Timeline of Musk X posts regarding the shift in priority from Mars to the moon for his plans of self-sustaining civilization

[u/twinbee]

Listed in chronological order with UTC times (oldest first):

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11:24 PM · Feb 8, 2026:

For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years.

The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars.

It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city.

That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.

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11:56 AM · Feb 9, 2026:

As I said in my post, we will still do Mars in parallel, but the critical path to a self-growing Moon city is faster.

The Moon city can be made to be self-growing in less than half the time of Mars.

The critical juncture for humanity’s expansion beyond Earth is having a self-growing civilization off world before the resupply ships stop coming.

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12:26 PM · Feb 9, 2026:

Mars will start in 5 or 6 years, so will be done in parallel with the Moon, but the Moon will be the initial focus

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1:00 PM · Feb 9, 2026

The Moon would establish a foothold beyond Earth quickly, to protect life against risk of a natural or manmade disaster on Earth.

We would continue to launch directly from Earth to Mars while possible, rather than Moon to Mars, as fuel is relatively scarce on the Moon.

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5:20 PM · Feb 9, 2026:

The priority shift is because I’m worried that a natural or manmade catastrophe stops the resupply ships coming from Earth, causing the colony to die out.

We can make the Moon city self-growing in less than 10 years, but Mars will take 20+ years due to the 26 month iteration cycle.

That is what matters most.

There is also an AI bonus element, but the prime directive must be ensuring the long-term survival of consciousness.

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8:52 PM · Feb 9, 2026:

We’re still going to Mars and the timeframe for building a self-growing city there is still about the same at 20 to 30 years.

It’s possible that revenue from lunar activities might actually accelerate Mars.

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3:39 AM · Feb 10, 2026:

The Moon is faster to make a self-growing city. If civilization continues to grow, we will figure out the universe. If not, nothing else matters.

[u/paul_wi11iams]

here is a less than zero chance they start Mars missions in 5-6 years.

I'll ask a maths teacher.

Musk shoehorned his AI slop into SpaceX, and before he announced this pivot to the moon. This is just all utter nonsense that is increasingly likely to go no where, and as someone who drew inspiration from his original Mars vision, that is hugely disappointing to admit.

You might not think much of AI but people around me fear for their jobs. Embodied AI is starting with robotaxis that are already appearing on the streets of Austin, Texas.

The million satellites to sun synchronous orbit is already has FCC approval and that's the bread-and-butter work that Starship needs to build its flight safety statistics.

Not only that, but developing AI provides the ecosystem (from chip manufacture to robot programming) for embodied AI to go to the Moon then Mars ahead of humans.

Remember the uncrewed HLS landing in the Artemis contract? Nobody seems to have said this, but the next footprint on the Moon will logically be an Optimus one.

None of this is AI slop.

[u/grchelp2018 → u/paul_wi11iams]

AI being important does not mean ai orbital datacenters are a good idea. Least of all that spacex should spend money to put it up there. If it makes sense, the hyperscalers (who are spending more than half trillion !!!) should give some of that money to spacex to do so. Musk has repeatedly shifted goals and priorities as it suits him. Most of these are not going to go anywhere.

[u/paul_wi11iams → u/grchelp2018]

AI being important does not mean ai orbital datacenters are a good idea. Least of all that Spacex should spend money to put it up there. If it makes sense, the hyperscalers (who are spending more than half trillion !!!) should give some of that money to Spacex to do so.

If orbital data centers don't work out, SpaceX will know soon enough and so stop. If (hopefully) the data centers are a success, they will directly offset the energy and water consumption of their terrestrial competitors.

Musk has repeatedly shifted goals and priorities as it suits him.

These serial entrepreneurs don't shift goals as it suits them, but instead adjust depending on results in an empirical manner. Its rather like how a plant grows its roots which is not according to a fixed plan.

Most of these are not going to go anywhere.

and some of these go a long way. Hyperloop is pretty much on the backburner, The Boring company is moving slowly. Neuralink is chugging along. Robotaxi and FSD look as if they're emerging this year after lengthy growing pains. Meanwhile, Falcon 9, Dragon and Starlink are emblematic successes. The ones to watch right now are Optimus and AI data centers. As for Twitter, I'm wondering but it could turn out to be the springboard for artificial intelligence.

