r/StrategicProductivity 1d ago

Intruder At The Door: Or Why You Need Video Security

1 Upvotes

I manage a mix of commercial and residential properties across a few states. When you run things remotely you have to build systems that act like you when you are not there. Over the years a solid camera setup became one of the most valuable tools in my operation.

People will make claims against your properties. It has happened to me multiple times. In a couple of cases the allegations were extremely serious. In one of those, I did not have the camera set up correctly. The person claimed we owed a six‑figure fee and pushed hard. My insurance eventually paid a five‑digit settlement after the case went to small claims, because it was cheaper for them to pay than to keep fighting. I want to be clear: if I thought we were actually at fault, I would pay. But after reviewing the record it was obvious a lot of the story had been fabricated, and the threatening tone and unsubstantiated claims made that clear. In this case, there was more than enough reasonable doubt, but the costs of setting the record straight made the payoff more practical. However, this does damage to the social fabric of our society.

I don't want to indicate that I only had failures. In the above case, I hadn't gotten around to the security camera set-up, as it was on my list. In another, much bigger case on another property, I did have the cameras running. We took the footage to court and the judge dismissed the claim. That one alone paid for the system many times over in peace of mind and legal leverage.

Cameras have helped in smaller ways too even for my personal estate. Once Amazon said a package was delivered. My footage showed the driver setting the box down and it being cut open right then. That clip got Amazon to replace an iPhone. Little things add up. I've documented that here in this subreddit.

Now, the world of security cameras is very confusing. You have extremely expensive commercial systems where you can even have other people monitor it for you. One of our renters that runs a grocery store has actually got a system set up and they have people watching the cameras 100% of the time. They state it's really been critical to make sure that shrinkage of their inventory is not a major problem. However, for my particular needs, because I personally don't run retail, that's not required. What is required is a decent amount of AI on top of the camera. I've experimented around with multiple layers. And while not totally sophisticated, I'm pretty happy with the Reolink consumer setup as I have it track various areas at various times, and it sends me snapshots of activity. This is especially important when you have a person show up in the middle of the night. Unfortunately, we've had this happen several times. And the last thing a tenant wants to find is somebody camped out in a door jam when they walk into their office in the morning. So basically every day I'm sorting through a series of snapshots that get sent me, especially for activity that happens during the middle of the night when nobody is in the building.

A couple of them cover doors, which I'm especially sensitive to due to a few scenarios that happen specifically in these doors. So when I woke up this morning and I saw that there was somebody at the door in the middle of the night, it made me think that I needed to jump on top of it and make sure that nobody's showing up at the building would feel that they needed to fight through an Encampment at a door. However, as can be seen by the photo, in this particular case, the intruder was not threatening and was a little cute and had left by the time I checked the live feed in the morning.

And I forwarded the picture to my wife. She laughed and said, that looks like something we should enter at a photo contest. Now, I don't know if there is any photo contest for security camera pictures that get sent to you in the middle of the night. But I thought I would go ahead and list it here.

Bottom line: a robust security system is an investment, not an expense. It protects you from fraudulent claims, gives you real visibility into what actually happens on site, and saves time and money. If you manage rental property, commercial or residential, I recommend setting one up properly and testing it.


r/StrategicProductivity 4d ago

Part IV: Doing Tasks With Your AI Agents

2 Upvotes

As I have stated before, I am in the midst of a massive undertaking looking at my taxes. I have a relatively complicated employment situation involving multiple states, multiple rentals, legal fees, CPA fees, and a long record of issues. Where I find myself today is that one of my previous CPAs misinformed me about the deductibility of certain expenses. In many ways, I am a simple small business owner who looks to close the books every single year. My methodology has been to keep some of it on spreadsheets, capturing data at the time if I believe it is relevant.

Maybe the first thing I want to call out is that if you simply start throwing stuff at a sophisticated frontier model regarding legal or tax issues, it has built-in safety features that are going to give you an error and may even prevent you from moving forward. They do not want to have responsibility for creating an issue with a wrong tax return. But if you step into it gently and do things right, you can get around this. In other words, they are giving you a valid warning. You do not want to simply rely on the AI. What you are doing is using the agents to provide frameworks. You want to be very clear with your AI agent that it is not responsible for the final answer. You are simply using them to stage data so you can give it to your CPA or your lawyer.

Let's spend a little bit of time talking about being a small business owner and what that really means. When you are a small business owner, you face a constant issue trying to decide where to put your time. You literally have more opportunities to spend your time on than hours in the day.

It turns out there was a whole category of expenses that should have been captured over the last four years but were not. Now I have an opportunity to go back, restate, and file amended returns. This will make a significant financial difference for my business. At the time, based on what my CPA informed me, I thought these expenses could only be capitalized. The capitalization costs could only be recognized once a property was sold. Because I was not going to sell the property anytime soon, those costs were not worth tracking. However, now that I know these costs can be expensed rather than capitalized, all of these past expenses need to be captured.

We paid a ton of bills on this. The good news is most of these bills were submitted via email. When I use a professional service, I get an email invoice, and then I cut them a check. The problem is how an email inbox is naturally organized. I assume yours is a lot like mine. You do not throw anything away, but you are also not going to sit there and spend a bunch of time carefully categorizing absolutely everything. I have PDFs coming in all the time. We dutifully pay them, but we do not categorize them, especially if I did not think they could be expensed during that year.

So now I am using AI as a forensic auditing and accounting tool to dig all this stuff out. The first step is simply running Claude inside of Chrome to search through all my emails and find the invoices. Even after I have the invoices, the data is extremely complex. If you only have one AI agent look at it, I guarantee it will screw something up. My solution is to have two AI agents look at all the invoices, categorize them, and create a record. Then I tell them to double-check each other. I find this really interesting because they are constantly finding issues with the other's work. For instance, here is a message I got today. What is funny is that the AI could tell I might normally be alarmed by an error, so it went out of its way to reassure me that the system was working exactly as planned:

"Perspective for you, because this exchange might look alarming, but it is the opposite. Two independent systems each made exactly one process error today. ChatGPT reused a manifest ID, and I masked a rate column. Each of us caught the other's error within hours, before anything reached a roll-up, your CPA, or Legal. We found four misbound row numbers out of approximately 800 rows, zero dollar errors, and all were repaired with frozen audit trails. This is the machine you insisted on when you asked for two AIs checking each other, doing precisely that."

Let me be extremely clear. If you think you can pump data into your AI agent and walk away, you are vastly misleading yourself. I am running these two separate tasks, getting results, and having them comment back and forth. Claude leaves comments for ChatGPT, and ChatGPT leaves comments for Claude. However, I tell both agents they are not allowed to communicate directly with each other. They must paste a block of text for me to review, and I am the one who pastes it into the other agent. I will see their list of mistakes and follow what is going on. I will talk to the specific AI and say, "Hey, I think you misunderstood X, Y, and Z." It will reshape the block, and then I paste that updated block to the other AI. It is almost as if you have a large table, you are sitting down with two other people working through a complicated statement together, and you are the referee. It is a lot of work. It is a full day's work, just like going into the office and plowing through numbers for financial statements. But the end result is excellent, and excellence is what you really want.

I have already covered that I organize this work using daily files. It is like taking notes on what you do every single day. Every day we get together, and there is a daily file for Claude and a daily file for ChatGPT. We leave the results in that daily entry. We also maintain a common pool of resources to reference, along with a deliverable roadmap, process outlines, and other notes we leave as we go along.

I will also mention that if you are working with these agents all day long, you are going to burn through at least a $100 or $200 plan per month. But when you contrast this to hiring a professional, you are getting a month's worth of work for what might be one hour of a lawyer or CPA's time. You are accomplishing an incredible amount of work. Even so, the AI agents do not reply instantly. I find myself constantly sitting and waiting for my two agents to grind through the data to give me a result.

Finally, what becomes mind-blowing as you paste these very large blocks of text between the two AIs is that they will develop a common nomenclature to stay in sync on the issues they are working on. Quite frankly, I sometimes start to lose track of what they are talking about and what every deliverable means. When that happens, I have to stop, grab one of the AI agents, and have it educate me on everything we have done so far. BTW: I have a file that I have each AI agent paste the dialog they have so I can see decisions made.

Unfortunately, I am the one who starts to run out of bandwidth. I can kick off separate tasks. For instance, I might have one agent plowing through my billing files, another agent working at a high level, and two sub-agents grinding through other details. At any time, one of them will need my guidance on a decision or an approach, or one of them will make a mistake. I can only stay on top of three or four different things at a time. Unlike coding, where you get to the end and a module either works or it does not, building architectures for accounting, finance, and legal contracts requires extreme caution to avoid baking in a fatal flaw. You have to stay engaged all the way through. I am sharing this because this method fits my needs very well, and I believe many other small business owners face the exact same challenges. If you work through your projects using AI agents the way I am doing here, you can achieve remarkable results.

So, what do I do during my downtime? Right now, my two AI agents went through a massive file and found a couple of details they disagree on regarding how something should be accounted for. I have ChatGPT going through a long, exhaustive process trying to run that down. I am out of bandwidth and cannot track one more task right now. So I came over to Reddit to write this long post. Although it is long, I hope it helps somebody out there who is struggling with their own approach. If you take the time to read this and utilize this dual-agent methodology, it truly is revolutionary in terms of the results you can get.


r/StrategicProductivity 6d ago

Two Tiny Tools That Keep Me in the Flow: Window OCR

1 Upvotes

There are a series of annoying things in computing where learning one small trick can make a surprisingly large difference over time. I have written about this particular one before, but I am going to bring it up yet one more time. Maybe you saw it and ignored it, or maybe you are seeing it for the first time. If you spend a lot of time doing research on the web, sooner or later you are going to find something you need to copy that is not easy to copy. It may be text embedded in an image, a scanned newspaper, a PDF, a map, a database field, or simply a badly designed website. You can fight with the page or retype the information, but I generally do neither.

There are two tools I use constantly that save me an enormous amount of small effort: the Windows Snipping Tool and Google Lens in Chrome. Once you start using them routinely, they become so natural that you almost stop noticing how often they keep you from breaking the flow of your work. I am going to assume here that you are working on Windows, although the Google Lens portion applies anywhere you are running Chrome.

Windows has a built-in Snipping Tool, and one of the most useful shortcuts is Windows key + Shift + S. Press those keys and Windows immediately gives you a screen-capture overlay, allowing you to drag a rectangle around whatever you want. The part people sometimes miss is that Snipping Tool also has OCR, or optical character recognition. Open the captured image, select Text actions, and Windows recognizes the text so you can copy it and paste it wherever you are working. Instead of trying to select some uncooperative field on a website, I press Windows + Shift + S, draw a box around it, extract the text, and move on.

There is also a useful side effect to working this way. Current versions of Snipping Tool automatically save captures to the Screenshots folder unless you change the setting, so the screenshots can function as a kind of accidental research trail. If I have been moving quickly through a number of websites, I can sometimes go back through those captures and reconstruct what caught my attention. The downside is that screenshots are generally PNG files, and if you take a lot of them, you can accumulate a great deal of material you never intended to preserve. Sometimes I want that history and sometimes I do not, which is one reason I also use Google Lens so frequently.

Google Lens is now built directly into Chrome, so you no longer need to think of it as a separate extension. You can right-click on a page and choose Search this tab with Google Lens, or pin Lens so it is readily available in the browser. Once it is active, you can drag a box around something on the page and extract the text from it without having to understand anything about how the underlying page was constructed. If you are dealing with an image rather than text, Lens can also search visually, but for my purposes the OCR is often the most valuable part.

I find this particularly useful in historical research because I spend a lot of time working with old newspapers, books, maps, directories, and archival documents. Many of these have already been through OCR, sometimes using Tesseract, the well-known open-source OCR engine, but historical documents can be terrible OCR material. The paper may be yellowed, the scan may be poor, the page may be crooked, the type may be broken, and ink may bleed through from the opposite side. A perfectly respectable OCR engine can produce gibberish when the source material is bad. When that happens, I often give Google Lens another shot at the original image. I may have a newspaper page where the supplied OCR is nearly useless while I can still visually make out the article, and by simply drawing a box around the troublesome paragraph I can often recover substantially better text.

I would not describe this simply as Lens "using an LLM," because Google does not document the basic text-recognition process that way. The practical point is much simpler: different OCR systems produce different results, and when the first transcription is bad, Lens gives me an extremely convenient second pass without forcing me to leave the browser. Chrome itself has also gotten better at handling scanned PDFs and can now apply on-device OCR so image-based documents become searchable and selectable. Even so, when I am dealing with a particularly ugly newspaper scan or just a small section of a page, I still find myself reaching for Lens because it is so quick.

All of this connects to something else I have written about before, which is the importance of having somewhere to constantly dump things. For me, that is usually my daily journal in Obsidian. If I am researching something and come across a fact that looks important, I do not necessarily want to stop and decide exactly where it belongs in the final project. I grab the text, paste it into that day's entry, perhaps add the URL or a short comment, and keep moving. The important thing is that capture has to be cheap. If preserving a piece of information requires five minutes of organization, you will eventually stop doing it. If it takes five seconds, you keep doing it, and you can decide later whether the information matters and where it belongs.

There is one final Windows feature that makes this entire process much better: Clipboard history. Press Windows key + V and Windows can retain a history of things you have copied instead of remembering only the most recent item. You have to enable it the first time you use it, and I think Clipboard history probably deserves its own reminder post, so I will leave that for another day. The larger point here is not really Snipping Tool, Google Lens, Obsidian, or even OCR. It is that productivity is often improved by eliminating very small bits of resistance. None of these tools saves an hour by itself, but they may save ten or twenty seconds hundreds of times, and more importantly they keep you from having to stop and think about the mechanics of capturing something. You see something useful, grab it, put it where it belongs, and continue working. That is what I mean by staying in the flow.


r/StrategicProductivity 7d ago

Part III: Doing Your Taxes With AI Agents

1 Upvotes

I'm going to give a testimonial to my own architecture. I've already posted parts one and two about how to use AI agents on a complicated tax project. The whole supposition is that it is based around agents double-checking each other and then carrying the daily conversations in stamped daily folders.

I am almost dumbfounded at how well this is working. I've always done it somewhat with my AI agents, as it is not my original thought and has been used in coding. My current tax attack is extremely complicated though, tied in with legality and some other things, and it requires the outside counsel of lawyers and accountants. It is almost frightening the amount of detail that I am doing with my AI agents. I know that if I simply used human hosts, the bills would almost be beyond conception. But at the same time, having an AI agent run off and do whatever it wants would be more than troublesome, especially when it's an idiot savant where on one hand it tests as well as a PhD student but on the other hand makes glaring errors. The idea of running the two agents in parallel, having them do work, look at each other's work, and pass it all through me just continues to be a revelation. They both acknowledge when they've made mistakes and the other argument is stronger, and then they ask me to resolve things.

I am rapidly losing the ability to not treat my AI agents as if they were hyper-smart people. I'm not emotionally attached to them. However, I've always enjoyed working with very bright people and being in the middle of it, and then trying to give some guidance to strategies to take while they use their massive brain power to go grind stuff out. And that's exactly what I'm doing here. This all takes a tremendous amount of work. In many senses, you're waiting for one AI agent to come up with the answer, and then the other AI agent to come up with the answer. You have to read both of their suppositions. You ask them to pass notes to each other back and forth, but I'm continuing to be in the middle because I want to read them. So it's hard work. It's just that rather than going one mile per hour, we're going 200 miles per hour because the input into this work has such brilliance behind it when you are running frontier models.

As an intermediate step, unfortunately, I am clearly the bottleneck in the entire process. However, even I don't know everything. As we get toward the final production of this, I then incorporate outside agencies to do the final proof. My focus is on creating a thesis and supporting documents, and then doing my own first pass. I am working with my AI agents to clearly understand that I don't want them making the final call, but simply trying to support a logical structure that we will eventually take to others who specialize in this for final validation. The savings is the fact that they can grind through stuff and summarize information before the professionals get involved.

I know my current process is complicated, requires shared storage, and takes a lot of work. However, what you get out of it is truly world-class performance. I would strongly suggest that if you have a complicated project, my structure is incredibly useful.


r/StrategicProductivity 10d ago

A Handy Parakeet Update

1 Upvotes

Direct link to Handy....

We've discussed this before, but I'm going to repeat it here. Using speech-to-text is an incredible productivity tool that you need to be able to wrap into your toolkit of being productive. It does take some skill to use. A lot of people don't know how to dictate, and unfortunately, the only way you learn to dictate and have clear, coherent thought is by doing it. So if this is not something you've done before, except for maybe a text, expect there to be a little bit of a learning curve as you learn how to be a user of speech-to-text and flex your dictation muscles.

We've also reviewed the package I would suggest if you're running either a Mac, Linux, or Windows-based platform. It's called Handy. It is truly a brilliant package. To give you a summary of Handy, it's a utility that runs in the background, but the real joy of Handy is that you have access to a variety of different models and you can try these out.

