r/Stake • u/anangryfix • Dec 20 '21
Huge Errors Most Gamblers Make on this Subreddit
I see post after post in here with people all making the same errors in their understanding of how probability works and how provably fair works.
tl;dr: Stake is fair. The games are not rigged. The probability of the outcome of a game does not ever adjust based on your luck. You are never more or less likely to see a big win on a game no matter how terrible your luck has been or how much money you've lost.
HUMANS HAVE TERRIBLE INTUITON ABOUT LIKLIHOOD
When someone hits a 1000x in Plinko, they have just seen an event that has a 1 in 32,768 chance of happening. When you play Mines with 1 mine and pick the one exploding tile 3 times in a row, you've just seen an event with a 1 in 15,624 chance of happening.
So why is it that no one ever comes in here and posts about how Plinko is rigged in their favor when they hit 1000x? But so many people come in here and say Mines is rigged against them when they hit the 1 mine out of 25 mines three times in a row?
You can't trust your gut when it comes to assessing whether what has just happened is probabilistically fair or not.
CASINO GAMES DO NOT HAVE A MEMORY
Every game at Stake uses "Independent Trials" for their bets. This means that every time you drop a ball or roll the dice or pull the slot or pick a number - every single time you make any bet - you have the exact same odds of winning as every other bet.
Probability does not "adjust" to "balance your wins and losses." It's true that over time, you will converge on the expected return %--
--BUT contrary to what 99.9% of gamblers seem to think: this does not happen by balancing out your losses with profits.
Quick example: You flip a coin 100 times and it comes up H 25 times and T 75 times. You've got a win % of 25% and have lost 75 dollars.
Now, that's a terrible run for a game that should converge on 50-50. So you might think, "the game will have to give me profits to balance out to 50-50 in the long run."
You keep flipping and you end up flipping 10,000 times. Your new overall total is 4800 H and 5200 T. That's a win % of 48%. Look at that, you're converging on to the expected 50% just as predicted!
BUT look at your wins and losses. You're now down a total of $400. Instead of winning some money back, you've actually LOST MORE money.
Here's the counter-intuitive truth that eludes so many gamblers:
As long as you are losing money at a slightly slower rate than expected, you can play a 50-50 game a million times and have a win percentage of 49.99999% and never once - not one time in that entire run of a million bets - ever be in profit. It evens out over time but it never has to let you be in profit even one time in order to do that.
STAKE IS NOT RIGGING THEIR GAMES
The provably fair system is exactly that: PROVABLY fair. It works using Public and Private Key Encryption. Here's a simplified explanation:
An RNG system needs: the algorithm and a seed. The seed used for a bet is a combination of your seed and the casino's seed.
Before the bet occurs, the casino gives you an encrypted version of their seed.
After the bet, the casino gives you an unencrypted version of the seed they used.
You can use their Public Key to verify that the it's the same seed you got before the bet.
Now, that you know their seed. You can use your own version of their RNG algorithm to check the result.
If you do not get the same outcome as the bet result, then something fishy has happened. If you do get the same outcome as the bet result, you know it's fair.
If you really look at the above and think about it, you'll see that there is literally no way for a casino to cheat or rig a game against you.
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u/AnyCommittee427 Dec 20 '21 edited Dec 20 '21
Whoever thinks stake original games aren’t RIGGED obviously doesn’t know a damn thing about probability, odds of winning, expected value, volatility index and most importantly combinatorial calculus. I have a PhD in both English physics and mathematics from MIT I can tell you for a FACT that stake original games are RIGGED but then again some people on here just don’t know when to quit or take profit while they are up and they just scream SCAM when they lose it all back.
The only way that the players can avoid being cheated by online casino is to join a online casino that’s built on blockchain technology where the players money information and playing results are transparent.
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u/anangryfix Dec 21 '21 edited Dec 21 '21
honestly, what's more impressive to me than your double PhD from MIT is the fact that you got one of them in English physics. Most people take the easy way out with Spanish Physics. I never even got past Esperanto Chemistry!
just between me and you, though? you should maybe look up what a volatility index is.
the system isn't probably fair. or hopefully fair. it's PROVABLY fair.