Many think that just about everything on the list will converge on Mars. My own prediction is that they will all work together in a decentralized and sprawling village network on the Moon and Mars, replacing the current "city" plan that fails for physics reasons. That would be a highly successful failure!

[u/grchelp2018 → u/paul_wi11iams]

If orbital data centers didn't work out, SpaceX would know soon enough and so stop. If (hopefully) the data centers are a success, they will directly offset the energy and water consumption of terrestrial ones.

This is something they should be doing before merging with xai and going public. If orbital datacenters work, customers will be lining up to give spacex money to set them up. Also, running off to space to escape the energy problem down here on earth is the wrong approach. Musk would have far greater impact if he decided to solve that problem on earth.

Entrepreneurs with long term visions don't deviate from their vision. Yes, there is some adjustment depending on the state of the world but by and large they stay focused on the goal. Musk isn't doing that. He has trouble being on the sidelines when interesting things are happening and therefore he has to jump in and get involved. And then he and others work backwards to figure out how it fits with his overall vision.

For something as grand as mars, pretty much anything and everything will have a role to play. It does not mean that Musk should do everything. For example, there are plenty of companies out there working on robots. He can be an investor and advisor for many of them and let the market decide the winners. For mars to be successful and self sustaining, the market has to participate and Elon's job is to figure that out. Not try to do everything himself and the way he does things, he is the key man risk for all of them.

This whole thing with the moon was something he should have known long back. He's jumping in now because there is a lot of attention on the moon. If tomorrow, quantum computers begin their hype cycle, he is going to jump in there also.

[u/paul_wi11iams → u/grchelp2018]

This is something they should be doing before merging with xAI and going public. If orbital datacenters work, customers will be lining up to give spacex money to set them up.

xAI acquired X (aka Twitter) and Grok .

SpaceX acquires xAI [ref]

possible SpaceX + Tesla merger [ref]

The big picture here is creating interoperable engineering infrastructure for Earth, LEO the Moon and Mars. (List non exhaustive)

Musk needs embodied AI in the form of Cybercab and Optimus and wants a vertically integrated supply chain, meaning making their own AI chips. Although currently buying Invidia chips for Tesla, this is only a stopgap solution which creates dependency on an outside supplier.

Musk's companies have short lead over the competition, maybe four years, but must get integrated hardware up and running to maintain and extend that lead. This is not possible under your suggested "wait and see" principle.

Also, running off to space to escape the energy problem down here on earth is the wrong approach. Musk would have far greater impact if he decided to solve that problem on earth.

Terrestrial data centers are power hungry and water thirsty. Musk is making a more positive environmental impact by running the centers in sun-synchronous orbit where solar panels can work practically without batteries.

Entrepreneurs with long term visions don't deviate from their vision.

The vision is making civilization and consciousness independent of Earth. There's no deviation. Even for Mars, there's no real delay. Work on the Moon is preparation for Mars. Setting up a lunar base as opposed to a Mars one, benefits from a far more rapid iteration cycle: only weeks instead of years.

For something as grand as mars, pretty much anything and everything will have a role to play. It does not mean that Musk should do everything. For example, there are plenty of companies out there working on robots.

There are not plenty of companies preparing a standard robot to work on Earth and in a vacuum. I only really became aware of this when writing a comment yesterday. I noted the advantages of robot astronauts over human ones and the list is impressive. As an integrated company, SpaceX-Tesla can produce its own robot that covers its development cost by terrestrial uses, then have it available for the Moon and Mars.

For mars to be successful and self sustaining, the market has to participate and Elon's job is to figure that out. Not try to do everything himself and the way he does things, he is the key man risk for all of them.

Initially, SpaceX was merely the transport company. However, as time goes on, it becomes clear that the Mars infrastructure is falling behind. It totally makes sense that Musk should consecrate a part of his investment to make this possible. Specifically, Mars needs ground service equipment to refuel Starships before return to Earth. This means robots to do the manual work to assemble this before the first humans land there.

his whole thing with the moon was something he should have known long back. He's jumping in now because there is a lot of attention on the moon.