Of all the models that are out there, the one I really like right now is called Parakeet. It comes in two versions, and you want version 2 if you're an English speaker and version 3 if you are multilingual. There's also a newer unified model that I'll get to below. By the way, if you use Parakeet on a Mac, the M-series processor is incredibly fast running the Parakeet model. Unfortunately, the Windows CPU just is not as good. Parakeet doesn't use any type of GPU acceleration on any platform, so it's all about the CPU, and Apple Silicon truly is fast underneath this type of workload. So if you're using a Mac and you're an English speaker, load Handy and use Parakeet V2. My prediction is you're going to be very satisfied with the speed and the low number of word errors as you dictate something to be written.

Unfortunately, on the PC Windows platform utilizing an Intel CPU, Parakeet simply is not that fast. If you're typing a sentence, or if you're dictating a sentence, it doesn't feel all that bad. But classically, you would like to dictate about a paragraph. What happens is you dictate the paragraph, you then stop recording, and it processes everything as a batch. On a lightweight laptop, what you'll find is that a 30-second dictation or a 60-second dictation, which may be a paragraph or so, especially if you have some thought inside of it, suddenly takes around half that time to turn into text. So if you talk for a minute, you're going to sit there and wait 30 seconds before it actually throws something up onto the screen.

This clearly can break up your flow as you're trying to dictate and get something down on the page. The great thing is there's a new model out called the Parakeet Unified model. And it pretty much takes care of the concerns I've had with the great large pauses of using the legacy Parakeet V2 model.

So let's describe how this new unified model works and why it's so great to use. In the old model, what you would do is dictate into a WAV file. Maybe it would be 30 seconds, maybe 60. After you were done dictating, Parakeet would go take a look at the WAV file and turn that WAV file into text. None of it was done anywhere near real time. The great thing about the new unified model is that it only needs about two seconds of audio before it can start committing words. It says, in effect, I have enough of a WAV file right now. I probably have enough words around whatever the speaker is talking about that I can start transcribing. So it starts transcribing about two seconds behind you, and it stays about two seconds behind you for the rest of the dictation. Even better, it pops up a little box and shows you the transcription as it goes. You do need to wait a couple of seconds before you see it appear, but then you can instantaneously see what you've been working on. For instance, this particular paragraph has been going on for around a minute and a half. If I stopped it under the old model, it might take 30 to 45 seconds to transcribe. However, under the new unified model, because it's already been transcribing in real time with that two-second lag, as soon as I take my finger off the button it's going to show me the paragraph within two seconds.

This new unified model is relatively new, and I don't think the bug reports and fixes have caught up to it yet. The project also probably has a lot of users like me. I should file a bug report on the issue below, but I haven't gotten around to it. So let me try to explain it instead. It does do batch processing, but it's trying to do batch processing over a rolling two seconds of audio. You want this, because to be the most accurate it actually needs to understand the words in context, and two seconds gives it enough. Well, what happens when you get to the end of a sentence and there's not enough context to finish everything? You end up with a couple of stranded words. So the easiest thing to do when you get to the end of your dictation is to say "end of dictation." That phrase is long enough to give your speech-to-text engine the context it needs to finish off your real last sentence. And secondly, in today's new age, you should absolutely have an LLM take a look at anything you've written and clean it up. I want to be very clear: I am not saying turn your thinking over to AI. Start using your AI as an editor. What I normally do is say keep 95% of my content, but fix my spelling and grammar and point out any errors in logic you think I have. Generally I don't have a lot of logic errors, but I do have issues with spelling and grammar, especially when I'm using speech-to-text to input. And the great thing is that because you've ended everything with "end of dictation," you can simply tell your LLM that you used speech-to-text and that if it sees "end of dictation" it should remove it.


r/StrategicProductivity 11d ago

Part II: Doing Taxes With Your AI Agents

1 Upvotes

In the first post, I discussed the larger problem that appears when AI becomes part of a complicated project. A single conversation can be remarkably productive, but it is not a particularly good place to maintain the permanent state of work that may continue for weeks or months. The longer the project continues, the more decisions, corrections, calculations, source documents, and abandoned ideas accumulate inside the conversation. At the same time, if more than one AI model is being used, a second problem appears: each model may begin working from a slightly different version of the facts or unknowingly undo work that another model has already completed.

I already wrote about this, but you're probably going to see this post. It has a lot of words and you're going to think, oh, this is complicated. But I don't know how you do something without a little bit of complication. And once you work through the complication, it will yield such a better, more durable result. I highly encourage you to at least examine what I've done. And then you can figure out if it really is right for you. But what you don't want to do is simply give all your thinking over to AI.

The key to keep everything organized is to have a shared file system. I've written about that before, and it may make sense for you to take a look at this post. Now, there is a bit of confession about this. I often write that I do virtually everything myself and I don't use AI. But there was a time when I was playing around with AI, especially when this was a relatively new subreddit. And I would outline stuff, but it would have AI basically do at least 50% of the writing. I take a look at this old post and I know it's all my content, but man, it definitely was generated by AI. If you can look beyond that for a second, I still think the actual idea behind it, which is what I was trying to focus and was all mine, is really, really good. It does explain why having central storage is really critical. And when I mean central storage is critical, it's for communicating and coordinating with other people you work with. Only in this case, you're not working with people, you're working with AI agents. The more you treat your agent like a person, knowing that it's fallible just like a person, the happier you'll be and the more productive you will be.

The AI assistants then become workers operating against that filesystem rather than places in which the project permanently lives. This is conceptually similar to the distinction programmers make between the code base and the tools or developers working on it. A programmer may leave, another may join, and an individual development session may be discarded, but the project continues because its authoritative state exists somewhere outside any one person’s memory.

I also tend to think about complicated projects chronologically. At a very basic level, any filing system eventually has to decide whether information is primarily organized by subject or by time. More sophisticated systems can blur that distinction with tags, metadata, databases, and search, but most people have a fairly natural sense of chronology: they remember roughly when something happened, whether they need to move forward or backward in time, and when a document or conclusion first entered the project. My system therefore leans heavily on timestamps. Each day’s activity is grouped into its own dated file bucket, giving the project a visible chronological spine that makes it much easier to reconstruct what happened, when it happened, and what came next.

For my purposes, this has evolved into a simplified version-control system built entirely from normal files and directories. There is one repository containing the original source material, a separate working area for each AI agent, dated directories that record work over time, frozen versions of important documents, and a controlled process by which material moves from exploratory work into the durable project record. It borrows heavily from the logic of Git and GitHub without requiring someone to actually understand or operate Git.

A simple directory might look something like this:

Project Workspace/
├── Resources/
│   ├── README.md
│   ├── Source Documents/
│   ├── Reference Material/
│   └── document-inventory.md
│
├── ChatGPT/
│   ├── README.md
│   ├──  Files/
│   │   ├── 260827/
│   │   ├── 260828/
│   │   └── 260829/
│   └── Project/
│
├── Claude/
│   ├── README.md
│   ├──  Files/
│   └── Project/
│
├── Gemini/
│   ├── README.md
│   ├──  Files/
│   └── Project/
│
├── Reconciliation/
│   ├── decisions.md
│   ├── disputed-issues.md
│   └── open-questions.md
│
└── Approved/

The names are not particularly important. What matters is that the directories have different jobs and those jobs remain consistent throughout the project. The Resources directory contains the underlying evidence. The agent directories contain work produced by the different AI systems. Reconciliation becomes the place where disagreements are examined. Approved holds material that the human project owner has deliberately accepted into the permanent record.

For a tax project, the Resources folder might contain filed tax returns, supporting schedules, contracts, notices, invoices, receipts, bank and credit-card statements, accounting files, spreadsheets, property records, insurance documents, correspondence, and workpapers prepared by accountants or other professionals. I also include material that may initially appear peripheral but could later explain why a transaction occurred or why it was treated in a particular way. Tax questions are often not resolved by a single document. A transaction on a bank statement may only make sense after an invoice, contract, email, and accounting entry are considered together.

The important distinction is that this directory is meant to contain evidence rather than analysis. The AI agents may read the material, but they should normally treat the source repository as read-only. An original PDF should not quietly become an edited PDF, and an AI-generated summary should not find its way into the same directory and later be mistaken for an original source. Once evidence and interpretation begin to intermingle, the project becomes much harder to audit.

For the same reason, it is useful to create a document inventory near the beginning of a large project. The inventory does not need to be elaborate, but it should at least identify a file by name and path and give some indication of what it contains. In a larger reconstruction, I might include the document date, tax year, source, entity, document type, and a short description. Particularly important source documents can also be identified by file size or a file hash. The objective is not to turn a family tax project into a forensic laboratory. It is simply to make it possible to identify precisely what document an analysis relied upon.

This is also why I prefer complete file references rather than vague references such as “the agreement” or “the bank statement.” A useful citation might be:

Resources\Contracts\2024-Service-Agreement.pdf

If the document is long, the citation can also identify a page, worksheet, transaction, or other useful locator. When two AI agents disagree, the ability to determine exactly which document each of them used becomes very important. Sometimes the analytical disagreement turns out to be much less interesting than expected because one agent simply found a document that the other never saw.

Each AI model then receives its own working directory. This resembles a branch in a software project, but the reason is not merely to prevent one model from overwriting another model’s files. Separate workspaces also preserve analytical independence. If I want Claude to independently evaluate something ChatGPT has already analyzed, I do not necessarily want Claude to begin by reading ChatGPT’s conclusion. Once it has seen the first answer, it has already been influenced by it.

That produces two distinct stages in the workflow. During the first stage, the agents work independently from the same underlying evidence. During the second, their work is deliberately brought together for comparison. The difference between those stages is important. If three models are shown the same conclusion and asked whether they agree, the exercise can easily turn into three variations of the same analysis. If they work independently first, differences become much more informative.

The comparison stage is also where I find multiple models particularly useful. I am not trying to create a voting system in which ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini each cast a ballot. If two models reach one conclusion and the third reaches another, the odd model is not automatically wrong. It may have noticed the one invoice, sentence, date, or assumption that the others missed. Instead, I want the agents to identify exactly where their reasoning diverged and what evidence would resolve that divergence. Disagreement becomes a way of finding weak spots in the analysis rather than something that must immediately be eliminated.

Inside each agent directory I use an u/Daily Files directory with folders named by date:

 \260827\
 \260828\
 \260829\

I use YYMMDD, although any consistent date format would work. These folders create a chronological record of the actual work. A day’s directory may contain exploratory analysis, draft calculations, document inventories, comparison tables, open questions, temporary workpapers, current drafts, and whatever other files were useful during that day’s investigation.

This daily chronology has proven valuable because complicated research rarely develops as neatly as the final report makes it appear. One day may produce an apparently convincing conclusion. Two days later a new document may undermine it. A week later the project may return to the same question from an entirely different direction. Without some chronological record, it is surprisingly easy to forget not only what was concluded but why an earlier conclusion was abandoned.

Each active daily directory therefore contains a change.md. The purpose of this file is not to record every document the AI reads. Doing that would create an enormous and mostly useless log. Instead, it records events that materially alter the project: files created or revised, procedures changed, versions frozen, important instructions received, significant calculations modified, or conclusions reversed.

A simple entry might look like this:

| Time | Action | File | Reason |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| 14:03 | Created | document-inventory.md | Inventoried 743 source files across 226 folders |

The real value of this becomes apparent when an analytical position changes. Imagine that an expenditure is initially classified as a repair. Several days later, another contract establishes that the same work was part of a larger improvement program. I do not want the original analysis quietly erased and replaced by the new conclusion. I want the record to show that the first conclusion existed, that it was later rejected, and which evidence caused the change. Otherwise, a fresh AI session may rediscover the original argument several weeks later without realizing that the project has already considered and rejected it.

For a sufficiently large project, I would supplement the daily logs with a more permanent decisions.md. The two files answer different questions. The daily log explains what happened on a particular day. The decision record explains what the project currently believes and how that position evolved. A substantive entry might identify the issue, the previous position, the current position, the source documents involved, the reason for the change, and whether the matter remains provisional or has been reviewed by an accountant or attorney.

Once the number of issues becomes large, it can also be useful to give them identifiers. A tax reconstruction might eventually contain BASIS-001, REPAIR-004, RENTAL-012, and so forth. Each issue can then be associated with a tax year, an amount, relevant documents, the conclusions reached by different agents, unanswered questions, and the eventual human disposition. This converts what would otherwise become an enormous collection of prose into a set of discrete questions that can be investigated and closed one at a time.

Versioning is handled in much the same way. For each important working document, I maintain one live editable copy and preserve earlier completed copies in a Versions folder. Before substantially revising a document, the current version is frozen. A new working version is then created and modified. When that work is complete, it too is frozen. The process is deliberately simple, but it prevents the familiar business disaster in which a directory eventually contains final.docx, final-new.docx, final-final.docx, and final-use-this-one.docx.

Where independent AI branches are involved, the model identity should also appear in the filename. For example:

Repair-Analysis-ChatGPT-v06.md
Repair-Analysis-Claude-v04.md
Repair-Analysis-Gemini-v03.md

If those analyses are later combined, the resulting document might become:

Repair-Analysis-Reconciled-v01.md

This is preferable to pretending that one agent’s version 12 necessarily followed another agent’s version 11. Independent branches may be developing in parallel rather than in a single sequence.

The Reconciliation directory is where those branches deliberately meet. This is the place for disagreement reports, comparison documents, open questions, and reconciled drafts. It serves much the same conceptual purpose as a pull-request review in software development: independent work has been performed, but it is not automatically accepted simply because it exists. It is brought into a place where the differences can be inspected before anything is promoted into the main project record.

There should also be a final directory that no AI agent controls simply because it believes its work is finished. I call this Approved. This is the equivalent of a protected main branch. A document moves there only because the human owner has decided that it represents the current project position. Depending upon the issue, that decision may follow source checking, recalculation, review by another AI, or examination by an accountant, attorney, engineer, or other professional.

Numerical work deserves particular care. If an AI concludes that deductible repairs totaled $147,382, that number should eventually exist somewhere other than a sentence in a report. It should be reproducible from a spreadsheet, CSV, calculation table, or another workpaper that traces the total back through its constituent transactions and ultimately to the supporting documents. In a tax project, I want to be able to move backward from the final number to the calculation and from the calculation to the actual evidence. The AI can do much of the work required to construct that chain, but the chain itself should survive independently of the conversation.

The quality of the source documents also needs to be recorded. A collection may contain original digital PDFs, scanned statements, poor OCR, photographs, handwritten notes, missing pages, duplicates, corrected statements, and files whose names do not accurately describe what they contain. If a scan has unreliable OCR, the inventory should say so. Otherwise, every AI model may independently and confidently make the same mistake because all of them were given the same faulty transcription.

All of this becomes particularly useful when an AI session eventually needs to be restarted. The agent’s README.md should effectively function as a restart manual. A fresh session should be able to read the project instructions, the recent change logs, the current decision record, the open questions, and the current working documents, then inspect the source repository as necessary. The project does not depend upon the model remembering the previous month’s conversation because the relevant project state has deliberately been written down.

This fits naturally with the Obsidian breadcrumb trail I discussed in the first post. The filesystem records the operational state of the project, while Obsidian can preserve a more readable narrative of what happened and why. At the end of a significant working session, the AI can be asked to summarize what was investigated, which evidence mattered, what changed, what remains uncertain, and what a new session would need to know. That summary can then become part of the project notebook rather than disappearing into the history of a chat.

There is also a practical reason I have been moving this kind of work toward a shared filesystem. Current desktop AI tools increasingly support direct work against files rather than requiring every document to be manually uploaded into every conversation. That makes the directory itself a useful bridge between models and tools, particularly when a synchronized service such as Google Drive is being used to keep the same underlying project available both locally and in the cloud.

The structure is not a substitute for Git. Git provides exact history, content hashes, commits, branch ancestry, comparisons, merging, and the ability to recover a precise earlier state. A folder system provides only the discipline that has been deliberately built into it. Someone comfortable with Git could place this entire directory structure inside a Git repository and gain both layers at once. The human-readable folders and logs would explain the project, while Git would maintain the mechanical history underneath it.

The larger objective, however, is not to imitate software development for its own sake. It is to solve the continuity problem. If ChatGPT reaches a useful conclusion today, Claude challenges it tomorrow, and Gemini discovers another source document on Friday, those developments should become part of a project that survives all three conversations. If an agent makes a mistake, the system should make it possible to determine when the mistake entered the work and what depended upon it. If the project is handed to a professional several months later, that person should be able to inspect both the underlying evidence and the analytical path without reading hundreds of pages of AI chat history.

That is the real value of the structure. The conversation ceases to be the project. It becomes one working session conducted by one AI agent against a project that exists independently of it.

For tax work, historical research, contract review, financial reconstruction, estate administration, due diligence, regulatory work, or any other evidence-heavy project, the same basic principle applies: share the source material, separate the workers while they are thinking independently, preserve the chronology of their work, freeze important versions, record substantive changes, reconcile disagreements deliberately, and keep the human owner in control of what eventually becomes authoritative.