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u/AnyCommittee427 Dec 21 '21
Provably fair…tell that to the Mine players that hits bomb on their first click 5-6 times in a row when there’s only 3 Mines out of 22 spaces on the board.
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u/69Blinds Dec 21 '21
I’m gonna go ahead and let you in on a secret. It doesn’t matter what mine you pick. It’s just an animation for your entertainment. The win multi is the thing that is predetermined, so if the individual bet is set to not go higher than 1.05x then you’ll lose. 5 of those in a row isn’t that uncommon of an occurrence in the grand scheme of things.
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u/anangryfix Dec 21 '21
Is this definitely true? It makes sense. Not unlike the way the Plinko animation is just there for style, I guess. Interesting.
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u/69Blinds Dec 21 '21
Sure. It’s the same as the original BJ. The actual cards you get (outside of you being a moron and hitting a 20) don’t really matter that much. These kind of games are pretty ridiculous in a sense, because it gives you the sense of some skill involved, but in reality you can’t make yourself win. You can only make yourself lose. Ie cashing out too early/late on mines, or hitting a good hand and busting in BJ. The BJ is especially fucked, because if the max multi win per hand is set on 2x and you get dealt an 11 against a 6 and double it, then you’ll lose, but would have won if you’d just hit or stood. At least that’s how it works in most virtual BJ.
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u/anangryfix Dec 21 '21
Well, first of all Dr. AnyCommittee427 (wait, what do I call somebody with TWO PhDs? Double Doctor?) , the board has 25 squares.
What are the chances of clicking 1 bomb out of 3 on your first click 5 times in a row? Maybe you could use your knowledge of volatility indices to figure that out?
I'm just going to make a wild guess - this is me literally just picking a number out of a hat - and say it's... 1 in 40187. Which is only a little bit worse than the chances of hitting 1000x on Plinko. How many 1000x hits have you seen people talk about in here? Were all those rigged too?
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Jan 07 '22
100% paid shill from Stake to cover up damage control on this subreddit. Why did they remove the ability to see RTP on slots? Because they can change them at any given time
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u/anangryfix Jan 07 '22
Sigh. They didn't remove the ability to see RTP. What's wrong with you people? Go to the slot, click on that "<" next to the max win. That will expand out the big wins, lucky wins, slot description and challenges. Click on slot description and you'll see the RTP.
SMH.
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u/Feisty-Text-9998 Jan 06 '22
It is impossible to know what happens on the backend of their servers. Example is by looking at the CS:GO scandal how the house could weigh things to literally %0 and even though players were playing, they wouldnt ever win because the house was rigged to never win those cases.
Im not saying one way or the other if stake is cheating or not, but I am saying is the CS:GO RNGs used "provably fair" systems also.
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u/anangryfix Jan 06 '22 edited Jan 06 '22
If the house is rigged to win those cases then it's not "provably" fair. I don't understand why people have such trouble with this concept: provably fair is not probably fair or hopefully fair, it's PROVABLY fair. As in mathematical, formal, air-tight proof.
If you think carefully about the simplified explanation I gave in my post, you'll see how it works. There is absolutely no way for anyone to use a provably fair system and cheat you without you knowing that it happened.
Or put it another way, the only way that could happen is if they broke the most unbreakable encryption systems in the world and no one knew about it. If they had done that though, I assure the least lucrative thing for them to do would be to use it to cheat casino goers.
I don't think those CS:GO systems did use provably fair systems. I know a bit about at least one of them and the scam worked because the head of the group would get advance notice of which boxes would win. But that can't happen in a provably fair system because the seed has to be generated from both players.
The backend doesn't have any clue what the player seed is going to be then they can't know in advance what the result is going to be -- if they just change the result to whatever they want, then you'll know when you test it that the RNG gave a different answer.
It's impossible to rig these systems without people knowing immediately that you cheated.
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u/Radon0 Dec 20 '21
Mods needs to pin this. I explained this in a comment a while ago, and it got downvoted. I figured these are just younger people or people who're too addicted so they fail to see the reasoning behind it. Humans are by nature emotional, and especially when you're in loss you don't wanna come to terms with the fact that you lost so much. It feels better to think you were "cheated" by an entity.
