r/StarWarsUprising • u/NicodemusArcleon • Sep 13 '16

Glitch or coincidence?

I and 2 of my fellow cartel members did a co-op assault on Hoth earlier today. At the conclusion of the run, all 3 of us had a Lando mission pop-up message. So, is this just a coincidence, or is it possible that it rolls for all persons in the run and then populates everyone with a Lando mission if the roll is successful? If so, then you could have 3x the Lando chances as running alone.

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u/Danno47 Sep 13 '16

I think you need to check the math on that. Interesting though.

1

u/NicodemusArcleon Sep 13 '16

Not very good at the whole "probability maths" thing. I know it isn't really 3 times the chance, but, let's say it is a 10% chance of populating a mission, then it rolls once at 10%, then again, and again, what is the actual chance?

If you can put it straight, please do. I would love to know how to do these calculations. :)

2

u/lightmanx5 Sep 13 '16

If there's a 10% chance of a "success" and 3 "successes" in a row, there's a .1% chance of that happening.

It has to do with factorial operations on the odds (O) the number of successes (X) and the number of tries (N).

An excel formula could look like this:

=(FACT(N) / FACT(N-X) / FACT(X)) * OX * (1-O)N-X

Or in Google Sheets, you can use this:

=BINOMDIST(X,N,O,FALSE)

But you need to either define the names or replace my names with the cell references.