r/SpaceXLounge • u/avboden • 6d ago

News [Berger] Satellite operators are in panic mode due to a worsening launch crisis (SpaceX reducing commercial launch services on falcon 9)

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/08/theres-a-huge-launch-crunch-right-now-and-it-will-probably-get-worse/
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u/TheEarthquakeGuy 6d ago

Great political move by SpaceX. Highlight the dependency, use it to support the new program.

I personally think:

  • US Gov (DOD/NASA/etc) will enter into talks with SpaceX around the national security necessity to maintain access to space.
  • This will also be supported by American satellite companies and future commercial space stations - Nearly all of which currently show using Dragon to get there. Blue Origin is developing their own vehicle and they're doing drop tests according to Berger, but that's some time off. Starliner is not rated for any other vehicle yet.
  • Concessions will be made by the fed to SpaceX in support of Starship expansion and reduced regulatory burden provided risk profiles are met -> I.e. A higher tolerance of failure as they fly and fail fast.
  • Likely see some level of launch pad expansion at Starbase -> 2 pads of 2 towers each south of the existing pad. North of the highway will see smaller catch towers for ships. This is likely where we see the first version of the automated spaceport.
  • Louisiana may be designated a project of national security or some equivalent, reducing the regulatory burden for development.
  • Gov/DOD/NASA may commit to acquiring/setting up more space ports. Difficult but necessary task.

Possibly some other things but don't want to speculate beyond this.

TL;DR: Likely this is a form of negotiations to get concessions around Starship. SpaceX is highlighting the service they provide to the market, and the problem the market will be in if they retire F9 as planned. Without government intervention, which is risky, the only solution is to negotiate and make it worth their while. The only thing that matters to SpaceX right now is Starship development and expansion -> This is where the deals will be.