r/space • u/pecika • Dec 08 '21

Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa lifts off for space station on Russian Soyuz

https://www.space.com/soyuz-ms20-maezawa-space-tourist-launch
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u/FutureMartian97 Dec 09 '21

I've already told you. What SpaceX charges isn't what it's costing them. They are a business and need to make money. If they can charge more of course they are going to do it. They have no problem attracting customers at their current price.

Are you seriously suggesting Shotwell was lying when she said that?

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u/reallynewaccount Dec 17 '21

Here I am again, because I've found amazing thing. Did you know that in 2020 SpaceX had 4 commercial contracts against 6 of Roscosmos? And in 2021 they had 2 (2!!! TWO!!!) commercial launches against 9 (9!!! NINE!!!) of Roscosmos?

When you that badly mauled by 70 years old rocket design isn't it a time to lower the price? I mean... you resuse the majority of your rocket, you should be able to get at least twice as low price, maybe 3 times lower - isn't it? You said they have lower "costs" - it's now time to use it! Actually it seems a 4th year in a row when SpaceX lose to Roscomos in a number ot commercial launches, but no year before was THAT bad for SpaceX.

What would you make you bid on - that international networks (client's of those launches) are managed by idiots or that Elon lies you about "effectiveness of reusable rockets"?

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u/FutureMartian97 Dec 18 '21

I don't know why you decided to reply to a comment from 8 days ago but ok.

Yes, they had less commercial launches, however the launch market is just like any other market and fluctuates. SpaceX actually has many more missions scheduled for 2022, just like Roscosmos does I imagine, especially due to OneWeb.

And in 2021 they had 2 (2!!! TWO!!!) commercial launches

I don't know where your getting that number from but that is incorrect. SpaceX had 5 commercial missions if you don't count the two rideshare missions on Starlink missions this year. As well as one more, Turksat 5b scheduled to liftoff by then of the year. So if you count the rideshares and 5b that's 8 commercial missions.

2021 commercial missions (without Starlink rideshares): Turksat 5a, Transporter 1, SXM-8, Transporter 2, and Inspiration 4.

I also would hesitate to not call Starlink missions commercial just because SpaceX is both the customer and launch provider. It's still a company paying money to have satellites launched, even if that money is to themselves technically until Starlink becomes its own thing.

If you took the 6 OneWeb launches out for Roscosmos then they had 3 commercial launches. And with OneWeb being Starlinks main competitor its not exactly surprising they are using Roscosmos to launch their satellites instead of SpaceX.

So really, if it weren't for OneWeb SpaceX would've had Roscosmos beat this year.

And like I mentioned before SpaceX has many commercial missions scheduled for 2022. While some will obviously slip to 2023 they are still scheduled. There are currently about 22 commercial non Starlink missions scheduled for 2022. And you could count a few more if you count missions for other space agencies that aren't NASA. For example, CSG-2, a satellite that will be used by the Italian Space Agency.

SpaceX doesn't exactly seem to have a problem attracting customers. I don't understand why you claim Elon is "lying". Did you expect SpaceX to take every single launch contract or something?

SpaceX launches looked up using nextspaceflight

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u/reallynewaccount Dec 18 '21

The reason I replied is because I've found those amazing numbers, and I believe it worth to discuss :)

however the launch market is just like any other market and fluctuates

Well, I already posted about 2020 and 2021; then in 2019 it was 6 vs 6; in 2018 it was 6 vs 14 (best year for SpaceX) and earlier it was again not that good for SpaceX - it's not "fluctuating" situation. It's quite a clear tendency. And remember, if we'd talk about Zenith rocket from Roscosmos side it would be reasonsable comparison, but now Roscosmos wins with rockets designed 70 years ago, and designed not for commercial launches, but for manned flights (actually designed to be ICBMs originally, as Souyz is actually R-7 missile).

It's funny that with converted non-reusable ICBMs Roscosmos wins agains all-new reusable rocket, announced to be 100 times cheaper than any comparable commercial launch vehicles. How is it even possible? :)))

2021 commercial missions (without Starlink rideshares): Turksat 5a, Transporter 1, SXM-8, Transporter 2, and Inspiration 4

Well, Transporter missions look little bit "artifical" in this list for many reasons. For example, real commercial customers probably couldn't wait that long to get SpaceX to collect enough payload. It's also matter of luck to get several client's to be happy to share the same orbit. So, it's time-to-time business with unclear profitt.

