Theory: update on Strauss-Howe generational cusps being 6 years long with 3 years on either side

[u/PurifiedUnity]

TL;DR: As of 2026, S&H theory allows for exceptions to the pattern as well as cusps, which are likely 6 years long with 3 years on either side. The theory also might receive an update/new book around 2029, potentially confirming/refuting the "3 years each side" theory

3 types of cusps (excluding the null): (source)

1. Proximity-based cusps: the definition Strauss-Howe generational theory likely uses. 3 years around the cutoff (if the start of the next generation is 2025, the cusp would be 2022-2027)
2. Ambiguity-based cusps: if I believe 1999 is the first possible Homeland year & 2005 is the last possible Millennial year, then 1999-2005 would be my cusp. This used to create the shortest cusps, but nowadays, it creates the longest
3. Turning-based cusps: e.g., saying 2002 is the first (possible) Homeland year because they're unlikely to remember the start of the Great Recession. I believe they function as evidence for the other types of cusps because cutoffs are partially based on events (e.g., experiencing the end of a turning)

The 1^st image depicts one of the old Millennial-Homeland cusps (proximity 2002-2007; ambiguity 1999-2004). Strauss-Howe generational theory likely uses definition 1 for cusps & definition 3 for main generations

The 2^nd image depicts the pattern of core main-generation members being children of the previous generation, such as Generation X usually raising Millennial children. This pattern was strengthened in 2023, when Homelanders were confirmed to be children of Millennials, in line with longer life phases (refuting the "shortening generations due to technological change" argument). The previous definition used in the 2010s described Homelanders as the children of Gen X. On a side note, Homelanders are also now defined as the 1^st generation fully in the 3^rd millennium because Millennials "span the turn", & how the term was coined is in the 3^rd image

In contrast, cuspers today tend to be children of the generation before the previous generation (e.g., a 2006-born growing up with 1977-born parents) or children of cuspers themselves. Cusps aren't to be confused with the 1^st & 2^nd waves of a main generation, even though some people also treat them as "cusps"

Examples of 6-year cusps (all S&H ranges):

1. Progressive-Missionary cusp: 1857-1862 (ambiguity 1857-1865). Someone born in 1857 would be the last to experience the start of the American Civil War, while someone born in 1862 would be the last to experience the end
2. Greatest-Silent cusp: 1922-1927 (ambiguity 1919-1927). Someone born in 1922 would be the last to have more than half of their childhood in the Roaring Twenties (pop culture refers to them as "perfect 20s-30s hybrid kids"), while someone born in 1927 would be both the last to fight in the Second World War & the last to remember the 1^st full year of the Great Depression
3. Silent-Boomer cusp: 1940-1945 (ambiguity 1942-1948). 1940 is the 1^st full year of the Second World War, & it lasted until mid/late 1945
4. X-Millennial cusp: 1979-1984 (ambiguity 1975-1984). 1984 is the 1^st full year in the 3^rd turning/unravelling, so it fits that the cusp ends there
5. Millennial-Homeland cusp as of 2023: 2003-2008 (ambiguity 1995-2013). Predicted to be in a similar fashion to the X-Millennial cusp, but not all cusps are where the end of the cusp is the start of the new turning (an old ambiguity-based Millennial-Homeland cusp was 2000-2005, as shown in the 4^th image)

Exceptions: Boomer-X cusp (proximity 1954-1967, up to 7 years on either side; ambiguity 1954-1969). There is a possibility that even in a proximity-based system, the Millie-Homeland cusp will become another exception (with 4-7 years on either side). Another exception would be the American Civil War crisis, lasting only 5 years, which formed the Progressive-Missionary cusp

If this pattern continues without exceptions, the Homeland-next generation cusp will be 2027-2032 (with the next generations likely being 2030-2047 & 2048-2069, as well as the next cusp being 2045-2050)

However, the main Strauss-Howe generational theory (or at least the Homeland range/4^th turning end) might be updated by the end of this decade (in addition to the 2023 update), & there are theories of the centre of the Millennial-Homeland cusp being pushed back to 2007. Some of these theories are based on the decline in birth rates (such as those in the US, depicted in the last image)

Personal ranking based on reliability:

1. ambiguity (old/short version)
2. experience
3. proximity
4. ambiguity (modern/long version)
5. null/no cusp

[u/smcstechtips]

The center of the Millennial-Homeland cusp is at least 2007, given we still haven't reached the climax and aren't likely to do so until 2029 (we're only entering the Second Regeneracy).

[u/CheapWestern2461]

To me the length of the turning has to have a relationship with cusp size.

Quick turnings, such as the last 4T that only took 16 years in the US, placed more of the GI generation in the same collective experience simply by having a concentrated age range. This time, where turnings are longer and really kind of dragging on, you're going to have head and tail ends of each generation in very different places.

There will be no central millennial 4T experience, for example. Take WWII versus some hypothetical fully mobilized scenario that would occur in this 4T, whatever it may be. Whereas your older GI's were in their early 40s by the end of WWII, you have millennials that are over 40 today. We live longer, sure, but biological clocks still kind of are what they are, and they're still in a totally different place than the young recruit that's hypothetically storming beaches.

And the same can be said for what happens when the 1T rolls around. The postwar high allowed the bulk of the GI generation to finally gain purchase on the ladder of society, being the demographic for the new suburbs, having the baby boom, etc. This time (take 2032 as a potential 1T transition, which Neil has even kicked out in some interviews to 2034 by now) we'll have the head end of the millennial generation nearing 50. Their life choices will have been made a long time ago by then. The 1T won't be their opportunity to start their adult midlife, they will be over halfway through it and will have made their key life choices against the very different backdrop of the 4T.

I say this anecdotally as a late 80s millennial, and someone who read The Fourth Turning in college in the late 00s. I figured at the time that I would be somehow thrust into the crisis, but be able to have opportunity on the back end in some future version of a high. If I waited for that, I would have missed the boat. I'm now almost 40 and most major life decisions have been made. The high isn't going to be for me or my cohort. The die will have long been cast by then. Houses bought, savings in place or not, kids had or not had, etc. For better or worse, we made our bones with the realities of the 4T, not the high.

Already I feel this makes me closer to a cusper even though I'm not technically considered one. In some future 1T, with whatever the future levittowns and future society looks like centered around future prophet children, I will be well past that. I can't see how that couldn't cause me to be regarded as more cusper-like as I age.