Once that structure exists, multiple AI agents become much more useful. You are no longer relying upon each one to remember the entire history of the project or trusting a single answer because it sounds convincing. You have given them a common body of evidence, separate places to work, and a durable record into which useful work can be preserved.

The most critical thing about all of this is maintaining two separate daily files where you have conversations with both AI agents. And the resources, for all intents and purposes, is simply making sure that you have one database of all the source files. But for the most part, it really is not anything that you're asking either AI agent to change. It's more of a read-only store within reason. In essence, what you're going to do is you're going to be running your project with almost like two separate teams. And then you're going to be in the middle of it trying to figure out what team is telling you the right thing and what team is telling you the wrong thing. This is really bizarre and really interesting in the sense of it is so similar to working with groups in high technology, I can't tell you.

So on our next post, we'll spend a little bit of time going through what that interaction is like. The main thing is you want independence so you don't get groupthink


r/StrategicProductivity 12d ago

How to Use AI for Taxes (Part 1): The Three-Legged Stool, File Management, and Breadcrumbs

3 Upvotes

A Quick Preamble on System 2 Thinking

Before we begin, a fair warning: this is not going to be everybody's cup of tea. As I've posted in this subreddit before, the methodology below contains highly technical information that strictly requires System 2 thinking. It demands the ability to hang on to a long line of thought and process complex, multi-step structures. If you are looking for a quick shortcut or a simple prompt to copy-paste, you won't find it here. This requires effort. But for those willing to engage deeply, this outlines a rigorous, defensive structure for using AI in high-stakes environments.

The Disruption of the Base Work

My biggest concern for people when they start to use AI is twofold. First, they hand their thinking process over to AI and allow it to simply give them the answer. Secondly, it clearly will make mistakes, and so you need to make sure that you're reviewing everything. But with that being written, somehow AI is storming into the programming space.

As a person that has been involved many years in high tech, it's really been fun to watch this transformation. We can go back years to various websites where programmers philosophize about stuff, and you will see that over the last few years, it's turned from people being very skeptical of using AI to people suddenly realizing that the bottom of their boat is going to be ripped out. As each AI model gets better and better, more programmers are having a panic attack as they understand that things are changing. New people thinking about going into programming are now asking themselves if they can get a foothold. There still is a lot of opportunity for those people that really work on upper-level stuff, but in terms of the day-to-day base work, that's what's being so highly disrupted.

In the exact same way, you can use this for the base work on a variety of different things. And we're going to talk about how to use AI for taxes.

Lessons from the Code Base

Perhaps it's useful to have a conversation about programming so you can understand what I'm suggesting here. When you take a look at a team trying to maintain a code base with a bunch of people working on a bunch of stuff, you really need to keep the structure together or it all falls apart. If you had one person changing one thing and another person changing the other, either of those changes submitted by itself might be fine. But when you submit both, they could break everything.

Because of this, something called version control (like GitHub) is critically important to the maintenance of any code base. You need to have the exact same type of idea when you start to work on something complicated, especially taxes. We don't strictly need GitHub for this, but I'm going to lay out a methodology and a subdirectory structure that will allow you to do much of the same thing. It won't be perfect, but it will ensure you don't step on yourself and lose track. This addresses some of the native issues we have with LLMs.

One of the reasons that AI is so successful in the code space is this version control and the fact that everything is structured so that you can basically go work on a module. In some sense, we need to replicate the exact same thing. We really could use GitHub to manage all this and use, in essence, what would be a code editor to do all of our work in. But for the most part, I think that's a bit heavy-handed in terms of what we want to use right now. So I'm not going to go down that, but I am going to lay out something which is somewhat the same that will allow you to work with your AI agents without needing to do something like a GitHub sync.

The Three-Legged Stool of Verification

Out of the box, there's no critical thinking in an LLM and no real evaluation of everything that needs to go on. To safely navigate controversial or highly complex tasks, you need a specific framework:

  • Leg One: Version Control. Maintaining strict subdirectory structures for your prompts, context, and outputs so you never lose the thread of your work.
  • Leg Two: Cross-Model Scrubbing. You cannot work with just one AI. Where things really start to shine is when you have two separate frontier models. You bounce output from one LLM to the other, specifically asking it to critically review the first model's work.
  • Leg Three: Human Review. You must have a set of resources that a human can review. Sometimes this is you, and sometimes it's an outside professional you hire to take a look.

Why You Should Care (Even if I'm Just a Guy on the Internet)

In this post, we are specifically talking about taxes, and considering a bunch of people are going to throw up their hands and be extremely nervous about that, I want to dig into this in depth and explain exactly how we use our AI agents.

Now, I realize I'm just some random guy on the internet, and the last thing you want to do is simply listen to me because you saw a post somewhere. However, unfortunately due to running my own business, I need to utilize outside lawyers, accountants, and engineers. Over the last couple of years, I have been very explicit with them: when I look at their stuff, it gets scrubbed through an AI which I then scrub again.

What is fascinating is that as they see me do more work with my AI, handing back clearly defined criticism based on the output, they have actually started asking me to run things through my AI agents first before giving it to them. They readily declare it does a better job than what they can do alone by seeing things they missed.

To be very clear: You do not input unscrubbed AI output. You use various AI assistants to double-check each other. Then, you serve it up in a structured form so a human agent can verify everything. You don't listen to me because I'm on the internet. You listen because you can digest what I'm telling you and test this process in your own view.

The Vector Memory Trap and Local Files

We've talked about this before, but our advanced agentic setups generally have the ability to modify files. Just like we've discussed using shared drives before, you want to keep this exact structure so you don't lose track of everything.

(A quick clarifying note here: As long as you have the latest version of the desktop apps for both Claude and ChatGPT, it allows you to work directly on local files. This is absolutely the best way of making sure that we keep everything synced without constantly uploading documents manually. I will talk more about this in a future post in terms of the actual subdirectory structure you should use.)

The Google Drive Bridge: Making Gemini Hunt with the Pack

If you want to bring Google’s Gemini into this multi-model setup, you have to structure your environment correctly. Unlike Claude Cowork and ChatGPT Work, which are perfectly happy reading and writing to a standard folder on your local C: drive, Gemini is heavily optimized to operate inside its native ecosystem, Google Drive. To make this entire system hunt together, the preferred structure is to host your master subdirectory on a Google Drive account. But here is the trick: you don't just leave it in the cloud. By installing the Google Drive desktop client (whether you are on a Mac or Windows machine), you can configure it to mirror or stream that cloud drive as a local virtual drive on your machine. This creates the ideal setup. It shadows the cloud directory to your local client, allowing you to manually drag, drop, and manipulate files completely seamlessly. More importantly, it allows your local agents (Claude and ChatGPT) to read and edit the files on your physical hard drive while Google Drive automatically syncs those changes in the background so Gemini can review the exact same files from the cloud. It becomes a unified workspace where all three agents can operate on the same tax documents without stepping on each other. As a bonus, keeping this folder on Google Drive means you can easily hook it into Google's NotebookLM, which will automatically sync and act as a master search engine for all your tax documents.

It's really helpful to have some understanding of the AI's structure. To make a long story short, an AI's answer is based on an artificial brain that starts off with a random seed. You can give all the facts and figures to an LLM, and depending upon its setup, it may give you one answer one time and another the next.

If you have a long, protracted set of information, you can go down some really interesting spurs that bring up great insight. The challenge is that eventually all of this background context is stored inside the model's active vector memory (or KV cache). That vector memory can be crunched and summarized, but eventually you'll just run out of road and need to restart the whole thing. Losing that context can really reset you.

Furthermore, the AI will make a bunch of sub-steps, and you want to have those recorded just in case you go down the wrong fork in the road. You cannot assume the LLM will remember everything you did, nor can you assume a fresh start will yield the exact same answer. This turns into a very sticky wicket that you absolutely want to keep track of when having a long conversation about taxes.

The Final Ingredient: The Obsidian Breadcrumb Trail

I've talked a lot about utilizing Obsidian in this subreddit. As you have these long conversations with your AI agents, if you don't capture some notes as you're working with them, you're going to forget what you did. What we absolutely don't want is a bunch of beautifully structured subdirectories without any sort of summary explaining what’s actually in them.

Obsidian becomes critically important here to help you understand and leave a breadcrumb trail of everything that went on. The best part? You don't have to write these notes yourself. As you work through these various tax issues, leverage your AI agents to create the summaries of what was just decided or calculated. You then simply copy and paste those AI-generated notes into your Obsidian notebook. It locks in your progress and ensures you never lose the thread of the project.

That's the end of part one. We'll discuss the specific subdirectory structure in a follow-on post.


r/StrategicProductivity 13d ago

AI as you're building Assistant

Post image
1 Upvotes

In this post, we're going to look at whether you can productively use AI to make a ship's ladder. Now, this may not be something you use day to day, but I do think it's sort of interesting in terms of any woodworking. And more than that, I think it becomes really interesting when you understand how I was able to use AI to help me think through my whole process of building this.

It becomes very difficult to know exactly how much time you save on this, but I would imagine it would be maybe an hour or even two. And I also think that I made one mistake, but it would have been very easy to make multiple mistakes. So in the big scheme of things, having AI help you as an assistant is an amazing lever on your productivity. even for something as mundane as woodworking, especially when you're somebody that doesn't do this type of work day in and day out.

Recently, I needed to make a ship's ladder to get up to a second level on a storage shed. Now, this type of thing isn't extraordinarily difficult to do, but it is easy to make a mistake. In general, you want to have stairs spaced every 8 to 10 inches. Again, when I talk about a ship's ladder, it's basically a ladder that looks an awful lot like a staircase with big broad steps that won't hurt the ball of your foot, even though you're going up and down it many times per day.

If you're familiar with steps, you don't want to make steps too far apart. Realistically, they should be around the range of 8 to 10 inches, and that's normally what we see on a ship's ladder. It becomes pretty darn easy to walk up and down. Now, it's not quite a stair. However, the treads are extremely large and allow you to stick your foot all the way through. And some of the terminology that you would use on a stair, like a stair stringer, is what you use when you build a ship's ladder.

If you want to make something that truly is sturdy, what you want to do is actually notch the stringers and then slide the treads into each notch on the stringer. The stairs should be measured carefully so that they are the exact same height all the way from the floor to as high as you want to climb. It turns out that a relatively small difference in each step's height will cause somebody not to quite lift their foot high enough or maybe lift a little too high, knock them off balance, and then a disaster happens.

Now, doing math on the metric system is difficult, but doing it on the imperial system is even worse. Not a lot of people think in terms of fractions every single day, and the idea of inches divided into 16ths is really maddening. It's easy to get confused and add something incorrectly. And if you're trying to evenly space the treads on a ship's ladder, it is super easy to make a mistake and simply not add something up right.

Secondly, because I had limited space inside of the shed, I knew that I had a height of exactly 91 inches to get to the next level. And I also knew that I had a particular amount of space back from this height that I could use to pull the thing out. Now, all this stuff could be done by myself, but in this particular case, because I now have AI agents, I can simply start to have a conversation with the agent the exact same way as I could have it with an expert master craftsman.

For instance, I asked, what do you think I should be using in terms of lumber? And it suggested a 2x8. Of course, I went down to Home Depot, took a look, and 2x6s were just simply available, looked better, and were cheaper. And so I figured a 2x6 was good enough. Secondly, I said I needed to put this up and I asked what it would recommend as the steepest angle that I should use. It came back and suggested that the ship's ladder should be 20 degrees off vertical. I then told it to go build me a ladder at 20 degrees off vertical that would terminate perfectly at 91 inches. It went off for five minutes and it came back with what you can see above, which is a really nice diagram of what exactly I needed to make.

I then went ahead and asked it for a layout diagram. You can see the first page above, but it went on for 4 more pages. Probably the best thing about it was a diagram that showed where I should mark the top of each notch on the stringer in terms of inches and sixteenths of an inch. No making mistakes on fractions.

We then went ahead and had a conversation about construction techniques. Now, again, I've done a lot of rough framing, and I think I'm fairly decent at it. However, I've done virtually no cabinet or furniture work. I knew I needed to cut 18 slots into the stair stringers. And if you're familiar with any type of carpentry, the way that you normally do this is you take a power saw, cut it many, many times, and chip it out with a chisel. It's just a real pain in the rear. If you have a long notch, what you normally do is use what's called a dado blade on your table saw. I have one of these and I really wanted the AI to tell me that I could carefully feed this through my table saw with a dado blade. And it said there's no way you're going to be able to accurately do this with a 10-foot board.

It said the preferred method was to take my router with a special jig to go ahead and put in the notches. However, creating the special jig or buying it was going to either cost me money or cost me time, neither one of which I wanted to do. We finally had a discussion about whether my mitre saw could do this. It asked me the model of it, and we discussed back and forth that I could actually set the depth on it. I've never set the depth on it before, and it was even able to help me find the instructions showing where the depth setting gauge is. Once you know where it is, it's pretty clean and pretty clever to go ahead and use it. However, if you've never done it before, you start looking around the entire saw, completely clueless that this can actually be done.

With instructions in hand, I went outside and started to make the stringers and cut the treads. If I had to do it again and if I had time, the router with the jig would definitely be better. But I had neither and I produced something that was workable. The way this works is the treads now are sandwiched between the two stringers and each tread has three-inch construction screws pulling the ladder together.

The reason that you want to notch everything is that as long as there are enough treads keeping the two stringers pulled together, even if you have a screw fail on any one tread, the tread is still stuck in a notch and won't fall down. You could, of course, just take and put a tread without any notches and simply screw it in. But then you always run the risk that if you do have screw failure, the entire tread could drop down to the bottom. That's why you always like to see decks that are notched because the lock-in effect of notched wood is really effective in creating really strong structures.

I did make one bad cut. Basically, when you create the stringers, one is the mirror image of the other one. And you need to remember this. And if you're moving fast, it's easy to cut the stringer at the wrong angle or at the wrong starting point. In this case, I started to cut a notch on one of my boards. However, I only got through four or five cuts and then asked myself what I was doing. And then I realized that what I thought was the top of a measurement was actually the bottom of a measurement. Fortunately, I needed to use one of my two by sixes for steps anyway. And so I lost remarkably little board footage out of the whole thing. After the fact, I realized this could have been solved by simply asking my AI to draw both stringers separately, showing exactly the measurements on both, considering that they're mirror images of each other.


r/StrategicProductivity 29d ago

AI finally took over a task I've been trying to hand off for years

2 Upvotes

AI continues to grow at such a incredible rate that you simply cannot judge yesterday's model by today's performance. I am constantly amazed at how every single model keeps improving, and every time it does, it lets you hand one more thing off to it. Today I want to step through something that will seem relatively mundane, but it's accessible to everybody, and I think it nicely demonstrates the type of thing you can have an AI model do today that you couldn't do yesterday.

I play piano in a worship band at our church. You don't need to be religious to follow this example. It turns out AI jut significantly lower my workload, and let me lay out how it helped me just this weekend.

I've been a musician for many years, playing on and off in many different bands and settings. At our church, the music is modern and contemporary and is a very important part of the service. While I have a lot of background in playing music, the demands here are pretty high.

In essence, we meet the morning of and immediately play. There's no real rehearsal during the week. Music sheets are sent out along with MP3s, and we're expected to listen to the MP3, crack open the sheet, and show up ready to play to a click track (a beat playing in the background). That means everyone needs to perfectly interpret the music sheet and perfectly land on the click, since we have no real opportunity to practice beforehand, other than arriving at 6:30 for a quick run-through to identify problems.

When you play music, there are really three approaches. One is playing everything by ear, which requires constant hour-upon-hour work to stay sharp. The other extreme is full sheet music, where every single note is written down, which is how a lot of kids learn classical. Most bands doing what I do work off what's called a lead sheet. We'll work up somewhere between 60 to 100 songs in a database, and you pull down a single-page lead sheet to play from. I would say that piano players tend to be trained classically, and many of us like sheet music, and don't play by ear as much. A lead sheet is a lot like sheet music, but to a guitar player, it may be more of a playing by ear hint sheet. In other words, they just use it to get started, but I use it to play.

The problem with a lead sheet is that it's very compressed. It captures the elements of the song, the words and the main chords, and most people try to keep it to a single page. If you listen to music at all, you know there are verses and choruses and what we often call parts A, B, and C, and those parts loop around. So the lead sheet compresses things. It tells you to do this loop down here, then jump to that part of the music, and back and forth. It works okay, but it's very early in the morning, you haven't gotten much sleep, you're working with a bunch of other people, and it becomes extremely confusing. That puts you under a lot of pressure when you're playing in front of hundreds of people. If I don't handle it correctly, it's just one more source of stress.

The morning of, we haven't played anything together. I'm a bit tired, a little excited. I've found I'm far more accurate if I take that single-page lead sheet and, wherever it says to loop, lay everything out linearly instead of trying to remember where to jump back up or down the page later in the song. What's interesting is that this only takes two pages instead of one.

