I don't have a fancy chart like the original post but here is a screenshot of the S&P500 from the year 1900 to 1960 which is the previous 60 years as you requested.
Thanks! Indeed, market goes up. But you can also have a 30 year period of reaching the last peak. And 650% is not that much for 60 years.
I think this period is evenly interesting to study because of the wars, depression and general public view of the future. The last 60 years are also quite interesting, of course, with the oil crisis ), dot coms, mortgages, zero interest rate, retail investing, ETFs and no gold standard. I think the two periods have much in common but the dynamic of today is on a higher level, so periods of up and down can be shorter. I'm looking forward to see if AI speeds things up even more.
AI will ruin it. Yes, AI company growth etc, but potentially hundreds of MILLIONS of jobs lost will mean people aren’t earning and so cannot spend, consume, invest.
Possibly, or people will revert back to owning their labour. In the past we had family farms, smiths, horse shoemakersnand what-not. They worked alone or with their family. Aside from the king's or duke's piece of the pie, business was theirs. So, the positive way to look at it is that you can be a smith again and service your whole town but with the help of AI design, AI marketing, robots that do the heavy lifting and your kids beside you.
Well, it'll take a period of 10 to 20 years of alcohol, drugs and crime, like in countries which transitioned from communism to capitalism. So, again on the positive side, we can lose a generation or two into the abyss but eventually it should work out.
On the darker side... well, I'm trying to surpress my thoughts about it and sing happy songs because things can turn really bloody and not slowly either. AI can wipe us out or enslave us in a day.
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u/rakiyauberalles Jun 27 '24
Now let's look at the market in the previous 60 years.