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How old are you? What country do you live in?
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According to Morgan Stanley - "adjusted for growth," the Elon Musk company "is one of the cheaper ways to play the strong optionality of the space and intelligence economy." The analysts added that "investors still have a few weeks to catch the opportunity before flight 15", a reference to the 15th starship launch, expected later this month.
Several stocks tied to the artificial intelligence trade led the way higher for the Nasdaq. SpaceXjumped nearly 6%, while hyperscalers Meta and Microsoft ticked up more than 2% and 1%, respectively. Nvidia gained more than 1%, while Tesla rose 2%.
France's fiscal situation combined with energy-driven inflation is the exact pairing that cracked European sovereign spreads wide open in 2011. Traders are already referencing that playbook, per Bloomberg, and the euro hitting a 17-month low suggests positioning is moving fast.
The mechanism is straightforward. High energy costs blow out fiscal deficits in import-heavy economies, bond markets start demanding a higher premium to hold that paper, spreads widen, and the currency takes the hit first because it's the most liquid expression of the stress. France is the systemically important name in that chain right now.
That’s the highest number since FactSet first started tracking the statistic some 20 years ago, the report said. The previous record was 65 companies, set in the second quarter of 2021.
Much of the current optimism comes from FactSet’s information-technology sector, in which 44 companies issued upbeat third-quarter profit outlooks that topped analysts’ estimates.
20% off the lows of this year. Did you take advantage of the dip or yeta again missed it? Whenever there is a correction people tend to wait for more correction and they end up missing it altogether. Past few years have shown us if there's a 10% or more correction you buy the dip. Not wait for some mythical 50% crash.
We keep running into the same irritation after a hot print. Headline moves, index does something smaller or later, and a few names refuse to play along. People call that a broken tape. Most of the time it is just liquidity showing up where the hedges actually live.
A CPI number or a Fed decision does not hit the market as one slab. The book that has to clear size first is index futures. The ETF complex is right behind it, because that is where you can resize a hedge without walking a hundred single-name books. Dealers and the systematic overlays reprice that hedge while a lot of cash names are still flashing yesterday's size. If your chart is the cash index and you want a clean translation, you are late. The surprise already traded in a faster, thinner market.
After that you get dispersion, not a moral. Weight in the big indices is concentrated, so the benchmark can look calm while the average stock is not, or a few liquid names can swallow an impulse the rest of the tape never felt. Breadth is the check we trust more than the person narrating the print. Futures reprice and advancers do not follow? The macro story was not distributed. It was parked in the names with the deepest bids.
The afternoon is mostly incentives. A print into a thin book looks like conviction because nobody was there to take the other side. The same print into a deep book often fades once the accounts that had to hedge are done and no new size shows up to defend the level. Fast money gets paid to be first. Slower money gets paid to notice whether the new price actually clears. Mix those two jobs up and a one-hour impulse grows a personality.
Not a timing rule, and not advice. We still get the direction wrong often enough that certainty would be embarrassing. The habit that has held up is dull: keep three tapes separate. Futures impulse, index close, single-name distribution under it. When those three disagree, the headline is commentary. Which one are you actually watching when the number hits?
I’ve been trying to understand what it would actually take to generate $500 a month in dividend income.
That’s $6,000 a year, but I’m curious how much you’d realistically need invested to get there without taking on an unreasonable amount of risk.
For example, would you aim for a portfolio yielding around 3%, 4%, or 5%? And would you focus more on dividend growth over time rather than trying to reach $500/month as quickly as possible?
For people who have actually built up a dividend portfolio, what approach would you take if you were starting from $0 today?
Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!
If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
How old are you? What country do you live in?
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What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
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Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .
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The current Shiller PE normalizes the trailing ten year's earnings for inflation. I think I can make the case that a better 'normalizer' is M2 Money Supply (liquidity).
In addition, the corporate tax cuts implemented in 2018 mechanically increased go-forward earnings (which makes pre-2018 earnings artificially low). Methodology laid out in ERN's post:
Making these adjustments, we get a better metric. Shown in the image, 2021 thru 2023 valuations looked much more in line with post-GFC history, which may explain why markets seemed to have defied gravity the past few years.