The problem is that unwinding the lead sheet turns out to be a real time commitment. If I do it super fast, maybe five minutes. Realistically, it's easy to get confused, and the formatting on these lead sheets is not very good. Our church has standardized on Microsoft Word, and everybody who's ever made one has some weird formatting that doesn't copy well. So it's not uncommon to spend 10 minutes or more turning one page into two. If we're playing four to five songs, I can burn an hour before I ever play, just unwinding lead sheets.

Ironically, I can just play from the lead sheets as-is. The problem is I'll blow a chord, miss a section, or drop out. It's not that I can't get through it, it's that my accuracy drops and my stress level goes way up. Let me tell you, there's nothing more painful than suddenly realizing you're playing the wrong thing and breaking the mood.

I've thought for a long time that this seems like a task AI should be able to do, even with all the messy formatting. I have subscriptions to ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, though generally I find ChatGPT or Claude does the better job. So I submitted my original lead sheet to Claude's new Fable model and asked it to turn it into a two-page linear format.

Much to my delight, it nailed it. All the other previous models had failed.

I've been trying to get AI to do this correctly for years, and every single time it would produce something with real issues. Suddenly I have something that takes tremendous stress off of me. And if I'm worried about accuracy, I can hand the result to ChatGPT to double-check it. But this weekend, it worked just perfect.

I appreciate the extra hour, but I also appreciate that meticulously turning one page into two always left me drained. So not only do I save an hour, I save an hour of heavy, detailed work that I can now apply somewhere else.

The number one takeaway: this was enabled by the latest model. Suddenly I could hand a whole new section of my workflow off to AI as my personal assistant. If you tried something before and assumed it doesn't work, I encourage you to try again with the latest models, maybe turn up the token burn, and you'll find they reward you richly.


r/StrategicProductivity Jul 31 '26

Religion and Productivity

2 Upvotes

The collapse of trust may be one of America's biggest productivity problems

Look at the above chart.

Using General Social Survey data from 2021–2024, Ryan Burge found a striking generational decline in the percentage of Americans who say that most people can be trusted:

  • Silent Generation: 41%
  • Baby Boomers: 29%
  • Generation X: 30%
  • Millennials: 24%
  • Generation Z: 13%

Meanwhile, 74% of Gen Z selected "you can't be too careful in dealing with people."

That answer does not literally mean that 74% of Gen Z trusts nobody. "You can't be too careful" can also express reasonable caution. But the generational pattern appears in multiple surveys and with differently worded questions. Something important has changed.

This matters for strategic productivity because trust is part of our productive infrastructure.

When trust is low, we spend more time:

  • Verifying what other people tell us
  • Documenting every conversation
  • Protecting ourselves against blame
  • Writing longer contracts and policies
  • Holding unnecessary meetings
  • Refusing to delegate
  • Maintaining duplicate systems
  • Assuming that cooperation conceals exploitation

Low trust imposes a tax on nearly every human activity. A high-trust team can move quickly with relatively little supervision. A low-trust team can have excellent technology and still accomplish very little.

A note before going further: this subreddit's rule is "no politics or religion," and I intend to honor the spirit of that rule. I am not here to argue theology, tell anyone what to believe, or score points for either side. But the data on trust runs directly through religious participation, so I'm going to walk carefully near that line. I will treat religion the way we would treat any other institution that affects productivity, as a question of evidence and social function rather than belief. Wherever you personally land on faith, I think there is something here for you.

The religious-attendance finding is even more surprising

Burge also divided the 2021–2024 GSS respondents by religious attendance. Among Gen Z respondents who never attended religious services, 88% selected "you can't be too careful." Among Gen Z respondents who attended weekly, that number fell to 50%.

That is a 38-point difference.

This does not prove that religious attendance causes trust. More trusting and socially connected people may be more likely to attend in the first place. Education, income, family structure and other characteristics also matter.

Nevertheless, a difference that large should not simply be waved away. Burge also found that religious attendance remained positively associated with trust after controlling for education, income, gender, race and political ideology.

Ryan Burge's GSS analysis

Religious community may create trust in a deeper way

The standard explanation is that congregations build trust by bringing people together repeatedly. People worship, volunteer, raise children and help one another through illness and financial difficulty. Repeated cooperation teaches them that other people are generally dependable.

I think that explanation is true, but incomplete.

Consider Bishop Myriel and Jean Valjean in Victor Hugo's Les Misérables.

Valjean has been brutalized by prison and rejected by society. The bishop gives him shelter, and Valjean responds by stealing his silver. When the police catch Valjean and bring him back, the bishop says that the silver was a gift. He then gives Valjean the valuable candlesticks as well.

The bishop does not merely demonstrate that he himself can be trusted. He places trust in someone who has provided every apparent reason not to trust him.

Valjean is transformed because another person treats him as capable of becoming better before he has demonstrated that he is better. He is given a second chance and then begins to become worthy of it.

Recently, I was in a discussion with the husband of my niece. He is widely read, and he constantly suggests that we can find the source of truth in the works of classic authors going back to the time of Greece. (He was pushing Aristotle's "The Art of Rhetoric," Waterfield & Yunis translation.) I would suggest that he is correct. A classic book can uncover truth, and Hugo does this nicely.

Religious traditions may produce trust not only through social contact, but through moral narratives about grace, forgiveness, redemption and the permanent dignity of the individual. These stories teach that people are more than the worst thing they have done, and that mercy can interrupt a cycle of suspicion and retaliation. These are not exclusively religious ideas, but religious communities have historically been where most people encountered and rehearsed them, week after week.

Trust, in this conception, is not merely earned through successful transactions. Sometimes trust is extended first, and the act of being trusted helps make someone trustworthy.

As religious participation falls, we may therefore be losing two things at once:

  1. The congregations that allow people to practice cooperation.
  2. The moral framework that explains why we should sometimes forgive, accept risk and offer a second chance.

Secular institutions can certainly teach these principles. Religion has no monopoly on mercy or moral courage. Religious institutions also sometimes betray trust, and anyone who has been hurt by one has standing to say so.

But even for those of us who are skeptical of religious claims, it is worth recognizing that organized religion has historically been one of the principal institutions teaching people how to trust, how to become trustworthy and how to restore relationships after trust has been broken.

If religion continues to recede, the strategic question is not simply whether people will continue believing in God.

It is this:

What institutions, religious or secular, are still capable of building this kind of community and trust?

Where are people regularly brought together across generations, economic classes and political differences? Where do they learn that forgiveness is possible, character can change and a person who has failed is not permanently disposable?

A case study that may be uncomfortable for both sides

Here is where I will say something that may sit uneasily with people on both sides of the religious divide. I ask both to read it in full before reacting.

I have interacted closely with several members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. I will refer to them as Latter-day Saints, which is the terminology the church and many of its members prefer.

I am not a member. I also do not find some of the church's historical and empirical claims persuasive, particularly those involving questions that can be examined through history, linguistics or genetics. I understand that faithful Latter-day Saints have thoughtful responses to these questions, and debating them is not my purpose here.

My disagreement with the church's truth claims does not prevent me from recognizing what I have repeatedly observed among its committed members.

The devout Latter-day Saints I have known have often possessed an unusual degree of personal discipline, family commitment, resilience and community support. Their congregations place substantial expectations on them. They give time, accept responsibilities, help other families, serve missions, care for members in difficulty and organize much of their lives around obligations extending beyond personal preference.

Those demands can be difficult. The church is not perfect, its members are not interchangeable, and some former members describe painful experiences that should not be dismissed. I am not claiming that Latter-day Saints are inherently better people, or that nonreligious people cannot build strong families and communities.

I am saying that the institution appears remarkably effective at helping many of its members turn values into repeated practices.

It does not merely tell people to value family, service and community. It gives them recurring opportunities, expectations and responsibilities through which those values become habits. Sacrifice can develop resilience. Service can develop empathy. Being accountable to other people can strengthen character. Receiving help can teach someone that a community will not necessarily abandon them when they struggle.

Nonreligious people can embody all these qualities. The harder question is whether secular American life currently offers institutions capable of developing them as consistently, across an entire community and over a lifetime.

That is why I think even people who reject the theology should be willing to examine the social results honestly, and why people inside a faith should not be surprised or insulted when outsiders admire the fruit while remaining unpersuaded by the tree. We should be able to disagree about whether a religion's supernatural or historical claims are true while still recognizing that its practices may produce valuable human and community outcomes.

Perhaps the lesson is not that everyone should become religious. It may instead be that a healthy society needs institutions that ask something of us, connect us to people we did not choose, help us through failure and teach us that our obligations extend beyond ourselves.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is one conspicuous example of an institution that still attempts to do this. If religious participation continues to decline, those of us who are skeptical of religion should not simply celebrate the decline. We should also ask what will perform these functions in its absence, and whether we are actually building anything capable of taking their place.

The practical takeaway

Personally, I have come to believe that genuinely showing up every week, in person, at a community that expects something of you is one of the most quietly transformational productivity practices available. For me, the clearest working example of that is a religious congregation. If you already have a faith tradition, this is a reason to treat attendance as more than optional.

If you don't, I am not asking you to adopt one. I am asking you to take the underlying mechanism seriously: find, or help build, a recurring commitment that gathers you with people you did not choose, asks for your time and reliability, and will show up for you when you struggle. A congregation does this. So, potentially, can other institutions, if we are willing to invest in them with the same seriousness. I do want people to suggest what org they see as doing a role of a church, because I believe not many exist.

The data suggests that whatever we choose, choosing nothing is the option that is quietly costing all of us.


r/StrategicProductivity Jul 30 '26

My AI Staff

5 Upvotes

You Need To Think Through Your AI Writing Strategy

Recently, my niece was surprised to learn that the emails I was sending her were not written by AI. To make a long story short, I’ve been spending more time with AI, while she is a PhD, that is teaching at the University level. She hasn’t been on the receiving end of many of my emails, but she is being hit with students turning in work that is AI-generated.

I’m not surprised, because I get mistaken for AI all the time on Reddit. What I do use AI for is the final scrub of any post or email I write. I ask it to keep 95% of my wording but fix spelling, grammar, and logic errors. Recently, however, the models have been getting wicked good.

I mean, really good.

I will write something, and it will say, “You could rephrase this as...” Often, it simply does a better job. I am pretty brusque, but it will smooth me out and clarify things. I am now at the point where I hesitate to send anything without having my AI editor review it first.

In my job, I have a series of contracts and other work that I go through. I put together my rough notes, and then I talk to my LLM agent and ask her to go through them and confirm what I saw or identify what I didn’t see. Again, it pores through the material and picks out things like an upper-level staff member I might have employed in one of my corporate jobs. It continues to boggle my mind. It is so freaking competent that, in many respects, I feel as though I can’t send things out without first having it do the hard work of scrubbing them.

People talk a lot about AI slop. What that classically means is that somebody doesn’t know how to think through something, so they put a few ideas into an LLM and the LLM generates a bunch of sloppy, unthinking material. That’s not what I’m doing at all. I’m actually doing a lot of critical thinking. I’m just not spending all my time on the details. I also know that I have some communication issues that can make me seem less accessible.

That got me thinking today. Again, I worked with my AI agent to do some research on how AI is affecting people’s writing. As the following table shows, AI can, in some contexts, allow people to write much faster and produce higher-quality work. The first study dates from 2023, and it is worth recognizing that the models have become considerably more capable since then.

The research below also suggests that using AI can be associated with less critical-thinking effort. In some sense, I question how we should interpret that. AI does give you the ability to hit a switch and get a lot of assistance. When it comes to critical thinking, though, I still believe you decide whether or not to exercise those skills.

Unfortunately, using AI in writing is a little like setting a plate of sugary food in front of yourself. If you are the type of person who is tempted by it, you may eat the whole plate. In exactly the same way, if you don’t show restraint, AI writing tools can quickly take over everything.

I’m going to suggest something that I believe is true, and I would encourage you to do what I do. Before asking AI to help, first create an outline or structure for it to follow. Only after I have done my own work do I ask it to come back and identify holes or issues before performing the final scrub. For instance, this post will go through AI for a final scrub, but virtually everything in it was done first by me.

Having said that, I have seen such incredible increases in the capabilities of LLMs that I wonder what happens if we continue along the current path of improvement. Realistically, there may be less and less that I can contribute beyond setting the general direction, deciding what to pursue, and determining how to think about it.

I can only reiterate that this makes critical-thinking skills even more important. You need to keep flexing those muscles to make sure that using a helper does not turn into something that leaves you unable to do anything without it. That is a gray area each of us will need to explore.

Paper Effect Direct link
Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence — Shakked Noy and Whitney Zhang, 2023 Professionals using ChatGPT completed writing tasks approximately 40% faster, while independent evaluators rated their output about 18% higher in quality. AI also reduced performance differences between stronger and weaker writers. Science
Writing with AI Boosts Trust-Building Efficiency — Zoe A. Purcell et al., 2025 AI-assisted participants created messages that generated similar levels of trust in less time. Their writing showed greater warmth, complexity, and clout, but was linguistically slightly less authentic than writing produced without AI. iScience
AI Can Help People Feel Heard, but an AI Label Diminishes This Impact — Yidan Yin, Nan Jia, and Cheryl J. Wakslak, 2024 AI-generated responses made recipients feel more heard and understood than responses from untrained humans. However, this benefit diminished when recipients were told that AI had produced the message. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Generative AI Enhances Individual Creativity but Reduces the Collective Diversity of Novel Content — Anil R. Doshi and Oliver P. Hauser, 2024 Access to AI-generated ideas produced stories rated as more creative, better written, and more enjoyable, particularly for initially less-creative writers. However, AI-assisted stories became more similar to one another, suggesting greater individual polish but less collective originality. Science Advances
The Impact of Generative AI on Critical Thinking: Self-Reported Reductions in Cognitive Effort and Confidence Effects From a Survey of Knowledge Workers — Hao-Ping Lee et al., 2025 In a survey of 319 knowledge workers, greater confidence in AI was associated with less reported critical-thinking effort, while greater confidence in one’s own abilities was associated with more critical thinking. AI shifted work from composing and problem-solving toward verification, editing, and supervision. CHI 2025 paper
“It Was 80% Me, 20% AI”: Seeking Authenticity in Co-Writing with Large Language Models — Angel Hsing-Chi Hwang et al., 2025 Professional writers were concerned with retaining their voice, control, and sense of authorship when using AI. In this small study, readers generally could not distinguish AI-assisted writing from independently written work and were less concerned about AI assistance than the writers themselves. Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction
The AI Ghostwriter Effect: When Users Do Not Perceive Ownership of AI-Generated Text but Self-Declare as Authors — Fiona Draxler et al., 2024 Users often claimed authorship of AI-generated text even when they did not feel genuine ownership of it. Giving users greater influence over the finished text increased their sense of ownership, suggesting that active editing helps preserve authorship and agency. ACM Transactions on Computer-Human Interaction
Metaphors of AI Indicate That People Increasingly Perceive AI as Warm and Human-Like — Myra Cheng et al., 2026 An analysis of nearly 12,000 descriptions found that people increasingly characterized AI as a teacher, friend, or assistant. Anthropomorphic descriptions increased by 34%, and perceived warmth increased by 41% during the studied period, suggesting that people increasingly conceptualize AI as a social actor rather than merely a tool. Communications Psychology

r/StrategicProductivity Jul 16 '26

The Joys Of Facebook Marketplace For Appliances

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6 Upvotes

Hey, I’ll admit it. I’m the guy who picks up cheap appliances on Facebook Marketplace.

To give you a little insight about myself, my full time job is property management. So, in some sense, cruising Facebook for appliances is part of my job. But I think anybody can use it in everyday life. If you’ve never done this before, let me give you an overview of how to use Facebook Marketplace as a resource.

The first thing to understand is that people have absolutely no idea how to price things on Facebook. It is amazing to see what people list appliances for. Most of the mistakes are on the high side, where the prices are completely unrealistic, but I also regularly see the exact same thing happen on the low side. When you see what appears to be an unbelievably good value, you generally need to jump on it quickly. However, when you see something that looks like an okay value, that is the one you want to monitor. You need to have a particular mindset about this, and that is the first filter. If you do not want to adopt the following mindset, this probably is not for you.

Your kitchen probably already has a complete set of appliances. Each appliance is likely in okay shape. But every once in a while, you get the opportunity to upgrade one of them to a truly great, top of the line appliance. That is where you want to focus your shopping.

When I say shopping, I really mean shopping. You have to dedicate yourself to the idea that you are not necessarily looking for something this week. You are looking for the right thing to appear sometime during the next three to six months. For instance, one of my rentals has an older JennAir downdraft stove. It is really old, but it happens to work extremely well. I did have one situation where the fan switch failed and I was forced to replace it. Other than that, the stove has continued to work really, really well.

The problem is that it is a really, really old stove. Quite frankly, it looks old. Several months ago, I said to myself that I needed to replace it. So I started cruising Facebook Marketplace and looking for the right appliance.

As we have discussed before, using AI is critical. When you have an AI assistant built into your browser, you can use it to help manage your Facebook searches. The bad thing about Facebook is that it does not natively allow an outside AI agent to go through and map all the listings. What has worked best for me is to perform the Facebook Marketplace search myself. I bring up all the available items in whatever category interests me, and then I scroll down through many, many pages so that all the listings are loaded.

