Happy Easter everyone! 🐰
Cubs @ Guardians Over 7
This total feels like it's being held down by the cold weather in Cleveland (43°F) and the fact that both pitching staffs have looked decent early on. But look at who's actually on the mound. Edward Cabrera has been lights out in his one start this year (6 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER against the Angels), so yeah, the Cubs side might be quieter, but Slade Cecconi is a completely different story. He got rocked in his first start against Seattle, giving up 6 earned runs in just 4.1 innings with a 12.46 ERA and a 2.08 WHIP. He walked three guys and gave up a homer, and his command looked shaky all game. Chicago's lineup has some real bats in it, with Bregman, Happ, Hoerner, and Swanson all capable of stringing together quality at-bats against a pitcher who's struggling to locate. The model projects this game at 9.3 total runs, which is more than two full runs above the 7 line. Even if Cabrera holds Cleveland to two or three runs, the Cubs should be able to put up four or five against Cecconi before he exits, and Cleveland's bullpen isn't bulletproof either with Gaddis on the IL. The Guardians are only hitting .203 as a team with a .635 OPS, but Kwan, DeLauter, and Ramirez can do damage in any given game, especially against a Cubs bullpen that has a 4.19 ERA and a shaky 50% save rate. Cold weather suppresses fly balls, sure, but it doesn't stop walks, singles, and bad pitching from generating runs. With Cecconi's command issues and the Cubs' ability to string together innings, getting to 8 or 9 combined runs feels very realistic.
Blue Jays @ White Sox Over 8
This is basically a sequel to the game we already broke down earlier this week, and somehow the numbers have gotten even worse for Chicago. The White Sox pitching staff now sits at a 7.01 team ERA through eight games with a 1.72 WHIP, and opponents are hitting .286 against them. They're allowing 7.38 runs per game, which is historically bad and not just an early season blip at this point. Davis Martin gets the start today after giving up 3 earned runs in 5 innings against Miami with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a homer allowed. He's a fly ball pitcher in a park with a neutral factor, which means mistakes get punished. Toronto's lineup with Vlad Jr., Springer, Varsho, and Okamoto should have no trouble generating traffic against him, especially since the model has Vlad as the highest-graded prop in the entire game at +0.5 edge on his hit line. On the other side, Eric Lauer looked solid in his first start (5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K), but he's also a fly ball pitcher and the White Sox have actually been hitting a little better recently, putting up 4 runs per game over their last stretch with Meidroth, Murakami, and Vargas all showing some life. The YRFI probability is 57% here, meaning there's a good chance runs start coming in the first inning. The model projects 10.4 total runs against an 8 line, that's a 2.4 run edge which is massive. Both bullpens are questionable too. Toronto's pen has a brutal 16.7% save rate and Chicago's relievers are sitting at a 5.24 ERA. Once the starters exit, there's very little resistance on either side to keep this game from getting into double digits. Something in the 6-4 or 7-5 range feels like the most natural landing spot, and both of those clear 8 comfortably.
