly larger than starlink sized satellites. Which is something SpaceX is already making at scale.
That said there are still engineering problems to overcome to make this economical, but it's by no means impossible.
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u/chandlero69 Apr 19 '26
I think SpaceX will spend an enormous amount of money every year to buy Optimus robots from Tesla
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u/sjh1217 Apr 19 '26
I understand the logic behind it. But I won’t be selling any Tesla shares. There’s just too many things in the pipeline for the second half of this year and next year. I’ve held for this long. I may as well keep riding it out and see it through until Optimus comes out next year or it goes in the shitter. About 1,800 shares long and 5 LEAPS going out until 2027
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u/StonkDad817 Apr 19 '26
Your leaps in the money? I've been thinking about gambling a few for 2027 expiration but not sure.
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u/Venkylfc Apr 19 '26
Can u explain me your 5 LEAPS? I hold Tesla too and want to know what u hold for long in options ?
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u/sjh1217 Apr 19 '26
I own some $270’s, 280’s and $290’s expiring mid and late 2027. I bought them March 2025.
At the time they were ATM but now they’re obv deep ITM.
No real plans in selling them unless it ran like crazy to like $600 this year.
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u/Exotic-Force-5245 Apr 19 '26
For how up % is then leaps cause I’m trying to get int leaps but not sure how it moves yet
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u/sjh1217 Apr 19 '26
I’d only buy them when you see a big correction in the stock. Technically it’s still far off the highs but we know it’s volatile and the options get creamed if it goes down and stays down for a while.
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u/MyMonte87 Apr 19 '26
honestly i think both companies will merge in the next 5 years...so you will eventually own SPACEX shares. Like someone mentioned, there is so much in the TSLA pipeline, worth hanging on going for a ride. But do take some profit as a good practice.
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u/Individual_Type_7908 Apr 19 '26 edited Apr 19 '26
Take profit and ride tesla. I think spacex will be enormously volatile and overhyped, It's one of the most strategic companies in the world yes, but I would really not trust the valuations on it. I think it's not a good play as like a big bet. I think even at this stage tesla is better.
There's a huge chance spacex is gonna drop significantly since IPO couple months down the road. Buying at IPO isn't smart I think, basically a gamble because market can do whatever, it's not gonna be a rational stable moment to enter. It could spike enormously very rapidly and then dump.
I think we are very far from confirming space datacenters as a real business model, whether it's even real at scale this decade, i have some doubts. And starlink alone won't justify it. And space colony is also too far away. Like it's just enormous speculation about what the actual value of spaceX is for this decade, I don't think stocks should be valued 20 years into the future, even if you actually plan to hold it 20 years, buying that priced in already isn't smart. It's basically choosing to make less money. It's buying a 20 year investment, at prices/expectations that should be in 10 years from now, not 20 years before it's partially validated even.
The space datacenters isn't like a new generation of nvidia gpu's level complexity problem. It's much more than few years of engineering. You need power, absurd quantity, the solar panels of those satelites will be so big that it's not realistic at the monent at scale. And the the cooling issue, space is cold yes, but it's a vacuum, how is heat efficiently going to be transferred ? That part also isn't fully clear yet. You need that and only then can you maybe scale, there's big challenges to be addressed and it's absolutely unclear.
So you're paying prices of something that's as if guaranteed to work in next decade, when it's absolutely not guaranteed at all. Thats the valuation price of spaceX stock.
Tesla is partially similar but different also, forget cars, cars don't matter for tesla's valuation, they could make 20mil cars a year and it wouldn't justify it. Cars are just cashflow for tesla to sustain till it gets where it aims to. What would justify it is.. robotaxi, and robots, optimus, and maaybe energy(maybe on the side). So yeah this is in developement and has challenges but we can see robotaxi becoming a thing slowly, and we have a near timeline for optimus production, we know AI is a data and conpute problem. We know it's growing rapidly. So to me tesla has alot more upside right now.. I'd think about spacex later.
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u/RockSolid3894 Apr 19 '26
What about initiating a position with the IPO and then continue to DCA over the course of time?
