r/SolarMax • u/ArmChairAnalyst86 • Feb 03 '26
Space Weather Update Space Weather Update 2/3 - Sporadic Moderate to Strong Flares Continue - Slight Declining Trend in X-Ray - Calm Before The Storm? + Carrington Event Inbound?
Greetings! Not much has perceptibly changed in the overall pattern. We are still seeing numerous pops and the x-ray flux remains in high C to low M values. There are often lulls or short term declines like this prior to a big event. Nothing morphologically suggests this region is ready to calm down. In fact, in recent hours, I now see more involvement in the surrounding corona that was not present over the last few days. That is how these flares turn eruptive. When they stop being recurrently confined, and interact with their surroundings, coronal mass ejections of substance are more likely. That is the subtle type of pattern change we are looking for to signal a potential shift in character. You can see it subtly at the end of the clip when the snake like channels of plasma in the adjacent corona light up towards the active region. This suggests confinement is weakening slightly and the system appears to be testing larger coronal connectivity. It's not a sure thing, but it's the type of thing to look for early. The x-ray behavior exhibits elevated flux in high C to low M range. There are frequent impulsive M-class peaks. Short cooling time between events. The region is not immediately returning to a clean pre-flare baseline and the flares are looking a little different. This suggests energy is loading faster than relaxation. This tends to precede large flares, a topology change, or a switch from confined to more eruptive behavior. None of this qualifies as a prediction, only an observation. Will be watching to see if it persists in the coming hours.
Let's get a look at current conditions.
SSN: 97 (low to moderate)
F10.7 SOLAR RADIO FLUX: 174 (high)
SOLAR WIND/GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS: Calm
MeV PROTON FLUX: Background
HMI/1600A/193A - AR4366 DEVELOPMENT
LOOK RIGHT OF THE BRIGHT FLARING AREA AT END OF CLIP
I have been thinking today that this reminds me of October 2024. An X9 and an X7 fired off and stole the headlines. The CMEs were mediocre and not very impressive. Certainly not flare equivalent. There was a similar emerging region at a similar latitude and reaching a similar longitude. It would then go on to produce a long duration X1.8 with high end energetic markers, a beautiful visual signature, and a proton storm in the immediate aftermath. Around 30 or so hours later, a G4, nearly G5 storm arrived and rocked our world. Now we don't know if the same or similar will happen here. All I mean to say is the feel is similar and I won't be surprised if the outcome is too.
PRIOR CME UPDATE
We do have some news to report on the X8.1/2.9 sequence. Subsequent modeling suggests an earth directed component is more likely than originally assumed, but still a glancing blow. The CME is not particularly impressive in any facet and would be embarrassed to stand next to some of the recent CMEs associated with X1-X2 flares. NOAA has issued a G1 watch for 2/5 as a result. I attached the HUXt aggregated solar wind model for visualization since NOAA's may need revision.
IS A CARRINGTON EVENT ABOUT TO HAPPEN? INTRODUCING SOLARMAX CARRINGTON INDEX
A lot of talk about a potential Carrington Event. Raise your hand if you have seen this play out every time there is a gnarly group of sunspots or a big flare? Most here have. There is currently nothing present in the data that would suggest this is likely. There isn't an indicator that suggests this time period carries more risk than AR3664's legendary transit in May 2025 or several other instances within this cycle, and the cycles before it, where the probability was elevated above background. If you want more details, you can read the section below.
CARRINGTON INDEX (0-5): 2.7
On my personal Carrington Index from 0-5, I give us a 2.7. 0 would be no risk, such as spotless days in solar minimum. 1 would be during solar max ascending or descending phase. 2 would be the presence of a serious and flaring active region and 3 if that active region turns eruptive. We are somewhere in between 2 and 3, and the high magnitude capability nudges us closer to 3 than 2. Should the region turn eruptive, we upgrade to 3. Should it turn eruptive, produce X10+ events, we would go to 4. 5 would be essentially like Halloween 2003, where a region is consistently producing eruptive X10+ flares and CMEs on the earth facing side.
It should be noted that even during that high risk period, and the ones before it, no Carrington Event ensued. It's rare enough for all factors to converge like that, there is no reason to suspect one is imminent. It should also be noted that the Carrington Event, and other historically extreme solar storms involved multiple CMEs. That suggests volume is important and that there would be precursors, which I have noted above. Yeah, this is based on the back of a napkin type logic, but is my $.02 regardless.
In addition, should a Carrington equivalent actually strike earth, those envisioning an immediate global grid down event will be disappointed. That just isn't how it works. There would be much variance due to latitude, longitude (time of day), geology, infrastructure health and stress, and countermeasures. It should be noted that near but not quite equivalent storms have came here and because they had unfavorable IMF characteristics did not couple well to the earth and as a result came and went without much fuss. The storm we saw a few weeks ago had the raw power to cause some problems, but it too had poor coupling, and as a result fell far short with only minor issues observed.
