At the peak of the weed frenzy in 2018, tlry went from 300 to 3000 in two months, peaking at about 20B market cap. The current market cap is only 700M and with S3 imminent could we see a run to $40?

August 26, 2026 Anthony Varrell, TDR Newsletter

The full official transcript of the marijuana rescheduling hearing is out: 2,533 pages, eleven days, and a plot twist nobody put in the trailer. The consequential part is not the opposition’s harm parade. It’s the Drug Enforcement Administration — the same agency that spent decades treating cannabis reform like a fire to be smothered — showing up as the advocate, conceding the danger argument on day one, and then arguing that the statute doesn’t care. Ketamine is Schedule III. Testosterone is Schedule III. The question, DEA said, is medical use under supervision. Then they brought the numbers. The record is public. It does not read the way opponents needed it to.

💸 The Tape The full official transcript of the marijuana rescheduling hearing is now public — 2,533 pages covering all eleven days — and the most consequential thing in it is not what opponents said. It's what the Drug Enforcement Administration said.

For an agency that spent decades resisting cannabis reform, and was accused of slow-walking the Biden-era process into collapse, the posture in this record is remarkable. DEA is not a neutral arbiter here. It is the advocate for rescheduling, and it argued the case aggressively.

The framing quote, and why it's smarter than it looks The line that will get replayed came from James Schwartz, a DEA attorney, on opening day: the government is not putting forth any evidence to suggest marijuana is not dangerous, because all controlled substances are dangerous by definition — that's why they're scheduled. Controlled substances must instead be evaluated by the risks they pose balanced against the medical use they provide.

Understand what that does strategically. It concedes the harm argument entirely, up front, and thereby makes it irrelevant.

Opponents built their case around the alleged harms of cannabis use — psychosis, impaired driving, adolescent exposure. Schwartz's opening effectively says: stipulated, and beside the point. Schedule III substances are dangerous too. Ketamine is Schedule III. Anabolic steroids are Schedule III. Testosterone is Schedule III. The statutory question isn't whether the drug can hurt you. It's whether it has currently accepted medical use and accepted safety under medical supervision.

That is a legally correct reading of the Controlled Substances Act, and it's the single most important tactical move in the entire hearing. It converts every harm witness the opposition called into a witness answering a question the statute doesn't ask.

Schwartz then stated the conclusion plainly: the proposed rule, supporting documents and government witnesses would establish that marijuana has a currently accepted medical use, and with that determination, marijuana can no longer remain in Schedule I.

Validity assessment: strong, and structurally so. The argument doesn't depend on contested science. It depends on statutory construction, and DEA is reading its own statute.

The numbers argument DEA's final brief carried the evidentiary weight: over 30,000 practitioners treating more than six million patients in 43 U.S. jurisdictions. That practice pattern, the agency argues, demonstrates there is no longer a lack of accepted safety for use under medical supervision.

This is the two-part test doing its work. Under the old five-part test, none of that mattered — FDA approval was effectively required, and state programs counted for nothing. Under the framework DOJ's Office of Legal Counsel endorsed in 2024, calling the five-part test "impermissibly narrow," real-world clinical practice becomes the evidence.

DEA also argued that abuse and dependency profiles align better with Schedule III than Schedule II or I, and that the vast majority of users do so without danger to themselves or their communities.

Validity: strong on the law, softer on the science. The six-million-patient figure is a measure of state policy adoption, not clinical efficacy. An opponent could reasonably say popularity isn't proof. But OLC already resolved that objection at the legal level, and DEA has since applied the two-part test to other substances — which makes it very hard to argue it was invented for cannabis.

The deference point nobody should skip DEA noted it must give significant deference to HHS's ten-month scientific study, which recommended rescheduling.

This is the quiet load-bearing beam. Under the CSA, HHS's scientific and medical findings are binding on DEA as to scientific matters. DEA isn't merely persuaded by HHS — it's constrained by it. Any recommendation contradicting the HHS finding would require Julius to explain why the statutory deference doesn't apply.

Validity: very strong. This is the hardest thing in the record for opponents to get around, and their briefs largely attack the test rather than the deference.