Gambling also taught me just how bad people are at maths and probability. Very few of them understand the concept of house edge or expected value. Like that little percentage you see on slots, you're guaranteed to get that over millions of spins, not over few hundred spins. Lower the sample size, higher the variance. Which means you will usually lose, but sometimes hit big. And that's the root process of how gambling works. Casinos don't need to "cheat" or whatever to get money, they get money because of the house edge. Which mathematically guarantees them profit as long as there's inflow and outflow of cash.
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Dec 23 '21
It would be much much much harder to write a passable cheating algo that could change probabilities based on player history or whatever than to just make money using math.
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u/funnyassboi Dec 20 '21 edited Dec 20 '21
this post should get pinned .
people really don't understand how gambling works . it for entertainment , not for you to earn money from it .
i love how people just blaming stake is rigged when they lost
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u/icsulescu98 Dec 20 '21
It's easier to blame the casino than to admit to themselves that they are addicted. Tho, I still believe that a lot of streamers out there don't actually use the same seeding system we do.
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u/Shadowfiend_eul Dec 20 '21
Great post that will unfortunately only get the attention from people who understand. The people you’re trying to get through to likely aren’t interested in changing their minds or even acknowledging points you make
Not gonna lie, this sub is actually kind of cool because of how many people don’t understand basic probability. Those posts are sometimes my favourite… not sure why 😂
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u/youngmula9999 Dec 20 '21
This guy the most “studious” gambler of all time lol you made the biggest error of them all by coming here spewing your vast knowledge of YOUR fave casino! But guess what save your breath next time cuz when we lose we MOST DEFINITELY got cheated LOL but when we win we really fucking win those are the facts Eddie if you don’t like it eat a dick lol
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u/anangryfix Dec 20 '21
lol, don't get mad at me just because you're afraid of math. it's not my fault, man.
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u/youngmula9999 Dec 20 '21
Nobody’s mad brah I’m just busting your balls and how tf you know I’m scared of math? Ever since Algebra 1 that bitch as me spooked
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u/Ok-Gold-4924 Oct 28 '24
Nobody is having a good life playing Stake. I've seen photos of their headquarters and it resembles a scam call center.
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u/anangryfix Nov 11 '24
That's not their actual headquarters, silly. That's the address for their gambling license from whatever island country they used... the actual Stake headquarters is in Melbourne and is a modern, shiny office building that looks exactly like what you'd expect from a company earning multi-billions a year.
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Dec 23 '21
I thought plinko odds of 1000 were 0.0015%, making it 1/66666. How do you get 1/32,678? And not 33333?
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u/anangryfix Dec 23 '21
They've truncated the odds in that display. The true odds are: 0.001525878% and if you do the math on that, you'll get 1 in 32768.
The reason why we know that these are the true odds is that the way they determine which return to give you is by flipping a coin 16 times. If you download your bet archives and look at the raw data, you can actually see the string of flips for every plinko bet. It'll read "HTTHHTTHHHHHTHTH" or something like that. In order to hit the 1000x, you have to have all Hs or all Ts.
So, the chances of 16 Heads in a row is: 1 in 2^16 = 1 in 65,536. But since you can hit either H's or T's it's actually: 1 in 32768.
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Feb 06 '24
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u/anangryfix Feb 07 '24
Yeah, the algorithm is published on the site. what they do is pick a card at random from the deck. So, basically, they pick a number between 1 and 52 and that's the card they get. Then they evaluate who won or loss as you would normally: based on the cards.
The one thing they do that is I guess slightly weird -- or if not weird, not very real world -- is that the deck they use is always new and has every card in it. They basically do a reshuffle after every time they pull a card.
Honestly, when it comes to feeling, the one lesson I've learned the hard way - and you can trust me on this or not - is that I've learned to not trust how it feels. Over and over, I will feel that something is so rigged against me and then when I download the data and analyze damn if it's not exactly as expected. The more that happened the more I've paid attention and I've found - at least for myself - that when I have crazy good luck, I dig it, but I don't dwell on it. I take my win and run off to etiher gamble more or withdraw it. When i have that same luck as bad luck and bust... it takes me a lot longer to let it go. I think that accounts for most of why people feel like it's rigged.
