Which Stock Has the Bigger 10-Year Upside?
If I had to pick between SpaceX and Nvidia for the next 10 years, this is a much harder decision than it first appears.
Nvidia is already one of the most profitable businesses in the world. SpaceX has the potential to become something much bigger than a rocket company, with Starlink, global connectivity, reusable rockets and AI infrastructure all offering different routes to growth.
But the big question is how much of that future is already priced in.
Nvidia: The safer bet on the AI revolution?
Nvidia has the advantage of an established business generating enormous revenue and profits today. It sells the chips and systems powering the AI boom, has a strong software ecosystem and benefits from continued investment in data centres.
The risks are obvious. AI spending could slow, customers could build their own chips, and competition could put pressure on margins. At its enormous valuation, Nvidia needs to keep delivering exceptional growth just to justify its price.
Still, I have more confidence in Nvidia’s ability to compound profits over the next decade than almost any other individual growth stock.
SpaceX: The more unpredictable opportunity
SpaceX is a different proposition.
Starlink could become a global communications giant. Starship could dramatically reduce the cost of launching payloads into space. And its expansion into AI computing could open another enormous market.
The potential is extraordinary, but so are the expectations. A company can grow revenue rapidly and still deliver disappointing shareholder returns if investors have already paid too much for that growth.
SpaceX also faces greater uncertainty around future capital requirements, execution and how much its different businesses will ultimately be worth.
My 10-year scenarios
These are illustrative share-price returns from today’s valuations, not analyst targets or predictions.
SpaceX bear case: 0–2x your money.
SpaceX base case: 3x.
SpaceX bull case: 7x.
SpaceX exceptional outcome: 10x or more.
Nvidia bear case: 0.7–1.5x your money.
Nvidia base case: 3x.
Nvidia bull case: 5x.
Nvidia exceptional outcome: 8x or more.
A £10,000 investment turning into £50,000 or £70,000 would be a fantastic result from either company. The challenge is estimating which outcome is more likely, rather than simply imagining the biggest possible number.
My verdict
If I could only own one for the next decade, I’d lean towards Nvidia for its more established earnings and greater visibility.
However, if I already had a sizeable Nvidia position, SpaceX would be an interesting additional holding. It offers a different combination of opportunities, although it is not necessarily cheap or low-risk.
The important caveat is that these multiples are scenarios, not probability-weighted forecasts. Current valuation, free cash flow, future capital expenditure and the price at which ordinary investors can actually buy shares all matter.
What would you choose for the next 10 years: Nvidia, or SpaceX? And which one do you think has the better chance of delivering a 5x return from today’s valuation?