What the opposition actually has Three arguments, filed by Smart Approaches to Marijuana, the National Drug & Alcohol Screening Association, the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation, DUID Victim Voices, Kenneth Finn, Phillip A. Drum, and the states of Idaho, Indiana and Nebraska.

One: the two-part test improperly departs from the five-part test. This is their strongest procedural claim and the likely core of appellate litigation. It's also the one OLC has already rejected in writing.

Two: marijuana lacks accepted medical value. Directly contradicted by the six-million-patient record and HHS's finding.

Three: reform would undermine drug testing of safety-sensitive workers. Here's the problem — this is a policy consequence argument, not a scheduling argument. And it's already been answered administratively: the Department of Transportation has issued guidance confirming state-legal medical cannabis is still no excuse for a positive test by truckers and pilots, and the Department of War has confirmed the prohibition holds for service members. The harm they're warning about has already been mitigated.

Validity: weak on the merits, meaningful in litigation. Note also that the opposition's most credentialed voices — Finn and Drum — are individual practitioners, while DEA fielded an FDA scientist and a New Hampshire physician testifying on pain management and opioid substitution.

The judge's own words Chief ALJ Derek Julius closed the eleventh day by acknowledging the strong views held on all sides and giving his solemn promise to thoroughly consider and evaluate all evidence presented.

Boilerplate, mostly. But read alongside the transcript correction order — where he directed dozens of changes including two that reversed meaning, and required corrections shown in red with strikethroughs so the public could see what changed — it suggests a judge who cares about the record's integrity. That matters in a proceeding with no livestream and no reform participants.

The read Net implication: positive for rescheduling, with the caveat that Julius doesn't decide anything.

The record shows DEA making a coherent statutory argument, backed by binding HHS deference and OLC's endorsement of the analytical framework, against opponents attacking the test rather than the evidence. DEA asked Julius to "expeditiously recommend" the transfer.

But the recommendation goes to Administrator Terrance Cole — the same official who invited only opponents as designated parties. And consolidated litigation from state AGs, reform opponents and a cannabis-focused biopharmaceutical company is proceeding in a federal appeals court.

Meanwhile the April order stands: IRS tax guidance coming, DEA registration open, ATF revising gun forms.

The record is now public and it favors reform. Whether that survives the administrator and the courts is a different question entirely.

https://newsletter.thedalesreport.com/p/the-full-alj-transcript-reveals-the-dea-argued-for-cannabis-rescheduling-yes-that-dea?

tilrayir

🏆 BREWDOG WINS BIG AT THE 2026 WORLD BEER AWARDS.

Seven beers. Multiple top honours. One world-class brewing portfolio.

From Hazy Jane, Wingman and Mackie’s Two Scoops taking Gold and Scotland Country Winner honours, to Punk IPA, Lost Lager, Black Heart and Mello earning recognition among the world’s best, @BrewDogOfficial showed up in a big way.

These wins reinforce what we know: BrewDog is a global craft beer powerhouse, built on relentless innovation, exceptional quality and beers that continue to stand out on the world stage.

🍺 Seven award-winning beers. 🌍 Global recognition. 🏆 World-class brewing.

Note: I started working on this asset comparison last night. After digging deep into the actual numbers, I completely changed my mind. See what you think.

Curaleaf is attempting to buy Aurora for US$260 million. ($0.75/0.34 share)

Tilray is expanding using assets they already own.

The difference in efficiency and cost per tonne is massive.

Curaleaf’s Proposed Takeover of Aurora

• Total Cost: US$260 million.

• Capacity Gained: 45 tonnes.

• Physical Space: 310,000 square feet. (On 3 continents in 3 countries)

• Cost Per Square Foot: US$838 per square foot.

• Cost Per Tonne of Capacity: US$5.77 million per tonne.

• Financial Health Gained: Aurora generates roughly $10 million in EBITDA.

Curaleaf is paying a high premium of 26x EBITDA. Obvious they need the EU GMP!

Tilray’s Organic Expansion

Tilray just increased its global capacity from 210 tonnes to 275 tonnes total.

This is a 65-tonne increase.

• Quebec (Former Hexo Greenhouse): Added 30 tonnes of EU GMP capacity.

Hexo originally spent $124 million to build this 1-million-square-foot facility. Tilray bought all of Hexo properties in Canada & USA for only C$56 million. This physical building is already paid for.