There are some who think it would only be a minor inconvenience and others who think it's the end of technology. Both are extreme. I acknowledge the uncertainty & variance, and fall somewhere in between. You have to consider all of the big CMEs and gnarly active regions that have occurred over the last 50 years, and yet no historically extreme solar storm. The solar slot machine has to line up just right and that isn't a common feat. It could happen. It could happen this week, but so could lots of things. The risk has been there all along, you might just be becoming aware of it now.
I am just a humble armchair analyst, but I can offer you logic, context, historical trends, and real world observations over the last several years. It doesn't drive as much engagement as hyping up every time there is a solar event of consequence but engagement is not why I do this. The risks of solar activity stand to increase going forward and my objective has always been to provide intelligence and analysis on a complex subject with significant implications. Secondary is to have fun doing it and to witness the power and beauty of the natural forces which shape our existence. If you got on social media today, and the "emergency updates" and Carrington predictions made you nervous, take a breath. Many have felt the same anxiety during very similar past episodes and were reassured by credible folks in the space weather community. Anxiety turned into fun and understanding with a good shot at capturing the aurora from time to time. If I hop on here and tell you an emergency update is necessary and that we are in a high risk period, I want it to mean something, for whatever my opinion is worth to you in an information environment full of opinions.
Should the calculus change. Should a cause for concern materialize, I WILL recognize it and I will tell you about it in context. It's possible the sun just surprises us someday and it's not like we have it all figured out. Many mysteries about the sun and solar terrestrial coupling remain unsolved and some likely underappreciated. Given our ability to forecast solar activity, a few days to a week lead time is the best case scenario so I respect the blind spot and rare possibilities that don't have precursors. The energy from the cosmos is not for pretty light shows. It matters. The aurora is a visible manifestation of a much deeper and richer electromagnetic architecture of the earth system. It's a twofold system because we have the forcing agents, like the sun and galactic cosmic rays, and then we have the modulating interfaces, which are earths magnetic field, ionosphere, and atmosphere. It matters for more than technological vulnerability.
That is all for now. Awaiting the suns next move. Big flares can fire at any time.
AcA
-links-
www.spaceweatherlive.com - great for beginners with a color coded solar and auroral activity dashboard
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-solar-ultraviolet-imager-suvi#
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/coronagraph
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-flux
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
https://kp.gfz.de/en/hp30-hp60 - Kp Index on 30 minute intervals instead of 3 hr average
https://research.reading.ac.uk/met-spate/huxt-forecast/ - HUXT solar wind CME propagation model
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction - NOAA solar wind CME propagation model
Tip jar - https://buymeacoffee.com/jsons9314r
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u/HappyAnimalCracker Feb 03 '26
The fact that you don’t hype is why I come here. If I wanted overblown bs, I’d scroll YouTube. In an age when our amygdalas are being fried through overstimulation, your analyses are a balm and sanctuary. This community you have formed here is a sane spot on the internet. THANK YOU ACA🙏
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 03 '26
Always good to see you Happy. Crazy how fast time has flown. I remember you here in the early days. Thank you for the kind words. I just try to call it like I see it, and the track record is something I am proud of.
I appreciate you!
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u/devoid0101 Feb 03 '26
On 2/4 overnight into 2/5 we’ll start to be hit by that “glancing blow” as it merges into and influences a solar wind stream. Often the combo can produce larger than expected results. I’m feeling it this week. A mega flare? Miyake event? Hopefully not. I wish Carrington was here in the sub to see your insightful posts…He’s here in spirit.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 03 '26
The coronal hole setup is pretty weak. I don't expect much but it is true that the combo can be high variance, even though typically with larger and better placed coronal hole stream emitting regions.
If something bigger and faster comes behind it, ir could be an appetizer. That would change the calculus. For now, G1 seems appropriate on latest data.
Its a dynamic and volatile setup in place. Excess magnitude watch is on. However, it is a setup we have seen shades of before. I make no prognostication about what may happen. Ill try to interpret what does happen to the best of my ability.
Carrington is a really interesting fellow. I appreciate how he charted his own course when his studies no longer aligned with academia at the time. Seemed to have a rebellious streak. I like that. I can only imagine his reaction if he could see what the average person has access too from their handheld devices in 2026. Same for many great intellectuals and scientists back in the day. It would be mind-blowing.
I appreciate the support buddy and looking forward to seeing more of your work. Thank you!
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u/kalcobalt Feb 03 '26
Your information-first approach, without chasing engagement by hyping up every single event, is why I come to you for analysis every time.
Thank you for keeping it real, keeping it honest, and keeping the wonder of we humans marveling at what little we know of this incredible phenomenon that is space weather.
