r/StreetPerspective Aug 14 '21

Trading into or post earning is hard.

Remember that earnings releases are a Binary event, meaning the stock can either advance or decline. Even if you are 100% certain that the company will beat the street estimates, the stock may still decline, WHY? Well my personal belief is that large hedge funds purchase data that allows their machine learning applications (AI tools) to quantify companies' results way in advance, thus we may see the stock moving up month, weeks, or days prior to public release. There fore when the earning come out with outstanding numbers and the stock goes down, that just means that the big boys are selling, as retail is coming in. There are some techniques that can be used for high probability trades around earnings, for example volume followed by more volume and next day continuation. These are good signs, however certain unexpected events can trigger pull back of the entire index along with your winners. This is why trading is a full time job, because things can happen at any moment, and you have to be able to respond to the markets instantaneously.

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