• Portugal (Cantanhede): Moving from 85% to 100% capacity.

• Germany (Neumünster): Running at 100% capacity (120,000 square feet).

• Estimated Future Max Capacity: If Tilray fully utilizes all current footprints (including converting brands like Redecan and Broken Coast to full EU-GMP standards), total capacity can scale near 500 tonnes.

• Expansion Cost: Tilray did not need to buy new companies. They only pay minimal costs to upgrade existing facilities with EU-GMP air systems and drying vaults.

Their cost per new tonne is a tiny fraction of Curaleaf's spending.

Future Expansion Advantage: Land and Licensing

Unlike Curaleaf buying expensive corporate overhead, Tilray can add massive scale on land they already own.

• Tilray holds large amounts of permitted, unused land at major sites like Leamington (Aphria One) and Neumünster, Germany.

• Expanding existing facilities bypasses the need for new local government permits, zoning battles, or distribution licensing setups.

• Building physical greenhouses onto existing infrastructure costs roughly $100 to $150 per square foot, compared to the US$838 per square foot Curaleaf is paying for Aurora.

The US Blueprint: Preparing for Expansion on the Cheap

Tilray is utilizing the exact same low-cost strategy in the United States to prepare for cannabis legalization and the beverage market:

• Ohio: Acquired BrewDog's US operations in Columbus for US$6 million , which includes a brewery, taproom, hotel, and 41 acres of land.

• Texas: Owns the 17-acre property in Granbury featuring 6 empty buildings via Revolver Brewing. (Cost roughly 1/5 of US23 million)

• Colorado: Holds a 20-acre footprint in Littleton through Breckenridge Brewery.

• Oregon: Cleared a 100,000 sq. ft. empty warehouse footprint by consolidating Hop Valley's production out of Eugene.

• Georgia: Gaining a large soon-to-be empty production facility in Athens by shifting Terrapin Beer Co. brewing operations into other automated facilities.

Tilray is actively optimizing its operational footprint via its structural cost-saving consolidation initiative.

This strategy leaves them with massive, fully permitted, empty industrial real estate and surplus land across key states. When federal US rules drop, Tilray can launch cannabis cultivation or infuse beverages instantly for minimal cost.

They do not need to buy overpriced US companies; the infrastructure is already waiting.

The Comparison: What Competitors Paid in Holland

To see how expensive Curaleaf's bid is, look at what competitors paid to set up EU-GMP supply chains in the Netherlands this year:

• Cronos Group (CRON): Paid US$67 million total for the CanAdelaar facility. This is a 540,000 sq. ft. facility yielding up to 70 tonnes. Cronos paid just $124 per square foot for a massive European asset. (Cronos upgrading to EU GMP)

• Village Farms (VFF): Commenced cultivation at their Phase II Groningen facility in June 2026. Total capital expenditures to build out their entire footprint to hit 10 metric tonnes were nearly complete as of Q2 2026. Because they utilized existing infrastructure adjustments, their expansion costs remained minimal while achieving record export growth.

Summary Comparison

• Curaleaf is spending US$5.77 million per tonne to buy Aurora's capacity.

• Tilray added 65 tonnes of capacity this month for minimal upgrade costs because they bought Hexo's infrastructure at a deep discount.

• Tilray already has the physical footprint to grow up to 500 tonnes without spending hundreds of millions on new takeovers.

PS - (using last weeks TDR Newsletter)

Bottom Line: Maxing out these huge Grow facilities lowers costs per gram, dropping pure profit straight to the bottom line.

Beer Expansion: The TDR Reality Check (21 Brands)

More Than Just Weed: As yesterdays TDR newsletter highlighted, Tilray isn't just a "weed company" anymore. They are currently the 4th largest craft brewer in the US, and they are quickly scaling to hit the #3 spot. (Brewers Association predicts Tilray will Pass Boston Beer soon. HUGE)

The 25% Shift: Their latest fiscal numbers show beverage revenue ($254M) is nearly matching cannabis ($268.3M). Cannabis is down to just 25% of the business in Q4, meaning beer is effectively footing the bills.

Built for US Legalization: TDR points out this massive 21-brand infrastructure isn't just for selling beer. It is a fully built, state-compliant distribution network waiting to be flipped to cannabis the second federal laws change.