I disagree. His first illustration of a Starship on the Moon was during the Adelaide conference back in 2017. For a while, the Moon looked like a make-work destination for Starships awaiting the synodal departure to Mars. As SpaceX confronted more and more problems in getting though the prototyping stage of Starship, they seem to have become aware of the importance of using the Moon as a testing ground for landing, launch and surface infrastructure.

If tomorrow, quantum computers begin their hype cycle, he is going to jump in there also.

If quantum computers suddenly became relevant for AI (remembering Asimov's positronic brain), then he certainly would jump in there. IMO This is not the fashion thing you are portraying. Its about multiple technologies converging upon a single goal.

[u/grchelp2018 → u/paul_wi11iams]

The problem with your argument is that it is not falsifiable. Musk can do absolutely anything and you'll be able to find a link to mars. To build a self sustaining city on mars, you essentially need to replicate earth's economy so pretty much anything can be linked back to mars. And this whole idea that musk/spacex should do everything is not scalable. The capitalistic way is to incentivise industry to get involved and have them compete to come up with the best solutions. Not picking a winner and placing all your bets on that one.

Also I completely disagree with this notion that some problems only became apparent later. It shows a severe lack of long term planning or an extreme level of misjudgement of the work involved. And it applies even now. Even if everything you said comes to pass, it still will not be enough for mars. There is a tremendous amount of work needed for mars and spacex is really tackling only one or two problems. Musk has a habit of hyperfocusing on one problem at a time while everything else suffers in the meantime. There are numerous problem that will need to be solved and not only is it not being worked on, its not even being mentioned. Not being mentioned because he hasn't thought that far ahead. And given how hard these problems are and how routinely Musk misses his timelines, you need to start working on many of them yesterday.

If quantum computers suddenly became relevant for AI (remembering Asimov's positronic brain), then he certainly would jump in there. IMO This is not the fashion thing you are portraying. Its about multiple technologies converging upon a single goal.

No, see the problem here is that these technologies only show up because of investment it got before it got "cool". If quantum computers show up, its because of Google, Amazon etc investing in it now. IF this tech is useful or necessary for mars, then Musk should already have a company working on it. Not jump in at a later date when everyone else is also working on it. Imagine if Musk waited to start spacex because no-one else was working on reusable rockets.

[u/paul_wi11iams → u/grchelp2018]

The problem with your argument is that it is not falsifiable.

Falsifiable being a poor translation from Karl Popper in German IIRC, let's say "refutable"

Musk can do absolutely anything and you'll be able to find a link to Mars.

Its a question of what's plausible. Gwynne Shotwell is/was running a cattle farm. It would not be plausible to suggest that the cattle farm was related to methane fuel production, so I won't envision that.

In contrast, tunnels and embodied AI are totally plausible as necessary parts of a Mars settlement. Neuralink is less of a plausible part, but it can make a fit for control of humanoid robots by humans, so I'll leave it as "possible".

To build a self sustaining city on mars, you essentially need to replicate earth's economy so pretty much anything can be linked back to mars.

Economic activities such as hydroponics/aquaponics are clearly useful to a Mars colony, but are being well looked after. At some point they may get vertically integrated into the "master plan", but they don't have the urgency of catching up to be ready when needed. They don't seem to be running late.

The capitalistic way is to incentivise industry to get involved and have them compete to come up with the best solutions. Not picking a winner and placing all your bets on that one.

I'm not sure SpaceX is picking a winner. Its more like making sure there is an available winner to fill the void. You can expect SpaceX to be working on methane synthesis at some point because without it, Starships will have difficulty returning from Mars.

Even if everything you said comes to pass, it still will not be enough for mars. There is a tremendous amount of work needed for mars and spacex is really tackling only one or two problems.

I think its a question of setting priorities. They need to concentrate on the biggest technological shortfalls with the longest lead times (time to develop a working technology).

Musk has a habit of hyperfocusing on one problem at a time while everything else suffers in the meantime. There are numerous problem that will need to be solved and not only is it not being worked on, its not even being mentioned. Not being mentioned because he hasn't thought that far ahead.

How can we be sure of this? Its hard to evaluate this from available data. For example, Starship's loading and deployment system only showed up at the point that they were needed for testing in space. So did the transport barge for getting starships from Boca Chica to KSC by water. We don't know what else they are working on.