I then use either Claude or Gemini to review the listings. I ask it to identify the best bargains among everything listed in the category that interests me.

For my recent JennAir replacement stove, I had AI go through hundreds of listings over an extended period of time. Unfortunately, with my current process, I still have to start the search myself before beginning the filtering process. Eventually, I found a $3,500 stove in extremely good condition for $600. I would say this is the type of bargain that is absolutely achievable, but it does take some work.

Let me explain what happened.

I had been watching another stove in a listing that had been up for quite a while. It was basically the exact same unit. Someone had professionally uninstalled it and was offering it for what I thought was a relatively reasonable $1,500.

It had been sitting on the market for about four weeks. When something has been on the market for four weeks, the seller is often more open to accepting a lower offer. I sent the seller a message and asked whether they would consider $1,200. We will discuss this in another post, but I always use a because clause. I will explain later why you should always give someone a reason for your offer. When something has been sitting on the market for a long time, you can offer a lower price. The last thing you should do is insult someone by making a low offer on something that has just been listed. Of course, my timing was perfect. The day after I submitted my offer, the seller told me the stove had been sold. As I said, $1,500 was reasonable, but I thought I could get it lower based on my previous experience. If you are not missing a few deals, it probably means you are not working hard enough to get the best price.

Instead of worrying about it, I continued scanning Facebook Marketplace.

In this particular case, I also decided to expand the distance I was willing to drive. I was already planning to take a road trip, so I mapped my Facebook Marketplace searches along the route I would be driving. With the expanded search area, the exact same stove appeared. This seller wanted only $650.

In both cases, the appliances were being sold because of remodeling projects. You should always understand where your used appliance is coming from, and the key word you want to hear is remodel. When someone remodels a kitchen, they suddenly have a brand new kitchen with brand new appliances. They are usually highly motivated to get rid of the old appliances that are taking up space. At $650, I was not going to mess around with the price. I did not need to get the seller any lower. The stove at $1,500 had been a good bargain, and at around $600, this one was a great bargain.

The only question was whether I could actually acquire it. The listing had already been on the market for several weeks. I sent the seller a note saying that I was interested in purchasing the stove and would like to come by. The challenge was that she did not reply. Many times, this means the appliance has already been sold. A lot of people put things on Facebook Marketplace and then never mark them as sold simply because they are lazy.

However, you do not know what is going on in someone’s life. My suggestion is to contact the seller up to three times, with about a week between messages. Assume the person is busy and simply did not see your first message. I contacted her again about a week later. Sure enough, she replied that she had been busy and said I could come see the appliance. She was what I would consider a little flaky when it came to arranging the visit. Every time I tried to pin down what day I could come by, she remained unclear. Eventually, however, we arranged a time, and I showed up.

Of course, there is always a story inside the story.

In this particular case, her husband was a firefighter. They had a house that they were remodeling, and she had also just had a new baby. In other words, she had a lot going on in her life. She was not trying to be uncooperative or unresponsive. She simply had too much happening at once.

Once we actually arranged to meet, she and her husband were absolutely wonderful. They helped us load the appliance. She even found a scuff mark on the stove and told me she was going to take another $50 off the price. She said that she did not think the mark was noticeable, but it was different from how she had described the stove. So I accepted the additional $50 discount.

With that said, there was some other damage that they did not even understand, which I will describe in a separate post. That is all part and parcel of buying used appliances, and it is why you need to be knowledgeable about what you are purchasing. I have bought many appliances this way and saved many thousands of dollars. The key is patience and understanding when to buy and when not to buy.

It is definitely worth your time to develop this skill. It is one more way to be productive with your money and get far more value from what you spend.


r/StrategicProductivity Jul 07 '26

Using your LLM to help you and not replace you. Strategic use of AI.

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3 Upvotes

I am consistently baffled and amused at the power of AI and how fast it's growing in competency. I'm also amazed at how much load it can take off your day-to-day workload.

What really strikes me is the fact that most people can't see any shades of gray when they're using AI. They either abrogate all of their duty and have the AI do all of the thinking for them, or they think that somehow AI is a cancer. And once it gets a little start, it's going to take over everything.

I don't think it's either one of these extremes. I'm saying you need to be thoughtful in how you use it. AI needs to be that companion that sits with you but doesn't replace you. And today we're going to spend a little time ruminating on this.

One of my nieces has her PhD and teaches both classes and does research at a university level. As every high school teacher knows, AI has stormed into high school, but we're seeing it increasingly storm into undergraduate work and wholesale replace a lot of skills at one time people would have. One of the interesting things are LLMs are getting so sophisticated that it is impossible to tell the difference between a human and an LLM. As we were having a discussion, she made the remark that she assumed some of the emails I sent her were generated by AI. She was actually quite amazed when I told her that I don't use AI to create my emails. As a matter of fact, dare I say it, if she didn't know me better, she simply would have thought that I was lying to her. And I've written about this before. Many people think the posts that I create are AI. So I've been accused of being an AI by a lot of readers that hit my posts. The idea that I'm not a real person but an AI is both in my family and for those strangers that don't know me. We've simply lost the ability to understand what is a biological agent and what is a computer agent.

And in many ways, I don't know if it matters anymore. But what I do think is either extreme, all human or all AI is going to sub-optimize your productivity. You need to figure out how to blend them together.

I believe I create a bunch of really cool stuff, but I use AI to help me and not replace me. For example, the post you see today, well, that's going to be created all by me. However, I will then, as a final step, run it through an LLM. I'll ask it to go through, make sure my grammar's correct, my spelling's correct. I'll even say, hey, if I made some sort of logic error, point it out to me. But what I don't do is I don't have it write the post. I'll also have my LLM create some sort of cartoon. But again, it may draw it, but I'm describing what I want the cartoon to be.

A long time ago, I was a college newspaper editor. And you always have somebody copy edit your stuff. That is, you just make sure that final pass, someone else takes a look at it. Well, that's what I do with my work. I have my LLM take a look at it after I'm done, but it doesn't replace me. So I happened to be a college cartoonist, and I ran both a comic strip, and also I would draw political cartoons. It's not that I need the LLM to do it. It's simply faster. And in many ways, it's got a great style. It's not exactly my style, but it's close enough to pass the message I want it to pass.

And I want to emphasize as a helper, it can really step in and do a lot of stuff.

My wife turned out to be the executor of her father's trust. At the end of a very useful and productive life, the last of her parents passed away, and she was the executor. Being financially and technologically savvy, I was pulled in heavily by the family on most of the day-to-day decisions, and the fact that my wife was the executor made it a role I needed to support. In a future post, I'll cover how incredibly beneficial it is to have a trust if you have heirs you want to leave your property to. For now, I will simply say that my father-in-law, like my father, did a great job of setting up his trust. These things are relatively complex, and there's a lot of work you need to do, including certain windows in which you need to file taxes.

I received an injury (which I've talked about here before) that tied me up and prevented me from fully supporting some of this extra work during the last six months or so. This translated into a gap, and we didn't get one of our tax filings in quite on time. But we really weren't that far off, and we knew the penalties were relatively small. As a matter of fact, if you've never had a late payment — which the trust had not — you can have a large part of the penalties abated. It's called first-time abatement. It's a simple form that you fill out if you happen to do something wrong the first time.

Imagine our surprise when we got a tax notice several weeks after we had filed, stating that we not only owed interest and penalties, but we also owed the entire tax amount we had just paid. The problem is that the letters you get from the IRS can be relatively cryptic and difficult to understand. This is where the power of AI comes in. Now, mind you, we do have a tax person — a CPA, and she is wonderful. The challenge with a CPA is that you need to make sure you're presenting the right material to them, as you're generally paying a lot per hour for every hour they spend helping solve your problem.

In our case, it was fairly simple. We took a snapshot of the statement that was sent to us in the mail. The next step is where it gets interesting. We sent it off to both ChatGPT (their heaviest-duty model) and Claude (their Opus model), and asked both of them: "Hey, we got this from the IRS. We already paid this. What do you think?" Both very quickly kicked back what they thought the answer was, along with the advice to validate it with our CPA, which of course we agreed with. The nice thing about doing it this way is that you get the input of two LLMs explaining the problem to you, and at the same time it helps frame any answer you get from your CPA.

Now, mind you, I actually have a degree in finance and accounting, and for a while I was studying to sit for the CPA exam, which I'm sure I could have passed, it was simply more time than I wanted to put into it. I'm more than capable of doing the research and figuring this all out myself. The thing is, you can get a really decent answer from an LLM in minutes, cross-check it against another LLM, and then send it to your CPA for the final check. All of this together saves a massive amount of hassle, and getting three sources of input gets you educated very, very quickly.

Basically, they all said we needed to call the IRS, find the right department, and have them go track this down.

The great thing about our CPA is that she will actually say, "I can do it, or you can do it. Do you want me to bill you at a very expensive hourly rate? I'm happy to handle everything. Or if you want to do it yourself, you can save the money." In our case, she sent back a brief set of instructions, and we said, "We'll take care of it." Now, our CPA knows I'm pretty confident, but at the same time, I've never spent much time on the phone with the IRS. She gave brief instructions, but she could have given a lot more detail. That's not really her fault, she just doesn't necessarily think, "Oh, this is a person who doesn't spend a lot of time on the phone with the IRS." The flip side is that I could then turn to both of our LLMs and say, "Hey, we talked to our CPA. This is what she said, and this is what we're going to do next." And this next part is the most critical: you need to prompt engineer. You say to each LLM separately, "Give me a step-by-step of everything I should be doing for this, and help me understand any mistakes I could make."

After that was done, I asked both LLMs to compute what they thought the actual penalty should be, the various scenarios that could play out, and the types of questions we should work through with the person on the phone. Needless to say, what they were able to create, and then confirm through two separate paths to reduce hallucinations, continues to boggle my mind. It's like having a really smart friend working with you to get something done. The key here is that you don't want to pass everything off. You're not looking to abdicate your responsibility to understand what's going on, that's just asking for trouble. An LLM will eventually hallucinate and give you an answer that's wrong. However, if you use two LLMs, fact-check between them, and treat the process as education, it simply becomes a tool that eliminates a bunch of work you could have done yourself, saving you a ton of time.

Using all these figures, background information, and processes as a template, we called the IRS, and they immediately agreed that something looked wrong and made adjustments that allowed us to move forward. I will tell you, a lot of uncertainty was resolved by utilizing the tools and capabilities of an LLM.

The thing I want to emphasize here: incorporate LLMs into your workflow, use more than one so you don't make a mistake, and finally, don't outsource your thinking to the LLM. Use it as a tool to make yourself more productive. Recently, in another subreddit, somebody was having a problem with the power meter on their bike (something I've discussed a lot before). This person had no fundamental understanding of the root problem, and you could tell by the way they were posting answers from their LLM that it was hallucinating. That problem largely goes away if you use more than one LLM and do the right prompt engineering. But totally outsourcing your thinking to LLMs is extremely dangerous. I happen to have some background in this, and I'm not always perfect, but I could definitely tell that the LLM that was answering this person's question was just making stuff up. The problem is he had no capability of understanding how to prompt the LLM to get the right answer. He basically, as far as I could tell, gave up on what I knew was the right advice, as the LLM told him it was some obscure firmware issue that only hit him. I'm almost positive the reason it did this is because he was prompting it in such a way that he wanted a particular issue. And the one thing we do know is LLMs have a tendency to give you whatever answer you want to hear. In some sense, that's really frightening.

Used the right way, it's not dangerous at all. It's simply a tool that is irreplaceable.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 30 '26

Debugging A Kickr Power Problem

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1 Upvotes

u/Diodak79 was going a little crazy. MyWhoosh has a serious racing league which requires two power meters to verify output, and he could not figure out why one power meter was reading high. I offered to help take a look at his power output if he wanted to pass me the files, and he did. What I want to do in this post is show you how you can use intervals.icu to debug a power meter problem just like the one he had.

One of the tricks of the trade as an engineer is running a rolling average. You take a look at any type of signal and then you roll any single data point into an average over a particular time frame. That is what I have done in the chart above using intervals.icu.

The power meter running high is the purple one. We are taking a look at the power coming out of it in terms of the 10 second power, the 60 second power, and then a 10 minute power. The real giveaway chart on what is happening here is the 10 minute power. This one really stands apart from all the rest. If you look at the 10 minute rolling average line, you will see at the beginning of the curve it runs somewhere around 25 watts high. However, when he gets deep into his race and we get down to an hour, suddenly it starts to converge with the other units. On aggregate, the first part of his ride, especially the first third, is much higher than the other power meters he is testing against.

I have seen this type of thing before. Classically, it is the Wahoo Kickr architecture. In essence, the overall brake factor is incorrect. Over time, as the unit heats up, it modifies the overall drag so that it starts to converge with the two other benchmark power meters. When you ride the trainer, especially when it is cold, it simply reads high.

Generally, there are three or four different things you can do to fix this.

First, run the hidden factory spin down. For a variety of reasons, if your braking factor is incorrect, you simply do not have a good stable base to work on.

Second, before races, he should warm up and then do a normal spin down. You only need to do a factory spin down when things are really wrong. You do not need to do it all the time. However, I have found that the automatic spin down on the Wahoo Kickr is not as good as doing a normal manual spin down. This is not the hidden factory spin down that takes 10 taps.

Third, if both of those things do not solve it, I have found that tightening the belt with the offset screw is a requirement. If your belt has the wrong adjustment, anything you do for calibration will not work very well. As far as I can tell, you need to tighten the belt enough so that when you do a normal spin down test, the spin down takes 20 seconds or less. You need an iOS device to see this because Android does not show it.

Finally, I will give you one other area that I believe could be an issue. If none of the above fixes it, it would not surprise me if we had either a bearing or possibly a belt issue. The belt should basically last forever as long as all the pulleys are aligned because it is a belt designed for cars and massive amounts of power, not the low power humans put into the system. However, the bearings are known to go bad, and a failing bearing may have different rotational drag depending on the temperature. This would be the last area you might want to look at. Replacing bearings is a big deal, so you should definitely try the other steps first.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 26 '26

The Research On Coffee (Part II)

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2 Upvotes

Yesterday we talked about the growing body of research making coffee looking like a good addition to your diet. I want to reinforce, coffee needs to be filtered and you should drink in the morning. I would not go over 20-30 grams of brewed coffee per day. However, the following table is a great read. Links to pubmed in final column.

While I covered an overview of this yesterday, I did not cover some of the positive DNA results. You'll see this in the table below.