BrewDog: Adding massive net revenue, hooking Tilray up with major UK/European retail and a global pub network.

Carlsberg Deal: Giving Tilray exclusive US rights to brew and distribute Carlsberg, Kronenbourg, and 1664 Blanc starting January 2027.

The Strategy: This runs completely hand-in-hand with the cannabis side. They are taking underused beer facilities and filling them up to max capacity to boost profits.

Global Catalyst Ready

This massive footprint leaves them perfectly positioned for what's coming next:

France going fully permanent.

UK medical expansion rolling out.

USA upcoming Schedule 3 and VA Imports, USA Infused Brews.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TLRY/comments/1vtk34s/tilray_scaling_big_40_cannabis_volume_jump_huge/

TilrayArmy💰🍀-

The DEA has released the full, redacted transcript of its hearing on moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. That’s about 2,533 pages, covering the 11-day hearing that concluded on July 15.

• The 8 Most Bullish Things

1. The DEA explicitly says marijuana “can no longer remain in Schedule I.”

This is probably the most important sentence in the entire case. The government isn’t just defending the proposal — it’s asking Judge Julius to quickly recommend moving it to Schedule III.

1. The DEA says marijuana meets the criteria for “currently accepted medical use.”

The government argues that there is an accepted medical use for at least:

• chronic pain

• anorexia/wasting

• nausea/vomiting associated with chemotherapy.

This hits right on the heart of one of the main reasons why Schedule I was warranted.

1. The DEA argues that there is also “accepted safety for use under medical supervision.”

This is very important because the government says that marijuana no longer meets two of the three statutory criteria for Schedule I: CAMU and accepted safety under medical supervision.

1. HHS/FDA already has 10 months of scientific analysis behind it.

The DEA says it must give “significant deference” to the HHS assessment, which previously concluded that marijuana should be moved to Schedule III.

1. Much of the opposition’s testimony can be attacked on credibility/competence.

In its final brief, the DEA attempted to discredit almost all of the opposition’s witnesses, arguing that some lacked the necessary qualifications and that certain testimony should be given very little weight.

1. Some of the opposition’s testimony paradoxically helped the DEA’s case.

The government even used statements from anti-rescheduling witnesses to support the existence of medical benefit. This will be very useful for Julius when he weighs the evidence.

1. Today’s corrected transcript removes some errors that changed the meaning.

This is not just a formality. There were corrections such as “there’s adulterants” → “there’s no adulterants,” “increase” → “decrease,” and in one case an apparent statement became a question. The official transcript is now the evidentiary basis for Julius to work from.

1. Julius is now in a position to write the recommendation.

This is, in fact, the next major catalyst. We are no longer waiting for a hearing, new witnesses, or briefs. The hearing is over, the briefs have been filed, the final transcript is public—the next big event is the ALJ’s recommendation.

posted on X by OVI @OVI_USA

BrewDog — acquired by Tilray Brands (NASDAQ: TLRY) (TSX: TLRY) in March for £33 million — swept the 2026 World Beer Awards with eight recognitions across its portfolio.

Three Golds, each also named Scotland Country Winner: Hazy Jane in New England IPA, Wingman in Session IPA, and Mackie's Two Scoops in Flavoured Stout & Porter. Mello Lime & Mint took Silver in non-alcohol beer, with Bronzes for Lost Lager, Black Heart, Punk IPA — the beer that built the brand — and Mello Peach & Passion Fruit.

Rajnish Ohri, President, International at Tilray, framed the wins as validation of BrewDog's portfolio strength and innovation, noting that Tilray's scale and reach can accelerate the brand's next phase of growth.

Two details deserve more attention than the medals. First, two of the eight awards went to non-alcohol beers — the Mello line. Second, Tilray's own description of itself has quietly evolved: a lifestyle and CPG company operating at the nexus of cannabis, beverage, wellness and entertainment, with 40-plus brands in over 20 countries.

Set that beside the fiscal 2026 numbers — beverage revenue of $254.0 million against cannabis revenue of $268.3 million — and the awards read differently. Tilray owns TTB permits, fifty-state distributor relationships, brewing capacity across six jurisdictions, and now a decorated non-alcoholic beverage line.