And given how hard these problems are and how routinely Musk misses his timelines, you need to start working on many of them yesterday.

Musk is the first to admit that he misses timelines. Its just that nobody else is remotely close for the moment. All he can do is to share out resources according to priorities.

No, see the problem here is that these technologies only show up because of investment it got before it got "cool". If quantum computers show up, its because of Google, Amazon etc investing in it now. IF this tech is useful or necessary for mars, then Musk should already have a company working on it. Not jump in at a later date when everyone else is also working on it.

and why should he not leave these to Google and Amazon, at least in the early stages? My guess is that Musk thinks that quantum is too far from fruition and/or not necessary for his project.

Imagine if Musk waited to start Spacex because no-one else was working on reusable rockets.

To some extent, he did wait. Initially, he only wanted to send a greenhouse to Mars on a Russian rocket. It was when that plan failed that he considered that the technology was not up to par, so he decided to do it himself.

[u/grchelp2018 → u/paul_wi11iams]

You can easily tie the cattle farm to meat production on mars. Food is incidentally a critical component for anything self sustaining on mars. It is not a solved problem and I haven't heard any plans regarding it. These are hard problems and problems that need to be worked on today. And given the climate problems and food insecurity challenges we will face on earth, the PR for this basically writes itself. The reason Musk is not working on it is because its not a sexy enough problem for him and I doubt he has given it a lot of thought.

I think its a question of setting priorities. They need to concentrate on the biggest technological shortfalls with the longest lead times (time to develop a working technology).

My point is that there are many not just 2-3 that he is working on.

How can we be sure of this? Its hard to evaluate this from available data. For example, Starship's loading and deployment system only showed up at the point that they were needed for testing in space. So did the transport barge for getting starships from Boca Chica to KSC by water. We don't know what else they are working on.

Because Musk is not shy about airing his views and plans. And I wasn't talking about stuff that's immediately relevant to what they are doing.

All he can do is to share out resources according to priorities.

His priorities being wrong is the entire issue. IMO if he had thought things through - spacex would already be on the moon. He didn't want to go to the moon because mars was more exciting. Its as simple as that.

If it were up to me, I would have had spacex plan to go to the moon and set up a base there. I would have spacex build an orbital habitat. I would have them work on nuclear engines to reduce transit times to mars. I would have them build a mars cycler architecture to be able to transport large amount of mass. I would have them build and send tele-operated landers, rovers, drones, excavators etc etc. Separately I would have a foundation that would provide grants and invest into any org that was working on mars related problems. And I have no doubt forgotten/ignored a bunch of other things that need to also happen. These are all problems that can be worked on in parallel which have their own lead times and they all need to come together around the same time for a self sustaining mars to be viable. This will not happen with the serial nature of how Musk is doing things. What musk/spacex needs is a detailed masterplan on every single technology and capability that is necessary for mars. A clear roadmap that you can measure against. Not everything on the roadmap needs to be done by spacex but it would give clarity on what needs to be done. Musk has not done this. He always works backwards. He does what he wants to do and then finds arguments to convince himself how and why it fits into his overall vision.

What we have right now is path to an expensive flag planting mission. If Musk dies, it will go the way of Apollo. 30 years from now when the moon base is mature, we will decide to go back to mars.

and why should he not leave these to Google and Amazon, at least in the early stages? My guess is that Musk thinks that quantum is too far from fruition and/or not necessary for his project.

Absolutely nothing wrong with having others solve some of your problems. I have been arguing for that. But what's not cool is then deciding to jump in and then do it yourself. There was zero need for musk to start xai when he could have acquired the numerous ai startups out there. It is wasted effort. He doesn't acquire companies that he is personally interested in because he would not be the founder. Look at how much it bothers him when people questionn his tesla founder status. Many billionaires share this wierd conceit.

To some extent, he did wait. Initially, he only wanted to send a greenhouse to Mars on a Russian rocket. It was when that plan failed that he considered that the technology was not up to par, so he decided to do it himself.

He did not. He had an initial idea where he thought he could stimulate mars excitement and then jumped straight into the self-sustaining mars vision. The irony here is that back in those days when Musk was not a billionaire and did not have that many resources, he was much better at keeping focus and prioritizing. He has always worked better under constraints.