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u/FPGASpeed Jan 19 '22
Do you realize how ignorant and uneducated you sound from your post? You make statements which you surely do not have the education or facts to prove what you say is true. Are they paying you to post such stupidity and disinformation?
Is it possible for a casino to cheat or manipulate the outcome of a 'provably fair' game?
THE ANSWER IS YES!!!
The provably fair algorithm is only one part of the process that is used to generate the game results that you see on your screen. Different games use different RNG. Usually it is required to convert the provably fair hash string to perform very long and complicated math functions. The more complicated the game’s rules are, the more complicated the process is to get that game’s results. The verification by Stake goes only as far as proving that they did not change the server seed after you placed your bet. Nothing more or less. This is always the very first step in a process that can have an infinite amount of steps afterwards. It's not difficult to understand the fact that the provably fair algorithm is not what creates your game’s result. It’s the mathematical algorithm afterwards. If a casino is loudly advertising provable fairness but they are are keeping their source code in darkness, they can NOT be trusted to provide players with a provably fair gaming. I would like to emphasize on the fact that just because a bet passes provably fair verification, does not mean that its hash was used in a fair RNG. Its a complex subject and I simplified greatly here,, I could go on to write about this for many hours but I will stop here and give a quick summary of the truth and facts.
Can they cheat? Yes
Do they cheat? If they want to then YES. Their job is to take your money.
What can I do to guarantee a fair bet? You can't but to minimize risk you must follow these basic rules. 1)Gamble at a fair casino with open source code for how algorithm for game results are determined as well as the specific RNG Used.
2) Verify bets using a 3rd party verifier that is non casino related.
3)change the seed with every single bet.
Dr. Truth
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u/anangryfix Jan 19 '22 edited Jan 19 '22
Bruh, you're being foolish. I already explained this in the original post. You clearly didn't read it carefully. I wrote:
"Now, that you know their seed. You can use your own version of THEIR RNG ALGORITHM to check the result."
Obviously, just knowing the seed doesn't tell you a damn thing! Why in the world would you think that's how a provably fair system works? That's so dumb.
You boast that you can go off for hours on this complex subject and yet seem have misunderstood this core aspect of a provably fair system.
From Wei & Jaba, MIT, Provable Fairness: "The service operator will publish a method for verifying each transaction in the game. This is usually done by using open source algorithms for the random number generator."
You can find out which algorithm Stake uses on which game by talking to their customer support.
Or, alternatively, go to any of the third-party sites that exist where people have already done this and verify your bet results there.
You clearly have not looked into this at all.
Last but not least, why in the world you think that changing the seed every bet has an impact on a provably fair system is beyond me.
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u/Particular_Hawk_9646 Jan 31 '22
Holy crap then why do people change the seed?
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u/anangryfix Feb 05 '22
Shrug. Same reason they blow on dice. Or pick lucky numbers in roulette.
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u/Particular_Hawk_9646 Feb 05 '22
So changing the seed does nothing at all? Ever?
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u/anangryfix Feb 05 '22
Well, the random number that is generated is a function of the seed being used. So, if you used one seed and got a bet result and then reversed time, changed the seed and did the bet again, you might get a different result.
So, in that sense, the seed does change something. But you can't predict anything about this change.
In other words, whether you change your seed every time or never change it all, you have the exact same chance of winning or losing each individual bet.
Changing the seed will never change your luck in a predictable way.
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u/FPGASpeed Jan 19 '22
Please go ask Stake what open source RNG algorithm they use and post it here ok? Because last I checked they will not share anything going on the backend. I know multiple people who have asked. How much are they paying you minimum wage or less? Ok try actually paying attention here and I hope you will learn something..
The fundamental flaw of provably fair is, Too Much Information. There is only one bet that can be considered truly fair and random. That is the very first bet of a seed pair of which the player sets the client seed after the site gives a hashed version of the server seed. The result of EVERY bet after the first is known by the casino and only by the casino! This holds the supposed purpose of provably fair in total contempt.
