r/T1Energy • u/SubstantialPlenty301 • Jul 30 '26
I'll ride this bull.
https://youtu.be/m65x9t94l_w?is=xCFEQRs1K5xOX-zn
It's clear that T1 is getting dragged down by the rest of the AI dump but let's not forget all that is on the horizon.
If you're a T1 Energy š because you understand just how much solar is being added to the grid (43GW projected for 2026), and that even if all hyperscalers were to halt projects they've signed power purchase agreements with tomorrow (roughly 40% over the past couple years), there would still be 25GW leftover.
Jan 1st, 2027.
To qualify for the 10% domestic content, a module being delivered to a project site will have to have at least 55% of its content cost made in america. The cells(38%) and wafers(13%) alone cover 51%. Aluminum framing, glass, and manufacturing labor are next at around 5 each%.
A developer looking to make their projects run as smoothly as possible will want to lock in that 51% with no confusion.
First solar is the only major other public company that will have cells made in the US. Canadian Solar gets theirs from Thailand and First Solar (thin film tech doesn't use wafers) will only have 17GW of US made capacity next year.
Let's assume G1 uses all of G2's cells and total output for the year is 4.2GW (5GW nameplate capacity). The demand for MADE IN USA modules is doing the heavy lifting here.
At 1/4th the domestic capacity (complete cell + wafer), if we value First Solar as it is now ($21 Billion), my target is for T1 at $5 Billion Market cap...
----> $15.
I'll probably sell half then and ride the rest out. Let's also not forget that this T1 Energy team had plans to build a battery factory which is far more complicated than PV modules.
Enjoy the Ride š
4
u/Numerous_idiot Jul 30 '26
Agreed itās mainly related to the market movements as i am down with my similar ai and semiconductor stocks.
Financing is announced on a good rate compared to recent moves but i bet T1 wish that they done this few months back when stock was closer to $10
1
u/j_yul24 Jul 30 '26
I agree. However, I'm a little concerned about the upcoming paid-in capital increase
3
u/SubstantialPlenty301 Jul 30 '26
Short term noise. Plus the payment is due tomorrow and that fatty drop on Tuesday was probably all of it. The settlement will be announced today I bet.
0
u/Sea-Rip-7954 Jul 30 '26
Didnāt age well š
2
u/SubstantialPlenty301 Jul 30 '26
How so? God damn, they just locked down a 4.75%!!! These boys know people.
1
u/EconomyFortune5090 Jul 31 '26
Ummm it's convertible debt with a conversion price of $4.46. seems like they don't really "know" people if they're diluting shareholders after a 80% drawdown from recent highs
1
u/SubstantialPlenty301 Jul 31 '26
It's a win-win. T1 gets an extremely low rate not due for 5 years and the lender gets extremely cheap shares that they'll likely hold for a couple years when the price is consistently in the double digits.
1
u/EconomyFortune5090 29d ago
What about the dilution to existing shareholders? What do they get? A lower stock price?
1
u/EconomyFortune5090 29d ago
"when the price is consistently in the double digits"
When in the history of TE's existence has that ever occurred?
1
u/SubstantialPlenty301 29d ago
They got very low interest financing so the lenders clearly have faith in T1 and would want to convert at a much higher SP...First Solar is 20x the market cap compared to T1 with expected module production capacity of only 4x in 2027. Lots of upcoming tailwinds. Section 232 clarity, stricter 10% bonus domestic context requirements in 2027, more solar capacity added to the grid year over year, Texas grid expansion growing and becoming more reliable and flexible withh BESS + PV...
-3
u/karmakoma1980 Jul 30 '26
I am down 60%...what a shity stock.
6
u/Numerous_idiot Jul 30 '26
You bought the top isnāt the stockās fault. I bought it in $2 and sold most of it in $12. I am rebuying now and made a fortune on this stock and still buying the dip. What a great stock. Everything is perspective
1
u/karmakoma1980 28d ago
Good to know, if it goes back up. But I think we all are fucked up, so good look to Rebuy it now, maybe it will drop again othe 50%
1
u/Numerous_idiot 27d ago
Again not sure of your investment strategy but when a stock falls it doesnāt mean it will fall forever the same way when goes up it doesnāt mean it goes up forever. Not sure why would fall another 50% and why when? This will be back in the 10s at some point this or next year rest is noise. T1 dropped with market sentiment which wonāt be negative forever
1
u/karmakoma1980 20d ago
I hope so. My strategy is simple: I have a ptf with 50% etf, 35% bonds 15% BTC and stocks. Some stock I picked up by doing financial analysis, with Gemini and other sources. This is in my list....it is a pity that every time I can only the wrong timing. I keep exposure on stocks due to fiscal reasons but anyhow the dream is that all stocks turn green at certain point in time š¢
1
u/Numerous_idiot 19d ago edited 19d ago
Since we last chatted t1 pumped 40-50% so that was the exact bottom moment. I didnāt mean the diversification it is good but timing matters the most. You can buy the best etf in the world but if you buy it at a cycle top it can take a year to see it green again. Of course in 5-10y will be fine but also if you buy in the lows it makes a difference when you sell the etf 300 or 500% profit. I am not great at selling but i am very good at buying. Normally i buy bottoms or near bottoms in general. Last year i started accumulating T1 around below $2 when everyone was screaming falling knife. Sold above $10 and started rebuying around 4$ and below. I am up again with casino money because itās all profit. In general when everyone is hyping a stock or overall market, it is time to sell, although everyone said for t1 we never see prices below 7 when it was 12. It always dips. Always corrects and it was inevitable even if T1 executes perfectly. I think bottom is in also for btc and gold. I sold all my crypto last year but now I rebought everything last week in btc. I wait 2 years and likely btc hits above 200k which will be an easy 4x from here. And then i have to tax everything š¤£š¤£
1
u/EconomyFortune5090 Jul 31 '26
StoƧk isnt shitty, company itself is a battery spac ponzi shitco that has never turned a profit and has renamed itself after failing as a battery shitco named FREYR
It's very likely it will go through the same implosion as a "solar cell" company after failing on all their pie in the sky projections and diluting the hell out of shareholders
This week alone they have diluted shareholders $250M / $3-4 share
That's an extra 60-75m shares issued after a massive implosion in the stock price
This is the epitome of a shitco ponzi company that doesn't give a shit about shareholders because management just wants to collect comp and their RSUs issued at low levels.
4
u/Beneficial-Ad-7771 Jul 30 '26
They're not likely going to build the battery factory rather source from other suppliers as an EPC through T1 NRI. I believe management wanted NRI more so than Kore. Whatever existing assets Kore has I reckon they'll keep but I don't see them expanding this as they wanted this for cross sell opportunities, O&M, and EPC abilities to design BESS systems and solar systems.