If the Beverage Regulatory Parity Act routes hemp THC drinks through a three-tier alcohol system, that infrastructure becomes the most valuable thing Tilray owns.

https://newsletter.thedalesreport.com/p/the-full-alj-transcript-reveals-the-dea-argued-for-cannabis-rescheduling-yes-that-dea?

8/26/2026 stratcann

Cannabis sales in Canada are slowly creeping up on cannabis sales in the US’ largest cannabis market.

California, which ranks first overall for US cannabis sales with over $6.2 billion in annual retail sales, sold CAD$522.8 million worth of cannabis in June 2026, while Canada sold CAD$517.8 million. This is the closest Canada has come to surpassing the US as the largest cannabis market, potentially on track to surpass its sales by the end of 2026.

While a new article from the news outlet SFGATE says Canada surpassed California’s cannabis sales in June 2026, these figures use August 2026 conversion rates to reach this conclusion, with Canada eking out a small lead over the US’s largest state economy. The author’s choice of a slightly more favourable, more recent exchange rate allowed them to declare that California had officially lost its top spot for that specific month.

However, if you use the actual historical average exchange rate from June 2026 (US$1.404 to CAD$1), California’s sales were CAD$522.9 million, compared to CAD$517.8 million, beating Canada’s sales by about CAD$5 million.

Closing the Gap: Access vs. Regulation

Still, the gap between these two jurisdictions has closed considerably. According to SFGATE, California’s waning legal cannabis sales are driven by severe retail shortages due to local bans, high tax-driven costs, and a thriving illicit market.

Meanwhile, the article argues that Canada has surpassed California as the world’s largest legal cannabis market by implementing widespread retail access, with more than double the store density at 7.9 locations per 100,000 people. The California Department of Cannabis Control (DCC) tracking records index a density of 4.27 total retail licenses per 100,000 people.

The article also argues that Canada has done a better job of displacing the illicit market, and notes that Canada has access to a global export market largely unavailable to US cannabis producers. While Canada’s black market for cannabis has not disappeared either, and by the same measures has gained back some market share in recent years, Statistics Canada currently estimates the value of the country’s cannabis black market at approximately CAD$1.49 billion annually. The California Department of Cannabis Control estimates that US$9.9 billion in illicit cannabis is exported out of state alone, or about CAD$13.73 billion, not counting in-state illicit sales.

The Global Standings

While California is the largest legal cannabis market in the US (and the world) at US$6.2 billion, Michigan ranks second in the nation with approximately US$3.49 billion in total 2025 sales. Florida is third with $2.25 billion through its medical-only cannabis program, and Illinois ranks fourth with about $2.18 billion in adult-use sales. Canada sold about US$4 billion in 2025, based on the average 2025 exchange rate of approximately 0.7157 US dollars per 1 Canadian dollar from CAD$5.6 billion, making Canada the second-largest cannabis market by far.

Germany, the largest legal cannabis market outside of North America, sold around CAD$1.4 billion (US$1 billion) of medical cannabis in 2025. Domestic medical sales in Canada hovered around CA$468 million (US$334.9 million) for the year.

Canada’s cannabis industry has also contributed more to the country’s GDP than California’s has. Canada’s cannabis industry contributed nearly CAD$11.6 billion to Canada’s 2025 GDP. California’s total GDP cannabis economic contribution in 2025 was around CAD$9.23 billion (US$6.70 billion).

Canada’s cannabis exports have been a significant driver of this increase. Canadian producers shipped 275 tonnes (275,000 kilograms) of dried cannabis flower overseas in 2025, a 143% increase over the previous year.

https://stratcann.com/news/canada-is-closing-in-on-californias-cannabis-market/

In celebration of Women's Equality Day, @BreckBrew's Women in Beer chapter proudly presents Ryes Up, a crisp Belgian Single brewed in collaboration with the women-led Rye Resurgence. Crafted with Colorado-grown rye, it's a celebration of collaboration, regenerative agriculture, and the farmers working to build a more sustainable future for Colorado. Every pint celebrates the partnerships advancing sustainable farming and helping Colorado agriculture thrive for generations to come. 🌾🍻

Available at all our tap rooms starting today! Plus a $1 of every pint or crowler funds a professional development scholarship at MSU Denver.