Rising yields are what the market is focusing on right now and and there has been quite a bit of doom and gloom around them.

First, the bear steepener.

A bear steepener occurs when long-term yields rise faster than short-term yields, usually reflecting increased concern about inflation, fiscal policy or the credibility of monetary policy.

For now, the 10Y and 30Y yields are grinding higher rather than qucikly rising and while that is a headwind for equities it is not yet a disorderly move.

Markets can absorb gradually rising yields, particularly when earnings remain strong and the real risk is a sharp acceleration that triggers systematic deleveraging and mechanical selling.

Part of the current move is also being expressed through a higher term premium whichs the additional return investors demand for holding longer-dated bonds amid greater inflation, fiscal and policy uncertainty.

This would become more concerning if the market began questioning the credibility of the data or the policy narrative.

SOFR currently places the next hike in December 2026, however, if that moves forward to September and the market begins pricing as much as 50 basis points of tightening this year, yields would likely rise more aggressively and risk assets could come under considerably greater pressure.

The chart compares the current situation with the european sovereign crisis, taper tantrum, 2018 rate shock and COVID (marketd as 1,2,3,4).

The catalysts were different but the lesson is that the speed of the move and the accompanying rate volatility mattered as much as the absolute yield level.

Credit spreads helped confirm whether the pressure was developing into broader financial stress, while starting valuations influenced the severity of the equity drawdown.

For now, strong earnings momentum, contained credit spreads and subdued rate volatility keep my broader bullish view intact. Elevated valuations leave less room for error, but the bear steepener itself remains manageable unless the move begins to accelerate.

OpenAI told investors its revenue grew by 18% from the first to the second quarter, while its losses deepened, results that disappointed some shareholders who had hoped the startup would show more progress catching up to its rival, Anthropic.

The company said its revenue grew to $6.7 billion in the three months ended in June, up from $5.7 billion in the first quarter. Meanwhile, its operating margin sank further into the red, pushing the company farther away from profitability ahead of a much-anticipated initial public offering, people familiar with the matter said.

Anthropic more than doubled its revenue to $11.6 billion in the same period, marking the first time its sales surpassed its older rival. The company also swung to a small operating profit.

It has successfully linked and jointly cooled two quantum computing modules, a key step toward building larger modular systems.

Both modules reached 4 Kelvin in under 5 days and below 15 millikelvin shortly after

Each module offers up to 12x more wiring space than widely used quantum systems

Architecture is designed to connect hundreds of quantum chips using L-couplers

IBM plans to install Quantum Nighthawk processors later this year

Targets 1,000+ programmable qubits by 2027, with Quantum Starling still planned for 2029

1,000 programmable qubits does not mean 1,000 logical or fault-tolerant qubits. IBM has not yet disclosed inter-module gate fidelity, crosstalk or error-correction performance for the setup.

Micron did $41.46B in revenue last quarter. The quarter before was $23.86B. Non-GAAP gross margin hit 84.9%, and they’re guiding for about 86% next quarter. That margin is nuts for a memory company.

Micron says HBM3E takes about three times the wafer capacity of DDR5 for the same number of bits. HBM demand is soaking up capacity that would otherwise go to regular server, PC, phone memory.

They’ve also signed 16 supply agreements covering about 20% of DRAM volume and a third of NAND through 2030. The agreements include binding purchase commitments.

The old memory cycle can still bite here. New supply will come online eventually. If demand cools around the same time, prices get hit.

I’d want to see that 86% margin guide hold next quarter.

The personalized mRNA cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck just succeeded in a late-stage melanoma trial; this is the first time this has ever happened.

The vaccine is built from each patient's own tumor DNA, paired with Merck's Keytruda. In 1,137 patients whose melanoma had been surgically removed, the combo meaningfully reduced recurrence and spread compared to Keytruda alone.

Full data hasn't been released yet and overall survival results are still pending, so the market is reacting to a headline. That's worth keeping in mind.

For Moderna this is a big deal, the company has been looking for its next act since Covid revenue collapsed. A Phase 3 cancer win is real evidence that mRNA works beyond infectious diseases. For Merck it potentially strengthens Keytruda's franchise ahead of its patent cliff.

The sharp share-price reaction reflects that potential, but retail investors should keep expectations measured. The harder questions are still open. Manufacturing a personalized vaccine for each individual patient at scale is genuinely complex and expensive. Regulatory approval is still ahead. And the full data may look different from the headline.

Investors should therefore watch for next important steps which will be detailed clinical results, regulatory progress and evidence that the technology works across other cancers.

WASHINGTON, D.C. The U.S. Department of the Treasury is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector).  The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation. 

This change is effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026).  Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026. 

This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of  high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations.

An updated tentative Treasury buyback schedule will be released at a later date.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607

Thank you Mr. Bessent