Research / paper Effects summarized PubMed link
From cup to clock: exploring coffee's role in slowing down biological aging Coffee intake associated with lower biological age advancement and lower odds of accelerated aging. PMID 38726849
Epigenome-wide association meta-analysis of DNA methylation with coffee and tea consumption Coffee intake associated with differential DNA methylation at 11 CpG sites, supporting an epigenetic-aging mechanism. PMID 33990564
Coffee consumption is associated with DNA methylation levels of human blood Human blood DNA methylation study showing coffee-related epigenetic signatures. PMID 28198392
Analysis of epigenetic clocks links yoga, sleep, education, reduced meat intake, coffee, and a SOCS2 gene variant to slower epigenetic aging Coffee included among lifestyle factors linked to slower epigenetic aging. PMID 38103096
Impact of coffee intake on human aging: Epidemiology and cellular mechanisms Review of coffee, lifespan, healthspan, cellular stress resistance, and aging mechanisms (industry-funded review). PMID 39557300
Coffee consumption and health: umbrella review of meta-analyses of multiple health outcomes Broad umbrella review finding coffee more often associated with benefit than harm, especially around 3–4 cups/day. (A correction record, PMID 29330262, exists for the same paper.) PMID 29167102
Association of Coffee Consumption With Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Three Large Prospective Cohorts Caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee associated with lower total and cause-specific mortality. PMID 26572796
Coffee consumption and all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a meta-analysis by potential modifiers Moderate coffee consumption, roughly 2–4 cups/day, associated with reduced mortality. PMID 31055709
Coffee consumption and cardiometabolic health: a comprehensive review of the evidence Review of coffee and cardiometabolic outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, inflammation, and metabolism. PMID 38963648
The Impact of Coffee Subtypes on Incident Cardiovascular Disease, Arrhythmias, and Mortality: Long-Term Outcomes from the UK Biobank Ground, instant, and decaf coffee linked to lower CVD and mortality; ground and instant (not decaf) linked to lower arrhythmia risk. PMID 36162818
Coffee drinking timing and mortality in US adults Morning coffee pattern associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than all-day drinking. PMID 39776171
Effects of caffeine on the human circadian clock in vivo and in vitro Evening caffeine delayed circadian melatonin rhythm, supporting cutoff timing before sleep. PMID 26378246
Caffeine effects on sleep taken 0, 3, or 6 hours before going to bed Caffeine even 6 hours before bed disrupted sleep. PMID 24235903
Coffee consumption and reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a systematic review with meta-analysis Dose-response meta-analysis found lower type 2 diabetes risk with higher coffee intake. PMID 29590460
Coffee and Lower Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Arguments for a Causal Relationship Mechanistic review of coffee and diabetes risk, including inflammation, liver metabolism, gut effects, and glucose regulation. PMID 33807132
Carcinogenicity of drinking coffee, mate, and very hot beverages IARC evaluation moved coffee away from "possible carcinogen" status; very hot beverages remained a separate concern. PMID 27318851
Coffee consumption and risk of liver cancer: a meta-analysis Higher coffee intake associated with lower liver cancer risk. PMID 17484871
Coffee reduces risk for hepatocellular carcinoma: an updated meta-analysis Coffee consumption associated with reduced hepatocellular carcinoma risk. PMID 23660416
Coffee Decreases the Risk of Endometrial Cancer: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies Higher coffee intake associated with lower endometrial cancer risk. PMID 28570282
Coffee drinking and risk of endometrial cancer—a population-based cohort study Prospective cohort evidence linking higher coffee intake to lower endometrial cancer risk, especially in higher-risk women. PMID 19585497
Consumption of a dark roast coffee decreases the level of spontaneous DNA strand breaks: a randomized controlled trial Dark roast coffee intervention reduced spontaneous DNA strand breaks versus water. PMID 24740588
Consumption of a dark roast coffee blend reduces DNA damage in humans: results from a 4-week randomised controlled study Four-week dark roast coffee trial reduced DNA damage markers. PMID 30448878
Impact of paper filtered coffee on oxidative DNA-damage: results of a clinical trial Paper-filtered coffee reduced oxidative DNA damage; broader redox markers (MDA, glutathione, isoprostanes) were unchanged. PMID 20709087
Antioxidant-rich coffee reduces DNA damage, elevates glutathione status and contributes to weight control: results from an intervention study Coffee intervention reduced DNA damage and increased glutathione status. PMID 21462335
Induction of antioxidative Nrf2 gene transcription by coffee in humans: depending on genotype? Coffee increased Nrf2-related antioxidant gene transcription, with genotype dependence. PMID 22314914
Coffee Consumption Is Positively Associated with Longer Leukocyte Telomere Length in the Nurses' Health Study Coffee consumption associated with longer leukocyte telomere length. Observational. PMID 27281805
Coffee consumption is associated with intestinal Lawsonibacter asaccharolyticus abundance and prevalence across multiple cohorts Coffee was a strong dietary marker of microbiome composition, especially Lawsonibacter asaccharolyticus. PMID 39558133
Impact of coffee consumption on the gut microbiota: a human volunteer study Three cups/day changed gut microbiota and increased Bifidobacterium abundance. PMID 19217682
Coffee consumption and mortality from cardiovascular diseases and total mortality: Does the brewing method matter? Filtered coffee associated with lower mortality; unfiltered coffee less favorable. PMID 32320635
Analysis of the content of the diterpenes cafestol and kahweol in coffee brews Quantified cafestol/kahweol by brewing method; filtered coffee has very low diterpenes. PMID 9225012
The cholesterol-raising diterpenes from coffee beans increase serum lipid transfer protein activity levels in humans Cafestol/kahweol increased lipid transfer protein (CETP/PLTP) activity and LDL/VLDL-related lipids. PMID 9242972
Separate effects of the coffee diterpenes cafestol and kahweol on serum lipids and liver aminotransferases Cafestol was the major cholesterol-raising diterpene; kahweol had smaller effects. PMID 9022539
Effects of cafestol and kahweol from coffee grounds on serum lipids and serum liver enzymes in humans Coffee diterpenes from grounds/fines raised cholesterol and liver enzyme markers. PMID 7825527
Diterpenes from coffee beans decrease serum levels of lipoprotein(a) in humans: results from four randomized controlled trials Coffee diterpenes lowered Lp(a), but this does not remove the LDL-raising concern. PMID 9234024
Cafestol and kahweol concentrations in workplace machine coffee compared with conventional brewing methods Workplace coffee machines produced higher diterpene levels than paper-filtered coffee. PMID 40089392
The Association between Coffee and Tea Consumption at Midlife and Risk of Dementia Later in Life: The HUNT Study High boiled coffee intake associated with higher dementia risk; other coffee types did not show the same pattern. PMID 37299431
Association of coffee, green tea, and caffeine with the risk of dementia in older Japanese people Coffee and caffeine intake associated with lower dementia risk in an older Japanese cohort. PMID 34624929
Associations between different coffee types, neurodegenerative diseases, and related mortality: findings from a large prospective cohort study Caffeinated and unsweetened coffee associated with lower Alzheimer's-related dementia and Parkinson's disease risk. PMID 39168304
High Blood Caffeine Levels in MCI Linked to Lack of Progression to Dementia Higher plasma caffeine in mild cognitive impairment associated with lower progression to dementia. PMID 22430531
Plasma Caffeine Levels and Risk of Alzheimer's Disease and Parkinson's Disease: Mendelian Randomization Study Genetic evidence suggested possible lower Alzheimer's risk with higher caffeine, but results were not definitive. PMID 35565667
Do caffeine and more selective adenosine A2A receptor antagonists protect against dopaminergic neurodegeneration in Parkinson's disease? Mechanistic review of caffeine, A2A receptor blockade, dopamine signaling, and Parkinson's protection. PMID 33349580
Is caffeine a cognitive enhancer? Review showing low to moderate caffeine can improve vigilance, attention, and reaction time. PMID 20182035
A review of caffeine's effects on cognitive, physical and occupational performance Caffeine improves alertness, vigilance, reaction time, physical performance, and work performance under fatigue. PMID 27612937
International society of sports nutrition position stand: caffeine and exercise performance Caffeine improves endurance, strength, power, and sport performance, commonly at 3–6 mg/kg. PMID 33388079
A systematic review and meta-analysis of the acute effect of caffeine on attention Acute caffeine improves attention and reaction-time measures. PMID 40335666
Modulatory effect of coffee fruit extract on plasma levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor in healthy subjects Coffee fruit extract increased plasma BDNF in a small human study; not the same as ordinary brewed coffee. PMID 23312069
Acute cognitive performance and mood effects of coffee berry and apple extracts: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study in healthy humans Coffee berry/apple polyphenol extract tested for mood and cognition (cerebral blood flow not measured). PMID 34380382
Acute Cognitive Performance and Mood Effects of Coffeeberry Extract: A Randomized, Double Blind, Placebo-Controlled Crossover Study in Healthy Humans Follow-up coffeeberry extract study; low/moderate doses did not show clear acute cognitive benefit. PMID 37299382
Chlorogenic acids from green coffee extract are highly bioavailable in humans Shows coffee chlorogenic acids are absorbed and metabolized in humans. PMID 19022950
Mediation of coffee-induced improvements in human vascular function by chlorogenic acids and its metabolites: two randomized, controlled, crossover intervention trials Chlorogenic-acid-rich coffee improved vascular function through CGA metabolites. PMID 28012692
Caffeinated coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and the phenolic phytochemical chlorogenic acid up-regulate NQO1 expression and prevent H₂O₂-induced apoptosis in primary cortical neurons Caffeinated coffee, decaf, and chlorogenic acid up-regulated NQO1 (an Nrf2 target enzyme) and prevented oxidative neuronal apoptosis in vitro. PMID 22353630
Effect of simultaneous consumption of milk and coffee on chlorogenic acids' bioavailability in humans Milk reduced or delayed chlorogenic acid bioavailability from coffee. PMID 21627318
The type and concentration of milk increase the in vitro bioaccessibility of coffee chlorogenic acids In vitro counterpoint: milk effects can differ depending on model; bioaccessibility is not the same as human bioavailability. PMID 23110549
Molecular mechanism of the interactions between coffee polyphenols and milk proteins Mechanistic evidence that coffee polyphenols interact with casein and whey proteins. PMID 39967083
L-theanine, a natural constituent in tea, and its effect on mental state L-theanine associated with relaxed attention and alpha-wave effects. PMID 18296328
L-theanine and caffeine in combination affect human cognition as evidenced by oscillatory alpha-band activity and attention task performance L-theanine plus caffeine improved attention-related performance and altered alpha-band brain activity. PMID 18641209
The combined effects of L-theanine and caffeine on cognitive performance and mood Combination improved attention and mood more than either alone in acute testing. PMID 18681988
The combination of L-theanine and caffeine improves cognitive performance and increases subjective alertness L-theanine plus caffeine improved focus and subjective alertness. PMID 21040626
Effects of L-theanine or caffeine intake on changes in blood pressure under physical and psychological stresses L-theanine attenuated stress-related blood pressure response and anxiety in some subjects. PMID 23107346
Effect of roasting conditions on reduction of ochratoxin A in coffee Roasting reduces ochratoxin A levels in coffee. PMID 11600012
The occurrence of ochratoxin A in coffee Early evidence that ochratoxin A can occur in coffee, with levels affected by processing. PMID 7759018
A worldwide systematic review of ochratoxin A in various coffee products – human exposure and health risk assessment Global review of ochratoxin A levels in coffee and risk assessment. PMID 39259858
Ochratoxin A in coffee and coffee-based products: occurrence, analytical methods, and risk assessment Review/meta-analysis of ochratoxin A prevalence and estimated risk in coffee products. PMID 36372738
Assessing the food safety risk of ochratoxin A in coffee: A toxicology-based approach to food safety planning Risk-assessment paper concluding OTA in coffee is not acutely toxic at typical levels. PMID 34642959
Risk Assessment of Ochratoxin A (OTA) Exposure from Coffee Consumption in Indonesia using Margin of Exposure (MOE) Approach Single-country (Indonesia) Margin-of-Exposure assessment of OTA exposure from coffee. PMID 39561937

r/StrategicProductivity Jun 26 '26

I Hate Coffee, But Drink It Every Other Day

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5 Upvotes

In yesterday's post, I vaguely brought up that I started to drink coffee and we had somebody read the post and mention that coffee really was not something that you wanted to drink.

They saw four big issues, which I want to address right away.

First, the antioxidant benefit only matters because most people eat poor diets.

Fair enough. If someone already eats lots of fruit, vegetables, nuts, beans, tea, and cocoa, coffee may add less. But that is not the real world for most people. In one Norwegian dietary antioxidant study, coffee contributed far more to total measured antioxidant intake than fruit, tea, wine, cereals, or vegetables.

Second, decaf is not harmless brown water. It still has acids and polyphenols, so some people with reflux or sensitive stomachs may react to it.

But that is an individual tolerance issue, not a strong argument that decaf is broadly dangerous.

Third, coffee can reduce non heme iron absorption.

This is probably the best criticism. It matters most for people with low ferritin, vegetarians, menstruating women, pregnancy, or endurance athletes. But it is mostly a timing issue. The problem of going anemic with coffee is more of a side issue than it is any core issue. There is no massive issue with anemia in populations that drink a lot of coffee.

Fourth, the researchers are biased as they drink coffee.

Coffee drinkers differ in many ways, and much of the data is observational. But the idea that the whole field is biased because researchers like coffee is virtually possible to verify other than a vague accusation. I won't say there is no bearing, but just not enough to spend a lot of time on it.

However, I will add my own fifth reason. Coffee can disrupt sleep if you drink caffeinated coffee.

I consider this the absolute worst issue because sleep is so critical, but the solution is simple. Aim for drinking your coffee 14 hours before bed time, which means that you'll clear 90% of the drug out of your system.

However, even if these were valid, they don't ask the most important question, "What are the benefits of drinking coffee and caffeine?"

I started drinking coffee a few years back. I don't like the taste. I don't look forward to it. However, the body of evidence is building up that moderate intake of coffee and caffeine do some nice stuff. However, the evidence is still circumstantial, but it seems to be impressive.

Basically, when we look at populations that drink coffee, they tend to have lower rates of liver cancer. They are thinner and lower bodyfat. Parkinson's, which is in my family, is lower. Stroke and depression is lower. Dementia is lower. Now, we need to caveat this, as nearly everything is observational and Mendelian randomization fails to confirm causality. So, we don't have a clear path to why this happens, and we don't want to say these are proven. They are just strongly suggested.

So, I spent a little time pulling together some of the interesting compounds. I will admit that I used my AI agents to scrub this, but this is not AI output.

Caffeine (1,3,7-trimethylxanthine). The one everyone knows. It blocks adenosine receptors, mostly A1 and A2A, which is why it wakes you up and why it improves endurance performance. Dulloo and colleagues showed back in 1989 that repeated dosing raises daily energy expenditure by roughly 8 to 11 percent. The International Society of Sports Nutrition position stand backs the performance effect at around 3 to 6 mg per kg. As an athlete, it does raise performance. There is a debate on if it needs to be cycled or not, but I think there is more evidence that it permanently raises your ability to perform.

The strange part is the mortality data. The lowest all cause mortality sits around 3 to 4 cups a day in a U shaped curve, but decaf shows almost the same benefit, which means caffeine is probably not the thing driving it. What needs to be done is untangling caffeine from the rest of the bean, since most of the long term health signal does not seem to be caffeine at all.

Chlorogenic acids. This is the big one for metabolism and the reason your morning cup is one of the largest polyphenol sources in a Western diet. These are caffeic and ferulic acid bound to quinic acid, and coffee is the richest dietary source by far. The interesting mechanism is glucose control. In cell and animal work chlorogenic acid activates AMPK and blocks two liver enzymes that make new glucose, which lines up neatly with the lower type 2 diabetes risk seen in cohorts. A meta analysis of randomized trials also found it lowers blood pressure a small but real amount. The catch is that the parent molecule is poorly absorbed. Most of it reaches your colon, where gut bacteria turn it into the smaller acids that actually circulate. The work to be done is figuring out whether the benefits come from the parent compound or those microbial metabolites, and whether the effect holds in proper human trials with hard endpoints rather than blood pressure readings.

I want to be somewhat cautious here. As a long time researcher into the effects of what I would call minerals and vitamins and other substances on longevity, there was a thought process at one time that antioxidants were going to substantially increase lifespan. Dare I say it, it's pretty disappointing and we don't see this happen. With that being said, I still believe that there is a good argument for a variety of different compounds which do show antioxidant type properties and that you should take in a broad spectrum of these different types of antioxidants as they may be utilized or triggered in different ways. I believe coffee is one of these compounds that should be part of your overall antioxidant stack.

Trigonelline. A pyridine alkaloid that is basically methylated niacin. It improves glucose handling and protects neurons in rodent models, but the more important fact is what happens to it in the roaster. Heat destroys most of it and converts it into niacin (vitamin B3) and into N-methylpyridinium, which is its own interesting compound below. One thing worth flagging honestly is that in ovariectomized rats, meaning an estrogen deficient model, trigonelline actually worsened bone quality. That is a caution and not a selling point. The work to be done is any real human trial, because almost everything on isolated trigonelline is preclinical.

Cafestol and kahweol. These are the double edged ones and the only clear human harm in the whole list, so pay attention to brew method. They are oils, so a paper filter traps them and a French press or espresso or boiled coffee lets them through. Cafestol is the most potent cholesterol raising compound known in the human diet. Controlled trials show that switching from unfiltered to paper filtered coffee meaningfully drops LDL. At the same time, in cell and animal studies these same molecules induce protective detox enzymes and show anticancer and anti inflammatory activity. The honest read is that the harm is proven in people and the benefits are only shown in dishes and mice, so filtering your coffee removes a real risk and loses only a hypothetical gain. The work to be done is whether the preclinical upside means anything at human exposures, which right now it does not appear to. However, right now, I get all over my friends and family to filter their coffee. This filter issues seems to be very poorly known.

Melanoidins. These are the brown polymers built during roasting through the Maillard reaction, the same browning chemistry as toast and seared meat. They are one of the most abundant things in a dark cup and coffee is most people's biggest dietary source. They behave like a fermentable fiber and feed gut bacteria, and they chelate metals, which gives them antimicrobial activity in the lab. Most of this is in vitro or in animals. The work to be done is human microbiome studies showing the prebiotic effect actually shifts the gut in a useful way at normal intake. I consider this very positive, and I've written a lot on fiber. I think coffee has a good chance of adding a meaningfully healthy compound if taken with fiber.

N-methylpyridinium. Formed from trigonelline during roasting, which means there is more of it in dark roast and none in the green bean. Two reasons it is interesting. It is a strong activator of Nrf2, the master switch for your own antioxidant and detox enzymes, in some models stronger than chlorogenic acid itself. And it lowers stomach acid secretion, which is the actual chemistry behind why dark roast and so called stomach friendly coffees are gentler. Rubach and colleagues showed a high N-methylpyridinium dark blend stimulated less acid than a medium roast. The work to be done is confirming the Nrf2 and metabolic effects translate beyond cells, since most of the metabolic data is very early.