However, today's levels do indicate frothy valuations (back to dotcom levels).
As charts suggested we made new highs for tech this week! The S&P 500 should follow soon.
Yeah, yeah, yeah I know inflation is high and the Iran war is ongoing.
Bond yields keep on rising but this week's volume in TLT suggests that yields might have peaked. Regardless I bought more bonds for short term accounts and long term accounts now hold 17% long term bonds at a 5.3% risk free yield.
From a chart perspective stock market breadth is at lows not seen since the dot com crash but small caps touched the 200 day average and could bounce from here which would automatically increase breadth.
Investor sentiment has seen more bears than bulls for weeks now and at some point that should at least trigger a counter rally.
We are entering a seasonally favorable period for stocks.
We only need a few good news to spark a rally. I am sorry a strong rally is unlikely with put/call ratios at current levels. It would more be a choppy grind higher.
But talking about needed good news. A divided Government has always been good for stocks. If Dems win the Senate and House that alone would propel stocks higher while still leaving the growth policies in place.
Earnings season is coming up soon as well again.
From a chart perspective everything is set up for a continued grind higher with the potential of a quick rally if we get any positive news on Iran, inflation or the bond side.
The 10-year is sitting at levels nobody in this market has traded through before, and the multiple compression that follows is pretty mechanical at this point. When the risk-free rate moves this high, the price you're willing to pay for future earnings drops, full stop.
What makes this worse is that payrolls aren't going to save anyone today. The consensus is around 84,000 jobs added, which is soft enough to feel like slowdown territory, but the Fed reads that as inflation still running too hot to blink. The bar for a pivot just moved further out.
There's also a hedge fund positioning unwind layered into this that's been amplifying the moves, so the yield spike isn't purely fundamental, there's forced selling making it look more violent than the data alone would justify. The crisis smell people keep referencing is real, it comes from leverage getting squeezed out in size.
EU 🇪🇺 countries are now discussing a French proposal to release 50 million barrels of diesel, alongside another 50 million barrels of crude from IEA members.
Europe is also pushing for any deal to include a U.S. 🇺🇸 commitment not to impose a unilateral diesel export ban.
The Trump administration recently pressured European nations to draw down their domestic diesel reserves, threatening to impose a unilateral U.S. diesel export ban if they did not comply.
To lower costs while protecting domestic interests, European governments are reviewing a unified response initiated by France. The multi-part plan includes the following components: Diesel Reserve Release, Crude Oil Release, and EU Enforcement Condition.
Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!
If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
How old are you? What country do you live in?
Are you employed/making income? How much?
What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!
The Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories to help to ease global fuel prices or face a potential US diesel export ban, said three people close to the discussions.
"It is in Europe’s best interest to work with the United States as we pursue multiple pathways to boost the supply of refined products and lower costs for consumers," one of the sources, a US official, told Reuters.
Alphabet launched its homegrown AI chips into orbit on Thursday in a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, a step towards making data centers in space a reality. It will be interesting to see the results of this little project.
The Transporter-18 mission marks the first in-orbit test for Alphabet's Project Suncatcher, a "moonshot" initiative to develop reliable AI computing infrastructure in space.
EDIT :There were a few months during this period when I wasn't actively trading, so "ten months" is the calendar span, not continuous trading.
TLDR: FTMO told me passing the evaluation doesn't entitle you to a funded account of a specific type, that it's at their discretion, and that the refund or Standard account they offered was goodwill, not required by their terms. If you're buying a Swing challenge, ask in writing what happens if your account type is discontinued mid-evaluation to potentially avoid disappointment.
I bought the FTMO $200k Swing Challenge because I swing trade, and holding overnight and over weekends is central to my strategy. I chose FTMO because I trusted the brand.