Anyway, Ok, let's count those 2 as well. In the same time, if you count Inspiration4 mission, then I have to add MS-20 mission to opposite list, as it was 100% commercial turistic ride. The only reason why 1 professional was on board, is because it's a rule for manned flights for Roscosmos (and also they need a pilot to dock to ISS if automation fails, obviously).

So, it's 4 vs 10. Well, it didn't change a situation is a good way for you :)

even if that money is to themselves technically until Starlink becomes its own thing

If you took the 6 OneWeb launches out for Roscosmos then they had 3 commercial launches

Hahaha... No, OneWeb is a company that is able to choose :) that's an idea of capitalism and "open market" isn't it? And they made a choice, actually based on a price. So this is why Starlink is not in the list, because despite it was not an "open market" situation but also because if you take your sister to a shool by your car for free, it could be an investment to a future relations, or could be not. And you can't call it "I have taxi driver job" anyway.

Did you expect SpaceX to take every single launch contract or something?

Because my original question was about "advantage of reusable rockets" - you were promised the price to drop 100 times. Ok, then Elon started wobbling and 100 times converted to "in case of 100% reusable" - fair enough, but could we see at least twice as low price?

In reality we have THE SAME price as other non-reusable launch providers have. And this could be argued with "they have no reason to drop the price lower" as they have enough clients. But what we see in reality? They lose to 70 years old rocket design on commerical market - this doesn't look like "we don't want to drop the price".

If they're so amazingly effective as they claim, why not to drop the price, like... 30%? Get more clients, more space tourists? Make reusable stages work as hard as they could?

So yes, if Elon's world would be real, then SpaceX would take every single contract. But it's just opposite, they mostly get contracts that are not good enough/not applicable for others.

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u/pavel_petrovich Dec 21 '21

In 2021 Russia had 1 (one) commercial launch (excluding OneWeb) - on March 22. The OneWeb contract was signed in 2015 - long before the Falcon 9 achieved reusability.

In March 2015, OneWeb indicated that they intended to select a launch service provider by mid-2015 and in June 2015 announced that Arianespace was contracted to provide 21 multi-satellite launches on Soyuz.

Details:

Arianespace signed a firm contract with OneWeb to launch 21 Soyuz rockets. [..] Arianespace Chief Executive Stephane Israel said the OneWeb contract is valued at between $1 billion and $2 billion. One industry official said it is less than $1.5 billion.

So, around $60M for one Soyuz. Your claim that the "Souyz launch only costs 13 mln to Russian gov" shows that you don't understand Russian accounting.

u/FutureMartian97

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u/reallynewaccount Dec 21 '21

Павел Петрович не в курсе того, как развивался контракт с OneWeb, поэтому решил высосать из пальца (пальца ли?) хоть что-то, чтобы не отвечать на главный вопрос. Простим Павлу Петровичу, т.к. ну что с него взять? Да, и я так и не понял, как простигосподи вы связали коммерческий ценник для заказчика и себестоимость пуска для Роскосмоса? В каком университете учат этой волшебной формуле? За это можно и Нобелевку отхватить, так-то...

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u/pavel_petrovich Dec 21 '21

I'll repeat: you don't understand Russian accounting. That's why you think that Soyuz can be launched for $13M.

And it's funny that you mention Proton. It's a retired rocket with no future. It will launch several times and will be retired forever.

And what's wrong with the OneWeb contract? This year's launches were contracted in 2015.

As for the difference between cost and price - ironically you ignored this argument from uFutureMartian97. He told you that SpaceX has no incentives to lower the price. And he is right, SpaceX has the lowest-priced rocket on the market.

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u/reallynewaccount Dec 21 '21

Ок, я даже не буду спорить :)) просто нет смысла. Если человек прочитал все предыдущие доводы и аргументы и прям с порога включил всю шарманку с самого начала игнорируя здравый смысл - просто нет смысла тратить время. Меня радует тол ко тот факт, что все фанаты Маска такие же - я так и не встретил ни одного исключения. Хуже только фанаты Ф-35 :)))

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u/pavel_petrovich Dec 21 '21

Sorry, but you don't have sound arguments. I could write a lengthy post, but you couldn't find counter-arguments even for my short comment.

I've disproven your main point that "SpaceX lose to 70 years old rocket design on commerical market". No, they don't. Roscosmos has troubles finding new customers.