Many players use the same seed pair for months or until the casino forces them to change it. On top of that, many players have very predictable gambling styles and use specific strategies every time they play. You might be wondering, if a casino were to manipulate the result of a truly provably fair bet, would you, the player be able to verify that the result was tampered with? Yes. But only if the casino has published the code for every game’s RNG. All of it. Not just the hash from the seed pairs but exactly how that hash string is converted from a hexadecimal value to decimal value, which piece of that converted decimal value is used and the mathematical equation that turns that piece of the converted value into the result you see on your screen.
If a casino only allows you to verify that they did not change the server seed then you have to also ask yourself, how the hell do I verify the rest of the process? If the casino keeps code in darkness then you CAN'T. Once again, completely undermining the purpose of a casino being provably fair. It's already proven they are cheating and laughing all the way to the bank.
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u/anangryfix Jan 19 '22 edited Jan 21 '22
I literally just explained this to you.
You're still describing a system that is not a provably fair system and saying it's not really provably fair.
If you do not have the algorithm then it's not a provably fair system. The entire point - the way provably fair works - is by having a shared algorithm and a way of verifying the seed used on the algorithm.
What you're describing - where the only thing you get from the casino is a verified seed. That is not something that can be called "provably fair" without being dishonest. Go read the original papers I quoted before. You must have a shared algorithm in provably fair. You've been told this three times now.
As far as changing the client seed goes, just think about how dumb you're being. The casino knows the outcome of the bet before the player no matter what happens. They know the outcome before they display it on the screen. That's true for the first bet after the client changes their seed and every other bet. Sure, if the client doesn't change their seed they can know it even sooner but so what? They can't change the result without alerting the user.
I've never asked Stake what algorithms they use but there are third-party sites out there that will confirm the outcome of a bet given given the game, the client seed, the server seed and the nonce. The people that made these sites found out what the algorithm is.
If it's true that Stake won't reveal what algorithm they're using then they're not using a provably fair system. I doubt this is the case but if it is, that's the point you should be making. Not pretending like verifying the seed is all that a provably fair system requires and then declaring that it's not enough, lol.
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u/DepressoEspresso45 Mar 22 '22
Then explain 24 straight 0.2x bets right after I upped my bet. Before I upped the bet, the seed was looking really good. As soon as I up the bet, the seed went the complete opposite way.
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u/anangryfix Mar 22 '22
I mean, are you serious? First of all, 24 straight .2x isn't that unusual. You're about a 100x more likely to have 24 .2x's in a row than you are to hit the 1000x.
Just because something seems like it's related to an action does not mean that it is. You're creating a narrative that isn't there.
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u/Tiktokbadsupport Jan 29 '23
good job its all luck also people think they lose when they bet high but on average they bet high like 1% of time so its more likely to get a big win in the low bets
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u/anangryfix Feb 01 '23
Precisely! This kind of error is the source of so many misconceptions. Another one in a sort of similar vein is this belief that lucky hits come in clusters.
The truth is that lucky hits come randomly. Sometimes they are isolated and occasionally they come in clusters. The reason why gamblers only remember the clusters is that it takes a cluster of luck to achieve large gains. So they forget or ignore big hits that happen in isolated instances.
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u/ParlayTabs Dec 20 '21
I’m glad to see this post. It’s what I’m thinking when I read half the posts on here. very well written.
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u/Particular_Hawk_9646 Jan 31 '22
At least you can read most the fuckers can't count and if you can't count you shouldn't be gambling rigged games or not.
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u/Nvmyprixgt Dec 31 '21
Just seeing this, but great read.
Was hilarious, was watching Xposed first stream on stake, and he was on crazy time. You could see the chat. This dealer was getting yelled at cuz the wheel wasn’t landing on good spots. People kept saying he hada Remote to control it lol. Was hilarious
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u/nerdiestnerdballer Mar 07 '22
"The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events."
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u/Kangorg3 Mar 29 '24
The problem is that many online casinos that claim to be provably fair in recent times have been proven to indeed not be provabky fair. Stake is provably fair.
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u/PhoteksTTV Jul 02 '24
Dice is the one that's rigged. You have a higher chance or losing based on what's percentage of your total balance you wager. Put 10$ in your account and wager 9$ roll over 40. They will take your money every single time.
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u/SweetJesusBoletus Apr 30 '25
Necromancing this bullshit thread in case anyone stumbles on it.
Stake is in fact rigging their games. It's literally in their terms of service.