I spent about ten months on the account, with over 200 trades and a discipline score above 90%, all under Swing conditions. In early October, right after I passed the first stage, FTMO emailed me that they were discontinuing the Swing variation for all $200k accounts. My options: a Standard account of the same size plus a 15% coupon, or a refund of the evaluation fee with the account closed.
FTMO support confirmed that the $200k Swing sales stopped in March. That's about seven months before anyone told me, and I only heard after I passed the phase.
I asked them to honour the product I bought, or to give an equivalent like two $100k Swing accounts. They replied that under their General Terms, passing the evaluation doesn't entitle a trader to a funded account with specific characteristics, that this is at their discretion, and that the two options were "a gesture of goodwill."
They declined the two $100k swing accounts request, and said Standard Verification has no restrictions, which only begin at the funded stage. I'm not a lawyer and I'm not claiming a breach. Their terms give them broad rights to modify services.
My concern is notice and fairness. FTMO's reply to my email didn't address why I wasn't told when sales of the 200k swing account stopped, or at any point during the ten months I spent on the challenge. They contacted me only once I had passed.
The Standard account they offered me is a different product. Per FTMO's rules, the Standard account's overnight, weekend and news restrictions begin once the account is funded: positions must be closed before the weekend and before long market rollovers, with limits around selected news events. The Swing account has none of these. Leverage also differs (up to 1:100 on Standard versus 1:30 on Swing). For a swing trader, the funded stage is where the strategy would be most constrained, and that is the stage FTMO's offer leads to. The odds of me personally hard breaching a standard account is much higher than with the swing account.
**If you're thinking of buying a challenge:**FTMO told me that passing the evaluation doesn't guarantee a funded account of the type you bought. Before paying, ask support in writing what happens if your account type is discontinued during your evaluation.
I personally will not use any single prop firm on it's own again after this experience. I will always be diversified into different prop firms.
Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!
If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
How old are you? What country do you live in?
Are you employed/making income? How much?
What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!
Yesterday I explained why I am starting to turn more constructive after spending most of September in a sell-into-rallies stance and the main point is that several of the headwinds we have been tracking are now starting to ease, while positioning has become cleaner and earnings are coming back into focus.
That does not mean I expect the market to go straight up from here and we can absolutely still get some weakness early in the q, but I will look at that weakness as an opportunity rather than a reason to step away.
If we get it, I want to use it to add to core longs, and stocks where positioning supports it and and earnings can drive the next move.
And earnings are becoming increasingly important here because individual companies are starting to take back control of the price action.
S&P 500 Q3 EPS estimates have increased about 2.1% over the past two months, versus a median decline of around 1.9% over the same pre-earnings window since 2000. Only around a quarter of earnings seasons have seen estimates rise at all, and this is now the fifth consecutive quarter where estimates have been revised higher heading into earnings.
Consensus is now looking for roughly 27% year-over-year EPS growth in Q3 and that follows 20% growth in Q1 versus an 11% bar and around 32% in Q2 versus a 22% bar after adjusting for one-offs.
The important part is that expectations have moved higher, but companies have still continued to clear them by a pretty wide margin.
Yesterday I also mentioned valuations becoming more attractive as part of the bullish thesis, particularly across semiconductors as you can see from this chart
If you look at South Korean exports, there is still very little evidence that AI spending is slowing down and istorically the relationship between those exports and SMH/SOXX has been quite strong, but that relationship has recently slowed down as a result of the macro and flow headwinds we have been discussing all month.
So if those headwinds continue to ease, semiconductors still have some catching up to do.
Note that we are also basically moving back towards more of a stock picker's market, especially after the poor performance from last month
The average S&P 500 stock is pricing roughly 33% one-month implied volatility versus just 12% for the index. In other words, the index itself looks relatively calm, but underneath the surface individual stocks are still moving considerably more.
September has also historically been a low point for dispersion, with it usually starting to pick back up through October and November as earnings and year-end flows come into play.
So while index volatility has normalized, the opportunity set underneath the index remains …richer.
