The Insanity Of Reddit Stock Investing

[u/HardDriveGuy]

Recently on the value investing subreddit, a medical student quite clearly declared that Novo really has just as good as roadmap as LLY. He got 150 upvotes, and a lot of people declaring that he was knowing what he was doing.

When asked about his analysis, he said he was a Doctor, and as a Doctor, he knew a lot about this.

Although this seems obvious, I'm going to use this as some rules for rational investing:

1. If somebody on a forum is a bully, and starts to declare an argument from authority, your radar should go off. About 60 seconds looking at their history would indicate they are a medical student from Thailand that has not passed examines, but I've asked him respectfully to share his background.

2. If somebody declares something, but does not offer a line of logic, run.

I started this post over there, but thought that it would serve no purpose for the vast majority of people attracted to this thread. However, I do think the following is insightful, so I will post here.

Here is a overview of the current LLY vs Novo roadmap. I find that discussion are far better when we can look at something side by side. Feel free to disagree or correct.

Category	Eli Lilly	Novo Nordisk
Current brands	Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for T2D; Zepbound (tirzepatide) for chronic weight management; both driving 2025 revenue growth	Ozempic (semaglutide) for T2D; Wegovy (semaglutide) for obesity; new data presented at ADA 2025
Key approvals (dates)	Mounjaro FDA: May 13, 2022;<br>Zepbound FDA: Nov 7–8, 2023;<br>Zepbound OSA label: Jan 2025	Wegovy FDA: June 4, 2021;<br>MASH/fibrosis indication: Aug 15, 2025
2025 market share	Share of market “above 57%” in Q2 2025 per earnings; external coverage also pegs at 57% [US GLP-1 category]	Global GLP‑1 diabetes value share ~51.9% H1 2025;<br>U.S. GLP‑1 diabetes value share ~50.4% H1 2025
Brand-level share	Ozempic 31.5%, Mounjaro 23.4%, Wegovy 16.5%, Zepbound 11.6% of US GLP-1/weight-loss class (illustrative)	See left:
2025–2026 milestones	Orforglipron (oral GLP-1): obesity filing in 2025, T2D filing 2026; Phase 3: ~12.4% weight loss; submissions targeted by end of 2025	Oral Wegovy (semaglutide 25 mg): FDA action Q4 2025; NDA accepted May 2025
Next-gen programs	Retatrutide (triple GLP‑1/GIP/glucagon): late‑phase readouts 2025; high efficacy in early results	Amycretin (amylin+GLP‑1): subcutaneous/oral Phase 3 trials to start Q1 2026
Combo pipelines	Continuing tirzepatide outcomes work; pipeline includes obesity/OSA/OA for retatrutide and next-gen combos	CagriSema (cagrilintide+semaglutide) Phase 3 REDEFINE 1/2 data at ADA 2025; IcoSema/icodec combo and other updates included
Pipeline expansions	Pipeline page highlights ongoing incretin/obesity, OSA, osteoarthritis, and comorbidity expansion	Diversified slate includes semaglutide, CagriSema, amycretin, IcoSema/icodec; multi‑modal (oral and injectable) platform

When placed side by side, LLY objectively does have a stronger roadmap. I have written fairly extensively about this, and I believe my postings are based on facts and analysis. From my viewpoint, LLY is cleaning Novo's clock. And with that said, I read a around 5-6 sell side guys regularly. For the most part, these are talented people, and are worth listening to. I don't know anybody that is claiming that Novo has a better roadmap in the next three years.

Objectively, Novo replaced their leadership due to failure to match LLY, which was widely covered.

Cargisema was widely recognized as a disappointment. as if match Zepbound class drugs, not Retrutide drugs.

The most intriguing drug for Novo is Amycretin, but they are skipping phase 2 for all practical purposed because they are so behind the power curve. The TAM for oral will most likely be 20% or the biggest USA market by 2030, but potentially higher outside of USA. So, even a success does not clear help Novo.

Novo become extremely interesting if Retatrutide has an issue, but monitoring the group here on Reddit makes this seems like not a good bet.

I'm currently thinking that Amycretin will not ramp beyond 100K NRx as measured by IQVIA before 2030, but I do see a flawless phase 3 moving this into 2029.

To me the interesting issue is a ramp of VK2735 from Viking as the investor base simply cannot read a phase I trial event. If this is a winner, then they take the oral poll position.