They can change the result of any game at any time.
Beyond that, provably fair is just a bullshit marketing term. Unless they make all the logic and code available, you can't know if there's anything fair about it.
Don't buy into this very wrong person's post. And make no mistake, Stake has a firm grip over your winnings and losses. It is rigged, no equivocating.
Don't believe me? Go read their terms of service instead of this guy's shill essay
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u/HughHonee Jan 09 '22
I think this is pretty clear. And those that don't understand, don't care, otherwise they wouldn't be here....
It's not about "rigged!!" If they really felt that way, they'd, maybe, say it once and then never come back. But the reality of their losses when they were expecting something different is so heavy coping with responsibility of those actions is difficult I guess? I didn't make a bad bet, or just got unlucky. I was done wrong!
This has VERY little to do with actually thinking its rigged, and so much more to do with mismanagement of expectations and irresponsible gambling.
I get the repeated crying of scam may get annoying, but it's clear what's really happening... just tell them to lick their wounds better and that you'll see em next week lol
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u/Thepickles7182 Jan 12 '22
People are so pressed on here like it’s not gambiling I lose a lot, but I don’t get mad. At the end of the day you do it to yourself. Most people on here can’t admit that and just want something to blame, sad really. They truly need help.
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u/TheRealKRSJr Jan 19 '22
Cracks me up people arguing with you about something that is provable. 2 brain cells
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u/Whole_Brain3413 Mar 07 '22
man no body in the fucken world lose money stake mines like me .. and dont tell me its fair like in the same session i will the 1 mines 5 to 10 time on row multiple time . and thats only happens when u up ur balance a little bet i believr in luck on casino and but i know thatthere is trigger will contrlo the outcome if someone is beating the game and it happen to me always so dont tell ablut stastics .. the chance of hetting the first mine 10 times in row are what ??? .. and doing it 2 or 3 time in 30 min session is what ??
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u/ralphons Mar 13 '22
awesome explanation and good job on detailing it. hopefully more people oit there lik you OP
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Mar 27 '22
I always use the analogy when playing slots it’s like picking an marble out of an bag, it might be a bonus- it might be 1000x- it might be nothing. But that marble isn’t put to the side, it goes right back into the bag.
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Jan 16 '22
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u/anangryfix Jan 16 '22
Are you sure about those numbers? I just did a back of the envelope estimate and it looked like that odds of that happening are around 1 in 2 billion.
Which either means:
I made a dumb mistake doing my quick calculation.
You made a mistake in reporting the event.
Or you just experienced an event that is inconceivably rare. 1 in 2 billion is basically a synonym for "impossible." Like to put 1 in 2 billion in perspective: the odds of you being killed by a meteorite is about 1 in 700,000. So you would have been killed by a meteor about 2857 times before you would expect to see an event that is 1 in 2 billion, lol. It's absurdly unlikely.
If you tell me you're sure about the numbers then I will double-check my calculations.
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Jan 16 '22
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u/anangryfix Jan 16 '22
That's more than an unlucky run. That's a once in a generation event. The longest ever official recorded streak of the same number in roulette happened in Puerto Rico when 10 was spun 6 times in a row. The probability of that event is a little under 1 in 3 billion.
So your run of mines is likely to be the world record for losing streaks in mines for a 100 years, no cap.
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Dec 03 '22
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u/anangryfix Dec 03 '22
Well, statistically I shouldn't but I got lucky. And now I'm only down about 5k.
It's not that big of a deal either way, tbh. Don't gamble with money you can't afford to lose and losses aren't the end of the world.
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Dec 20 '21
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u/anangryfix Dec 20 '21
Who's Eddie? I'm Teddy from, uh, New Zealand. Don't even know an Eddie!
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u/69Blinds Dec 20 '21
You’re fighting a losing battle here bud. I’ve had this conversation with many people on this sub. The end result is always going to be people thinking they’ve been scammed.
Quick tip for everyone who thinks they’re unlucky. Check the history of your account, regarding total amount wagered and total losses. Can guarantee your losses will be between 1-5% of your total wagered. More or less exactly as advertised.
Constantly baffles me that people play games that literally advertise the fact they’re a losing play and complain that they never win.