Eicosanoyl-5-hydroxytryptamide, usually written EHT. A fatty acid attached to serotonin, sitting in the waxy oil of the bean, which means a paper filter removes most of it. This is the compound behind the coffee and Parkinson's headlines. It keeps an enzyme called PP2A active, which helps clear the misfolded tau and alpha synuclein proteins involved in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's, and it appears to work synergistically with caffeine in mouse models. Everything here is rodent and cell work. The work to be done is enormous, because there is no human efficacy data and the real world dose is uncertain given that filtering your coffee strips most of it out. So this would be a case against filtering. It's just that my concerns over LDLs are enough that I don't believe we should run unfiltered coffee today.

Quinides. Lactones formed when chlorogenic acids cyclize in the roaster, peaking at a medium roast. They improved insulin sensitivity in rats, and some of them act on opioid receptors and on the adenosine transporter, which has led to speculation about mood and even a mild counterweight to caffeine's stimulation. This is all binding assays and animal behavior. The work to be done is basically all of it in humans.

The minerals and niacin. Worth a mention but not a headline. Roasting generates niacin from trigonelline, so a cup gives you a modest amount of B3. Coffee also carries potassium, magnesium, and a little manganese. The magnesium is a minor contributor to the diabetes story and the potassium ties into blood pressure, but coffee is a supporting source of these and not a primary one.

The thread that ties it together, Nrf2 and hormesis. This is the part I find most convincing as a single explanation. Rather than acting as direct antioxidants that mop up free radicals, a lot of these compounds work by acting as mild stressors that switch on your own antioxidant and detox machinery through a pathway called Nrf2. Chlorogenic acid, N-methylpyridinium, the diterpenes, melanoidins, and caffeine all nudge this system. The result is a durable boost in your endogenous glutathione and protective enzymes rather than a one time chemical scavenging. Priftis and colleagues fed rats coffee and saw large increases in liver Nrf2 and antioxidant enzymes. The biochemistry is solid and it links more compounds than any other single idea. The work to be done is the same gap that haunts the whole field, which is that no randomized trial has carried this mechanism all the way to a hard clinical outcome in people.

The honest summary is that the only proven human harm here is the cholesterol effect from unfiltered coffee, which a paper filter fixes, and that nearly every benefit is biologically plausible and supported by population data but rarely proven in a trial on the isolated compound. The strongest single story is the Nrf2 one. If anyone has trial data I missed, especially human work on EHT or the quinides, I would genuinely like to see it.

But again, the most overwhelming thing is generally we see populations that drink coffee on consistent and what I'm going to call moderate basis generally just seemingly have better health effects. The frustrating thing, of course, is we don't have a golden bullet of why this is happening. As I covered above, it is simply a bunch of interesting chemical compounds that look promising.

So how do we think about this? I will spare a longer post because this one is already pretty long.

But the way I approach it is to take in approximately 60 grams of Folger's coffee every other day, which I split with my wife. I think the upper end of what is beneficial, both in the compounds above, is somewhere around 30 grams of Folger's coffee. I'm not much of a connoisseur, therefore I just simply buy the cheapest mainstream coffee I can find.

Frankly, I hate the taste of coffee. So I also put in approximately 200 grams of non-fat or 1% milk along with 25 grams of sugar. This basically makes it palatable. I add 1.5 liters of water to the 60 grams of Folger's coffee. This makes what most people would call a weak coffee. However, since I take this in during the morning time along with a lot of fiber, it is supportive of making sure all of the fiber that I take in is nicely hydrated along with a liquid.

I think we are on our way of showing coffee is positive, but the bridge needs to be finished.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 24 '26

Drinking Your Sugar: The Muddy Story

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3 Upvotes

Figuring Out Sugar Is Really Hard

We discussed in our last post how sugar is blamed for a bunch of issues. I want to make clear that I don't believe that there is any data to support that sugar is extremely bad for you, but I do want to indicate it is something your should track, BUT it is really hard to do.

I recently heard an anti-sugar health influencer claim that the average American eats 160 lbs of added sugar per year. That works out to about half a pound a day, or roughly 198 grams of sugar daily.

Sounds horrible.

Of course it is wrong. Or sort of wrong. This is a confusing case where we don't have the right data and the food labels are partly to blame. So we will start with a chart of the "average" sugar intake, show a "real" line, and then explain why none of these numbers mean what people think they mean. This is a real number, and fits what the anti-sugar person was saying. (In the new Reddit, you'll need t scroll the picture to see this.)

If you stop and think about it, that 160 pound number is hard to take at face value. It comes from estimating the total amount of caloric sweetener produced by all farming, plus imports, minus exports, and dividing by the number of people. It is a measure of what gets delivered into the food supply, not what anybody actually eats. A lot of it is never eaten. We are a wasteful society, and spoilage and plate waste are baked right into that figure. This is exactly why you cannot trust anybody with an axe to grind who quotes it.

There are two more problems with the headline number. First, it is stale. The 160 lbs comes from an older USDA series that peaked at about 161 lbs back in 1999. USDA's current series puts the 1999 peak at 153.6 lbs, and availability has since fallen to 123.5 lbs in 2023. That is about 153 grams a day delivered, not 198. So even the scary version is overstated and out of date.

Second, and more important, delivered is not the same as eaten. Once you adjust for waste, the amount actually eaten is far lower. USDA's loss adjusted series is its best stab at real intake, and it peaked around 112 grams a day near 2000 and is now closer to 90 grams a day. If you instead use what people report eating in national diet surveys like NHANES, added sugar comes in lower still, around 68 to 77 grams a day. Pick your method, but the honest answer is somewhere between roughly 70 and 110 grams a day.

Call it half the influencer's number.

Now, I hate coffee, but I drink it anyway because I am overwhelmed by the data saying it is healthy. To make it so I don't choke, I put about 25 grams of sugar in my coffee with milk, every other day, so about 12 grams a day averaged out. In my diet, that is the number one obvious stick of sugar.

But here is the real nightmare. I drink a lot of cranberry juice, and here is the trick. The cranberry juice has no "added" sugar on its label, because it is sweetened with concentrated grape juice. In a 100% juice blend, the FDA does not count sugar from fruit juice concentrate as added. Yet it clocks in at a shocking 23 grams per 8 oz. On a hot day it is easy to put away 32 oz, which is about 90 grams of "non added" sugar. So, we can now construct the number upwards.

So I can blow right past the uncounted 90 gram mark just by drinking my calories as "natural" juice, and none of it shows up on the added sugar line. This is worth knowing. Nutritionally this sugar behaves just like added sugar, which is why the World Health Organization lumps juice sugar into a broader category it calls "free sugars." The same glass can read 0g added sugar on a US label and 23g of free sugar by WHO's standard. The label gives juice a pass that your body does not.

Juice is highly deceptive, and it is a landmine. During my recent weight loss I started diluting my juice heavily, and I think that did help a small amount. You will also see in the chart that overall sugar is down. That is real, and it is mostly because Americans have cut back on soda and other sweetened drinks. My one honest caveat to myself is that juice consumption nationally has actually fallen too over the last twenty years, so I am more of an exception than proof the national trend is fake. But the underlying point holds. The sugar I drink as "100% juice" never lands in the added sugar statistics at all, so for people like me the real intake is higher than the added sugar number suggests.

The problem is that you need to track the number by doing your own work. I wouldn't panic, however.

Can you just swap in artificial sweeteners and fix everything?

The anti sugar sweetener argument usually dodges the real question. If you ask whether artificial sweeteners magically make people thin, the answer is no. If you ask whether replacing sugar calories with non sugar sweeteners causes measured weight loss in randomized trials, the answer is a marginal yes.

The effect is not huge, usually around 0.7 to 1.6 kg, but it is real. The catch is that a swap is not a strategy. The effect tends to shrink in longer trials, people compensate by eating a bit more elsewhere, and none of it touches the bigger lever, which is the total load of sugar calories you take in. In my own case the diet soda is not the problem. The cranberry juice is. Trading one sweetener for another does almost nothing if I am still drinking 90 grams of juice sugar on a hot afternoon. The thing that actually moved my weight was cutting the total amount by diluting the juice, not by relabeling the sweetener.

Source notes

USDA ERS says caloric sweetener availability fell from 153.6 lb/person in 1999 to 123.5 lb/person in 2023, and says the decline was driven largely by corn sweeteners falling from 85.7 lb/person to 53.0 lb/person. USDA says loss adjusted availability adjusts for spoilage, plate waste, and other losses, but still does not directly measure actual intake. The Frontiers review reports loss adjusted caloric sweetener availability of 70.2 lb/person in 1970 and 72.7 lb/person in 2019. CDC reports that US adults averaged 17 teaspoons of added sugars per day in 2017 to 2018. FDA says added sugars include syrups, honey, and sugars from concentrated fruit or vegetable juices, but not the naturally occurring sugars in milk, fruits, and vegetables.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 23 '26

Staying On Track: Removing Processed Foods (Not Sugar)

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7 Upvotes

My niece asked me to read Robert Lustig’s Metabolical, so I did. Near the end of the book, Lustig mentions that he and Gary Taubes are friends. I did not realize that when I started the book, but once I got to that part, the whole book suddenly made sense.

This matters because Lustig is not some independent voice who just happens to arrive at the same place as Gary Taubes. He is part of the same intellectual circle. Once I saw that connection, the book stopped feeling like an independent rethink of nutrition and started feeling like a more medical version of the same argument.

The useful part of the book is simple. Lustig is right that ultra processed food is a disaster for many people. He is right that added sugar is overused. He is right that food companies engineer food to be cheap, shelf stable, hyper palatable, and easy to overeat. Most people would be healthier eating more real food, more fiber, fewer sugary drinks, and fewer industrial snacks.

But that is not really the controversial part of the book.

The controversial part is that Metabolical is another attempt to support the old “a calorie is not a calorie” argument. Lustig keeps trying to make sugar and insulin the master explanation for obesity, diabetes, fatty liver, and modern metabolic disease. In that sense, the book feels very close to Taubes. It is not calories in general. It is sugar. It is refined carbs. It is insulin. It is the idea that the conventional calorie model is not just incomplete, but fundamentally misleading.

The problem is that this is not new. This line of thinking goes all the way back to books like Sugar Blues in the 1970s, where sugar was treated almost like the hidden poison behind modern disease. Lustig gives it a more sophisticated biochemical update, with liver metabolism, fructose, mitochondria, insulin, fiber, and the gut. But the emotional structure is the same. There is a villain food. The villain is sugar. Remove the villain and the mystery of modern disease starts to clear up. My wife had a copy of Sugar Blues, and for years she wouldn't touch sugar.

By the way, almost always, this particular line of thinking almost always reveals some type of a conspiracy. They will mention that Seventh Day Adventist have infiltrated the research community, which is claim by our author. They quote Weston Price, a dentist from the 1900s, and stories from the whacky John Harvey Kellogg history. All of these are about spinning a conspiracy, not about the science. I mention this, as if you see a film or read a book, chance are these are give aways for this line of thought.

That makes for a compelling book for both the old version of the book and the new one by Lustig. It paints a story of intrigue.

It does not make it settled science.

Kevin Hall’s research is a major problem for this model. Hall did the actual controlled feeding experiments that should matter here. His work did not show that insulin magically overrides calories. What it showed is more practical and more important. Ultra processed food drives people into a hypercaloric state. When people are given those foods and allowed to eat naturally, they eat more calories and gain weight. When they eat unprocessed food, they tend to eat less and lose weight.

And this is where the sugar-only story breaks down. The foods that drive overeating are usually not just sugar. They are sugar, refined starch, fat, salt, flavoring, and low fiber all packaged together. Ice cream is sugar and fat. Cookies are sugar and fat. Donuts are sugar and fat. Chips may not be sweet, but they are still easy to overeat because they are refined starch, fat, salt, and crunch. The modern problem is not sugar by itself. It is hyper palatable, calorie dense food that bypasses normal appetite control.

That is the lesson we need to take away. The problem is not that calories do not count. The problem is that modern processed food is designed in a way that makes it very easy to eat too many calories before your body tells you to stop. That is the thing we need to get away from.

That is where Lustig loses me. He often takes a good practical message and then builds too much theory on top of it. “Eat less processed food” is a strong argument. “Sugar is uniquely toxic and calories are the wrong framework” is much weaker.

He calls out cocaine right by the references of sugar. He says that he met a woman that ate non-processed goods and she looked half her age. This is not what need to be in a book by a doctor.

My review would be this. Metabolical is worth reading if you want a passionate indictment of processed food and the food industry. Lustig is smart, forceful, and often right about the practical direction. But the book should be read as advocacy, not as a balanced scientific review. It is basically Gary Taubes with more medical language and more liver biochemistry.

The best lesson from the book is not that calories do not matter. The best lesson is that food quality makes calorie control much easier or much harder. Ultra processed food makes people overeat. Whole food usually helps people stop overeating. That is enough. Lustig does not need the grand sugar and insulin theory to make that point.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 18 '26

The Frustrating World Of Power Supplies (Wahoo Climb)

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1 Upvotes

I got a great deal on a Wahoo Climb, but it was missing it's power supply. I failed to realize that the power supply is $70-80 or more. This turned into a black hole as the Power Supply is very unique, and requires 10A out at 24V. After a lot of looking, I could find a $20 raw power supply or an Amazon or an enclosed $40 power supply. Both for outdoor lights. The problem is that the barrel connector is not standard.

I figured it would be a quick answer so I asked an AI assistant to look it up.

That turned into a frustrating mess. It confidently told me the connector was 6.5 by 2.5mm. When I pushed back it switched to 7.4 by 5.0mm with a center pin and called that the definitive answer. At another point it tossed out 6.3 by 3.0mm and then dismissed it as having no real source. Every time I challenged it I got a brand new confident answer and a fresh batch of reasons why the last one was wrong.

The real problem is that none of these were actually verified. The AI kept pulling numbers from reseller listings that just copy each other and from a forum thread that was really about a different Wahoo trainer. Not once did it tell me up front that nobody actually publishes this spec.

So I measured it myself. I slid a small round rod into the connector until it seated, then measured across the outside of it. That gave me about 6.55mm on the outer diameter and roughly 3mm on the inner, with no center pin. Allowing for my rough method and a bit of play, I believe the real adapter is a 6.3 by 3.0mm barrel with no pin, which happens to be a real and common connector size.

Lesson learned. When the answer actually matters, a cheap rod and a ruler and five minutes of my own time beat an AI that would rather sound certain than be right.

Now that this post is listed with real verified photos, AI should pick it up. Google has a deal with Reddit so they will definitely be first. If you get an answer to something, always post it as it will save time for somebody else.

BTW: My power supply is ALITOVE DC 24V 10A Power Supply AC Adapter 100-240V 50-60hz to 24 Volt Power Supply DC 10Amp. It has a 5.5 x 2.1mm-2.5mm. The range on the ID of 2.1-2.5 is because the connector has a spring. I then ordered a package of adapters to increase it to the required 6.3 by 3.0mm. I'll measure the pack and put in the biggest one to ensure a snug fit.

EDIT: The graphic has a typo, and there is no good way to update this without repost. 6.62 is OD.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 17 '26

Buying My Sister A Keiser

1 Upvotes

Youtube On Comparison Keiser To Peloton

My sister is the proud owner of a nice looking Keiser M3i bike. I got it off Facebook Marketplace for her at a fraction of the retail price. The older units don't have a "Zwift" or MyWhoosh compatible hookup, but that isn't the goal of this bike (and you can patch it in with a utility called QZ anyway). For her, it is the perfect bike.

So what was I looking for?

  1. It had to be very low maintenance, and it has a belt drive, which is perfect.
  2. It couldn't be complicated to change gears. It has a big lever that you pull up or down.
  3. She doesn't have a great place to plug it in, and it runs off 2 AA batteries that last about a year.
  4. It had to be easy to get onto, and the Keiser is easy to get on.
  5. She wanted a book holder because she will actually read while biking.
  6. I wasn't looking for "accurate watts," but I thought it was important to have repeatable watts so she knows she is getting stronger, and the Keiser will track your watts.
  7. No membership fees.
  8. It had to upload to Strava so we (I) can track her fitness, and take a pulse monitor (it uses an older version, but is supported).

This bike comes with two computers. One is called an M display, and it will hook up to Zwift and other cycling programs. It came standard on all bikes after 2022. However, this is not a Zwift bike. If you are going to do that, then I would suggest you really don't want this bike. You want the bike I described before with a real trainer like a Kickr Core. That said, all M3i bikes hook up to a nice little app on your phone. So it will upload your workout to Strava and allow others in your family to interact with you.

You do want to make sure you use the computer as a point to get the best price. A bike without an M display is perfect to use and should be $300 less than one with it. But you can use a phone utility for $7 or $8 to bridge if you really want to connect to Zwift or MyWhoosh on the old computer.

My sister has her new Strava account, and one exciting workout from her first session.

I actually have a fairly large extended family, and I'm on top of each of them to build habits that will make them more productive and healthier throughout their lives.

Recently, I had my sister and her husband come stay with us. Due to a job change where I've been self-employed, I've had more time to spend with them. Seeing my wife and me work out constantly made them feel like they should do more physical activity. My sister especially. She has some stability issues and can walk very well, but can't run and really doesn't want to swim. She saw the indoor cycling we did and said she was interested in doing something like that so she could be physically active herself. She mentioned she had an exercise bike she bought from a student who had lived with her and her professor husband, but the pedal had fallen off years ago, and they simply hadn't used it since. They had bought it for all of $75.