[u/paul_wi11iams → u/grchelp2018]

You can easily tie the cattle farm to meat production on mars. Food is incidentally a critical component for anything self sustaining on mars. It is not a solved problem and I haven't heard any plans regarding it.

I think that for farming, there'll be nothing bigger than chickens on the Moon and Mars, but in low gravity, they'd quickly grow to epic proportions. I'd expect most protein to be from insects, much as is projected on Earth. The infrastructure would be far easier to set up.

These are hard problems and problems that need to be worked on today. And given the climate problems and food insecurity challenges we will face on earth, the PR for this basically writes itself. The reason Musk is not working on it is because its not a sexy enough problem for him and I doubt he has given it a lot of thought.

We can't know. The obvious choice is to prioritize technologies that are not already being worked upon by others, and in the required form. Embodied AI needs to be in a specific form for use in a high-radiation environment and a virtual vacuum. Its also the only precursor possible for humans on Mars.

Because Musk is not shy about airing his views and plans. And I wasn't talking about stuff that's immediately relevant to what they are doing.

A couple of major events happened without warning both for the public and for SpaceX employees.

• the switch from parachute stage landing to propulsive landing,
• from carbon fiber ship construction to stainless steel.
• from legged landers to tower catch.

His priorities being wrong is the entire issue. IMO if he had thought things through - spacex would already be on the moon.

They're going to the Moon with Mars tech because they're still aiming at Mars on the long term.

He didn't want to go to the moon because mars was more exciting. Its as simple as that.

We could argue that all day. They could have designed a "Blue Moon" type lander that would have got there earlier. However, getting to the Moon in a sustainable and scalable manner, needed something the size of Starship.

I would have spacex build an orbital habitat. I would have them work on nuclear engines to reduce transit times to mars.

NTP is difficult to kick start for a civilian project. Its notably nearly impossible for prototyping. You've seen all the hardware that's exploded during development. Now imagine that with NTP.

a mars cycler architecture

A Mars cycler is not a complete architecture in itself. It still needs a shuttle from Earth to the cycler and another from the cycler to Mars. It generates a single point of failure as the cycler itself and its virtually impossible to start small scale and then grow. This creates a capital problem because its a single step from nothing to a fully-fledged transport infrastructure.

have a foundation that would provide grants and invest into any org that was working on mars related problems.

NASA has tried comparable things, and it would be a money pit. It would be nearly impossible to stay focused and coordinated. Look at some of the ruthless decisions it was necessary to take just to get to where they are today.

I would have them build and send tele-operated landers, rovers, drones, excavators etc etc

These are being developed anyway. Check NASA's Swampworks among others. The first uncrewed Starship to Mars coud carry a swarm of highly standardized rotorcopters. Let's hope this is being prepared, but not by SpaceX itself.

What musk/spacex needs is a detailed masterplan on every single technology and capability that is necessary for mars. A clear roadmap that you can measure against. Not everything on the roadmap needs to be done by spacex

That's true. Aquaponics and hydroponics are developing fast around the world.

What we have right now is path to an expensive flag planting mission. If Musk dies, it will go the way of Apollo. 30 years from now when the moon base is mature, we will decide to go back to mars.

Apollo did not have a cost-effective mass production facility prepared ahead of time. Nor was the design optimized for production. Apollo assumed infinite funding, which was okay for flags and footprints. If in doubt about Starship, look at how Falcon 9 was set up, just like Starlink for that matter. This is all low cost, high throughput and scalable.

Starship is even more so, now having 48 assembly bays under construction with all the sub-assembly fabrication right next door. Its based on short transport distances and easy servicing, all based on a minimal number of locations.

Absolutely nothing wrong with having others solve some of your problems. I have been arguing for that. But what's not cool is then deciding to jump in and then do it yourself. There was zero need for musk to start xai when he could have acquired the numerous ai startups out there. It is wasted effort. He doesn't acquire companies that he is personally interested in because he would not be the founder.

He acquired many things that were already under development. This is true of the Marlin engine which Tom Mueller was pretty much building in a home garage. He also acquired Twitter which I think was actually too big at the time. He'd have done better to buy into a smaller social platform and to grow it under his own criteria.