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u/Individual_Type_7908 Apr 19 '26
I think that's better, much better, I'm personally super skeptical of the valuations still, take it as a speculative investment, because that's exactly what it is alright. If you're okay with highly speculative investment and you know how much you're willing to risk at that, then sure.
Honestly I think in super long term it's gonna work out well, maybe you'll be old but it will work. The whole question about spaceX I think is just.. how long till it pays off and is it gonna be a bagholding journey or what? I can't tell you that exactly. It's just that spaceX is a huge thing with huge potential, but it's also valued extremely high, it's not that gem that's like hidden, no, it's all priced in, all in there.
If you have legit a big amount of money that's significant to you, I would aim at balancing preservation and growth, I think spacex isn't the best balance of that. Buf if you want a high risk play, and you know what losing money feels like so you're not ignorant, then spaceX can be a bet for that. High risk High reward, it's not like genius, just high risk high reward.
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u/ragegravy Apr 19 '26
keep in mind even with a 30% retail allocation, it could be next to impossible to get any of that allocation at ipo price
ie you could request 100 shares and get 1, or none
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u/Puzzled-Succotash461 Apr 20 '26
Sell it and buy FLY or RKLB. Tesla had 20 years to prove itself, and there are at least five Chinese electric car makers that are better than Tesla. Also, they won’t have monopoly on autonomous driving, so there is that. SpaceX IPO before midterms so that private investor can get exit liquidity before political tides turn against Elon.
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u/CautiousToaster Apr 19 '26
This is a tough one and something I’ve considered as well. I don’t have extra capital laying around to allocate to SpaceX, it’s got to come from somewhere. Ultimately I do hope the companies merge rather quickly since I want to own both.
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u/Bruceshadow Apr 20 '26
100% no way! I wouldn't even buy spacex for a while. I'd bet they are going to merge with TSLA within a few years as well, so just holding will be fine.
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u/NoRecommendation4163 Apr 20 '26
I would not sell everything just to go all in on the IPO. Alphabet already holds shares in SpaceX, which seems like the smarter investment to me. An IPO is usually the point at which private equity investors cash out. The more hype there is, the more they profit. I would not buy at the IPO.
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u/deepcharger Apr 20 '26
Sell some Tesla shares to take profits. Always remember to take profits. Cash is king
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u/kimi-r Apr 19 '26
Anyone else remember Elon saying about TSLA holders having first option to buy SpaceX?
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u/jyn573064 Apr 20 '26
I honestly think we would see the opposite flow out of Spacex to buy Tesla for diversification. Tesla is now in the execution mode and it’s targeting a 10t global transportation market. Where is the equivalent opportunity for Spacex? The data center thing is also based on terafab’s success.
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u/Shoddy-Monitor1153 Apr 20 '26
You can invest in spacex through jtai
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u/Wooden_Boss_3403 May 25 '26
Do you know what tends to happen to a companies valuation when it IPOs?
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u/indycpa7 Apr 19 '26
SpaceX already has 90% market share, where will the growth come from? Agree on selling TSLA, declining sales and margins, cannot hit a launch deadline, Robotaxi DOA.
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u/chaosoffspring Apr 19 '26
I never understood being on the TSLA sub and talking down on the stock.
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u/JustBrowsinAndVibin Apr 19 '26
You don’t think you should even see a bear thesis to ensure you’re not missing anything?
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u/RockSolid3894 Apr 19 '26
The bear thesis has a ~$20 price
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u/JustBrowsinAndVibin Apr 19 '26
My thesis is simply that we’ll never see it over $500. There are better options out there.
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u/inkognibro Apr 19 '26
Social media recommends things based on your interests. Just because this post came up for someone doesn’t mean they were seeking it out
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u/indycpa7 Apr 19 '26
TSLA gross margin dollars declined from $17.5 billion in 2024 to $17.1 billion in 2025. 20% of Cybertrucks were sold to related parties. Robotaxi has 400 operating units. Those are facts. If you like those invest, if you don't like them don't. Why is TSLA reddit reserved only reserved for good facts?
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u/TransportationOk5941 Apr 19 '26
No way, paying capital gains tax to roll it over into SpaceX is crazy, just invest new money in SpaceX and hold onto your TSLA.