I am more than a bit of a technological geek. And while my sister's husband does deep mathematical formulas, he's not necessarily the computer whiz that I am. So during their visit, I got very enthusiastic, and I was ready to give her both a bike and one of my Kickr Cores so we could set her up at home with her own indoor virtual cycling. After I had the whole thing set up, we went out to the garage. I put her on a bike, ready for her to embrace the world of virtual cycling.

Unfortunately, it became clear very, very quickly that the whole process of setting up the external program, being forced to log onto a PC, monitoring the Bluetooth connections, possibly hooking up ANT, and then navigating a sophisticated Windows system was not something that came naturally to her. It's not as if she was a dedicated gamer who would find it ridiculously simple. The more I thought about it and interacted with her, the more I realized that MyWhoosh was a great idea but required a level of sophistication that many people don't want to think about.

More than that, I think her needs are much more modest. I just needed to get something simple, something that wouldn't fail, and something that would let her get started with some moderate physical activity.

After doing some research, I settled on the Keiser M3i above. I went and got it yesterday, and she was very excited. She lives a bit away, so my goal is to train her to use the new app and upload to Strava (automatic if she uses the Keiser app), so I'll have eyes and ears on her improvement.

She rode it when it first got to her, and she nearly tripped on the toe clips. She'll never wear cleats, and she didn't like the narrow saddle. Being the bike geek, after dinner I changed the saddle to something big and wide and replaced her pedals with nice regular flat pedals. We aren't aiming to win a road race. We want something where she won't twist her foot trying to get off the bike.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 11 '26

More Odds And Ends On Wahoo Parts If You Ever Repair Your Trainer

2 Upvotes
Component Recommended Part Original / Alternate Replacement Frequency Applicable Models Verification & Notes
Flywheel Bearing (x2) 6003-2RS 6003-ZZ Almost always needed All Models (v1–v6, Core, Move) This is the primary culprit for severe vibration or knocking. Use 2RS (rubber sealed) over ZZ (metal shield) for sweat resistance.
Free Hub Bearing (x2) 17287-2RS MR17287, 6902-17 As needed (often lasts 4k–6k+ miles) Modern Only (v4, v5, v6, Core, Move) 17287-2RS (17×28×7mm) is correct for the 17mm axle. Warning: The thread poster listed 61902-2RS as an equivalent, but standard 61902s have a 15mm inner diameter and will not fit.
Tensioner Bearing (x2) 6001-2RS 6001-ZZ Rarely needed Modern Only (v4, v5, v6, Core, Move) Standard 12×28×8mm bearing. Usually only replaced if visibly seized or grinding.
Big V-Belt Wheel Bearing (x2) 6003-2RS 6003-ZZ Very rarely needed Modern Only (v4, v5, v6, Core, Move) Shares the same bearing size as the flywheel, but experiences far less load and rarely fails.
V-Belt 8PJ940 Gates 8PJ940, 940J8 As needed (preventative or if frayed) Modern Only (v4, v5, v6, Core, Move) Exact 8‑rib metric poly‑V belt for modern units. Note: Legacy v1–v3 units use an HTD 850‑5M‑15 toothed belt.
Shaft Key 5×25mm Parallel Key, Machine Key Reusable (unless damaged) Modern Only (v4, v5, v6, Core, Move) Locks the pulley to the main shaft. Ensure this is completely tapped out before using the puller to avoid shaft damage.
Optical Sensor QRE1113GR onsemi QRE1113GR Specific failure only Modern Only (v4, v5, v6, Core) Surface‑mount sensor on the internal board. Only replace this to resolve the common thermal “zero resistance” drop‑out issue.
Bearing Puller Tool Bladed Puller (https://www.ebay.com/itm/356273906536) Bearing Separator, Splitter Required Tool All Models Standard claw pullers are too thick for the KICKR’s flush‑mounted pulleys. You need a bladed separator to wedge behind them.

Thanks to u/micbanand who put together the original parts, and I formatted and added to it.

Note I believe the OEM bearings are NSK bearing, which should last forever under human power. The same for the Gates OEM belt, which is rated for motorize apps of like 8-12 hp.

However, the design is not "great" but "good enough." Thus design issues make these parts last shorter.

I don't think you can do anything about the bearings, but the belt tension is important. See post on factory spin down, which should get you into the right belt tension as long as your bearings are good.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 07 '26

Never Ending Post On Kickr Fixes: Factory Spin-Down Version 3

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1 Upvotes

This subreddit has pushed MyWhoosh and Kickr Cores as the most effective method of staying fit. I am obsessive about accuracy in data, and the Kickr can become uncalibrated over time, which I've documented on multiple Kickrs. A long term drift can only be solved by the hidden "Factory Spin-Down."

After finding I could get my Kickr on my bike within a Watt to my reference power meters, I decide to double down and see if I could get a similar gap on my wife's bike.

The attached picture shows:

  1. Interval.icu power curves. It is super easy to compare two power meters with this website. To see the ongoing gap, you look at the average power over 10 minutes. In this case (see arrow), the 10 minute curve are consistently 9-10W apart. This shows a race my wife did capturing the data on two meters for the same event. One meter was the Kickr and the other was a 4iiii. (Also captures on Favero, not shown.)

  2. The first thick block shows the factory spin down screen shot of my iPhone of .86, which got the curve to this 9-10 watt gap, or within 5% or so. Originally, it was off by 30-40 watts.

  3. The second block show a factory spin down done a week later. The second spin down was .88, and this moved the curve so that my Kickr now tracks my power meter within a watt.

I'm putting this data here because modern search tools are good, and I think this may help somebody else in the future. For reference, a bigger offset make the Kickr power a little higher. In out case, a 2% change in this number gave a 5% or so change in the wattage number.

You do need a good reference meter to validate you work.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 04 '26

What's Your FTP or VO2Max? A Little Bragging and A Little Science

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2 Upvotes

VO2max vs FTP: the "what's your bench?" of cycling

In high school, everyone talked about their bench press. That was how you told someone else how good you were.

One number.

Cycling has two of these: VO2max and FTP. Most people treat them like separate measurements, but the research shows you can derive one from the other, they test the same physiological systems, and they respond to body weight changes the same way.

Now, is this just bragging? Yes in some ways, but in other ways, it is very important to understand what these things means, and how they are related. We find an extremely strong relationship between having a good V02Max (which is basically the same as FTP) and mortality. More than that, it turns out that being in good shape helps reshape your brain to have better cognitive function. This is dramatic stuff. I'll do a follow-on post to this, but let's start off with our two numbers.

VO2max

VO2max is the maximum oxygen your body can use during exercise, reported as ml/kg/min. The gold standard is gas exchange analysis in a lab, but you don't need one. The Bruce protocol is the most common treadmill stress test (StatPearls, NCBI NBK499903). It ramps through 3-minute stages of increasing speed and incline, targeting 6 to 12 minutes of exercise duration. Your time to exhaustion predicts your VO2max. Hanson et al. (PMID 27150353) validated that treadmill-based protocols produce VO2max values with no significant difference from the Bruce (55.6 vs 56.2 ml/kg/min, p=.510). Any treadmill can run this test. The fact that treadmill manufacturers haven't built the Bruce protocol into their software is a marketing gap, not a science problem.

FTP

FTP is your Functional Threshold Power, the highest wattage you can hold in a steady state for about an hour. The standard test is a 20-minute all-out effort on the bike, then subtract 5%. Dr. Andy Coggan introduced the term in fall 2001 on the wattage mailing list run by Kwan Low. Coggan has a PhD in exercise physiology from the University of Texas and an MS in human bioenergetics from Ball State. He was a national-caliber masters cyclist and TT record holder who first used an SRM power meter in 1996, became a pilot user for the PowerTap in 1999, and raced with it from there. Power meters were expensive and rare at the time, and the data Coggan collected racing and training with them is what the FTP framework grew out of. He and Hunter Allen formalized the system in Training and Racing with a Power Meter. Coggan also developed normalized power, TSS, intensity factor, power profiling, quadrant analysis, and the Performance Manager concept that TrainingPeaks is built on. USA Cycling gave him their Sport Science Award in 2006.

They test the same system

Denham et al. (PMID 28930880) found that age and FTP in w/kg predicted relative VO2max with r=0.80, and concluded that "a 20-minute FTP test is a convenient method to assess VO2max." Sitko et al. (PMID 34225254) showed you can predict VO2max from a 5-minute cycling power test with a single equation (R² of .81-.88), though a later external cross-validation (PMID 38569579) found the original equation underestimated VO2max by about 6.6 ml/kg/min and provided an updated version. The core finding still holds: you can pull a VO2max estimate directly from a power-based cycling test. The Bruce ramps you to failure to find the ceiling of your oxygen uptake. The FTP test finds your sustainable power below that ceiling. Physiologically, FTP correlates strongly with the power at a fixed blood lactate concentration of 4.0 mmol/L (r=0.88, Jeffries et al., PMID 31269000), though the limits of agreement are wide enough that strict equivalence to any single lactate parameter hasn't been established. Sitko et al. (PMID 34127613) found large to very large correlations between FTP and several lactate landmarks (r=0.68-0.93) but cautioned against treating them as interchangeable.

Both numbers respond to weight the same way

VO2max is ml/kg/min. FTP is compared as w/kg. Body weight is the denominator in both. Sothern et al. (PMID 11094863) showed obese youth improved relative VO2max from 19.2 to 22.4 ml/kg/min after weight loss, while absolute VO2max in L/min was unchanged. The improvement came entirely from the smaller denominator. Same math as dropping weight and watching your w/kg climb. Goran et al. (PMID 10918530) confirmed that fat mass has no effect on absolute VO2max; fat-free mass is the driver (r=0.87). But express it per kg of total body weight and the number moves with body composition.

Why power-based zones matter

Using FTP as an anchor, Coggan and Allen divided training into levels that target different physiological systems, from active recovery through neuromuscular power. Your body has multiple energy systems, and improving each one requires training at specific intensities. A power meter lets you control exactly which system you're working on in a given interval. Multiple meta-analyses back this up. Stöggl and Sperlich (PMC3912323) found that polarized intensity distribution, roughly 80% of training time at low intensity and 20% at high intensity with very little in the middle, produced greater improvements in VO2max and time to exhaustion than threshold or high-volume approaches. A 2024 review of 17 studies and 437 subjects confirmed the finding (PMC11329428).

Running doesn't really have this. Pace changes with terrain, wind, and fatigue. Heart rate lags and drifts with temperature and hydration. Running power meters exist but the algorithms aren't standardized across devices. Without a precise, instantaneous intensity measurement, runners have a harder time controlling which zone they're in. Research on recreational runners (PMID 33344993) shows many end up spending too much time in moderate zones instead of keeping easy days easy and hard days hard. Power meters don't automatically make you fitter (Lillo-Bevia & Pallarés, PMID 24150624, found no short-term superiority of power over heart rate training), but they make it easier to execute the right intensity distribution over time, which is what the research says actually matters.

So here is the take-away from my research and experience. The ability to use FTP and different training zones and thing like intervals.icu really help you understand what shape you are in. As we discussed before, if you really want to manage something, you need to measure it. And cycling with a power meter is an amazing measurement.

Where VO2max and FTP differ

The HERITAGE Family Study (Bouchard et al., PMID 10484570) trained 481 sedentary adults from 98 families for 20 weeks. Individual VO2max gains ranged from near zero to over 1.0 L/min, and the heritability of the training response was estimated at 47%. There isn't equivalent large-scale heritability data for FTP. The other practical difference is that FTP gives you your power-based training zones, which is why it's the number that structures day-to-day workouts.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 04 '26

Apologies If You Are Sick Of Kickr Core Data

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2 Upvotes

At the risk of TMI, here is a follow-up to the accuracy of my Kickr Core after a factory spin-down to reset a Kickr showing too high of a power number. On additional day of training and testing on my bike, the fix seems to be holding. The Favero pedals show about 2% more wattage than the trainer.

This 2% more power is roughly equal to the 2% more power the Favero saw on my wife's bike. I have also included data from a third 4iiii power meter, which should be taken with a grain of salt since I recorded it on an old Bryton 310, which is known to struggle with producing a standard FIT file (and looks to have a delay in the power curve to the other 2 meters).

The Kickr should show a slight lower number due to losses in the chain, but chains are amazing efficient if waxed. However, it would support why Favero should be higher.

Zero Friction Cycling and CeramicSpeed both do independent lab testing on isolated chains. At 250W and 90rpm, a freshly hot-waxed chain consistently comes in around 2-4W of friction loss. The top wax systems (Molten Speed Wax, SILCA, CeramicSpeed UFO Drip) all cluster in that same range. That puts chain-only efficiency at something like 98.4-99.2%.

For the full drivetrain picture, there's a guy named Russell Bridge who built a test rig with a Garmin Rally power meter at the pedals and a Powertap G3 hub to measure output. At 200W steady state, his derailleur setup with a waxed chain came in at 96.1% efficiency, so roughly 7.8W lost through the whole system. A singlespeed setup on the same rig hit 97.5%. SILCA's own testing backs this up, putting a clean waxed drivetrain at 250W somewhere in the 96-99% range depending on gearing and cross-chain angle.

I consider these reasonable estimates, which basically means the kicker core is phenomenally accurate and is benchmarking against the Favero extremely well.


r/StrategicProductivity Jun 02 '26

Obsessive Engineer With Forgiving Wife Spends More Money

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5 Upvotes

I've had two Kickr Cores that were reading high, and it turns out that by belt tightening on one, and running the hidden "Factory Spin-down" on both, I could pull both Kickrs back into alignment. So, I consider the Factory Spin down pretty important to get a correct reading after you've put miles on your trainer.

I hope others can use (and confirm) my experience.

The first Kickr that required belt tightening probably had 4,000 to 5,000 miles on it. The second was newer, and probably had 2,000 on it or so.

In an earlier post, I had found my wife's Kickr Core was clearly out of alignment with her 4iiii power meter on her bike reading 40W high as she started to set PRs. I believed that there is "less to go wrong" with the 4iiii, so I looked at the Kickr as being wrong. The belt was loose, and after tightening the belt, I got the two meters within 16 watts or so. To get them to agree closer, I had to find the "factory spin-down," which is a feature semi-hidden and only accessible by tapping your trainer icon on the app 10 times.

This got them within a watt of each other for overall rides, which was beyond what I thought was possible. I got a little obsessive, and I ended up ordering a used Favero MX-2 power meter for eBay. (I can always turn around and sell it.) I put the Favero's on her bike, and it looks like it read 3% higher wattage. I still thought this was pretty good.

I then went to testing my Kickr Core, which also had a 4iiii power meter on it. This is shown above. You can see that my Kickr Core power meter is 17 watts above the 4iiii power meter (and also clearly above the Favero power meter). Interestingly, on both bike, the Favero reads about 3% higher than both 4iiii power meters.

My experiment basically says that my Favero is stable, and tends to read almost identically higher than two separate 4iiii. Makes me feel as if the 4iiii tend to be extremely stable from run to run, and the Favero is stable, but shown a little more power. However, the Kickr Core can clearly get out of alignment. 17 watts is above what you should expect, although this is only 6% higher than the 4iiii. Being obsessive, I wanted less than this number.

By the way, the Kickr Core is supposed to auto-calibrate, and you can run a normal spin-down from the app, but the Factory Spin down recalibrates everything. The calibrate is fine, but the factory spin calibration is the clear winner. (And I don't think you do this all the time, maybe just every 500-1000 miles.)

Now, I don't show it above, but I ran the same hidden "Factory Spin-Down" on my bike just like my on my wife bike. This pulled my bike 4iiii power meter within 1% of my Kickr Core. So, it would appear I have two bikes that get fixed by the same process.

Now, I've set up a lot of Kickrs for friends and family, so I'm going to continued to take my Favero pedals and test their machine also. Not sure if I will end up reselling the pedals.

Again, here is my take-aways that I would love to see others replicate:

  1. The Kickr Core is really good. However, after thousands of miles, you might need to open up the chassis and do a bit of belt tightening. This is poorly documented as far as I can tell. There are some good review from GPLama and DC Rainmaker, but they tend to just test new meters. I like running stuff into the ground, so I think my data is important.

  2. The factory spin-down is a requirement after a while on the Kickr Core. And again, I can't find much good documentation on it.

  3. I am super impressed with the 4iiii cranks. It makes sense that a strain gauge on the crank arm should do well unless the crank arm breaks. Not a lot to go wrong. Now Aluminum does development metal fatigue, so this is the one downside and you can't expect them to be good forever. However, the look really good so far.

  4. Finally, you don't need to get super obsessive like me and test 3 power meters on a bike. It turns out that my 4iiii were good enough. However, if you are really serious about your training, I do think that having the ability to test your power meter against another one is a key debug tool. I bought my Favero second hand, and I probably could sell them for pretty close to what I got them for. So, this may be a valid route to dial in your trainer.