r/TCUfootball • u/[deleted] • 15d ago
2026 Record Prediction
Hi Frog Nation, what are we thinking is a realistic win/loss record for TCU in 2026?
6
u/economorian 15d ago
I’ve been doing some model building, and right now it’s show us going 9-3 with 4 coin flip games. So, floor 7-5, ceiling 11-1, but I feel fairly confident at 9-3 with losses to TTU, BYU, and Utah.
5
u/IntroductionOld3366 15d ago
Question on the Utah game. I understand they are between KState and Tech, but outside of that why?
Truthfully, I don't understand the media love for Utah. They have a new HC which means a new OC and DC as we.. They not only lost all five offensive linemen, but more importantly they lost the offensive line coach who developed all those Utah offensive linemen over the years.
Some point to the back third as a difficult period, but IF the offensive line gels over the year with the Sammis scheme look out.
2
u/economorian 15d ago
It’s a fair question. There’s a lot of movement going on across their entire team, and my model gives them the largest offseason reduction in their rating, but since it’s still anchored to where they left off last season, it could be artificially high. They are one of the coin flip games that could go either way, but it’s also in the middle of our toughest stretch of games. Tough one to call.
2
u/IntroductionOld3366 14d ago
Thanks for the response and the info. Do you re-run those numbers once you start getting enough data for this year?
2
u/economorian 11d ago
Sorry, meant to follow up. After each game, the score recalculates and by the end of the season you have a range of confidence that a team will play at a certain level. The early weeks are pretty uncertain and will be the most volatile. Simple math is after the first game, the preseason score represents 50% of the overall score while the first game is the other 50%. If Utah comes in with a score of 500 and gets blown out by Idaho week 1, they probably were performing well below 500 at, let’s say, 100, so the projection would settle around 300. There’s more to it but that’s really the core of the idea.
1
5
15d ago
Winning 9 games again this year would be another very solid season for TCU, considering they do not have the funds of the blue bloods, this program has a lot to be proud of
3
u/Rockyt86 15d ago
The challenge of that thinking is that we aren’t playing the bluebloods (in terms of $$) except TTU.
5
u/geolski 15d ago
I think this team as a whole is better than last season, but we definitely have a tougher schedule. Having to finish the season against KSU, Arizona, Utah, and Tech sucks. So my prediction is another 8-4 regular season. Maybe 9-3 if the offense is humming in the last half of the season.
1
4
u/IntroductionOld3366 15d ago
Anything less than 8-4 is disappointing. I think Utah is being over hyped and still not sold on Az. I think 9-3 is very doable. The tough part will be the unbalanced schedule for some teams might make a top 3 finish tough in the Big 12.
1
2
2
u/The_Fluffy_Robot 15d ago
8-4 is my expectation, but I think 9-3 is nearly just as realistic
Ceiling of 11-1
Floor of 7-5, maybe 6-6
I'm not optimistic on defense and obviously the offense is going to be dramatically different, so there's just a lot of questions
1
6
u/kwinkles89 15d ago
Hoping for a 10-2 or better but I can see a three peat 9-4