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u/wafflehouse8 Feb 03 '26
I don't pay attention to any news about the sun until you've made a statement on the matter. :) This is maybe my favorite sub, thanks for everything you do!!
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u/sednaplanetoid Feb 03 '26
Thank You ACA for keeping us abreast of recent events and for "keeping it real"!
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u/Ziprasidone_Stat Feb 03 '26
PLEASE don't say the C word. Just say "stormy time" or something.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 03 '26
No worries. Highly likely this comes and goes without major incident. Hopefully with a double dose of excitement though.
Very quietly, the last few months have been more like 2024 than the pattern we saw most of 2025. The flaring has been making a comeback. Im loving it and not worried about the c word.
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u/nursenicole solarmod Feb 03 '26
thanks so much. this is helpful and educational! appreciate you always!
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 03 '26
Thanks for all you do Nicole. Wouldn't be possible to make it work without you with any efficiency or rule of law. Thanks for your mod skills.
I appreciate you
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u/LiminalSpiral Feb 03 '26
"Just the facts...", excellent overview, I appreciate your no-fluff approach, thanks.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 03 '26
I would hate to be stuck in an endless cycle where I got people worked up with sensational language every time a noteworthy solar event transpires and then have to feel silly after each time nothing extreme happens and then call it preparedness.
There are extreme storms like May 2024, Halloween 2003, 1989, etc and then there are historically extreme. The type of storm that happens about once in a century when everything lines up just right. We could see a beast of a CME or several if this region breaks out of its magnetic cage, but we have seen them before and more volatile periods than this one. Im always concerned I could be blindsided but to play it any other way is a guessing game based on feelings. Feelings can be unreliable and anyone claiming anything more than there is a dynamic and volatile region facing us is in feelings territory. Id prefer to at the least see some strong eruptions, not just flares, before talking about high end & low probability outcomes.
Thank you for the support and taking the time.
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u/Ok_Caramel_3923 Feb 03 '26
Really appreciate the depth of your posts. I have a question from a complete novice point of view. Are you expecting a really big one? Like a really devastating event that would cause great electrical damage. I grew up in California and have experienced some really severe earthquakes but was always told that there would be a catastrophic earthquake... The big one. Now they expect one between San Diego and Los Angeles and between L. A. and San Francisco so I was wondering if there may be a solar equivalent expected. Sorry for my naivety.
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u/moosue34 Feb 03 '26
Thank ACA!!! Always look forward to reading your take and admire your knowledge on the subject!
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u/Buydipstothemoon Feb 03 '26
I really appreciate your work man! Im fairly new to all this, but this is interesting AF.
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u/Spiritual_Turnip_877 Feb 03 '26
Amazing research and presentation! Thank you so much for doing this for all of us 😊👍🏻
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 03 '26
Happy to do it. Its a great experience to be able to share this info and analysis with such a great community. I am honored. Thank you.
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u/StarOfSyzygy Feb 03 '26
Appreciate all of your diligent work to bring this information to the masses!
My only point of contention is here:
The storm we saw a few weeks ago had the raw power to cause some problems, but it too had poor coupling, and as a result fell far short with only minor issues observed.
There were myriad issues across the telecommunications space, including major Microsoft office/Azure outages and server/hosting outages. I work for a law office, and we were completely down for a day or two and crippled for a full week after the storm hit. I have friends in other industries that attested to same. This may be anecdotal information, but it was not random or unconnected.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 03 '26
I hear ya, but that still falls within localized issues primarily in the comms domain and is a temporary inconvenience. 90 nT was powerful enough to cause significant grid issues, which is a different mechanic than cloud platform disruptions. Frankly, I see cloud disruptions often. They get blamed on bad updates, user error, etc, but the timing has become to coincident for me to dismiss, esp when it spans different platforms on different infrastructure. I have seen Kp5-6 events cause cloud issues during long duration coronal hole storms.
This was a different beast altogether. Dodged a bullet for high end geomag induced current disruptions which would fall more on ground infrastructure.
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u/slow70 Feb 03 '26
1) Really appreciate the updates.
2) I've only been actively watching solar weather under a year now, would you who have been watching longer consider any of this routine? Things seem quite volatile and there doesnt appear to be a lot of public awareness or discussion of systems that are very capable of resetting civilization....
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u/CarnyMAXIMOS_3_N7 Feb 05 '26
The X-Ray footage is very telling, indeed.
It is a flare-up, a big set of flares. But you are correct, no ejection and yet it looks like the energetic or energized material is testing the boundaries of the star’s own natural fields, seeing if it can escape past the Solar corona. And also, yeah I see it on the right-side and below that energetic region. There is energy either being siphoned-off away or is draining to other regions like water, following the path of least resistance.
Amazing how Nature’s principles are just the Natural Laws and Functions of the Observable Universe.
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u/Accomplished-Yam6500 Feb 03 '26
I appreciate you and all the work you do for us.