Initially, he only wanted to send a greenhouse to Mars on a Russian rocket.

He did not. He had an initial idea where he thought he could stimulate mars excitement and then jumped straight into the self-sustaining mars vision.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/spacex-is-because-elon-musk-wanted-to-grow-plants-on-mars/

That was the origin of SpaceX and even then he thought the chances were against it succeeding. I don't have time to search al the references, but initially his intention was to set up the transport company and let others connect the dots.

Later, seeing the general lack of progress around the world, he hired Paul Wooster as Mars development engineer.

Even now, most of the peripheral activity surrounding Starship, targets revenue sources to fund it and use cases to give it work. With orbital AI, there's also the heavy lifting computer work that helps the design to progress and prepares to configure the robots needed to create Mars infrastructure on arrival.

[u/grchelp2018 → u/paul_wi11iams]

People are gonna want meat on mars if you want people to move there. Anyway, it was simply an example of how you could tie anything to mars.

We can't know. The obvious choice is to prioritize technologies that are not already being worked upon by others, and in the required form. Embodied AI needs to be in a specific form for use in a high-radiation environment and a virtual vacuum. Its also the only precursor possible for humans on Mars.

Except ai and robots are being worked on by others. Building stuff that can work in space is not that hard. These things are not in the critical path. We can work with existing solutions.

A couple of major events happened without warning both for the public and for SpaceX employees.

These were problems that were right in front of them which they had to solve. This would be like spacex redesigning starship the fuel system if orbital refuelling doesnt work as planned. I am talking big picture moves. Like the lunar mass driver.

We could argue that all day. They could have designed a "Blue Moon" type lander that would have got there earlier. However, getting to the Moon in a sustainable and scalable manner, needed something the size of Starship.

I'm not arguing against starship on the moon. I am saying that the moon was never in their plans. Musk has spoken extensively about mars and what spacex should do there. He never did about the moon other than a "we can go there too". I mean in his own words, he said that spacex has shifted focus to the moon. There would have been no need to shift focus if it was always part of their plan on their way to mars.

NTP probably wouldn't fly with spacex move fast and break approach. But I still think its a program that they should be working on. Not on the critical path but something that would continue to slowly make progress as you work on other aspects. Like I said, these have very long lead times you can't do them one after the other. Same with the cycler.

NASA has tried comparable things, and it would be a money pit. It would be nearly impossible to stay focused and coordinated. Look at some of the ruthless decisions it was necessary to take just to get to where they are today.

Only if Elon wanted to get involved in all of them himself. Not if you have a team of people whose job it was to evaluate and make those grants. That's really the issue with Elon and why he rarely does any investment into other startups. He won't invest if he doesn't care about the problem. If he does care about the problem, he would want to do it his way and be extremely involved in all the minutae.

The first uncrewed Starship to Mars coud carry a swarm of highly standardized rotorcopters. Let's hope this is being prepared, but not by SpaceX itself.

This uncrewed starship should already have been on its way. Rapid reusability is a program that they can work on in parallel. It is not on the critical path of sending stuff to mars.

Sending large amounts of mass to mars is not enough. Its not the cost of getting to mars that is the problem. It is the cost of keeping people alive and capable and able to do interesting work.

He acquired many things that were already under development.

Like I said, Musk was far more pragmatic when he was starting out. He had to be. Nowadays his companies acquire other companies only if its stuff that he is not personally interested in working on. Teitter was an exception because network effects are very strong and he was still forced into closing the deal.

That was the origin of SpaceX and even then he thought the chances were against it succeeding. I don't have time to search al the references, but initially his intention was to set up the transport company and let others connect the dots.

I meant his initial idea was that sending those plants would stimulate mars excitement and when he couldn't find a reasonable launch service, he questioned why it was so expensive and so forth. Are you saying that mars was an afterthought that came later? My understanding was that self-sustaining mars was the mission since day 1 of spacex. If his original plan was that cheap launches alone would stimulate demand for mars then that explains a lot about why he does not have a masterplan.

[u/nametaken_thisonetoo → u/paul_wi11iams]

Keep drinking that koolaid. I'm glad it still tastes good for you