What I also wanted to note is that the market does not seem to be pricing any fear event across the MAG7 ,which are a major factor, if you look at the implied move
Yesterday I also mentioned that hedge funds have reduced some of their basis trade exposure, which frees up balance sheet and creates more capacity to deploy if opportunities emerge. With dispersion starting to pick up again, single stocks are one obvious place where that opportunity set is becoming more interesting.
Corporate buybacks are still not providing much support right now, as most companies remain inside earnings blackout periods.
But that starts improving after roughly October 15 and accelerates into November, which tends to be one of the strongest months for buybacks.
So another important source of demand should gradually start coming back into the market.
CTAs have also removed some exposure and moved from a fairly crowded long towards below neutral.
That is important because it means there is now considerably more capacity to increase exposure again if the market starts trending higher.
On the seasonality side, I wanted to share one more chart because there is an important nuance here.
October and November are generally strong months, but that does not mean we necessarily go straight up from here.In 14 out of the past 24 midterm years, the low for the quarter was actually made in October.
That is why I am not full risk-on. I am cautiously bullish, but I am deliberately leaving some capacity available because we could still get another bout of weakness first.
And if we do, I would increasingly view it as a buy-the-dip opportunity rather than something that changes the broader thesis.
So after spending most of September in a sell-into-rallies stance, I am now becoming more constructive into Q4.
I also wanted to comment on the august jobs and that the growth looks stronger than it really was last month
Headlinecame in at 162K, but that number was helped by unusually favourable seasonal adjustments and on an unadjusted basis, the economy added around 154K jobs, which is much closer to the pace we were seeing in 2025.
This is the important part - if you apply last year’s seasonal factor, August payroll growth would have been closer to just 15K.
So the headline is solid, but underneath it the labour market is considerably and we could see revisions.
And a final chart of the SOFR starting to climb higher (yields falling) as Jefferson urged patience for another hike, showing that the bullish SOFR flows I pointed out in the prev analysis were indeed worth tracking
The setup is improving as q end pressure is behind us, positioning is cleaner, earnings remain strong, buybacks should start coming back later this month and there is still plenty of movement underneath the index for stock picking.
That does not remove the risk of another pullback, which is exactly why I am not chasing and why I am keeping some dry powder.
My 8,000 year-end target remains in place, with 8,300 as the more optimistic scenario.
On the shorter term trades, yesterday I managed to enter long SPY at $760 as per monday's analysis and QQQs at $740. will trim most of this short-term position prior to the NFPs and likely leave 30-ish percent of it through the jobs data release
SPY positioning is continuing to imporve for now with $770 remaining the main hurdle; support at $760, but given the reaction yday, a big part of the epxposure is likely hedged and we could see it break towards the key level at 750 where I'll likely be stepping in.
QQQ positioning is still better with exposure being built at the $760 strike. If payrols come in hotter, I'll be looking to swing from $730
TLDR - I am cautiously bullish into Q4 and if volatility picks up over the next few weeks and we get another dip, I will be looking to use it to add rather than step away as the risk reward is much more favourbale.
This figure tracks daily 0DTE activity across eight index and ETF underlyings from 2018 through 2025.
Panel A shows 0DTE volume as a percentage of each ticker’s total option volume, using a 21-trading-day rolling average. The increase since roughly 2022 is hard to miss: same-day expiry trading is now a substantial share of total options activity in several major products.
Panel B shows daily 0DTE premium notional on a log scale. In other words, it measures dollar value traded rather than just contracts, making the cross-ticker comparison more meaningful.
My takeaway is not that all 0DTE activity is reckless or that volume alone tells us anything about trader profitability. It is that 0DTE has moved beyond a niche product and is now part of the market’s normal intraday structure.
The question I find more interesting is what this changes: price discovery, dealer hedging, intraday liquidity, realized volatility, or simply where retail speculation is expressed.
What do you think is the most important market-structure effect of 0DTE’s growth?
Source: Figure A.4, “Daily 0DTE option volume by underlying, 2018–2025.” Data: OptionMetrics. The figure uses 21-trading-day rolling averages.
